Irish Partition - what if the whole of Ireland had become independent in 1921?

[flypanam]

A united front of social conservatives may be difficult when one side thinks that dressing up in funny costumes and using weird handshakes is the same as worshipping the devil.

E2A: after summoning the demon of google via a modified black lodge grand orient rite, I discovered this link, which highlights the furious anti-masonic politics of the 1920s Free State: Local brotherhood – An Irishman’s Diary on the freemasonry controversy in 1920s Ireland

True enough but what if women got too demanding? Nothing would have stopped a Church of Roman Presbyterians in Ireland going about the lords work and making those women submit to his will.

Seriously though that stuff about the Masonary is interesting, although I'm not sure cultural links would win out over class links.

 

[Idris2002]

Massive shit show and protestant and catholic murders at the border and throughout Belfast ultimately quashed by the British army and thousands dead.

In this hypothetical scenario there is no border.

 

[Artaxerxes]

In this hypothetical scenario there is no border.

How do you remove the people who imposed it and made it up and prevent them creating a border?

 

[JimW]

How do you remove the people who imposed it and made it up and prevent them creating a border?

By wishing them away with the magic of a fictional scenario for speculative purposes.

 

[Artaxerxes]

By wishing them away with the magic of a fictional scenario for speculative purposes.

But your not speculating at that point your just making stuff up.

Theres questions to be had on how the Republic was achieved and what the alternatives to partition were and how it was achieved but just wishing away the heavily entrenched aspects of Belfast (Irelands moneybox and Britains shipbuilders at the time) does them a disservice.

 

[JimW]

But your not speculating at that point your just making stuff up.

Theres questions to be had on how the Republic was achieved and what the alternatives to partition were and how it was achieved but just wishing away the heavily entrenched aspects of Belfast (Irelands moneybox and Britains shipbuilders at the time) does them a disservice.

Well then I think your response to the OP which seems to be a scenario where formal unification is achieved is that it would never happen on the ground, which is fair enough.

 

[Mordi]

Carson seemed to be fairly earnest in his claim of armed resistance though how long it would have sustained after abandonment by the motherland I don't know.

The 'Ra gave a pretty good account of themselves and they didn't have the arms stockpiles nor a friendly occupying military that any Ulster Volunteers would have had access to.

I'm going to take this a bit too seriously, but that's partly as I'm trying to educate myself about parts of the story that I'm ignorant of.

The Irish History Podcast is running through the War of Independence right now and he made an interesting point on the episode on the Limerick Soviet that following both the Dublin lockout and the Easter Rising the Irish labour movement lost the driving force of their leadership. When the Unions who were running the city requested support from the ITGWU they weren't willing to back them and told them to go back to work, this is only a year after an Irish general strike had put paid to conscription . I'm personally sceptical of the idea that class solidarity across the island could have had much chance to develop in the context of a civil war, but it doesn't help that those who could have pushed that process weren't keen to press their own struggle and left the landlords in the army council to set the agenda.

 

[JimW]

The 'Ra gave a pretty good account of themselves and they didn't have the arms stockpiles nor a friendly occupying military that any Ulster Volunteers would have had access to.

I was also thinking of the political/psychological consequences of "abandonment", would they have fought for an Ulster statelet if the Britain they wanted to remain part of wasn't going to have them back? Obviously they could have seen it as a possibility to force that re-integration.

 

[Idris2002]

I was also thinking of the political/psychological consequences of "abandonment", would they have fought for an Ulster statelet if the Britain they wanted to remain part of wasn't going to have them back? Obviously they could have seen it as a possibility to force that re-integration.

The rump of the southern Unionist party amalgamated with Cumman na Gael in the late 1920s, after being abandoned in our timeline. Fighting to get back into the UK is one option, but not the only option, and probably not even a viable option.

 

[likesfish]

Carson and his goons run amok so much that the Empire feels it has to intervene partition 2 with even more dead. Bad end.

The prods act as some sort of restraint on the Goverment Ulster prods and restraint

 

[flypanam]

The rump of the southern Unionist party amalgamated with Cumman na Gael in the late 1920s, after being abandoned in our timeline. Fighting to get back into the UK is one option, but not the only option, and probably not even a viable option.

This. In this hypothetical It's likely that in a 32 county Ireland sections of Big House northern unionism would have done the same as the southern unionists. As for Carson and his goons I'm also not convinced that Carson would have wanted violence. Carson initially wasn't in favour of a 6 county statelet nor was he impressed with how stormont treated the catholic minority.

