Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[likesfish]

a cruel and unusual punishment I approve.

I think a lot of people who voted for Brexit are happy for the UK to crash out being poor and or old their used to being in the shit its not like they think the EU did anything for them even if they were Cornish or Welsh who got a lot of cash from the EU

 

[littlebabyjesus]

a cruel and unusual punishment I approve.

I think a lot of people who voted for Brexit are happy for the UK to crash out being poor and or old their used to being in the shit its not like they think the EU did anything for them even if they were Cornish or Welsh who got a lot of cash from the EU

In addition to the hard-core nationalist vote who seem determined to do a brexit next year whatever the circumstances out of principle, there is a sizeable chunk of people who voted for Brexit who are older and own their own homes or are in secure-tenancy housing. They're either nearly or already retired, and in the short term they're unlikely to see much of an effect from any kind of brexit. In the medium term, they would be hit by rising inflation but not much else. In the long term, they're dead. It is notable that there appears to be a strong pattern in the vote that people with less at stake tended to vote leave, and they're still the people less likely to be bothered by negative consequences. Where those people feel they've been shat on so have nothing to lose, I have sympathy. Where they feel secure in their own situations so have nothing to lose, I don't.

 

[Pickman's model]

In addition to the hard-core nationalist vote who seem determined to do a brexit next year whatever the circumstances out of principle, there is a sizeable chunk of people who voted for Brexit who are older and own their own homes or are in secure-tenancy housing. They're either nearly or already retired, and in the short term they're unlikely to see much of an effect from any kind of brexit. In the medium term, they would be hit by rising inflation but not much else. In the long term, they're dead. It is notable that there appears to be a strong pattern in the vote that people with less at stake tended to vote leave, and they're still the people less likely to be bothered by negative consequences. Where those people feel they've been shat on so have nothing to lose, I have sympathy. Where they feel secure in their own situations so have nothing to lose, I don't.

in the long term we're all dead

in the short term, if we go out without a deal, i think it's fair to say everyone will notice through immediately higher prices, the country going into recession, a dearth of care workers etc.

 

[Ranbay]

In addition to the hard-core nationalist vote who seem determined to do a brexit next year whatever the circumstances out of principle, there is a sizeable chunk of people who voted for Brexit who are older and own their own homes or are in secure-tenancy housing. They're either nearly or already retired, and in the short term they're unlikely to see much of an effect from any kind of brexit. In the medium term, they would be hit by rising inflation but not much else. In the long term, they're dead. It is notable that there appears to be a strong pattern in the vote that people with less at stake tended to vote leave, and they're still the people less likely to be bothered by negative consequences. Where those people feel they've been shat on so have nothing to lose, I have sympathy. Where they feel secure in their own situations so have nothing to lose, I don't.

wine will go up.....

 

[Winot]

Some confusing results in this poll.

the public is so set against “no deal” it would prefer to remain in the EU than leave without a divorce agreement. By 53 percent to 47 percent, voters say they would prefer Britain stayed in the EU than leave without a deal.

When asked whether they would prefer to be in control of immigration or keep close economic ties with Europe, immigration wins by 60 percent to 40 percent.

Some 65 percent of voters value “more flexibility” for the U.K. to set its own laws and regulations over 35 percent who prefer “more investment and trade with the European Union.”

Even starker, British voters would prefer (by 59 percent to 41 percent) to have the power to strike independent trade deals even if doing so means a hard border in Ireland

 

[Winot]

I suppose that's pretty much in line with HMG's position - we want to do a deal but at the same time we want to leave the SM and the CU.

 

[Pickman's model]

wine will go up.....

whine's been on the up since the spring of 2016

 

[Ranbay]

whine's been on the up since the spring of 2016

Red white and Blue Whine?

 

[Pickman's model]

Red white and Blue Whine?

all sorts of whine

 

[gentlegreen]

My local Tesco hasn't stocked drinkable French wine for yonks now, and Aldi's range has shrunk considerably.

