Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[tommers]

But no-deal would potentially make the tories unelectable for years

I think the key word there is potentially.

People in this country have a disturbing record of voting Tory whatever the fuck they do to them.

 

[Brainaddict]

Yeah, maybe you're right. There are thousands of people on twitter baying for a no-deal brexit. I think it might be what psychologists would call a compulsion to repeat their traumas.

 

[killer b]

It's a mistake to mistake the obsessions of people on twitter for anything other than the obsessions of people on twitter tbh.

 

[Ranbay]

I see and hear no deal cunts everywhere, online, on the radio, and in the pubs.

 

[brogdale]

I see and hear no deal cunts everywhere, online, on the radio, and in the pubs.

And roughly half are likely to be able to correctly articulate what it means.

 

[chilango]

I hear a fair few people IRL advocating "no deal" there's an element of macho posturing, mixed with a lot of over anologising (is that a word? It should be) but also plenty of weary cynicism and a desire for a clean break/fresh start etc. "No deal" seems to be quite a broad church ime.

 

[killer b]

I think in most cases, no deal is just shorthand for 'jesus christ just get on with it you cunts'

 

[danny la rouge]

I meant to like killer b’s post there, but for some reason it jumped and liked chilango’s instead. But you know what? I like them both.

 

[chilango]

...and I'll make this point but again, because it'll soon become crucial.

Brexit, if it happens, will be used as cover for all kinds of fresh assaults on us. And the opposition to this is going to get sucked into a "It's Brexit's fault" impotence and play right into the enemy's hands.

 

[two sheds]

May rejected Corbyn's recent proposal because it wouldn't leave us free to negotiate other trade deals, so no deal would seem the ideal solution for her.

 

[chilango]

I think in most cases, no deal is just shorthand for 'jesus christ just get on with it you cunts'

Definitely.

Just as the vote for Brexit itself was often shorthand for "Jesus Christ ..you cunts"

 

[chilango]

Definitely.

Just as the vote for Brexit itself was often shorthand for "Jesus Christ ..you cunts"

As in fact were a lot of Remain votes.

 

[chilango]

In fact if you fairly distilled voting motivation down to:

"No fucking way do I want those cunts in charge"

You've managed to encapsulate Leave, Remain and the non-voters motivation all at once.

I thinks there's hope for unity yet....

 

[killer b]

Propose to have 'fuck no!' as an option on all ballot papers to improve voter turnout.

 

[chilango]

The infamous "Ron" of student union elections.

 

[Kaka Tim]

"no deal" will explode the tory party as well. And is anathema to most of their backers - i.e corporate finance, big money generally and sundry other powerful elements of the establishment.

 

[Pickman's model]

"no deal" will explode the tory party as well. And is anathema to most of their backers - i.e corporate finance, big money generally and sundry other powerful elements of the establishment.

tbh it looks like they'll muddle their way to no-deal, i don't think that this is something which can be sorted out through careful influence from most of their backers.

 

[Pickman's model]

May rejected Corbyn's recent proposal because it wouldn't leave us free to negotiate other trade deals, so no deal would seem the ideal solution for her.

from my pov there's a much better and indeed more permanent solution for her.

 

[philosophical]

No deal means a new kind of border on the island of Ireland sooner or later.

 

[SpookyFrank]

May rejected Corbyn's recent proposal because it wouldn't leave us free to negotiate other trade deals, so no deal would seem the ideal solution for her.

She rejected it because she can't be seen doing business with a commie terrorist.

 

[SpookyFrank]

No deal means a new kind of border on the island of Ireland sooner or later.

Keeping up I see, well done.

 

[kabbes]

Well, no deal certainly solves the Irish border problem, for a certain value of “solve”

 

[ska invita]

I read this week that WTO rules are very similar to EU rules in terms of state aid etc, the main difference is the court governing the process is slower to act.
?

The Tory party appears to be unexploded in your third option. That's got to be what they'll go for then.

No Deal explodes the Tories too, perhaps more than the first two options

 

[belboid]

I read this week that WTO rules are very similar to EU rules in terms of state aid etc, the main difference is the court governing the process is slower to act.

hmm, not really. There are similarities, neither is keen on SA, but the WTO is generally more retroactive whereas the EU is proactive,.

World Trade Organisation Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures
In addition to EU state aid rules, the UK is party to the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. Under the Agreement, some subsidies are prohibited outright while the rest are ‘actionable’ – meaning that the subsidy is allowed, but other countries can take certain actions if the subsidy harms them. Countries can protect their industries by taxing imports of the subsidised good – this is known as imposing a ‘countervailing duty’.

