How does the idea of 8+ more years of Conservative rule grab you? What does it mean for the left?

[taffboy gwyrdd]

We may as well face facts that it is on the cards. No matter what your politics or what you think of how parties are judged these days, Labour really ain't got it together at all and there is no sign of civil war in the LDs to scupper the coaltion. Plus it's rare for a governing party to be kicked out after one term for different reasons, and the current state of play doesn't look set to buck that trend.

Another coalition is statistically unlikely, either LD/Con or LD/Lab.

The real national unity coalition would be Con/Lab of course but that would really give the game away.

So, 8 or more years of this? Fucking hell. What level of extra parliamentary agitation is there going to have to be to get concessions let alone a change in direction or some kind of situation approaching revolutionary?

Is this the ideal time for the left to start (again) to think about new arrangements?

Anarchists, greens, socialists, communists etc. still have lots that divide us, but our collective narratives have a good deal in common too and provide genuine proposals for to deal with the problems facing the growing ranks of the ripped off and alienated.

Can the Labour Party can really be an agent for necessary change when they don't look like winning and will be right wing if they do?

How long can some of the large unions slag them off one minute and facilitate large amounts of money going to them the next?

This week's U turn by Balls (a former tory at Oxford I only just belatedly found out) should get all of us thinking. There is time now to regroup and reconsider.

Quite a few questions I know, and quite a few I have missed out. But you get the overall vibe: The prospect of at least 2 Conservative terms is as real as it is alarming. How do we get our heads round it or try and prevent it?

 

[Gmart]

Turn out will go down in general, again. The only parties I could see having an increase in support would be Labour (marginally) and the Greens, so we might see another coalition on the table.

The Cons support will go down because in comparison with the US we have not managed to navigate the recession/depression very well. The Libdems support will go through the floor so they might have a problem.

So maybe a new coalition, Labour/Green?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Maths don't stack up for coalitions generally Gmart. The possibility of Labour/Green would be very small indeed. I think 3 Green MPs next time out is at the far flung fantasy end of things from where we are. Lab/Lib is way more likely, and still not very likely at all. Sorry, but It's looking grim innit?

And if Scotland goes separate (which I don't think will happen when push comes to shove) that would really screw things up for Labour prospects south of the border.

One way or another the tectonic plates need to shift massively to get us out of this fix.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

This thread appears to be predicated on some idea that "the left" were relying on Labour in some way.

 

[free spirit]

while my main political sympathy probably lies with the greens, I doubt they're going to be in a position to be anything other than very minor partners in any coalition next time around as I just don't think they have the base of local parties who're serious enough about it. At least that's my experience of them in a couple of cities I've lived in.

I'm hoping Caroline Lucas keeps here Brighton seat, and they maybe build on it to get a few more seats, but will eat someones hat if they get into double figures.

Unfortunately that leaves it pretty much up to Milliband, and he seems to be not so much letting the tories off the hook for causing us to enter into a double dip recession / turning a major recession into a decade long depression, as actively jumping aboard their sinking ship. So fuck knows, maybe they can get enough seats to get the Welsh and Scots nationalists into a coalition with them, and maybe they can then talk a little bit of sense into labour (although I've thought that before about a different party and that didn't turn out too well tbh).

 

[free spirit]

This thread appears to be predicated on some idea that "the left" were relying on Labour in some way.

I'd say it's a pretty fair comment that the left were relying on Labour to keep the tories out of power. Not really something any other left wing organisation can hope to do without them.

 

[Gmart]

This thread appears to be predicated on some idea that "the left" were relying on Labour in some way.

There is a definite 'anyone but the Tories' part of the electorate, and if they are not turned on by Labour, then who are they going to go for? Libdems should be down and out, while Taffboy is correct to argue that the Greens might well not pick up the Labour dropouts. The general fall in turnout is going to favour the Cons surely?

And Scotland could indeed go, and then the very words 'British', 'Britain' and 'UK' will become obsolete.

 

[Gmart]

And I keep forgetting about UKIP who might pick up votes from the general anti-EU message that all the papers engage in. They also might be able to split the BNP vote too.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I'd say it's a pretty fair comment that the left were relying on Labour to keep the tories out of power. Not really something any other left wing organisation can hope to do without them.

I'd say that any "left" group whose plan was "keep the Tories out" was basically delusional and useless. Fine, it might be easier to try to influence bits of the Labour party in government rather than bits of the Tory government in certain contexts, but generally, supporting and relying on Labour to achieve "left" goals?

 

[Gmart]

I'd say that any "left" group whose plan was "keep the Tories out" was basically delusional and useless. Fine, it might be easier to try to influence bits of the Labour party in government rather than bits of the Tory government in certain contexts, but generally, supporting and relying on Labour to achieve "left" goals?

The 'Anyone but the Tories' vote went wrong last time, when many voted Libdem.

And what identifies the 'left' now anyway? A basic principle of caring for one's fellow man as opposed to the 'law of the jungle' attitude of the 'right'?

The anti-EU vote may well be the big surprise this time with UKIP getting a number of seats - so maybe another coalition: Labour/UKIP?

Heaven help us if we vote for the Cons again, and as has been mentioned, if Scotland get out then it will be a bluer UK all round!

 

[FridgeMagnet]

The 'Anyone but the Tories' vote went wrong last time, when many voted Libdem.

And what identifies the 'left' now anyway? A basic principle of caring for one's fellow man as opposed to the 'law of the jungle' attitude of the 'right'?

The anti-EU vote may well be the big surprise this time with UKIP getting a number of seats - so maybe another coalition: Labour/UKIP?

