Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[fakeplasticgirl]

Everyone, everyone, knows the seats Labour need to win are almost entirely leave seats. This is the policy chosen to contest them.

In my opinion it’s a disaster and these seats are now lost - unless by a miracle everyone forgets Brexit during a GE. The best that can be said is that it shores up the Labour vote in seats they won in 2017.

You got a link with info re: that? This is what I’ve read and it’s old.. FactCheck: would Labour win an election if it backed remain?

Also what about the seats labour need to hold on to? What’s the leave/remain split? Genuinely don’t know hence asking.

 

[killer b]

Then why aren’t they dancing in the streets of Brighton? They’ve achieved the fundamental change in Labour policy they wanted. The People’s Vote position is the Labour position.

You have to conclude that what they wanted was a second ref that also acted as a Trojan horse to remove Corbyn.

who are you talking about here?

 

[Steel Icarus]

I shouldn't be surprised or upset by the fact that so many people will only vote on Brexit in a GE, forgetting or ignoring or just not knowing what the Tories have done in the last decade and will double up on if they win again.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

who are you talking about here?

Watson, Starmer, Thornberry, Lewis, Benn, Cooper, Kyle, Mason, PV loons

 

[killer b]

Watson, Starmer, Thornberry, Lewis, Benn, Cooper, Kyle, Mason, PV loons

are these the blairites you were talking about above?

 

[killer b]

When did Cooper become a PV loon btw?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

When did Cooper become a PV loon btw?

Eh? There is a comma indicating it’s those named and PV loons

 

[killer b]

Eh? There is a comma indicating it’s those named and PV loons

Is she supportive of the campaign for a people's vote though? She's been fairly noteable by her absence from this particular debate, unless I've missed something.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Formby was (I think) arguing against a card vote, as it wasn't as close as yesterdays votes which did go to a card vote.

Looked pretty clear majorities for the leadership position from the telly.

It was a stitch up for a fudge. Will that work on the doorstep?.

 

[redsquirrel]

You got a link with info re: that? This is what I’ve read and it’s old.. FactCheck: would Labour win an election if it backed remain?

Also what about the seats labour need to hold on to? What’s the leave/remain split? Genuinely don’t know hence asking.

The key assumption in that Fact Check is it using a UNS.

If you look at the Labour target seats and Labour marginals they confirm the fact that (as usual) the next government will be decided in Tory-Lab and Lab-Tory seats. (For instance there are only two seats in the country where Lab are realistically competing with the LDs)

And of those Lab-Tory seats a majority had (estimated) majorities for Leave in the 2016 referendum.

Leave % for top 10 Con-Lab marginals
Southampton Itchen - 60
Pudsey - 49
Hastings and Rye - 56
Chipping Barnet - 41
Thurrock - 70
Preseli Pembrokeshire - 55
Calder Valley - 53
Norwich North - 57
Broxtowe - 53 (Soubry's constituency)
Stoke-on-Trent South - 71

Leave % for top 10 Lab-Con marginals
Kensington - 31
Dudley North - 71
Newcastle-under-Lyme - 62
Crewe-and-Nantwich - 60
Canterbury - 45
Barrow and Furness - 57
Keighley - 53
Ashfield - 70
Stroud - 46
Bishop Auckland - 61

So 15 out of 20 seats with majorities for Leave.

 

[killer b]

It was a stitch up for a fudge.

they should probably have allowed a card vote just to put this kind of bollocks to bed.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Given the majority of the seats Labour need to win are leave. Given that the collapse towards a neo-liberal remain places them in a shoot off with the liberals, greens, nats, TIG and various independent loons for 48% of the electorate and given that every concession by Corbyn merely produces demands for even more of them it's clear that actually winning the GE has been abandoned. A second ref and bringing down Corbyn is now the game.

This thing of everyone staying exactly where they were three years ago and voting only according to their position on brexit is rubbish IMO. There are no seats which voted to leave, because seats didn't get a vote. Individuals voted. Not necessarily the same individuals who would vote in a GE, nor in the same way.

