Global financial system implosion begins

[Idaho]

sub prime collapse round 2 though isnt it? on top of everything?

Probably not sub prime. More likely banks will be targeting higher value assets.

 

[yield]

Yep. Real assets exchanged for bank generated funny money. QE is a scam rigged by billionaires and bankers.

I'm not denying that it's a scam "rigged by billionaires and bankers"

Don't understand how the money is any funnier than other monies? It's just MMT done wrong surely?

Privatising profits and socialising losses isn't new.

 

[Idaho]

I'm not denying that it's a scam "rigged by billionaires and bankers"

Don't understand how the money is any funnier than other monies? It's just MMT done wrong surely?

Privatising profits and socialising losses isn't new.

I suppose if there are fractional reserve rules, then the total money lent by banks (and hence created) has at least some relationship to the government "fiat". Even if that fiat is in itself being debased.

Currently the fiat base is being expanded at record pace and banks are free to create at will. I can't see how this won't be inflationary - once the current deflationary dip passes.

 

[yield]

I suppose if there are fractional reserve rules, then the total money lent by banks (and hence created) has at least some relationship to the government "fiat". Even if that fiat is in itself being debased.

Currently the fiat base is being expanded at record pace and banks are free to create at will. I can't see how this won't be inflationary - once the current deflationary dip passes.

Demand destruction is the problem now. Can't see any inflationary pressure with the bad loans and defaults about to happen.

Happy to proven wrong as always!

 

[ska invita]

I can't see how this won't be inflationary - once the current deflationary dip passes.

biggest recession in 300 years people are calling it....might be a good long while before anything passes...Some people are talking about 2 years before a vaccine....

 

[dilberto]

Recession is generally defined as a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

 

[ska invita]

Recession is generally defined as a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Well prepare for what could be 12 quarters

 

[Idaho]

biggest recession in 300 years people are calling it....might be a good long while before anything passes...Some people are talking about 2 years before a vaccine....

What happened 300 years ago?

 

[two sheds]

The Great Recession of 1720

 

[ska invita]

What happened 300 years ago?

great frost of 1709
(doesnt say what happened in 1706)

 

[Sprocket.]

The South Sea Bubble. Share prices greatly overinflated when the South Sea Co took over the unconsolidated national debt of Britain. Can history repeat itself?

 

[Idaho]

The South Sea Bubble. Share prices greatly overinflated when the South Sea Co took over the unconsolidated national debt of Britain. Can history repeat itself?

Not in 1706... South sea company wasn't founded until 1711.

 

[Sprocket.]

Not in 1706... South sea company wasn't founded until 1711.

sorry meant to quote from above post, ‘what happened 300 years ago?’

 

[platinumsage]

Not in 1706... South sea company wasn't founded until 1711.

1706 was the Battle of Ramillies in an ongoing expensive war. and bad harvests due to weather (a heatwave and drought until the end of August and then storms in September).

 

[Flavour]

I think it's fair to say that crashes from the 18th century are not comparable to now given the amount of debt, financial instruments, globalized real time chain reactions, lack of gold standard, etc

 

[Idaho]

Also not comparable as we are massively more wealthy and healthy now. We would need to lose 90% of our wealth and productivity to return to anything like the 18th century.

 

[teuchter]

And they didn't even have videoconferencing in the 1700s.

 

[kabbes]

And they didn't even have videoconferencing in the 1700s.

They didn’t even have email

 

[ska invita]

US unemployment hits 36 million claimants

this is one mad graph

 

[yield]

One in four US workers claiming jobless benefits
14 May 2020

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits jumped by almost 3 million last week as virus shutdowns continue to weigh on the US economy.

The filings brought the total number of new jobless claims since the middle of March to more than 36 million.

That amounts to nearly a quarter of the American workforce.

As euro zone recession deepens, ECB to scale up bond buying next month
May 15, 2020

(Reuters) - The euro zone economy’s worst recession on record will be even deeper than forecast less than a month ago, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the European Central Bank will ramp up its bond-buying again next month.

The euro zone economy is expected to contract 7.5% in 2020, more than the 5.4% predicted three weeks ago, with the worst of the blow expected this quarter.

After contracting 3.8% in January-March, its sharpest quarter-on-quarter decline since 1995, the economy was shown in the latest poll shrinking by 11.3% in April-June, more than the 9.6% predicted last month.

