Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

the uk was keen to extend membership - i remember the argument at the time was to dilute the federalist push from france and germany.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think there is a perception in the UK that unskilled migrant workers drive down wages. Employers argue that migrants do work that locals do not want. The counter argument could be that if firms had no pool of cheap migrant labour to draw from then they would have to make the work attractive to locals with better pay/conditions.

There is illegal explotation of migrant labour in our near neighbours but their much better employment laws are enforced & there are procecutions & fines. Firms are also forced to reimburse migrant workers money that they have been cheated out of as well. This certainly the case in Holland. That way a level playing field is created to allow migrants & locals to compete equally for the available work. So if anything migrants are actively discouraged rather that encouraged as has been the case in the UK.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I don't know where you got that 2million+ figure from. The official number is 780k - which is very little when you come to think of the historical ... ehem.. overlaps... the two countries have had in recent history. Lot's of people in Poland with German surnames.

(on a side note: there's a very interesting documentary on Netflix atm called "What our fathers did: A Nazi Legacy" about the German occupation of Poland)

That doesn't count the number who are German citizens.

Polen in Deutschland: Verstecken war gestern

 

[pocketscience]

I don't make any claims for utopia. That 1 euro scheme as far as I can see, is for the long-term unemployed and that money is paid to them on top of their benefits. It has been expanded to cover refugees, who also get some benefits too.

Yeah the 1 euro is for long term unemployed and now refuges and limited now to 6 months - thereafter the recipient usually gets pushed into the minijob system which is indefinite.
The minijob system works out at about 2 euro's an hour and some basic benefits like health insurance are covered. if a spouse earns a normal wage, then the benefits disappear.
The statistics for people landing in this system and later moving on to fair payed employment is ridiculously low.

I don't see what it has to do with freedom of movement.

It's very relevant for those poorer, unskilled Eu citizens whose countries' economies have been destroyed be enforced austerity, who happen to exercise their right of freedom of movement. To a very large extent, these are the jobs they (the unskilled/ most desperate) will be ending up in. The reason I linked to it was because of the context of the discussion (i.e why east europeans leap frogged germany/ france and head to the UK)

Our leaving the EU will have no effect on it. And we make unemployed people work for nothing and will probably continue to do so unless and until we get a new government.

Yeah but the UK has a much free er employment market and much more opportunities to earn a better wage than germany. Plus the german system is very highly regulated and tones of upfront paperwork is needed before even starting to work.

How can it be controversial to say that in general people move to try to get a better deal? When the British economy was struggling and Thatcher decimated industry lots of UK people went to Europe. As poorer former communist bloc countries have joined, people from those countries have tended to come west. I don't doubt that some, perhaps a lot, are exploited and disappointed.

That starts getting even more murky when certain countries of the Eu have been complicit in the destruction of a smaller counties economy, then inviting the workers of those countries to take up the cheep jobs in it's own country at rates way below a minimum wage.

 

[pocketscience]

That doesn't count the number who are German citizens.

obviously not. They're German.

 

[sleaterkinney]

obviously not. They're German.

Just because you acquire citizenship doesn't stop you being an immigrant.

 

[pocketscience]

Just because you acquire citizenship doesn't stop you being an immigrant.

Do you think all the survivors of the concentration camps that were set up across Poland, that fled to the UK before, during and after the war - their sons, daughters, grandchildren etc are in the 815K figure of the UKs polish immegrants you quoted?

