Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Pickman's model]

My apologies, you said a few years of a hard border may focus thinking, you did not say it was a good idea, you were suggesting soething. I read you srong.
The hard border you seem to suggest works in the same way globally but I am not sure if does.
There are 'Beijing's wall type scenarios, there are geographical features, there are heavy fortification indeed quite a variety of hard borders.
Given the length of the Irish border, and the number of crossing points, how would the hard border you envisage work?

Badly

 

[kebabking]

...how would the hard border you envisage work?

probably with a fencing contractor feeling like he's won the lottery?

you do, because i want be certain, understand that if there is no agreement over how a 'frictionless' border might operate between the UK and EU on the island of Ireland, that it will be the Irish government, at the behest of EU rules, that will be enforcing that border, not the UK - don't you?

 

[kabbes]

My apologies, you said a few years of a hard border may focus thinking, you did not say it was a good idea, you were suggesting soething. I read you srong.
The hard border you seem to suggest works in the same way globally but I am not sure if does.
There are 'Beijing's wall type scenarios, there are geographical features, there are heavy fortification indeed quite a variety of hard borders.
Given the length of the Irish border, and the number of crossing points, how would the hard border you envisage work?

Do I need to be a border expert to believe that across the hundreds of hard borders in the world, there is an example of just one that can serve as an adequate model?

 

[philosophical]

You have repeatedly said that leave voters should sort it out. I can quote the posts if you wish. If you say that this does not mean getting involved in the negotiations (which is what needs to be sorted, since that is where we're at with Brexit), then you need to explain i) precisely what you think needs to be sorted by voters and ii) how they should sort it.

My reply to this is that the Irish border needs to be sorted out by brexit voters and the how is by suggesting a range of workabld and practical suggestions to choose from.

It was a response to your repeated demand for voters to sort it. Direct democracy is when the electorate is directly involved in the "sorting". The usual example is ancient Athens (although obviously slaves, women, etc were not counted). You seemed to imagine we had this instead of a representative democracy, which if you have read Edmund Burke you'll know does not allow for MPs to be seen even as delegates, but as people we empower to get on with it.

My reply is that the brexit vote was not for MP's but for, I dunno a concept and a practical process so the Burke principle is not the case in terms of the brexit referendum.

What is the point of this observation, though? Is it a version of the new liberal orthodoxy that only experts should be allowed to vote? That the electorate was not competent? That they did not read up on constitutional law before voting? If that's not what you're implying, then be specific. What does your observation mean in practical terms, since you seem to be demanding practicality.

My reply is that I think everybody should get a vote. I also think voters should take ownership of what they voted for. In the case of an MP if following experience of that MP they don't want them any more, then don't vote for them next time, in the case of brexit voters are (seemingly) stuck with their decision so they have a responsibility to follow it through.

Surely this is not the "sorting"? Are you expecting people to jump in a time machine and point out to the Leave Campaign the various governmental mishaps since the referendum? Of course you're not. So what?

Please enlighten us as to what you think the context in 2016 was.

My reply. I think the context of 2016 was a hatred of 'foreigners' largely. I also think voters might have been swayed by the allure of Farage, Boris and Gove so voted brexit in order to associate themselves with those people, that is what seems to have happened in 2016, brexit voters became allies of Boris Johnson because of what happened.

Yes, but there is no general election on the horizon. So now what?

My reply to 'now what' is that the country suffers under the malign influence of right wing Tories.

Apologies for my cumbersome post. Phone typing is something I am poor at.

 

[philosophical]

probably with a fencing contractor feeling like he's won the lottery?

you do, because i want be certain, understand that if there is no agreement over how a 'frictionless' border might operate between the UK and EU on the island of Ireland, that it will be the Irish government, at the behest of EU rules, that will be enforcing that border, not the UK - don't you?

I am not sure if will work that way.
Are you suggesting that the land border will simply be left open by the UK and anybody and anything will be allowed to cross it?
Would that even be brexit? (I am aware that there are many interpretations as to what brexit is, but taking back control of the borders is repeated frequently.)

