discokermit
Well-Known Member
fancy buying shares in a bankrupt company? Bankrupt Hertz to seize on speculation frenzy with $1 billion stock sale
Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
- Start date
HSBC to resume 35,000 job cuts | LinkedIn
HSBC is resuming its plan to lay off 35,000 workers after initially pausing plans in March to support staff during the pandemic.
not-bono-ever
meh
£100Bn expansion to liquidty. rates stay flat. no discussion of going into negative territory.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
World's ultra-wealthy go for gold amid stimulus bonanza
As stock markets roar back from the coronavirus-led rout, advisers to the world's wealthy are urging them to hold more gold, questioning the strength of the rally and the long-term impact of global central banks' cash splurge.
www.reuters.com
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Must buy a few bars and stick it under the bed
World's ultra-wealthy go for gold amid stimulus bonanza
As stock markets roar back from the coronavirus-led rout, advisers to the world's wealthy are urging them to hold more gold, questioning the strength of the rally and the long-term impact of global central banks' cash splurge.
not-bono-ever
meh
is that what your advisor recommends ?
ringo
Macaroni cheese controller
I'm still trying to work out what this looks like.
My understanding is that if you look at the last big recession in 2008, what slowed the downturn and caused the graphs to rise and the economy to expand again was government interaction such as quantitative easing. The UK & US governments are implementing the same cash injections and liquidity on a much bigger scale now so that the dip is avoided or at least reduced to a sharp V shape.
I'm not sure it can be avoided, but the US stock market has rebounded and the Nasdaq is at record highs already.
Is that sustainable when unemployment stays at extremely high levels over a longer period of time and the small businesses which could re-emply them go bankrupt.
Will the big corporations hoover up the business and leave the workers unemployed? Is this the wealth gap being expanded exponentially?
Has there ever been a deep recession without a finacial crisis? I'm not sure it's possible.
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Me too.
And in the UK by paying the wages of millions of furloughed workers.
As I said upthread not sure what the numbers even mean without price discovery. There's a massive "misallocation" of capital with near zero interest rates, relaxed banking reserve requirements and interventionist central banks determined to protect the price of certain asset classes. On the plus side it has proven that Modern Monetary Theory has legs.
Even many large businesses that have been heavily indebted by private equity firms are at risk.
Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First
MINNEAPOLIS—Calling for a more measured way to express opposition to police brutality, critics slammed demonstrators Thursday for recklessly looting businesses without forming a private equity firm first. “Look, we all have the right to protest, but that doesn’t mean you can just rush in and...
www.theonion.com
The wealth gap is becoming like the 1920s.
Ideologically I can't see the Tory party making the decisions necessary to avoid a financial crisis.
ringo
Macaroni cheese controller
I suspect the interventions will be time sensitive. They will last for a few months but any extended period of financial downturn and volatility will eventually make them fail to stop the recession. If there is no vaccine and social distancing goes on into next year I think enough small businesses will go under worldwide to trigger a massive global depression that lasts years.
I don't believe the Tories will do anything useful, especially with the Brexit fiasco looming.
I have a personal interest - I inherited some British American Tobacco shares 3 years ago, much to my surprise. I didn't want shares in them so sold them and reinvested the money away from the UK in US tech shares, mainly in the Nasdaq, because that's what I know about.
I'm surprised to see them at record highs right now and am currently planning to sell at least my initial investment before the (probably) inevitable collapse. I suspect late July will be the peak, especially given the US elections approaching after the summer, but who knows.
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ska invita
back on the other side
Prospering in the pandemic: the top 100 companies
Prospering in the pandemic: the top 100 companies
The first in an FT series on corporate resilience in a year of human and economic devastation
Death of the high street basically looks like (and hospitality/events, but i don't think that shows on shares that much)
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ringo
Macaroni cheese controller
Yes, 20 years in the internet industry suggested to me that the future was AI, the cloud, cashless internet shopping and technological advances roughly as predicted by William Gibson. So I invested in them. The pandemic has accelerated the inevitable imo.
But 3 years of watching the markets and learning about them means that I now see how fragile, unscientific and plain bonkers the markets are, so I reckon that although I know which companies will be big in ten/twenty years time it would be prudent to back out now at least halfway to a position of safety and take the profits until the chaos subsides and it's time to jump back in.
Of course I now find myself trying to catch the peak, which is a strategy doomed to failure.