Heaven help us if we vote for the Cons again, and as has been mentioned, if Scotland get out then it will be a bluer UK all round!

It's nice to know that you see politics purely in terms of "who do you vote for?"

 

[Gmart]

It's nice to know that you see politics purely in terms of "who do you vote for?"

What does that mean? Politics has principles as I referred to. How do you see it?

 

[FridgeMagnet]

What does that mean? Politics has principles as I referred to. How do you see it?

All you've posted about on this thread is who people might vote for.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Never mind

 

[Gmart]

All you've posted about on this thread is who people might vote for.

As opposed to principles?

I have described how I see the difference between the principles of the 'left' and the principles of the 'right' - care to comment?

Are my posts not good enough in some way

 

[shagnasty]

I think the weakness of the lib dems ,will cost the tories more than labour and the parties ie tory labour will be close and there will be an hung parliament

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

This thread appears to be predicated on some idea that "the left" were relying on Labour in some way.

That would be a fair criticism, but a lot of left tilted people do and have voted Labour, if only to keep the Conservatives out. Some say we should accept working towards a Labour victory and use that to agitate from the left? But what's the point when that victory is unlikely and any such ground gained by the left from 97 onwards didn't justify the 13 years, let alone the downsides?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9OM4L2FT_A

Well, he didn't succeed either did he?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Libdems should be down and out, while Taffboy is correct to argue that the Greens might well not pick up the Labour dropouts. The general fall in turnout is going to favour the Cons surely?

Indeed. There is not enough motivation for most people to vote Green in a GE. Labour will probably tread water and gain back some of the people that tried out the LDs. Where Greens make an effort they can easily get a decent amount of those LDs too, but overall as I and others have said the Greens won't have the seats to be a player and that is probably a blessing for them ("us" as it happens).

And with all this, while the tories are starting to look bad in their own terms (deficit going up, virtual stagflation), they are still the most coherent and true to their message of the 3 large parties. Cameron does kind of exude a degree of the "leadership" thing. Not in any remarkable way, and not that many of us may look to "leaders". But many of the electorate do look to "leaders" and Clegg /Miliband are not perceived as such as much as Cameron.

I honestly can't see a way out. A letter to the Guardian this week was urging the likes of Mcdonnell to co operate with the Greens. LRC actually have a similar amount of members to GPEW, so could start out a small platform on their own, target a few seats and draw a lot of interest and good will. But it would require an emotional tribal break that many are not likely to commit to. They just put in 13 years, they are looking at a possible 10 more by the time this is through. The longer they leave it the longer they will hang on there. We all know the situation the overtly left parties struggles to get beyond the Pythonesque. Yet there is broad sympathy, even buzz out there for things like the Occupy Movement and UK Uncut. The Greens are clearly trying to build on that in some ways, though not in any way a vanguardist type party by instinct and voting politics is very different from non voting politics for a whole host of reasons. I used to think the LDs could buckle and pull out, still salvaging some credibility. That looks increasingly remote now. Sad to say that one way and another things are going to get uglier still in the medium term. Gah

 

[Corax]

I honestly think it's far too early to tell. At election time, 'people' vote on the basis of the last 6 months' headlines as far as I can see. The floating voter has a short memory.

 

[Quartz]

A week is a long time in politics. We've a long way to go. But all the Westminster parties are mostly showers of shite. Same shitrs, different suits. That said, I think the Left have the wrong attitude: Cameron's on the left, Wet, wing of the Conservatives, and the Left should gently encourage, divert, coopt, and subvert him. Better him policy-wise than David Davis (for whom I actually have much more respect as a person). Cameron's nebulous Big Society should be a big target. It's the Labour Party's duty to oppose it, but the Left should instead make it work for us.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh god

 

[purenarcotic]

I honestly think it's far too early to tell. At election time, 'people' vote on the basis of the last 6 months' headlines as far as I can see. The floating voter has a short memory.

Think this certainly applies to some people. My friend voted for the Tories based purely on their billboard adverts.

 

[articul8]

Maths don't stack up for coalitions generally Gmart.

Why do you say this? Most psephologists think the chances of another hung parliament and coalition are now becoming a semi-permanent fixture even under FPTP (mostly due to diminishing share of vote for big 2)

 

[butchersapron]

Why do you say this? Most psephologists think the chances of another hung parliament and coalition are now becoming a semi-permanent fixture even under FPTP (mostly due to diminishing share of vote for big 2)

No they don't

 

[Plumdaff]

LRC actually have a similar amount of members to GPEW

LRC has 11,000 odd members? 'Cos the Greens had that just after the last election. I'm sorry, I don't believe that for a second, more's the pity. I reckon LRC is a few hundred people.

 

[dynamicbaddog]

LRC has 11,000 odd members? 'Cos the Greens had that just after the last election. I'm sorry, I don't believe that for a second, more's the pity. I reckon LRC is a few hundred people.

we have just over a thousand. But that number is growing. (BTW you don't have to be in the Labour Party to join http://www.l-r-c.org.uk/shop/)

 

[butchersapron]

LRC has 11,000 odd members? 'Cos the Greens had that just after the last election. I'm sorry, I don't believe that for a second, more's the pity. I reckon LRC is a few hundred people.

LRC membership was under 1000 in September

 

[butchersapron]

we have just over a thousand. But that number is growing. (BTW you don't have to be in the Labour Party to join http://www.l-r-c.org.uk/shop/)

What is it growing by?

 

[dynamicbaddog]

What is it growing by?

I don't know the exact figures, I'll ask at the next meeting. After a period where the LRC did'nt appear to be doing that much we are becoming more organised e.g setting up new branches etc, this is attracting new people.