 

[pocketscience]

In addition to the hard-core nationalist vote who seem determined to do a brexit next year whatever the circumstances out of principle, there is a sizeable chunk of people who voted for Brexit who are older and own their own homes or are in secure-tenancy housing. They're either nearly or already retired, and in the short term they're unlikely to see much of an effect from any kind of brexit. In the medium term, they would be hit by rising inflation but not much else. In the long term, they're dead. It is notable that there appears to be a strong pattern in the vote that people with less at stake tended to vote leave, and they're still the people less likely to be bothered by negative consequences. Where those people feel they've been shat on so have nothing to lose, I have sympathy. Where they feel secure in their own situations so have nothing to lose, I don't.

errr, aint that what all democratic votes are for?
The remainers using the "threat to their secure situation" as a justification for a 2nd ref get a free pass, do they? Why does it apply to one group and not the other

 

[brogdale]

whine's been on the up since the spring of 2016

Sure has

 

[Riklet]

My local Tesco hasn't stocked drinkable French wine for yonks now, and Aldi's range has shrunk considerably.

That's bullshit (I am not denying this might become true in the medium term, however). Supermarket wine is about as good as it's ever been in the UK. Unless you've been to 5 different stores it's hardly a fair comparison either.

Go for the Tesco finest own brand ones, anything over 6-7 quid is generally going to be decent. Especially cotes du rhone, languedoc, baujelais, pais d'oc.... and Finest Médoc is a very good bordeaux too for 8 quid. All the wine stuff happens 1 year behind current events anyway, the contracts and deals were already agreed last year. What is affecting wine perhaps now is not Brexit, exactly, but the currency fluctuations between GBP/Euro. And while some will maintain this is purely to do with Brexit.... clearly there are plenty of other reasons the UK's currency might not be turning heads as much as 10 years ago. The sheer volume of wine still being shipped to Britain from the EU is absolutely enormous, in any case, and I don't see that changing drastically quite yet.

 

[Poi E]

Give up drinking and confound the fuckers.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Unfortunately, Blair is smarter and most astute than most of the present cabinet combined. He is still a detestable fucker though

I would say there are numerous U75 posters who could comfortably outsmart the entire cabinet tbh.

 

[Pickman's model]

I would say there are numerous U75 posters who could comfortably outsmart the entire cabinet tbh.

it is hard to think of anyone not in paid politics, in fact, who could not outsmart the entire cabinet.

 

[Pickman's model]

That's bullshit (I am not denying this might become true in the medium term, however). Supermarket wine is about as good as it's ever been in the UK. Unless you've been to 5 different stores it's hardly a fair comparison either.

Go for the Tesco finest own brand ones, anything over 6-7 quid is generally going to be decent. Especially cotes du rhone, languedoc, baujelais, pais d'oc.... and Finest Médoc is a very good bordeaux too for 8 quid. All the wine stuff happens 1 year behind current events anyway, the contracts and deals were already agreed last year. What is affecting wine perhaps now is not Brexit, exactly, but the currency fluctuations between GBP/Euro. And while some will maintain this is purely to do with Brexit.... clearly there are plenty of other reasons the UK's currency might not be turning heads as much as 10 years ago. The sheer volume of wine still being shipped to Britain from the EU is absolutely enormous, in any case, and I don't see that changing drastically quite yet.

i wouldn't buy wine from tescos if it was the last offie in the uk

 

[paolo]

a peoples vote, as requested by people with peerages and mansions

What would be undecromatic about getting people to vote?

If they feel the same way, same outcome, double confirmation - job done, end of.

 

[paolo]

Sure has

View attachment 151773

Lib Dem’s are invisible and irrelevant. The idea this all about them is moronic. Nobody gives a shit about them.

 

[DotCommunist]

What would be undecromatic about getting people to vote?

If they feel the same way, same outcome, double confirmation - job done, end of.

one of the reasons the EU is often criticized from the left is for its democratic deficit so to see its chief supporters in the uk asking for a re-run to get a result they are happier with, well, you can see how it looks can't you.

that said I do understand the reasons another vote seems completely correct from the other side. The leave campaign(s) were shady. The full threat of a dry bumming from the EU hadn't been made quite as plain as it is being made now. etc.

But thats it, the hope of remain getting a win on a second reff is the idea that people will have been cowed into acquiescence on the grounds that leaving the EU is to terrible a cost. Remain or else.

At this point tho I just don't think a second vote is coming. Well, not before March anyway, after that who can say.

 

[paolo]

one of the reasons the EU is often criticized from the left is for its democratic deficit so to see its chief supporters in the uk asking for a re-run to get a result they are happier with, well, you can see how it looks can't you.

that said I do understand the reasons another vote seems completely correct from the other side. The leave campaign(s) were shady. The full threat of a dry bumming from the EU hadn't been made quite as plain as it is being made now. etc.