The economy is not expected to make up for that in the second half of this year or next, growing 7.2% and 2.8% in the third and final quarters of 2020, respectively.

But the worst-case scenario has the economy contracting in Q3 as well as Q2, while stagnating in Q4, showing powerful downside risks to forecasts.

 

[yield]

Coronavirus could deliver $8.8 trillion hit to global economy without government intervention, bank says Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
Independent. May 15, 2020

Coronavirus could cut global economic output by as much as $8.8 trillion (£7.3 trillion), with the outlook having worsened significantly in the past month, the Asian Development Bank has said.

The bank warned on Friday that Covid-19 would result in $5.8 trillion to $8.8 trillion of lost gross domestic product ⁠– or 6.4 per cent to 9.7 per cent of the world’s output. That’s more than twice as bad as the ADB forecast in April.

However, government measures to mitigate the economic impact could reduce that figure by as much as 40 per cent, ADB’s chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.

As some countries, including the UK, lay out plans to ease lockdowns and get more people back to work, Mr Sawada cautioned that containing the pandemic is key to reducing the economic cost.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere

The neoliberal era is ending. What comes next?

In a crisis, what was once unthinkable can suddenly become inevitable. We’re in the middle of the biggest societal shakeup since the second world war. And neoliberalism is gasping its last breath. So from higher taxes for the wealthy to more robust government, the time has come for ideas that...

thecorrespondent.com

 

[redsquirrel]

We were talking about that on the society thread in the UK. Some of initial points are good but where the politics ends up is not good, basically centre-left lesser-evilism. Very much voting for Biden, Starmer, etc

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere

The neoliberal era is ending. What comes next?

In a crisis, what was once unthinkable can suddenly become inevitable. We’re in the middle of the biggest societal shakeup since the second world war. And neoliberalism is gasping its last breath. So from higher taxes for the wealthy to more robust government, the time has come for ideas that...

thecorrespondent.com

we're not in the middle of the biggest societal change since fuck knows when, we've much of the beginning and the middle yet to look forward to

 

[Pickman's model]

We were talking about that on the society thread in the UK. Some of initial points are good but where the politics ends up is not good, basically centre-left lesser-evilism. Very much voting for Biden, Starmer, etc

yeh you'll know there's been a big societal change when the auld systems no longer exist

 

[not-bono-ever]

The shit old adage about socialism and other people’s money is quickly forgotten when capital fucks up and needs bailed out.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

The shit old adage about socialism and other people’s money is quickly forgotten when capital fucks up and needs bailed out.

The same people are big on personal responsibility too, until its a an airline or an oil company that made bad decisions and acted irresponsibly.

 

[yield]

U.S. mulls paying companies, tax breaks to pull supply chains from China or Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
May 18, 2020

(Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers and officials are crafting proposals to push American companies to move operations or key suppliers out of China that include tax breaks, new rules, and carefully structured subsidies.

Interviews with a dozen current and former government officials, industry executives and members of Congress show widespread discussions underway - including the idea of a “reshoring fund” originally stocked with $25 billion - to encourage U.S. companies to drastically revamp their relationship with China.

But the Trump administration itself remains divided over how best to proceed, and the issue is unlikely to be addressed in the next fiscal stimulus to offset the coronavirus downturn. Congress has begun work on another fiscal stimulus package but it remains unclear when it might pass.

The push takes on special resonance in an election year. While anti-China, pro-American job proposals could play well with voters, giving taxpayer money or tax breaks to companies that moved supply chains to China at a time when small business is flailing may not.

 

[yield]

Mortgage delinquencies surge by 1.6M in April, the biggest monthly jump ever or Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
USA TODAY. May 21, 2020

Delinquencies among borrowers for past-due mortgages are soaring, a sign that Americans are struggling to pay their bills due to a wave of layoffs or lost income from the coronavirus pandemic.

Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who aren’t in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didn’t make a mortgage payment in April.

At 6.45%, the national delinquency rate nearly doubled from 3.06% in March, the largest single-month increase ever recorded, and nearly three times the prior record for a single month during the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, Black Knight said.

For context, it took more than 18 months before the first 1.6 million homeowners became delinquent during the Great Recession, says Andy Walden, economist and director of market research at Black Knight. And there is still potential for a second wave of delinquencies in May, he added.

 

[not-bono-ever]

the free market will sort it out im sure