 

[Idris2002]

" What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power."

Edward Carson, 1921.

One thing about Unionist/Loyalist/Protestant identity is that it's contractual, it's a "we had a deal" sort of identity. If you're Irish, you just are Irish, if you're English, you just are English - but our friends in the north don't have that kind of security.

Did anyone see Channel 4 news yesterday? They had an interview with two Protestant teenagers, who affirmed that in a UI they would feel under threat "they'd come and take what we have, I feel it just walking down the street". So, like I said, theirs is an insecure identity.

Also, in the hypothetical scenario we're discussing, the Belfast pogrom of 1920 has already taken place. And that's going to leave a legacy of bitterness, and the basis for an ongoing cycle of violence, whatever regime is in power.

 

[flypanam]

" What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power."

Edward Carson, 1921.

One thing about Unionist/Loyalist/Protestant identity is that it's contractual, it's a "we had a deal" sort of identity. If you're Irish, you just are Irish, if you're English, you just are English - but our friends in the north don't have that kind of security.


Also, in the hypothetical scenario we're discussing, the Belfast pogrom of 1920 has already taken place. And that's going to leave a legacy of bitterness, and the basis for an ongoing cycle of violence, whatever regime is in power.

Given this is all idle speculation...

I’ve been pondering that, do you think that the northern RIC would have transferred allegiance to Dublin or would Dublin have to raise a catholic/Irish b specials in areas such as the Antrim, North Down, Derry and Armagh?

I’m still of the mind that unionism would have split with most of the big house lot throwing their lot in with Dublin to secure their status in the new state, the middle class firmly against and WC unionists split with a majority against a 32 county state.

Does a split unionist polity in 1921 have the strength and the numbers for a prolonged war? Does London see it in its interests that Dublin subdues the north?

 

[Idris2002]

Given this is all idle speculation...

I’ve been pondering that, do you think that the northern RIC would have transferred allegiance to Dublin or would Dublin have to raise a catholic/Irish b specials in areas such as the Antrim, North Down, Derry and Armagh?

I’m still of the mind that unionism would have split with most of the big house lot throwing their lot in with Dublin to secure their status in the new state, the middle class firmly against and WC unionists split with a majority against a 32 county state.

Does a split unionist polity in 1921 have the strength and the numbers for a prolonged war? Does London see it in its interests that Dublin subdues the north?

In the south in our timeline, very few RIC men transferred over to an Garda Siochána after 1922. So it's unlikely that there would have been much Ulster interest in doing so. The key thing is the extent to which the Unionist ruling class could have brought subaltern Protestant communities with them, even if they did a deal with Dublin. There's no guarantee they would have done so.

 

[Pickman's model]

In the south in our timeline, very few RIC men transferred over to an Garda Siochána after 1922. So it's unlikely that there would have been much Ulster interest in doing so. The key thing is the extent to which the Unionist ruling class could have brought subaltern Protestant communities with them, even if they did a deal with Dublin. There's no guarantee they would have done so.

they'd have gone to palestine no doubt

 

[Pickman's model]

In the south in our timeline, very few RIC men transferred over to an Garda Siochána after 1922. So it's unlikely that there would have been much Ulster interest in doing so. The key thing is the extent to which the Unionist ruling class could have brought subaltern Protestant communities with them, even if they did a deal with Dublin. There's no guarantee they would have done so.

out of curiosity, i know that ric men were posted away from where they were from - i don't suppose this ever happened in that alternate history where there was a laughable six county state, that the 'royal ulster constabulary' ( ) would have served where they came from

 

[Idris2002]

out of curiosity, i know that ric men were posted away from where they were from - i don't suppose this ever happened in that alternate history where there was a laughable six county state, that the 'royal ulster constabulary' ( ) would have served where they came from

It did - that was one reason the special constabulary were set up. The "A Specials" at least, seem to have been recruited to serve in their home areas:

Ulster Special Constabulary - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sue]

There are all those WW2 alternative history novels -- I'd be really interested in reading one long the lines of this as I really don't know much about it. Anyone know of one or fancy writing one...?

 

[A380]

There are all those WW2 alternative history novels -- I'd be really interested in reading one long the lines of this as I really don't know much about it. Anyone know of one or fancy writing one...?