 

[danny la rouge]

.

I'm on a phone too (in the hospital). You'll need to sort out the tags before I can make sense of that.

 

[kebabking]

I am not sure if will work that way.
Are you suggesting that the land border will simply be left open by the UK and anybody and anything will be allowed to cross it?
Would that even be brexit? (I am aware that there are many interpretations as to what brexit is, but taking back control of the borders is repeated frequently.)

the UK doesn't have a problem with an open border with the Republic - the Republic doesn't have an open border with the rest of the world for migration (by dint of being in the misddle of the sea), which is the UK governments problem with more open borders, stuff manufactured or grown in the Republic is done so to established EU standards which the UK government is happy with - and of course the CTA is well established. so no, the UK won't be putting up a border with the Republic, it will be the Republic, as a requirement of EU law, putting up a border on the Ireland of Ireland and claiming its everyone elses fault.

please don't tell me that with all your research and knowledge into this issue that thats a surprise to you....

 

[Poi E]

I am not sure if will work that way.
Are you suggesting that the land border will simply be left open by the UK and anybody and anything will be allowed to cross it?
Would that even be brexit? (I am aware that there are many interpretations as to what brexit is, but taking back control of the borders is repeated frequently.)

England has a fine tradition of smuggling.

 

[sleaterkinney]

the UK doesn't have a problem with an open border with the Republic - the Republic doesn't have an open border with the rest of the world for migration (by dint of being in the misddle of the sea), which is the UK governments problem with more open borders, stuff manufactured or grown in the Republic is done so to established EU standards which the UK government is happy with - and of course the CTA is well established. so no, the UK won't be putting up a border with the Republic, it will be the Republic, as a requirement of EU law, putting up a border on the Ireland of Ireland and claiming its everyone elses fault.

please don't tell me that with all your research and knowledge into this issue that thats a surprise to you....

Actually under WTO rules you cannot just throw open the border for one country without throwing it open for every country.

 

[ska invita]

That front page is an absolute disgrace, the worst one they have come out with for at least the last twenty years.

Why? Its true isn't it? The brexit choice was remain in the EU or leave and make new deals, primarily with the US. Murdoch, like all hard Brexiters on the right supports that option....what trump has said is basically correct: Mays proposal does not allow for the US ± deals that Right Leavers want. May is now clearly not going to open the door to that possibility, so Johnson would be a better PM for US business if he got the hard brexit he's standing for.

Trumps lack of tact is helpful in showing what Brexit really means, what options are on the table.
The timing is hilarious.

 

[agricola]

Why? Its true isn't it? The brexit choice was remain in the EU or leave and make new deals, primarily with the US. Murdoch, like all hard Brexiters on the right supports that option....what trump has said is basically correct: Mays proposal does not allow for the US ± deals that Right Leavers want. May is now clearly not going to open the door to that possibility, so Johnson would be a better PM for US business if he got the hard brexit he's standing for.

Trumps lack of tact is helpful in showing what Brexit really means, what options are on the table.
The timing is hilarious.

"Terror is Khan's fault" and "Migration is killing Europe"?

 

[kebabking]

Actually under WTO rules you cannot just throw open the border for one country without throwing it open for every country.

its the optics that matter - on day 1 the UK might receive notice that some other state has complained to the WTO about the open nature of the Irish border, but what will be on TV is pictures of Irish Customs and AGS creating a hard border under an EU flag.

Sir Humphrey called it YP - your problem...

 

[Winot]

the UK doesn't have a problem with an open border with the Republic - the Republic doesn't have an open border with the rest of the world for migration (by dint of being in the misddle of the sea), which is the UK governments problem with more open borders, stuff manufactured or grown in the Republic is done so to established EU standards which the UK government is happy with - and of course the CTA is well established. so no, the UK won't be putting up a border with the Republic, it will be the Republic, as a requirement of EU law, putting up a border on the Ireland of Ireland and claiming its everyone elses fault.