Besides, large swathes of Poland were Germany. It's only the circumstances of ww2 that many Germans became polish citizens. Many have repatriated since the fall of the Berlin wall. I wouldn't categorise them as immigrants, just as i wouldn't a Bavarian that moves to lower Saxony.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Yeah the 1 euro is for long term unemployed and now refuges and limited now to 6 months - thereafter the recipient usually gets pushed into the minijob system which is indefinite.
The minijob system works out at about 2 euro's an hour and some basic benefits like health insurance are covered. if a spouse earns a normal wage, then the benefits disappear.
The statistics for people landing in this system and later moving on to fair payed employment is ridiculously low.
It's very relevant for those poorer, unskilled Eu citizens whose countries' economies have been destroyed be enforced austerity, who happen to exercise their right of freedom of movement. To a very large extent, these are the jobs they (the unskilled/ most desperate) will be ending up in. The reason I linked to it was because of the context of the discussion (i.e why east europeans leap frogged germany/ france and head to the UK)


Yeah but the UK has a much free er employment market and much more opportunities to earn a better wage than germany. Plus the german system is very highly regulated and tones of upfront paperwork is needed before even starting to work.


That starts getting even more murky when certain countries of the Eu have been complicit in the destruction of a smaller counties economy, then inviting the workers of those countries to take up the cheep jobs in it's own country at rates way below a minimum wage.

Thank you for the long detailed answer. I appreciate it.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Do you think all the survivors of the concentration camps that were set up across Poland, that fled to the UK before, during and after the war - their sons, daughters, grandchildren etc are in the 815K figure of the UKs polish immegrants you quoted?

No, because their sons, grandchildren etc are not immigrants, they did not immigrate, they were born here.

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to have here, i am pointing out that Germany has a greater number of Poles and indeed a greater number of immigrants than the UK full stop.

 

[SpackleFrog]

well a significant chunk of the uk power establishment clearly thinks it isn't in the national interest - which is why it may well not happen and why it has such a destabilising effect on uk politics.

Liberal's can never answer a simple question can they?

I'm well aware that the majority of the ruling class don't want Brexit to happen, I asked if you thought it was against the national interest. Yes or no?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Liberal's can never answer a simple question can they?

I'm well aware that the majority of the ruling class don't want Brexit to happen, I asked if you thought it was against the national interest. Yes or no?

So thinking brexit is a shit idea = "liberal" does it

The interests of the state and the interests of the people are not the same thing. On brexit the interests of the state are split - mostly they want to stay - but a significant section - "small state" uber freidmanites and romantic nationalists - want to leave.

For myself - at this time, with the current political power structure, government etc I cant see that brexit will be anything but detrimental to most people in the uk.

 

[pocketscience]

No, because their sons, grandchildren etc are not immigrants, they did not immigrate, they were born here.

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to have here, i am pointing out that Germany has a greater number of Poles and indeed a greater number of immigrants than the UK full stop.

I'm not trying to have an argument - and it's no "full stop" I'm afraid.
The statistics you provided are from an entirely different context to the discussion bein had on the last few pages (i.e Eu economic migration).
Most of the earlier polish arriving in Germany post war who took up german citizenship are German Spätaussiedler (returning German Immigrants to Poland). They get a fast tracked German Citizenship process. They are Germans who got caught on the wrong side of the tracks at the end of WW2.

Seit den 1950er Jahren kamen in die Bundesrepublik insgesamt ca. 2,5 Millionen Menschen aus Polen, vor allem Aussiedler, aber auch politische Emigranten der Solidarność-Zeit.

Since the 1950s, about 2.5 million people have come to the Federal Republic of Poland [16], mainly Aussiedler, but also political emigrants of the Solidarity period

The statistics I provided are in the correct context and somewhat undermine your point that there are more Polish immigrants in Germany than the UK.
Like I say, I'm not after an argument - just pointing out your mistake.

 

[Pickman's model]

They are Germans who got caught on the wrong side of the tracks at the end of WW2.

a great number of the germans who got caught on the wrong side of the tracks never made it to germany, they got deported to siberia

see e.g. the fate of the volga germans:


Volga Germans - Wikipedia

 

[gosub]

Don't you think Brexit was against the national interest?

If you share a flat with 2 of your best mates.. When they decide to get married... It's probably in Everyone's long term interest for you to move out.

 

[pocketscience]

Thank you for the long detailed answer. I appreciate it.

