How could coronavirus remake our economy and society?

[quimcunx]

Just 6% of UK public 'want a return to pre-pandemic economy'

Poll comes as 350 union, business and religious leaders issue call for fair and green recovery

www.theguardian.com

There seems to be an appetite for change. I'm not hopeful though.

 

[redsquirrel]

Piece in FT - very silly in a lot of ways, quoting the anti-democratic Aristotle as an intro, and the below

In today’s world, citizenship needs to have three aspects: loyalty to democratic political and legal institutions and the values of open debate and mutual tolerance that underpin them; concern for the ability of all fellow citizens to lead a fulfilled life; and the wish to create an economy that allows the citizens and their institutions to flourish.

But illustrative of where liberal thought is going - and why despite the entries of some, there is an unavoidable barrier between liberalism and socialism.

 

[CNT36]

The Pro-Privatization Shock Therapy of the UK’s Covid Response

Talks about how the government have sidetracked existing facilities in favour of private ones and used the crisis and pause in what oversight there usually is to award themselves, mates and donors contracts and this will bring about even more of a bleak privatised and unregulated economy with all the ineptitude, disdain and misery that will mean for the majority.

 

[redsquirrel]

Piece in FT - very silly in a lot of ways, quoting the anti-democratic Aristotle as an intro, and the below

But illustrative of where liberal thought is going - and why despite the entries of some, there is an unavoidable barrier between liberalism and socialism.

In fact that article is just part of a series in the FT - The New Social Contract

Coronavirus has exposed frailties in our economic and social model. In a series of articles this week, the FT explores the problems and potential solutions we will confront after the pandemic

Like I said, illustrative of where liberal politics are at the moment.

 

[Shechemite]

It won’t be welcomed by the BMA et al, but there will be more, not less, public dissatisfaction towards and scrutiny of the medical establishment.

Cogs are turning MP calls for medicines and devices review's recommendations to be taken on

Patients at risk from unsafe medicines and implants, major inquiry reveals

‘They are being exposed to a risk of harm when they do not need to be’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Humberto]

Has the ruling class's power been weakened; and will it be further weakened with the accelerating effects of climate change? Are they shitter and more wobbly than they pretend and that we give them credence for?

Being able to make money in a rigged system of deepening inequality is a narrow skill, which favours arseholes, and says nothing about their ability to think long-term. Surely we are going into terra incognita, and the clash of interests and the need for a new perspective and set of priorities will become ever more apparent.

 

[Shechemite]

It won’t be welcomed by the BMA et al, but there will be more, not less, public dissatisfaction towards and scrutiny of the medical establishment.

Cogs are turning MP calls for medicines and devices review's recommendations to be taken on

Patients at risk from unsafe medicines and implants, major inquiry reveals

‘They are being exposed to a risk of harm when they do not need to be’

www.independent.co.uk

Shrewsbury hospital staff ‘appear not to know what good care looks like’

Care Quality Commission chief outlines ‘depth and breadth of concerns’ at scandal-hit hospital trust

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Shechemite]

 

[Shechemite]

It won’t be welcomed by the BMA et al, but there will be more, not less, public dissatisfaction towards and scrutiny of the medical establishment.

Cogs are turning MP calls for medicines and devices review's recommendations to be taken on

Patients at risk from unsafe medicines and implants, major inquiry reveals

‘They are being exposed to a risk of harm when they do not need to be’

www.independent.co.uk

And more Dozens of patients sue the NHS over brain damage claims after therapy

 

[redsquirrel]

In fact that article is just part of a series in the FT - The New Social Contract
Like I said, illustrative of where liberal politics are at the moment.

FT doing a set of talks/discussions this week on these articles. Obviously all going to be coming from a particular direction but might be of some interest.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Opening shots fired.

Remember the ludicrous, vomit inspiring, middle class liberal/ FBPE/Twitter gimp love-in for Sunak?

New UK spending row as Rishi Sunak puts squeeze on public sector salaries

Chancellor to announce pay restraints despite huge boost being unveiled for armed forces

www.theguardian.com

Well we now learn that his funky new brand of neo-liberal economic orthodoxy prescribes austerity and choking off spending to ‘pay back’ the money we’ve squandered stopping people starving and being made homeless during the pandemic. As the private sector contracts and we go into recession the plan is to do the same to the public sector. What a wacky dude! What a novel thinker!