Anyone from the EU can travel to RoI under freedom of movement. How does the UK stop them coming into the UK via NI and maintain that 'freedom of movement stops at 11pm on 29 March 2019'?

 

[gosub]

Anyone see the itn footage of Juncker? Trump's already beaten him.

Now claiming its sciatica

Junker al vertice Nato non era ubriaco: barcollava per un problema di salute

 

[kebabking]

Anyone from the EU can travel to RoI under freedom of movement. How does the UK stop them coming into the UK via NI and maintain that 'freedom of movement stops at 11pm on 29 March 2019'?

unless they can swim, like, really well, then they will have valid EU travel documents, or valid visas if they from outside the EU, in order to get to Ireland. the UK judges that the number of EU citizens who will want to go to the newly-exited-the EU-UK, hop over the border, while still needing some form of UK visa to get on get a plane or ferry to the mainland GB is going to be limited - and moreover, the (UK's) open border doesn't need to be indefinite, it just needs to last about 5 minutes more than the Irish/EU border, and once they've put up their border - as mandated by EU law - the UK can put one up in response.

thats whats important, that the EU puts the border up first.

 

[DexterTCN]

Anyone from the EU can travel to RoI under freedom of movement. How does the UK stop them coming into the UK via NI and maintain that 'freedom of movement stops at 11pm on 29 March 2019'?

GFA means it can't be between Ireland and NI, NI won't have it on their west coast....Liverpool?

 

[philosophical]

the UK doesn't have a problem with an open border with the Republic - the Republic doesn't have an open border with the rest of the world for migration (by dint of being in the misddle of the sea), which is the UK governments problem with more open borders, stuff manufactured or grown in the Republic is done so to established EU standards which the UK government is happy with - and of course the CTA is well established. so no, the UK won't be putting up a border with the Republic, it will be the Republic, as a requirement of EU law, putting up a border on the Ireland of Ireland and claiming its everyone elses fault.

please don't tell me that with all your research and knowledge into this issue that thats a surprise to you....

What about if the UK has a problem with people strolling across the border from the EU to the UK?

 

[kebabking]

What about if the UK has a problem with people strolling across the border from the EU to the UK?

the UK government, perhaps somewhat cynically, thinks that the number of EU citizens who will wish to live as 'illegals' in NI will be somewhat limited...

 

[philosophical]

I'm on a phone too (in the hospital). You'll need to sort out the tags before I can make sense of that.

I am struggling with the tags, so have tried to be helpful by starting my bits by saying my reply.
I hope if you're in hospital because you're unwell that you feel better soon.

 

[ska invita]

"Terror is Khan's fault" and "Migration is killing Europe"?

These are trump quotes, all papers are running it.

 

[sleaterkinney]

its the optics that matter - on day 1 the UK might receive notice that some other state has complained to the WTO about the open nature of the Irish border, but what will be on TV is pictures of Irish Customs and AGS creating a hard border under an EU flag.

Sir Humphrey called it YP - your problem...

And that goes for the whole of the UK?. Or are you separating off NI?. Because that will need legislation .

Who is bothered about these optics btw, everyone knows that in order to stop free movement, have your own tariffs and laws etc you need a border, it's a bizarre argument.

 

[philosophical]

unless they can swim, like, really well, then they will have valid EU travel documents, or valid visas if they from outside the EU, in order to get to Ireland. the UK judges that the number of EU citizens who will want to go to the newly-exited-the EU-UK, hop over the border, while still needing some form of UK visa to get on get a plane or ferry to the mainland GB is going to be limited - and moreover, the (UK's) open border doesn't need to be indefinite, it just needs to last about 5 minutes more than the Irish/EU border, and once they've put up their border - as mandated by EU law - the UK can put one up in response.

thats whats important, that the EU puts the border up first.

Northern Ireland is the UK isn't it?
Northern Ireland people don't need a visa to get on a ferry from Larne to Stranraer.
There is at the moment (this is theoretical and unlikely to happen) nothing to stop a whole bunch of EU citizens simply walking in to the UK.
Would that be the UK regaining control of it's borders post brexit?