No Problem. Here's a more subjective article on the topic.

The €1 jobs are anything but a “social labour market.” They do not involve a labour relationship. No wages are paid. Instead, in addition to Hartz IV social welfare benefits, claimants receive compensation up to the equivalent of €1, or, occasionally, €2 per hour for a thirty-hour work week. The claimants have to use the additional compensation to cover costs such as transportation. If they become sick and are forced to stay at home, they receive no additional compensation.

The unemployed rarely accept these jobs voluntarily. They are compelled to do so with the threat of benefit cuts if they do not.

Forced community service is a better description of the €1 jobs than the euphemistic term “social labour market.” Academic studies have compared these jobs to “welfare-to-work” programmes and the underlying concept of workfare, referred to in Germany as “working for the bare essentials” and “the duty to work in exchange for state provision of the basic necessities of life.”

Not enough to live on and too much to die on.

 

[redsquirrel]

So thinking brexit is a shit idea = "liberal" does it .

No but very many of the arguments advanced on this thread (and others) have been shot through with liberalism.

Anyway couple of good and relevant articles posted by 1 killer b and 2 butchersapron

 

[pocketscience]

a great number of the germans who got caught on the wrong side of the tracks never made it to germany, they got deported to siberia

see e.g. the fate of the volga germans:

View attachment 125682
Volga Germans - Wikipedia

Indeed.
Another small subset are the Danube Swabians. I have a very good friend who's of Hungarian Swabian decent who's grandparents had to hot foot it out of Budapest when the Russians rolled up.

eta link

 

[gosub]

So you are selectively quoting to suit your agenda. In the very post you took that snippet from the question you ask is answered.

And therein lies one of the big issues with Brexit, the two sides are so dogmatically opposed that they refuse to open their minds to any position other than that they have already decided upon and will mendaciously defend it.

The DEAL May is trying to do is more than than difficult due to the most favored nation status of existing EU trade deals Anything they offer us that's better than those deals, they will legally have to amend the other deals and give them to. The join EFTA work around by passes that due to us just tagging on to an existing deal.... And is better than status quo coz is cheaper and more transparent payment, most of the legislation stuff doesn't have to be followed blindly except mostly technical regulation and we and the rest of EUrope have signed up to WTO technical barriers to trade which declares this technical regulation should be decided globally - where we would be getting our voice back

 

[sleaterkinney]

I'm not trying to have an argument - and it's no "full stop" I'm afraid.
The statistics you provided are from an entirely different context to the discussion bein had on the last few pages (i.e Eu economic migration).
Most of the earlier polish arriving in Germany post war who took up german citizenship are German Spätaussiedler (returning German Immigrants to Poland). They get a fast tracked German Citizenship process. They are Germans who got caught on the wrong side of the tracks at the end of WW2.



The statistics I provided are in the correct context and somewhat undermine your point that there are more Polish immigrants in Germany than the UK.
Like I say, I'm not after an argument - just pointing out your mistake.

No, you are just giving me figures of exclusively polish people, which exclude people who naturalized after coming there.
It also doesn't change the fact that they are immigrants which have had to be absorbed.

 

[teuchter]

If we are talking about which EU states have the most recent immigrants from other EU states, perhaps this is the relevant table. Sorted by % of population "born in other EU state". Doesn't tell us how many of those are from the more recently joined eastern states but it does support the notion that Germany (and others) takes significantly more EU immigrants than we do.

 

[pocketscience]

No, you are just giving me figures of exclusively polish people, which exclude people who naturalized after coming there.
It also doesn't change the fact that they are immigrants which have had to be absorbed.

... but most of the people in the figures you provided were german to begin with.
If you want to extrapolate that far, then you may as well say Germany took in 20 million east European immigrants from west Poland in 1990. Then yes... wunderbar! Germany has more east European immigrants than the UK

 

[pocketscience]

does support the notion that Germany (and others) takes significantly more EU immigrants than we do.