My wife works in the public sector. She’s gone in to work every day during the pandemic. In her office there has been 3 covid outbreaks. Her current wage is a touch over £18,000. Her pay increase over the last decade has been 0% for 4 years, 1% for 5 years and 2% this year.

All eyes on Starmer now. Let’s begin by reminding ourselves of the vision at the start of this:

Just 6% of UK public 'want a return to pre-pandemic economy'

Poll comes as 350 union, business and religious leaders issue call for fair and green recovery

www.theguardian.com

 

[ska invita]

All eyes on Starmer now.

Urrg, do we have to?

Golden opportunity to argue kids and clear, once and for all that austerity was a lie, and borrowing huge sums to spend is perfectly achievable

... Instead watch Starmer fall in line with the Tories to "win back the trust of the business community".

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Urrg, do we have to?

Golden opportunity to argue kids and clear, once and for all that austerity was a lie, and borrowing huge sums to spend is perfectly achievable

... Instead watch Starmer fall in line with the Tories to "win back the trust of the business community".

Leaving aside my rage for a moment, this is a potential game changer. The Tories are about to signal that they can’t deliver the goods for capital. A further round of spending restraint is the last thing it needs. Choking off a major route of public money being funnelled into the private sector will not be welcomed by capital. The absence of a bold public sector spending strategy to buy capital breathing space confirms that the current crop of Tories aren’t serious or fit for the task. The eyes of capital will now turn to Labour (as should ours). Can they offer the vision it needs? Can it be trusted to act as the safety valve for the system? Can it quantitively ease money into its coffers?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

So, now confirmed.

Keynesian economics for capital.

Austerity for Labour.

Let’s remember that as poverty rockets, as homelessness, addiction and acquisitive crime explodes in working class communities. During an era where record levels of economic inequality are about to get worse.

Let’s give no quarter in hammering any and all attempts by the capital and the PMC to define the immediate future as a political battle over the level of public borrowing.

Come April next year - as unemployment rockets and society emerges blinking into the post covid economic apocalypse - the prospect of a long hot summer beckons:

Spending review 2020: Rishi Sunak’s key points at a glance

The chancellor has delivered the spending review – here are the main points, with political analysis

www.theguardian.com

 

[Shechemite]

Liked but not liked. As it were

 

[Shechemite]

.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Meanwhile....

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Interesting article (for once) in the Guardian.

The Hall quote “Politics does not reflect majorities, it constructs them.” feels apt. Having watched QT last night and scanned local online responses here to Sunak’s statement there is a disturbing acceptance that there is a logic to the strategy.

The conflation of personal debt and sovereign fiat seems to remain embedded in popular consciousness.

We’ve had Nick Robinson demand of Sunak that he makes himself ‘tough enough’ to impose a new layer of austerity on already battered communities.

What’s left of the left should be focusing its efforts on how this might be countered, and in a way that ordinary people can understand. But instead.......silence....

How to make sense of Sunak's plans? They're about politics, not the economy | Aditya Chakrabortty

The chancellor seems intent on cementing the deal that gave Johnson his landslide, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty

www.theguardian.com

 

[brogdale]

Interesting article (for once) in the Guardian.

The Hall quote “Politics does not reflect majorities, it constructs them.” feels apt. Having watched QT last night and scanned local online responses here to Sunak’s statement there is a disturbing acceptance that there is a logic to the strategy.

The conflation of personal debt and sovereign fiat seems to remain embedded in popular consciousness.

We’ve had Nick Robinson demand of Sunak that he makes himself ‘tough enough’ to impose a new layer of austerity on already battered communities.

What’s left of the left should be focusing its efforts on how this might be countered, and in a way that ordinary people can understand. But instead.......silence....

How to make sense of Sunak's plans? They're about politics, not the economy | Aditya Chakrabortty

The chancellor seems intent on cementing the deal that gave Johnson his landslide, says Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty

www.theguardian.com

Rebutting capital's 'household economics' obfuscation wrt to debt is certainly not on the Starmerite agenda; the only 'opposition' I've detected from Dodds' shadow team is questions about "how will all of this be paid for?".

