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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
    362
A remain vote would not have united the tory party. Far from it.

I think you're wrong - they've been split on the issue of Europe for 20 years but they've got on with smashing us fine. Now they have to "do a Brexit" they're at each others throats.
 
I think the key difference is the Leave vote has completely paralysed and split the ruling class and their political representatives whereas a vote to Remain would have united them.
Fair. Does it outweigh the direction & momentum that Tory Brexiteers will manage to establish before there's any chance to repurpose the situation?
 
Fair. Does it outweigh the direction & momentum that Tory Brexiteers will manage to establish before there's any chance to repurpose the situation?

What direction and momentum?

I refer you to my earlier questions to Paulo!
 
What direction and momentum?

I refer you to my earlier questions to Paulo!
Opaque & ambiguous as it may be, everything that the present government sets in motion with regards to Brexit, and the interests it serves & enriches, both as we go and in the long term.

Some of it can be easily unpicked, some of it not so much.
 
Opaque & ambiguous as it may be, everything that the present government sets in motion with regards to Brexit, and the interests it serves & enriches, both as we go and in the long term.

Some of it can be easily unpicked, some of it not so much.

Such as?

You guys must see your answers to all these questions are vague at best!
 
Such as?

You guys must see your answers to all these questions are vague at best!
He's been dispatched for the moment of course, but David Davis's pamphlet on brexit, produced just after the referendum as he glowed in its outcome and a major reason why he was appointed brexit minister, outlines some of the ideas. Trade deals around the world, each specifically tailored, with varying standards applied. A race to the bottom, in other words, undercutting of the EU wherever possible to gain an edge with the US, China and elsewhere. Liam Fox, who still lingers, has very similar ambitions. That is the vision of a particular faction of 'transatlantic' Tory Brexiteers, those actually ideologically wedded to the idea. Such sets of bilateral or multilateral agreements may or may not be easy to unpick.
 
Such as?

You guys must see your answers to all these questions are vague at best!
Well, we don't really know yet, do we - the black comedy of trying to dissect the inscrutable. We could wait for something to crystallise, probably some distance into the retrospective, or we could guess. If I had to gamble then I suspect I wouldn't go too far wrong looking at a few areas; enabling the general erosion of protections against capital, and the enrichment of specific, prepared individuals most likely acting against national interests, kind of like a modern organised equivalent of Soros shorting the pound.

It certainly is vague, but that cuts both ways.
 
He's been dispatched for the moment of course, but David Davis's pamphlet on brexit, produced just after the referendum as he glowed in its outcome and a major reason why he was appointed brexit minister, outlines some of the ideas. Trade deals around the world, each specifically tailored, with varying standards applied. A race to the bottom, in other words, undercutting of the EU wherever possible to gain an edge with the US, China and elsewhere. Liam Fox, who still lingers, has very similar ambitions. That is the vision of a particular faction of 'transatlantic' Tory Brexiteers, those actually ideologically wedded to the idea. Such sets of bilateral or multilateral agreements may or may not be easy to unpick.

1) His pamphlet is just fantasy land nonsense.

2) I don't know if you've noticed but I'm quite happy to have voted leave because I'm not interested in unpicking things - I'm quite happy to rip them apart - from EU treaties to trade deals.
 
Well, we don't really know yet, do we - the black comedy of trying to dissect the inscrutable. We could wait for something to crystallise, probably some distance into the retrospective, or we could guess. If I had to gamble then I suspect I wouldn't go too far wrong looking at a few areas; enabling the general erosion of protections against capital, and the enrichment of specific, prepared individuals most likely acting against national interests, kind of like a modern organised equivalent of Soros shorting the pound.

It certainly is vague, but that cuts both ways.

You don't really know. I don't see any great uncertainties :cool:
 
Who is arguing in good faith or otherwise? Since both blocs are shit I would say the onus is on 'her majesty's' lot to provide some politics. Miserable failing mediocraties that they are. Lets be honest the country is fucked if we rely on goodwill, friendship. In other words they say, lets extend this or that instead of being left out in the cold, except when a solution is never proposed, being left out in the cold is the result.

There's a complacency, that it will filter down, won't be that bad. The thing is, the only outcome of that that I can see is a 'worse off' economy. Nevertheless a more equal society with the key to their own future. More equal but less well off.

Now I know and understand this is a 'Tory Brexit', that caricature crooks like Rees-Mogg want us to get back in 'our place'. However, if we keep our politics and don't get sucked into their money making schemes we should be alright. By which I mean: a lot of things were better off economically yet somehow your venal Tory always profits. Because the upper middle class doff their bowler hats.

Which leads us to the bollocks idea that we have to go backwards. For whose benefit? BP, Tescos and banking merchants. Sorry, that is simply a case of handing your wages over to pay some unconscionable wanker. In other words the type who will wipe his shoes on your kids face if it puffs him up, puts him against you and makes him feel good.

So equality is very important.
 
1) His pamphlet is just fantasy land nonsense.

2) I don't know if you've noticed but I'm quite happy to have voted leave because I'm not interested in unpicking things - I'm quite happy to rip them apart - from EU treaties to trade deals.
It may be fantasy land nonsense but these are the wishlists of those now in power.

As for your point 2) that's fantasy land nonsense from someone not in power and with no prospect of achieving power. No plan. No idea of how to get from here to there. Head in the sand about the populist r/w nationalism that brexit actually represents and is enabling. Rotten empty politics that is prepared to see other people suffer in the name of vague abstraction and slogans. The left as useful idiots for the right.
 
