CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
QE has caused asset huge inflation - to the point where people can no longer afford to buy houses (unless they already have one or ten). Simply that.
Global financial system implosion begins
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CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
And another thing - I was chatting to my brother re the 1970s - the beginning of which neither of us clearly remember as we were at school. I mentioned the "Barber Boom" which seems to have condensed all the evils of the last 15 years into a couple of years of the Ted Heath Administration.
He pointed me to a rare book which gave all the gory details. 60 regional and secondary UK banks went bust. Rolls Royce went bust - so Heath nationalised it.
I remember the 1974 general elections. The first one I was in Assam on what they now call a "gap" year.
The second one I was helping the Liberal candidate in Manchester Central.
In neither election did the economy seem to figure as it would now. It was all about the unions and prices and incomes controls (because of the inflation).
He pointed me to a rare book which gave all the gory details. 60 regional and secondary UK banks went bust. Rolls Royce went bust - so Heath nationalised it.
I remember the 1974 general elections. The first one I was in Assam on what they now call a "gap" year.
The second one I was helping the Liberal candidate in Manchester Central.
In neither election did the economy seem to figure as it would now. It was all about the unions and prices and incomes controls (because of the inflation).
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
OK so how do these two positions relate? If you believe that QE has caused huge assets inflation is it not (at least in part) related to the current crisis?
Are you saying that the economy was not an issue in 74? Or that what was meant by 'the economy' was different in 1974 to 2022 (and 2008)?
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
I am saying that economic news in 1974 took the form of union protest, the Industrial Relations Court, the collapse of the stock market and the oil crisis. Nobody knew what the money supply was (to my recollection).
What I had singled out in Starky's broadcast was asset inflation - which is not the same as the current immediate crisis of shortages and a massive electricity and gas price spike.
Appreciate you may be autistic. I have borderline personality disorder, PTSD and bipolar disorder.
Instead of shouting "answer my question" go on a Barrister's course (or a Barrista's course).
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
In the 70s the Conservative government controlled prices as well as private-sector wages. It was like a whole different world compared to day:
"In the period before legislation was passed there would be a freeze, effective immediately, on prices, wages, dividends and rents, Mr Heath said. The freeze applies to prices and charges for goods and services provided by both the private and public sector."
"In the period before legislation was passed there would be a freeze, effective immediately, on prices, wages, dividends and rents, Mr Heath said. The freeze applies to prices and charges for goods and services provided by both the private and public sector."
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
Yes well after that he did something even more unusual - there was an across-the-board pay rise awarded on the bais of 4% + £10 (or possibly £6) - per week. I was working in the Manchester City Art Galleries as an attendant and my weekly wage went from £20 to £30 at a stroke. I really don't think they knew what they were doing - but they had ended up in the three day week. I also remember that - I was working in the lab at the British Sugar refinery in Bury St Edmunds - immediately before I went to India. The sugar refinery had power 24/7 and continuous working as an essential industry but street lights went off at midnight in the town and TV went off at 10.30 pm.
So you know what's coming !
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
I don't remember seeing this here - but then I am late to the party
libcom.org
Evading Standards spoof newspaper, 1999
Spoof of the Evening Standard, by Reclaim the Streets to advertise the Carnival against Capitalism on June 18, 1999.
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
gosub
~#
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
Thus us a very old act - consider this 1983 big seller, by LBC's then investment guru Bob Beckman
Bob was a much more lively rival to "Thought for the Day " on Radio 4.
His preachy style was: "Property is going to crash - sell your house and get a council house. Don;t invest in equities - the stock exchange is like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls etc etc"
Bracing stuff, which unfortunately proved totally wrong. Surely everyone now would be delighted if a house in London still cost c £25,000?
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
Have you read the book? It's all about immanent doom.
True Bob does gloat over the 1929 crash - but he was actually preaching the Michael Milken gospel.
Don;t buy equities - buy junk bonds. And look where that led!