That said, there's a massive challenge in attempting to undo such well-embedded notions of 'money' and 'debt'; it would literally blow folks minds to contemplate the truth of conjuring fiat money out of thin pixels.

 

[redsquirrel]

Priests say they need to explain religion better to the (potential) believers

British people “lack a basic understanding” of economic statistics such as unemployment or the government’s deficit, and at the same time mistrust official data, a hard-hitting report funded by the Office for National Statistics concluded on Wednesday. The report, produced by the ONS’s think-tank, the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, found that a large proportion of the people they surveyed had little ability to judge how well the government or the UK economy was performing.

He said that economists, the media and statisticians should try to understand better how the public understands words such as “unemployment” because differences between popular understanding and formal definitions can fuel mistrust.

Perhaps not directly on topic perhaps but an indication of how quickly things have gone from 'societal change' to 'back to normal'

 

[redsquirrel]

No need to remake anything (was not quite sure where to put this deluded shit)

The UK economy is like a "coiled spring" ready to release large amounts of "pent-up financial energy", the Bank of England's chief economist has said.
Andy Haldane said consumer confidence would surge back thanks to the vaccine programme, with the economy firing "on all cylinders" by spring.
He is the latest economist to forecast a sharp rebound in growth after an expected easing of restrictions.

"Many" UK households, right.

And unlike past recessions, he added, many UK households had strengthened their finances during lockdown and would have more money to spend.
"That might mean two pub, cinema or restaurant visits a week rather than one," he said.
"It might mean a higher-spec TV or car or house."
On top of this he said a significant number of companies had amassed cash during the crisis, which would likely be invested as restrictions started to ease.
"That would be good news for jobs, helping to recover some of the million lost so far in this crisis," Mr Haldane wrote.
"And it would be good news for business investment too, helping companies boost their performance and productivity - and, ultimately, the pay of their workers."

 

[SpookyFrank]

Pent up financial energy. Economists aren't even pretending their discipline is legitimate any more are they? It's just another subcategory of magical thinking woo now, complete with utterly spurious use of the word 'energy'.

 

[ska invita]

Pent up financial energy. Economists aren't even pretending their discipline is legitimate any more are they? It's just another subcategory of magical thinking woo now, complete with utterly spurious use of the word 'energy'.

there are people out there who are getting paid and not spending, particularly people in best paid job so im sure its true, though how they can tell how much will be splurged I don't know.
im surprised the economy hasn't shrunk by more than the reported 10% considering the extent of lock down, though I guess 10% is a lot really.

 

[redsquirrel]

It is possible that the economy could "bounce back", but all that shows is how divorced from most people the economy is.

 

[SpookyFrank]

It is possible that the economy could "bounce back", but all that shows is how divorced from most people the economy is.

It'll be the new textbook definition of 'dead cat bounce' if so.

 

[hypernormalized]

All you need to know about the Government's economic policy is as follows:

We have forcibly closed/restricted individuals and businesses for a year, whilst allowing landlords to collect rent at 100%.

If you can acquire and hold on to capital, you'll be fine. If not, you're going to literally be stolen from.

"N% of businesses will fold by..." headlines - ask yourself why the businesses even have any expenses when they're closed. Oh, right...

 

[redsquirrel]

This could have gone on a number of threads but thought this might be the most appropriate. Adam Tooze piece on Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi

Yellen and Draghi are no doubt qualified, but the question facing both in 2021 is blunt. Can they get a grip on the basic political and economic forces shaping their countries? The fact that they are in the positions that they are in, under the circumstances we currently face, is not a reward for lifetime achievement. It is a wager that they can deliver an escape from the terrifying mess that 2020 landed us in. Can they, in perhaps their last act, vindicate the past half-century of centrist expertise of which they are such prominent exponents? And will that require leaving most, if not all, of its basic organizing assumptions behind?

Though they owe little to the Chicago school, it does not follow that Draghi and Yellen were not exponents of neoliberalism. On the contrary: They were strong advocates of markets. Competition and properly designed incentives were the recipe for productivity and growth. In the world economy, they favored the free capital movement and flexible exchange rates that defined the so-called Washington Consensus of the 1990s. It was Rudiger Dornbusch, the pope of international macroeconomics at MIT and one of Draghi’s chief mentors, who described the project of his generation as being the taming of “democratic money.” In the wake of the collapse of the Bretton Woods financial order and the U.S. dollar’s gold peg, the chief enemies of good economic governance were shortsighted trade unions pushing for higher wages and vote-chasing politicians. Once trade unions were curbed and politicians confined to their proper tasks, Friedmanite monetarists hoped that prices could be stabilized by mechanical monetary rules.