Donald Trump is accelerating the inevitable.
Keep thinking of the Jackpot in William Gibson's The Peripheral
"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions - Paul Samuelson."
"Never bet against the Fed"
An obscure Brixton based baby-eating anarchist forum is always a solid choice for investment advice.
Yes, things are bad politically and economically. 40 million Americans newly claimed unemployment benefits in the last couple of months.
Thousands of businesses are going bankrupt. A cascade of bad loans, debts and mortgages.
But Federal Reserve monetary policy determines the stock market. Could be new record highs next year.
ska invita
back on the other side
...especially one waiting expectantly for systemic collapse
ringo
Macaroni cheese controller
I'm not looking for advice here, but I guessed a few IT people here might have wondered if a life reading Gibson could help predict the future 
Just pondering the impending collapse of the markets, and as you say, they'll go and the recession will follow. If the Fed's input fails.
Plus of course this thread has been predicting the financial system implosion for 12 years. I don't think it will be allowed to happen, not for the rich anyway.
Just pondering the impending collapse of the markets, and as you say, they'll go and the recession will follow. If the Fed's input fails.
Plus of course this thread has been predicting the financial system implosion for 12 years. I don't think it will be allowed to happen, not for the rich anyway.
Things need to change.
William Gibson is a good writer and a lot of his ideas have become reality.I'm not looking for advice here, but I guessed a few IT people here might have wondered if a life reading Gibson could help predict the future
Prefer the writing styles and more well rounded characters from Ken MacLeod & Richard K Morgan.
With effective unlimited Federal Reserve liquidity plus dollar liquidity lines and foreign-currency liquidity lines in place with their allied Central Banks, the only way it'll fail is if a leverage point breaks and the machine stops.
To be fair a lot of the issues from the Financial Crisis of 2008 are still unresolved. RBS is still majority owned by the state.
I find this thread an excellent antidote to the wider media’s unthinking enthusiastic embrace of all things market.
I do think, however, that although individual companies will rise and fall and although sentiment will drive valuations of indices up and down, capital as a whole will continue to make profits off the exploitation of their workers, and that will continue to manifest as dividends in the worldwide equity markets. That’s the bit that seems to be easily forgotten about on this particular forum (which is kind of odd for a place that recognises exploitation for what it is). The only way the market as a whole is going to give negative returns is if workers force companies to reduce their capital efficiency. I look forward to that day and, when it comes, the value of my equities will be the last thing I’ll care about. In the meantime, even recessions are just part of the wheels of the machine.
I do think, however, that although individual companies will rise and fall and although sentiment will drive valuations of indices up and down, capital as a whole will continue to make profits off the exploitation of their workers, and that will continue to manifest as dividends in the worldwide equity markets. That’s the bit that seems to be easily forgotten about on this particular forum (which is kind of odd for a place that recognises exploitation for what it is). The only way the market as a whole is going to give negative returns is if workers force companies to reduce their capital efficiency. I look forward to that day and, when it comes, the value of my equities will be the last thing I’ll care about. In the meantime, even recessions are just part of the wheels of the machine.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
A position also taken by Karl Marx I believe.
It reminds me of the guy at work who puts money on the other team most Saturdays.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
you'll all be joining fascist organisations when your pensions go tits up.
Idaho
blah blah blah
It's a tried and trusted response for us middle folk.
Idaho
blah blah blah
The biggest US banks have more money than they know what to do with:
Banks swimming in money
Meanwhile, according to an industry insider who did an internal webcast I listened to, there is a widespread understanding that about two thirds of European banks are in a state of distress.
Banks swimming in money
Meanwhile, according to an industry insider who did an internal webcast I listened to, there is a widespread understanding that about two thirds of European banks are in a state of distress.
ska invita
back on the other side
this seems so obvious to me, and i know very little and care even less - how/why are traders "misreading" and "mispricing" and ignoring being told as much?
Not sure that "they" are to be honest? With everything underwritten by the state.
Capitalist's eye view in Bloomberg that state intervention is interfering with markets rather than being the only gig in town?
Idaho
blah blah blah
Because it's the job of hundreds of thousands of people to invest in X segment of the process, not to try and change the way it all works. They have been given as much free credit as they want and must get a return.
ska invita
back on the other side
I get that, in which case shouldn't everyone be selling as stock prices are higher than they should be?
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