Yeah a whopping 0.7% more - for a country with nearly 4000km of physical boarders to other nations. Austria, Switzerland,Czech, France, Luxemburg, Belgium, Holland & Poland, Denmark - all of which have had large swathes of german "migrants" (for want of a better word) in the last century and a half

 

[paolo]

That starts getting even more murky when certain countries of the Eu have been complicit in the destruction of a smaller counties economy, then inviting the workers of those countries to take up the cheep jobs in it's own country at rates way below a minimum wage.

Poland’s economy is going from strength to strength, as I understand it.

Economy of Poland - Wikipedia

“unlike many other European countries, Poland did not implement austerity but rather boosted domestic demand through Keynesian policy of tax cut, and foreign-assistance funded public spending. An additional reason for its success lay in the fact that Poland is outside the Euro zone.”

I assume, in terms of imposed austerity, you’re more specifically referring to Greece. But Greece isn’t, comparatively, a major source of labour for other EU countries. I don’t think the two - austerity and cheap labour - are part of a joined up plan. If they are, it doesn’t seem to working very well.

(Edited after pocketscience had already replied below)

 

[pocketscience]

..

Poland’s economy is going from strength to strength, as I understand it.

Economy of Poland - Wikipedia

I assume you’re more specifically referring to Greece.

Yes, I was.
And good that you mention the polish economy. Having their own currency meant they were able to avoid any enforced austerity from Brussels in the aftermath of the gfc. They printed and invested. Not a ringing endorsement for the Eu fin policy makers.

 

[paolo]

..

Yes, I was.
And good that you mention the polish economy. Having their own currency meant they were able to avoid any enforced austerity from Brussels in the aftermath of the gfc. They printed and invested. Not a ringing endorsement for the Eu fin policy makers.

Fully in agreement that joining the Euro was a massive mistake for Greece (and that the ECB should/must have known it had the potential to go very badly).

 

[SpackleFrog]

Since when have moral arguments ever trumped national self interest?

I cant see that brexit will be anything but detrimental to most people in the uk.

How can Brexit have happened then?

 

[SpackleFrog]

If you share a flat with 2 of your best mates.. When they decide to get married... It's probably in Everyone's long term interest for you to move out.

Fuck are you on about? Why are you all obsessed with marriage and divorce these are not the same things as international politics

 

[Kaka Tim]

How can Brexit have happened then?

cos the likes of you and I dont decide what constitutes the "national self interest". and it hasn't happened yet.

 

[SpackleFrog]

cos the likes of you and I dont decide what constitutes the "national self interest". and it hasn't happened yet.

Haha, true! But I got the impression you had already decided that whatever *has* happened has not been in the national interest.

 

[pocketscience]

I assume, in terms of imposed austerity, you’re more specifically referring to Greece. But Greece isn’t, comparatively, a major source of labour for other EU countries. I don’t think the two - austerity and cheap labour - are part of a joined up plan. If they are, it doesn’t seem to working very well.

Answering after your edit ;-)
Not sure to be honest. I wouldn't go so far to say it is a joined-up plan but the north-west european nations are certainly profiting from it.
The big winner though is the suppressed value of the Euro. Nations primarily exporting outside of the euro-zone (mostly Germany) are helped massively by the hardship of the poorer nations in the euro-zone. I'm convinced that that is a joined-up plan.
The one thing that would eradicate the ongoing disparity beyween the norhtern & southern nations of the Euro-zone is fiscal union - but it's constantly being put in the long grass for over 10 years now.
When you compare the progress made in the last 10 years on establishing a federal fiscal union, to the urgency that the Eu want to deal with brexit, to you realise that the EU's priorities are firmly based on a stable status quo.
Where's the Barnier for the impoverished southern peoples of Euroland?
The exploitation of a few southern Europeans is merely a micro economic benefit they probably don't care less about, while there's a constant stream of refugees to use for even less cost. (yes, I'm very cynical)