But as late as July 2007, Yellen opined: “From the standpoint of monetary policy, I do not consider it very likely that developments relating to subprime mortgages will have a big effect on overall U.S. economic performance, although they do add to downside risk.”

There is no escaping the fact that faced with a decisive historical challenge—restarting growth after decades of stagnation—Italy’s political class has chosen to delegate executive power to someone who has never been elected to office. It is the ultimate victory of technocracy but also a do-or-die challenge. Given the self-abasement of the political class, if the combination of Draghi and Next Generation EU fails to deliver growth, what future prospects are there at all?

Too naive on the Biden administration IMO (theoretically the left may have much sway as the right in the Democrats but I cannot see any left wingers willing to pull to the plug on legislation in the way Manchin has done). And more on the cute outlook would have been good but still worth a read.

 

[redsquirrel]

Not directly COVID related but part of the wider liberal conversation on the economy the FT has a series of pieces A New Deal for the Young

There is some good data there (also in an similar IFS) piece but it is clear what this is about.

This will damage social mobility. For those born in the 1980s to parents whose wealth levels are in the lowest fifth among their peers, inheritances will increase their lifetime incomes by 5 per cent according to IFS estimates, while those born to parents in the top fifth will enjoy a 29 per cent boost. For those born in the 1960s, the disparity was smaller (2 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively).

Like the previous FTs New Social Contract it is a politics to support capital not attack it.
And some of the stuff is revolting

It is probably an unrealistic policy change, but I would like to see some kind of weighting system applied to future voting (be it elections or referendums). The older you are, the fewer years you have left to live and the less you will have to suffer from poor long-term choices. Brexit is a good example of this. Foolish and impressionable members of the older generation selfishly voted to leave the EU — a decision which will cause long-term damage for my generation well after they are deceased. Older people’s votes should have counted for less in the referendum.

 

[Shechemite]

Scientific state ahoy

 

[redsquirrel]

This could have gone on a number of threads but thought this might be the most appropriate. Adam Tooze piece on Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi

from Tooze has just published a piece in the LRB on the changing opinions of Paul Krugman that covers similar ground. It shows clearly the limits that people like Krugman set themselves even if their politics has moved

In a column for Slate in 1997 with the Swithian title ‘In Praise of Cheap Labour’, Krugman denounced the anti-globalisation movement for its failure to understand that ‘bad jobs at bad wages are better than no jobs at all.’ What masqueraded as progressive politics was in fact misplaced fastidiousness: American liberals didn’t like the idea of consuming goods produced by poor people. When such muddled thinking affected the chances of development for nations whose people desperately needed it, it was, for Krugman, both an intellectual and a moral failure.

It is a measure of Krugman’s increasing despair that by 2013 his jaundiced view of American class society converged with his worries about the intellectual framing of economics. As Republican and Democratic centrists struggled to fashion a bipartisan majority around a programme to slash the deficit, it dawned on Krugman that the entirety of what he had once confidently described as ‘responsible’ economic policy was shot through with class interest. Talk of fiscal sustainability wasn’t just bad economics; it was, Krugman now believed, class war by stealth

It’s telling that despite the apparent political affinity between Krugman and the proponents of MMT, its heresies revived his impulse to play policeman. After long and fruitless exchanges, Krugman declared that MMT was either silly or merely old-fashioned Keynesianism warmed over. In 2020 these doctrinal debates were overtaken by the reality of the Covid shock. In March 2020, as more than twenty million Americans lost their jobs in a matter of weeks, Congress united around a gigantic fiscal stimulus.

But despite any change Krugman still believes in his God. The "Krugmanisation of the Democrats", as Tooze calls it, should illustrate to those of us with class based politics that states spending more money is not anti-capitalist, but rather the reverse, it is done with the aim to support capital.
The confusion of loads of social-democrats over Biden and Johnson shows that they have not grasped this point,