 

[philosophical]

the UK government, perhaps somewhat cynically, thinks that the number of EU citizens who will wish to live as 'illegals' in NI will be somewhat limited...

A few years ago not many people would have anticipated the migrant crisis and the steps people would take to move from place to place. It is not at all difficult to imagine EU citizens wanting to move to the post brexit UK across the Irish border.

 

[agricola]

These are trump quotes, all papers are running it.

Admittedly I haven't checked the print version - but on the online account of Trump's interview on the rags website, and on every other account of it I have seen, he did not say "Terror is Khan's fault". He didn't even imply that it was.

 

[kebabking]

And that goes for the whole of the UK?. Or are you separating off NI?. Because that will need legislation .
that
Who is bothered about these optics btw, everyone knows that in order to stop free movement, have your own tariffs and laws etc you need a border, it's a bizarre argument.

you have, i trust, noticed the big blue wobbly thing that seperates the UK from the European continent? that serves quite well as a border,

..There is at the moment (this is theoretical and unlikely to happen) nothing to stop a whole bunch of EU citizens simply walking in to the UK...

there is already an identity check at the ferry ports - you can no more just 'walk on' than you can walk on an Easyjet flight from Bristol to Glasgow -and non-EU passport holders have to show their visas (assuming their nationality needs one) to enter the UK (obviously they are already in the UK, but given the absence of a border on on the border, that is where the check is done).

 

[philosophical]

you have, i trust, noticed the big blue wobbly thing that seperates the UK from the European continent? that serves quite well as a border,


there is already an identity check at the ferry ports - you can no more just 'walk on' than you can walk on an Easyjet flight from Bristol to Glasgow -and non-EU passport holders have to show their visas (assuming their nationality needs one) to enter the UK (obviously they are already in the UK, but given the absence of a border on on the border, that is where the check is done).

I think from this you're saying there will be no border controls set up by the UK on it's land border (in Ireland) with the EU.
You might also be implying that there will be a (stricter) border between part of the UK and the rest of the UK.

 

[kebabking]

I think from this you're saying there will be no border controls set up by the UK on it's land border (in Ireland) with the EU.
You might also be implying that there will be a (stricter) border between part of the UK and the rest of the UK.

no, i'm saying that the UK will set up land border control on the NI-Irish border only after the EU-Ireland does. the original UK proposal was that the Irish Authorities at the Irish ports of entry could, on the UK's behalf, use UK immigration/customs rules (in addition to their own) to remove the neccessity of a UK/Irish border on the, err.. border - not dissimilar in practice to the current arrangement in Ireland where those travelling to the US go through US customs and Immigration in Ireland before they get on the plane. Ireland and the EU said no...

 

[danny la rouge]

I am struggling with the tags, so have tried to be helpful by starting my bits by saying my reply.
I hope if you're in hospital because you're unwell that you feel better soon.

Picking up my daughter. But thanks.

I'll take a look in a moment.

 

[danny la rouge]

DLR: You have repeatedly said that leave voters should sort it out. I can quote the posts if you wish. If you say that this does not mean getting involved in the negotiations (which is what needs to be sorted, since that is where we're at with Brexit), then you need to explain i) precisely what you think needs to be sorted by voters and ii) howthey should sort it.

P: My reply to this is that the Irish border needs to be sorted out by brexit voters and the how is by suggesting a range of workabld and practical suggestions to choose from.

DLR:It was a response to your repeated demand for voters to sort it. Direct democracy is when the electorate is directly involved in the "sorting". The usual example is ancient Athens (although obviously slaves, women, etc were not counted). You seemed to imagine we had this instead of a representative democracy, which if you have read Edmund Burke you'll know does not allow for MPs to be seen even as delegates, but as people we empower to get on with it.

P: My reply is that the brexit vote was not for MP's but for, I dunno a concept and a practical process so the Burke principle is not the case in terms of the brexit referendum.

