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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
    362
How many Germans are working for a euro an hour then?
140k in 2015 and dropped 90k last year mostly due to new regulations making it harder for employers to abuse.
Hartz IV: Endstation Ein-Euro-Job
So now, the employers are using the minijobs (450€ / month - tax free) mostly for part time workers.There are over 2.5 million stuck in those jobs.
Deutschland: Zahl der Minijobber steigt auf knapp 2,5 Millionen - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Eta:
I doubt its possible to find out how many actual germans make up those numbers but I'd go out on a limb and say proportionally less than foreigners
 
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Don't you think Brexit was against the national interest?

well a significant chunk of the uk power establishment clearly thinks it isn't in the national interest - which is why it may well not happen and why it has such a destabilising effect on uk politics.
 
There is no reason why the UK can’t have an economic relationship with the rEU that is pretty seemless, and that will benefit UK citizens and EU citizens except the EU as represented by Germany and France (Benelux are included in them two) doesn’t want the UK to stop taking Eastern Europeans cos their countries will react badly to taking up that slack.


Maybe.
Just on this, for example, Germany has 2,850,000 polish immigrants where the UK has 813,000 - what is this slack you're imagining.
 

I don't make any claims for utopia. That 1 euro scheme as far as I can see, is for the long-term unemployed and that money is paid to them on top of their benefits. It has been expanded to cover refugees, who also get some benefits too.

I don't see what it has to do with freedom of movement. Our leaving the EU will have no effect on it. And we make unemployed people work for nothing and will probably continue to do so unless and until we get a new government.

How can it be controversial to say that in general people move to try to get a better deal? When the British economy was struggling and Thatcher decimated industry lots of UK people went to Europe. As poorer former communist bloc countries have joined, people from those countries have tended to come west. I don't doubt that some, perhaps a lot, are exploited and disappointed.
 
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Just on this, for example, Germany has 2,850,000 polish immigrants where the UK has 813,000 - what is this slack you're imagining.

So you are selectively quoting to suit your agenda. In the very post you took that snippet from the question you ask is answered.

And therein lies one of the big issues with Brexit, the two sides are so dogmatically opposed that they refuse to open their minds to any position other than that they have already decided upon and will mendaciously defend it.
 
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I don’t see any middle ground except the staus quo. The best trade deal is the one we have already. If a better trade deal is the one we already have minus the unrestricted migration from the EU & minus any payments after our existing financial commitments to the EU have been settled then come on. France & Germany would never agree to that because it would be their taxpayers who would mostly have to make up the shortfall which would lead to an increase in support for populist political parties in their countries & if they gained control they would push for the end of the EU as it is now to just a free trade area which is what the UK would want as well.

To the likes of Macron the EU is an ideaolgy. The “4 freedoms” which include free movement of labour cannot be separated because free trade also means freedom to sell one’s labour anywhere in the EU not just goods. Go to Holland. Look at building sites. See the Polish reg builder’s vans parked there. No longer crappy old wrecks but new properly sign written vans. EU citizens making good money selling their labour where they can make the most profit. Plenty of Dutch object to this of course because it reduces their wages.

In Holland though the law does crack down on the worst excesses of exploitation of foreign labour by Dutch companies. France deliberately makes itself unattractive to foreign labour by very tight employment law. Twats Blair/Brown understood none of this. They threw open the doors & also allowed UK firms to invent entire exploititive business models to encourage foreign labour which lead to the insanity we have now.

Why the EU idealogs have to pull in a direction that a good proportion of populations of the net contributor countries do not want is beyond me. The genie has been allowed to escape from the bottle in the UK but so far the bottles of out near neighbours are being kept corked by their leaders who are at odds with a fair few of their voters.
 
Plenty of Dutch object to this of course because it reduces their wages.

Does it though? That's a genuine question. It makes sense to me that it could but I keep seeing economists saying that it doesn't't or that there is only a very small effect at the very unskilled end of the labour market.
 
So you are selectively quoting to suit your agenda. In the very post you took that snippet from the question you ask is answered.

And therein lies one of the big issues with Brexit, the two sides are so dogmatically opposed that they refuse to open their minds to any position than that they have already decided upon and will mendaciously defend it.

You're not seeing the real reason behind it at all, Germany has a greater % of its population as immigrants, but they also have a better housing situation, Labour laws etc.

It's Tory policies, in paticular austerity that caused brexit, not too much of them foreigners.
 
It’s the unskilled or skilled tradesman end of the market that made people vote to leave. This is what was so annoying when politicians used to go on about migrant IT workers & migrant city workers when the migrants that were visible to leave voters were the crowds of unskilled migrants speaking in their own languages in the leave voter’s local Tescos.

Obviously the perception is not the reality but it is the perception that matters & that caused the leave vote. The Tories always blatted on about “the market” the idea that the economy improves & wages go up up as employers compete for a fixed labour pool. That can be shafted though if a company can simply phone up for a bus load of Romanian workers to fill the positions so wages remain at min wage.
 
Bahnhof Strasse 3 points in response to your grand plan:

1. You seem to be arguing that the EU should compromise more because it is ultimately in its interests to do so. The EU has been compromising for years. The UK has a special deal already.
2. The UK had options to lessen the effects that have lead to Brexit but chose not to exercise them e.g. making EU immigrants wait longer for benefits.
3. You fail to deal with the issue raised above, namely if the EU offers the UK special terms outside of the EU, what's to stop other member states asking for the same?
 
Bahnhof's narrative, which I am not cognitively equipped to appreciate the full depth of, seems to imply that the EU was motivated by the potential influx of low wage workers when they (we) decided to let the eastern european states join. Then he says that Germany, France and Benelux didn't want these immigrants. That seems a big contradiction to me. Or is it that he thinks the membership of the eastern states was pushed through by UK and the mediterranean states, or something? I don't understand. Sorry for being too stupid.
 
Just on this, for example, Germany has 2,850,000 polish immigrants where the UK has 813,000 - what is this slack you're imagining.
I don't know where you got that 2million+ figure from. The official number is 780k - which is very little when you come to think of the historical ... ehem.. overlaps... the two countries have had in recent history. Lot's of people in Poland with German surnames.

(on a side note: there's a very interesting documentary on Netflix atm called "What our fathers did: A Nazi Legacy" about the German occupation of Poland)
 
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