There are always people preaching doom and there are always people saying it’s all about to go to the moon. At any point in time, there is somebody saying expect an imminent 50% collapse and there is somebody advising you to put it all into the latest fad. It’s worth remembering, however, that the market is overall made up of the balance of these people, and the prices already reflect the current average view of things.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
You reckon there are people saying it's all about to go to the moon? (Apart from people at Cape Canaveral, that is, and look how that worked out last week.)
I dunno, some weeks really are not like other weeks and this time it looks as if it really isn't a good idea to bet on the market ending up somewhere around the middle.
Or next week, either.
They both look a bit shit, tbh.
On my news feed, there are endless op ed pieces about how “last time the chart looked like this, the S&P increased 20% by the end of the year and 49% in three years!!1!”
Equally, there are tonnes of ones saying, “this guy who predicted 13 of the last 2 crashes says it’s going to crash!”
There are lots of views about what is going to happen. The current price reflects the average view. For every seller at a given point, there is a buyer. If most people thought it was going to crash, it would immediately crash to the point that reflected that view. You could say, indeed, that is what has already happened since the beginning of this year.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
True, I guess, and beachside properties in Florida are still going at a premium.
gosub
~#
Nominally, good advice. However US has met the the textbook definition of a recession over the last 2 quarters. White House reaction has been a bit King Canute (with an apology to King Canute - he was fucked off with them's blowing smoke up his arse apparently).
Quite hard to believe the interest rate hikes in this quarter would lead to an increase of growth....And that's just the quarterlies , last couple of years they've been calling 2-3% growth with 9-10% inflation "Growth". And that's just the US, UK and EU have been similar, let alone China where data can be best described as opaque and unreliable, while they have been going through a shit storm...
And people know all this. It’s not a special hidden secret only known to the select few.
To pick an example that argues the other way: in a high inflationary environment, the safest place to be is in shares. Companies sell the things that are inflating in value, so their income goes up with inflation and the dividends follow. Shares are as close to inflation-proofing as you’re going to get. By contrast, cash is just losing value every day in real terms. High inflation thus makes shares more attractive, relatively speaking.
gosub
~#
Disagree. Inflationary set up we've had, safest place to be was property. Though during pandemic when they literally did do helicopter money to the public (as opposed to the usual theoretical) a lot of it still ended up in the markets....on things like Gamestop or NFT's.
Even then I'd say it was residential property over commercial property. Banks would have some real headaches if all the the commercial property loans on their books went zombie. Has been a limiting factor on the amount of social change possible coming out of pandemic...They are not trying to encourage people back to the office bacause, as CUmmings would have it they need people to commute to sell papers... And yet this bubble which benefits those already on the housing ladder leaves those NOT having to hope their speculative investments in things like cyrpto NFT's Gamestop (and other things they don't fully understand will keep a roof over their head
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Property is a terrible investment, on the whole. Unless you mean property investment funds, which have typically performed about the same as or slightly worse than other sectors.
gosub
~#
I agree it is currently. (also I added to that post)
gosub
~#
Also worth remembering (again) that US has different ideas on debt to UK. After 2008 US you could post the keys through the door of a negative equaty house and walk away - banks problem. Only type of debt they treated similarly student loans....Plus things like CHapter 11 is not a thing on this side of the pond
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
Apparently there is an article in "The Economist" thus week saying that technical analysis is the last refuge of the scoundrel and the no hoper.
Or so their emails say. Even so I don't feel inclined to take the Economist free for three months etc etc.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Technical analysis is reading tea leaves, it's looking at charts and concluding that something is going to go up or down based on whether it's breaking out of it's moving bollinger bands or whatever. It's the opposite of looking at fundamentals or indeed any actual real-world characteristic of the things that you're graphing. The only reason it occasionally works a teeny tiny bit is because some other people think it works. It really has nothing to do with economics or the stuff that The Economist is generally in favour of.
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CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
Technical analysis IS reading the tea leaves.
It's all about trend lines and double bottoms
Pay attention!!
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