DLR: What is the point of this observation, though? Is it a version of the new liberal orthodoxy that only experts should be allowed to vote? That the electorate was not competent? That they did not read up on constitutional law before voting? If that's not what you're implying, then be specific. What does your observation mean in practical terms, since you seem to be demanding practicality.

P: My reply is that I think everybody should get a vote. I also think voters should take ownership of what they voted for. In the case of an MP if following experience of that MP they don't want them any more, then don't vote for them next time, in the case of brexit voters are (seemingly) stuck with their decision so they have a responsibility to follow it through.

DLR: Surely this is not the "sorting"? Are you expecting people to jump in a time machine and point out to the Leave Campaign the various governmental mishaps since the referendum? Of course you're not. So what?

Please enlighten us as to what you think the context in 2016 was.

P: My reply. I think the context of 2016 was a hatred of 'foreigners' largely. I also think voters might have been swayed by the allure of Farage, Boris and Gove so voted brexit in order to associate themselves with those people, that is what seems to have happened in 2016, brexit voters became allies of Boris Johnson because of what happened.

DLR: Yes, but there is no general election on the horizon. So now what?

P: My reply to 'now what' is that the country suffers under the malign influence of right wing Tories.

"the Irish border needs to be sorted out by brexit voters and the how is by suggesting a range of workabld and practical suggestions to choose from."

But this is almost exactly what you said you weren't suggesting! Do you imagine symposia of registered voters submitting position papers to government and the government being obliged to pick one? It's also entirely counter to what Burke had to say. Can you show me the procedure for that in Erskine May which would allow that process to take place? People can write to MPs all they like, but MPs will pass it on to the Brexit minister, who'll eventually send back a bland reply, at best enclosing a photocopied bullet point summary of what they were going to do anyway. (I have direct experience of this).

"the brexit vote was not for MP's but for, I dunno a concept and a practical process so the Burke principle is not the case in terms of the brexit referendum."

No, the Burkean principle of representative democracy still stands. It was not suspended by the terms of the wording on the referendum ballot paper.

We were asked: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

The options were:

Remain a member of the European Union
Leave the European Union

Nothing here suggests either outcome would be carried out any way but by government, supported by the civil service. So you're in the realms of fantasy, and frankly you sound like you don't know what you're talking about.

"I think everybody should get a vote. I also think voters should take ownership of what they voted for. In the case of an MP if following experience of that MP they don't want them any more, then don't vote for them next time, in the case of brexit voters are (seemingly) stuck with their decision so they have a responsibility to follow it through."

What does "taking ownership" in this instance mean? Specifically. In what way do voters have a responsibility to "follow it through"? Specifically. You've said my understanding of what you're implying is incorrect. So you have to tell me exactly what you mean here, because it still sounds like you're calling for a suspension of representative democracy (and if so, great. But how do we achieve that?).

"I think the context of 2016 was a hatred of 'foreigners' largely. I also think voters might have been swayed by the allure of Farage, Boris and Gove so voted brexit in order to associate themselves with those people, that is what seems to have happened in 2016, brexit voters became allies of Boris Johnson because of what happened."

So we're back to "leave voters are racists". Where is your evidence for this? And even if you have evidence (which you don't), is that in itself context free? Was there a vacuum that this alleged xenophobia occurred in?

The allure of Farage and others. So, you mean an election campaign? Those dastardly politicians did a presentation job. Yes. That's what they do. The last bit about "brexit voters became allies of Boris Johnson". What does that even mean? But more to the point, what then? Especially since he's resigned. At time of writing he is not in government. The ballot paper does not say he had to be.

"'now what' is that the country suffers under the malign influence of right wing Tories."

Yes it does. That was decided in 2015, just before the referendum, and in 2017, just after it. Next scheduled one is 2022. Three years and a couple of months after the Brexit date. Now what?

 

[Winot]

So when you said

the UK won't be putting up a border with the Republic

you actually meant

the UK can put one up