Although the definition of a ‘subsidy’ under the WTO regime is broadly similar to ‘state aid’ in EU law, the EU rules are a lot more stringent than the WTO rules on subsidies. The key differences are:

• The default position in WTO rules is that subsidies are generally allowed, while EU rules consider subsidies to be generally illegal.
• WTO rules apply to goods, but EU rules include services too.
• EU rules are applied prospectively (i.e. legality must be proved before awarding any support), while WTO rules are only reactive, and are only triggered if a member country lodges a complaint.
• WTO rules rely on state-to-state enforcement while under EU rules there are remedies available to businesses and individuals.
• Under EU rules, a business has to repay illegal state aid. There is no such mechanism to remove anti-competitive effects under the WTO rules.
• In case the UK exits the EU without a formal agreement, the WTO rules on subsidies would still apply.

Commons Briefing papers SN06775
EU State Aid rules and WTO Subsidies Agreement - Commons Library briefing - UK Parliament

 

[DexterTCN]

Are you trying to get people to back no deal now? What's good for the CBI is good for the proles eh?

No deal is great for me. I'm against brexit because of the harm it will do but E&W voted for it so they should get it, the people have spoken, hell mend them.

 

[CRI]

I see and hear no deal cunts everywhere, online, on the radio, and in the pubs.

Don't forget quite a few of the "people" on social media pushing extolling the virtues of No Deal are paid bots/trolls/shills. Easy to spot them, but people still engage with them, which lends "legitimacy" to their message - messages amplified as well by real people, whether it's because they "just want to get on with it" (don't shilly shally with possible reprieves or pardons, just hang me now!) and probably have no clue or are in denial about what "no deal" will entail, "what, I thought it would be same as before with just fewer dark people and people who don't talk English."

This is I don't think another vote is the answer. They still haven't prosecuted most of those involved in rigging the last referendum. There's still masses of cash being pumped into micro targeting "No Deal" on social media and no one knows where that's coming from. And too few people seem to have any clue what No Deal actually means - still fingers in their ears, dismissing it as project fear as businesses and resources bleed out from the UK. It's just a fucking mess and we're all pretty screwed whatever happens.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I read this week that WTO rules are very similar to EU rules in terms of state aid etc, the main difference is the court governing the process is slower to act.
?



No Deal explodes the Tories too, perhaps more than the first two options

Aye, don't see the Remain wing of the Tory party going along with that. If it got close to it I think they'd support Yvette Cooper's A50 extension amendment thing.

 

[Ranbay]

Don't forget quite a few of the "people" on social media pushing extolling the virtues of No Deal are paid bots/trolls/shills. Easy to spot them, but people still engage with them, which lends "legitimacy" to their message - messages amplified as well by real people, whether it's because they "just want to get on with it" (don't shilly shally with possible reprieves or pardons, just hang me now!) and probably have no clue or are in denial about what "no deal" will entail, "what, I thought it would be same as before with just fewer dark people and people who don't talk English."

This is I don't think another vote is the answer. They still haven't prosecuted most of those involved in rigging the last referendum. There's still masses of cash being pumped into micro targeting "No Deal" on social media and no one knows where that's coming from. And too few people seem to have any clue what No Deal actually means - still fingers in their ears, dismissing it as project fear as businesses and resources bleed out from the UK. It's just a fucking mess and we're all pretty screwed whatever happens.

I'm on a few forums with real people who constantly spout "NO DEAL! out now and on WTO terms" i left one forum becuse they are all fucking idiots.

 

[CRI]

No deal is great for me. I'm against brexit because of the harm it will do but E&W voted for it so they should get it, the people have spoken, hell mend them.

On that point, I've been shocked how many people who were die hard "no" supporters in the 2014 referendum who are now calling for Scottish Independence. I guess even if you're not a nationalist, it sounds a better alternative to the shit that's most likely in store otherwise.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Don't forget quite a few of the "people" on social media pushing extolling the virtues of No Deal are paid bots/trolls/shills. Easy to spot them, but people still engage with them, which lends "legitimacy" to their message - messages amplified as well by real people, whether it's because they "just want to get on with it" (don't shilly shally with possible reprieves or pardons, just hang me now!) and probably have no clue or are in denial about what "no deal" will entail, "what, I thought it would be same as before with just fewer dark people and people who don't talk English."

This is I don't think another vote is the answer. They still haven't prosecuted most of those involved in rigging the last referendum. There's still masses of cash being pumped into micro targeting "No Deal" on social media and no one knows where that's coming from. And too few people seem to have any clue what No Deal actually means - still fingers in their ears, dismissing it as project fear as businesses and resources bleed out from the UK. It's just a fucking mess and we're all pretty screwed whatever happens.

Here we go, more bot conspiraloonery