Worth remembering also that the referendum vote was gerrymandered by the exclusion of EU citizens resident in the UK. Not so a general election, although the huge numbers of EU folk turned away from polling stations at the recent EU elections should be a big concern. Strangely not a big concern to the suddenly and savagely pro-democracy Brexit supporters, or indeed remainers, or anyone come to think of it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Worth remembering also that the referendum vote was gerrymandered by the exclusion of EU citizens resident in the UK. Not so a general election...

Most EU citizens don't get to vote in general elections, with the exception of the Irish and Commonwealth citizens from Cyprus or Malta.

ETA - (I forgot about Cyprus and Malta)

Note: EU citizens (who are not Citizens of the Republic of Ireland, Cyprus or Malta) are not able to vote in UK Parliament elections.

Which elections can I vote in?

 

[SpookyFrank]

EU citizens don't get to vote in general elections, with the exception of the Irish.

That appears to be true. I should stop listening to what people tell me.

 

[killer b]

the rule of thumb is to double check everything you read on twitter before quoting it as fact.

 

[Dom Traynor]

the rule of thumb is to double check everything you read on twitter before quoting it as fact.

As Theodore Roosevelt tweeted

 

[SpookyFrank]

the rule of thumb is to double check everything you read on twitter before quoting it as fact.

I don't read anything on twitter, in this instance I've got my bad information from actual meatspace humans.

 

[killer b]

I don't read anything on twitter, in this instance I've got my bad information from actual meatspacs humans.

I bet they got it off twitter though.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 184953

ah, there's red white and blue on your image today

but also beige

 

[Ranbay]

think i posted that one before... you know or similar...

 

[philosophical]

If Labour get elected and gets a 'deal' where there is any kind of divergence either side of the land border in Ireland they will have to explain how that border is managed.

 

[Pickman's model]

If Labour get elected and gets a 'deal' where there is any kind of divergence either side of the land border in Ireland they will have to explain how that border is managed.

i would expect they'd have had to explain during negotiations and before the completion of the deal how they envisaged the border being managed

 

[kebabking]

If Labour get elected and gets a 'deal' where there is any kind of divergence either side of the land border in Ireland they will have to explain how that border is managed.

No they won't, because no one gives a shit.

 

[Kaka Tim]

View attachment 184953

Im curious - what is this really badly photoshopped guff?

 

[Ranbay]

Im curious - what is this really badly photoshopped guff?

37 Days (TV Mini-Series 2014– ) - IMDb

 

[sleaterkinney]

they should probably have allowed a card vote just to put this kind of bollocks to bed.

They would have lost, that's why they didn't do it.

 

[killer b]

Outside the supreme court this morning.

 

[philosophical]

i would expect they'd have had to explain during negotiations and before the completion of the deal how they envisaged the border being managed

Yes they will have to explain in advance, which suggests to me that they won't be able to (nobody has even come close so far) suggest anything other than a controlled border. A concept that will be in all likelihood defeated by Geography.
I think it is virtually impossible for Labour to negotiate a deal that avoids confronting the importance of the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[andysays]

This thing of everyone staying exactly where they were three years ago and voting only according to their position on brexit is rubbish IMO. There are no seats which voted to leave, because seats didn't get a vote. Individuals voted. Not necessarily the same individuals who would vote in a GE, nor in the same way.

Worth remembering also that the referendum vote was gerrymandered by the exclusion of EU citizens resident in the UK. Not so a general election, although the huge numbers of EU folk turned away from polling stations at the recent EU elections should be a big concern. Strangely not a big concern to the suddenly and savagely pro-democracy Brexit supporters, or indeed remainers, or anyone come to think of it.

The first part of this is true, and some individual voters who voted Leave may be prepared to vote for a Remain supporting Labour party, but as a general point if the majority of Labour's target seats were leave voting, coming out as explicitly Remain (which they haven't, yet) certainly wouldn't do much for their GE chances overall.