But thats it, the hope of remain getting a win on a second reff is the idea that people will have been cowed into acquiescence on the grounds that leaving the EU is to terrible a cost. Remain or else.

At this point tho I just don't think a second vote is coming. Well, not before March anyway, after that who can say.

I don't think a second vote is coming either.

The numbers have drifted a little towards remain, but it's tiny points.

I'd argue that it's not asking the same question again (we know more now) but the case for doing it - in terms of people asking - isn't compelling (yet, and indeed may never be).

If you accept that the chances of a second referendum are thin (most seem to) then there's no being cowed. It's going to run it's course.

We don't know what people's rights will be - being able to live and work in each other's countries. The original Brexit promise was that would be stopped. I hope that part fails.

 

[Poi E]

England just declaring independence and sorting all this bullshit out would be a fresh start.

 

[brogdale]

Lib Dem’s are invisible and irrelevant. The idea this all about them is moronic. Nobody gives a shit about them.

You have a point.
This pic was, of course, intended to lighten proceedings, but may reflect my own personal circumstances that diverge from the generality you describe. (I'm one of the few Urbz who have the misfortune of living in a LD controlled LA and in a constituency with a LD MP...and not any LD MP but the high priest of the remainians himself; Tom Brake).

 

[Pickman's model]

You have a point.
This pic was, of course, intended to lighten proceedings, but may reflect my own personal circumstances that diverge from the generality you describe. (I'm one of the few Urbz who have the misfortune of living in a LD controlled LA and in a constituency with a LD MP...and not any LD MP but the high priest of the remainians himself; Tom Brake).

Have a pity like

 

[Pickman's model]

England just declaring independence and sorting all this bullshit out would be a fresh start.

A whole new clusterfuck

 

[Pickman's model]

one of the reasons the EU is often criticized from the left is for its democratic deficit so to see its chief supporters in the uk asking for a re-run to get a result they are happier with, well, you can see how it looks can't you.

that said I do understand the reasons another vote seems completely correct from the other side. The leave campaign(s) were shady. The full threat of a dry bumming from the EU hadn't been made quite as plain as it is being made now. etc.

But thats it, the hope of remain getting a win on a second reff is the idea that people will have been cowed into acquiescence on the grounds that leaving the EU is to terrible a cost. Remain or else.

At this point tho I just don't think a second vote is coming. Well, not before March anyway, after that who can say.

Referenda take six months in this country so that little way out is off the cards. Plus there is no guarantee the remainers would win. It would be to me no surprise if come march may addresses the nation to say that having peered over the cliff into the abyss of no deal, in the national interest the UK will remain in the eu since there is now no more time for negotiations and she will not utterly tank the economy for a difference of four percentage points

 

[Yossarian]

A whole new clusterfuck

At least all those 'Take Back Control' signs could be recycled.

 

[Poi E]

A whole new clusterfuck

There'll be those who say that little old England is too poor and too stupid to make it on its own, but just ignore the Unionists.

 

[danny la rouge]

one of the reasons the EU is often criticized from the left is for its democratic deficit so to see its chief supporters in the uk asking for a re-run to get a result they are happier with, well, you can see how it looks can't you.

that said I do understand the reasons another vote seems completely correct from the other side. The leave campaign(s) were shady. The full threat of a dry bumming from the EU hadn't been made quite as plain as it is being made now. etc.

But thats it, the hope of remain getting a win on a second reff is the idea that people will have been cowed into acquiescence on the grounds that leaving the EU is to terrible a cost. Remain or else.

At this point tho I just don't think a second vote is coming. Well, not before March anyway, after that who can say.

In addition, although I have absolutely no objection in principle to a referendum on a supplementary question (specifically in this case, on a choice between ‘accept the eventual deal’ on the table or ‘reject the deal’ [resulting in a no deal Brexit]), I don’t think the campaign to have a second referendum is being run with that as its honest objective. I therefore am sceptical to the point of opposing a second referendum.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Any plausible brexit deal that may manages to cobble together and get accepted by the EU will clearly offer no benefits whatsoever over the UK's previous position - and in many ways will be worse.
The other option is crashing out with no deal - which would be very damaging all round.
As this becomes clear i think the whatever moral/democratic mandate that the referendum had will be put under severe stress. Because nobody - bar a handful of brexit headbangers who want to jump off a cliff edge - want either of those options.
I still think that a 2nd ref is where we will end up within a year - via all sorts of meltdowns and breakdowns and constitutional crises.