Who is arguing in good faith or otherwise? Since both blocs are shit I would say the onus is on 'her majesty's' lot to provide some politics. Miserable failing mediocraties that they are. Lets be honest the country is fucked if we rely on goodwill, friendship. In other words they say, lets extend this or that instead of being left out in the cold, except when a solution is never proposed, being left out in the cold is the result.

There's a complacency, that it will filter down, won't be that bad. The thing is, the only outcome of that that I can see is a 'worse off' economy. Nevertheless a more equal society with the key to their own future. More equal but less well off.

Now I know and understand this is a 'Tory Brexit', that caricature crooks like Rees-Mogg want us to get back in 'our place'. However, if we keep our politics and don't get sucked into their money making schemes we should be alright. By which I mean: a lot of things were better off economically yet somehow your venal Tory always profits. Because the upper middle class doff their bowler hats.

Which leads us to the bollocks idea that we have to go backwards. For whose benefit? BP, Tescos and banking merchants. Sorry, that is simply a case of handing your wages over to pay some unconscionable wanker. In other words the type who will wipe his shoes on your kids face if it puffs him up, puts him against you and makes him feel good.

So equality is very important.
When you say her majesty's lot do you mean her majesty's government or her majesty's loyal opposition?
 
There seems to be a strange assumption here that whoever is in power at the time of negotiating brexit, gets to define the course of UK economic policy forever in eternity.

and it's not like the UK couldn't have been (a Junckeresque) corporate tax haven under the tories all the while in the EU.
 
The thing is, the only outcome of that that I can see is a 'worse off' economy. Nevertheless a more equal society with the key to their own future. More equal but less well off.
Is the plan that people become more equal because the good jobs leave these shores and we are left with shit ones?
 
Is the plan that people become more equal because the good jobs leave these shores and we are left with shit ones?

Immigrants are still going to be allowed in to do the good jobs. We are keeping the shit ones for ourselves.
 
Two posts in a few minutes that demonstrate just how far removed or insulated from the life of shit jobs that so many millions of people are forced to lead some remain types are. And that, in fact, this was one of the main drivers of the leave vote.

Isn't having future Tory governments free from the (admittedly fairly flimsy) restraints of EU employment law only going to make this worse?
 
Would you conversely say that a labour government free of the EU mandate restrictions on state aid and so on make life better for those in that position
 
Would you conversely say that a labour government free of the EU mandate restrictions on state aid and so on make life better for those in that position

I feel that every time the Tories get in they raze areas of ground that are difficult to reclaim. I'm worried that future Tory governments will be able to dismantle whatever they want. It's harder to rebuild consensus for laws (and institutions such as the NHS) than it is to attack them. If we look at post-1979 Britain, that's the direction things have moved in.

I take your point though. I know, for example, that it's the EU that stands in the way of rail nationalisation. I'm just scared of the Tories. More so than I am hopeful of the possibilities of future Labour Governments.
 
Shit jobs like what? Working in coffee shops? I thought we needed immigrants for those jobs.

Lovely progressive politics. These shit jobs just exist because that's the way it is, not because of any political choices.
Low productivity / low pay jobs. Of course policy plays a role. But I don't see how you fix things by making supply chains less efficient, and choking off investment (e.g. Japanese carmakers) which is predicated on our access to the Single Market. In fact it seems pretty clear that will make things worse...
 
I take your point though. I know, for example, that it's the EU that stands in the way of rail nationalisation. s.
The first thing that stands in the way of rail nationalisation is not having a government that wants to do it. Get that government and opinions vary as to what EU rules would or would not allow, and what could or could not be done in the name of national interest. Then there is the political angle to this quite aside from EU rules, in which countries that already have nationalised railways would find it difficult to insist on rules blocking it for the UK. The UK would not be in a powerless political position. But the whole thing is moot until you have a government that wants to do it.
 
The first thing that stands in the way of rail nationalisation is not having a government that wants to do it. Get that government and opinions vary as to what EU rules would or would not allow, and what could or could not be done in the name of national interest. Then there is the political angle to this quite aside from EU rules, in which countries that already have nationalised railways would find it difficult to insist on rules blocking it for the UK. The UK would not be in a powerless political position. But the whole thing is moot until you have a government that wants to do it.

Okay. You make a moot point. In the old British sense of the word.
 
I could imagine the UK actually doing OK out of trade deals post-brexit because countries that have a geopolitical opposition to the EU (Russia/the USA) and their many client states will offer favourable trade terms precisely to undermine the rump of the EU.
 
It may be fantasy land nonsense but these are the wishlists of those now in power.

As for your point 2) that's fantasy land nonsense from someone not in power and with no prospect of achieving power. No plan. No idea of how to get from here to there. Head in the sand about the populist r/w nationalism that brexit actually represents and is enabling. Rotten empty politics that is prepared to see other people suffer in the name of vague abstraction and slogans. The left as useful idiots for the right.

My entire point was your lack of plan, lack of perspective and lack of politics.

Some of us were ready for this. We've got experience of providing practical solidarity to migrants and refugees threatened with deportation. We've got experience of fighting to defend our terms and conditions. We've got experience of fighting to defend our services.

Nothing is gonna happen with Brexit - that's pretty clear. But it doesn't really matter because we have to do this stuff anyway.
 
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