Harry Harrison wrote a really shit Irish independence novel as part of the 'Stars and Stripes Forever' series but, unlike some of his other alternate history stuff, the whole premise is a bit rubbish and his writing not as good as his standard.

Goggling I found this article rather than a book. If Michael Collins had not been killed: an alternative history of Ireland

Does seem a bit of a gap - I'd be interested on the impact on the rest of the Empire...

 

[Pickman's model]

Harry Harrison wrote a really shit Irish independence novel as part of the 'Stars and Stripes Forever' series but, unlike some of his other alternate history stuff, the whole premise is a bit rubbish and his writing not as good as his standard.

Goggling I found this article rather than a book. If Michael Collins had not been killed: an alternative history of Ireland

Does seem a bit of a gap - I'd be interested on the impact on the rest of the Empire...

if eoin macneill had been rather more reasonable or had simply not put a big fuck off ad in the papers just before easter sunday 1916

 

[Pickman's model]

Harry Harrison wrote a really shit Irish independence novel as part of the 'Stars and Stripes Forever' series but, unlike some of his other alternate history stuff, the whole premise is a bit rubbish and his writing not as good as his standard.

Goggling I found this article rather than a book. If Michael Collins had not been killed: an alternative history of Ireland

Does seem a bit of a gap - I'd be interested on the impact on the rest of the Empire...

if corydon hadn't been a tout in the 1860s

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Collin’s had no love of socialism, a 32 county Ireland may have been deeply reactionary. The difference might have been there may have been a stronger labour movement, and labour could stop waiting.

A 32 county Ireland would have been much stronger economically; which is one good reason it wasn't going to happen.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Artaxerxes]

The alternative to 21 is a quite different Republic and most likely something in thrall to the UK quite deeply but the process of getting there starts early, probably without the Easter rising which did much to bring forward the next batch of Irish leaders and kill the Home Rule party.

I think 21 was about as good as it was going to get, its the post-21 where things could have been better. If Collins had survived Ireland would be very different even if he hadn't wound up in charge. Instead they got fucking Dev.

Collins wouldn't do socialism but he was much admired on both sides of the Irish sea and was very much a moderniser and able to work around problems. With luck maybe a timed or scheduled handover or transition period could have been agreed post 21, a way to incorporate the north into the Republic.

 

[Idris2002]

A 1921 United Ireland goes through the war, and is subjected to the very extreme social changes that happened elsewhere, as a result. That means there's a post-war Irish baby boom, and an Irish sixties that is much closer to the rest of W. Europe.

So we still get Hot Press.

 

[rekil]

A 1921 United Ireland goes through the war, and is subjected to the very extreme social changes that happened elsewhere, as a result. That means there's a post-war Irish baby boom, and an Irish sixties that is much closer to the rest of W. Europe.

So we still get Hot Press.

A united Ireland was floated in 1940 in return for effectively entering the war. Dev rejected it for various reasons - untrustworthy brits, their refusal to help suppress possible violent unionist opposition, the risk of political splits and the likelihood of punitive bombing and other measures by the germans who looked like the winners at that point.

 

[Idris2002]

A united Ireland was floated in 1940 in return for effectively entering the war. Dev rejected it for various reasons - untrustworthy brits, their refusal to help suppress possible violent unionist opposition, the risk of political splits and the likelihood of punitive bombing and other measures by the germans who looked like the winners at that point.

Not to be confused with Churchill's "rise now and be a nation once again" telegram after Pearl Harbour. Followed by Dev's famous "why do you keep letting him at the cooking sherry" note to the head of the British mission in Dublin.

 

[LeytonCatLady]

I suspect that Dougal and Ted would be split on the issue of joining the new Irish state, leaving the casting vote to Father Jack.

No, I think it would be hung, with Ted and Jack in agreement and Mrs Doyle taking sides with Dougal!

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

No, I think it would be hung, with Ted and Jack in agreement and Mrs Doyle taking sides with Dougal!

If you're right the only solution would be to partition Craggy Island. Unthinkable.

 

[Logan^B]

What would be a mixed Irish family of church of Ireland/church of England Anglicans living in county Donegal stance on the whole thing be?

I ask as a Aussie with a Eire passport due to a rural Donegal born mother.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Let's start with remuneration...
After the last war, Germany was given lots of money to rebuild. When this war finishes, how much money will Ireland be given to take back and support the stolen bit that has massive unemployment and even larger problems? I can't see the British government dipping into their pocket to the tune of a few billion, so how, exactly, are we supposed to take back control?