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Global financial system implosion begins

Italy to wind up two failing banks at potential cost of €17bn
Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza, blighted by bad loans and a mis-selling scandal, will open as usual on Monday, says finance minister
25/06/17
The Italian government is stepping in to wind up two failing lenders and prevent a bank run, at a total cost of up to €17bn (£15bn).

After an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday, ministers agreed to a decree splitting Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ banks, keeping branches open.
The ‘good’ assets are being acquired by Italy’s biggest retail bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, with the Italian government handing about €5bn to Intesa as part of the deal.

The lenders will then be liquidated, which leaves the state footing the bill for bad loans on both banks’ books, plus restructuring costs.

The Italian government would provide state guarantees worth up to €12bn to cover potential losses at the ‘bad’ bank, Pier Carlo Padoan, the finance minister, told reporters in Rome. That means the total cost could reach €17bn.
There's many more European banks with bad loans on their books.
 
China - over the weekend following the Anbang antics, a handful of other massively stretched multis have effectively been blacklisted by central command until further notice. The company and its mates are being talked up by its investors- too big to fail has been uttered publicly - if this is allowed to go under, then it will drag the entire Chinese economy down with it as there are too many similar corporates on the margins. This could be a Chinese ( and therefore global) crash in the making. Its survival is likely dependent upon the banks being instructed to prop this corporate vassal up. this is worth watching
 
China - over the weekend following the Anbang antics, a handful of other massively stretched multis have effectively been blacklisted by central command until further notice. The company and its mates are being talked up by its investors- too big to fail has been uttered publicly - if this is allowed to go under, then it will drag the entire Chinese economy down with it as there are too many similar corporates on the margins. This could be a Chinese ( and therefore global) crash in the making. Its survival is likely dependent upon the banks being instructed to prop this corporate vassal up. this is worth watching
Yeh. And what do repressive regimes famously do when things aren't going too well at home - wouldn't be surprised if China ups the ante on the nine dash line
 
Owner is still MIA I think - he is married to old CP top dog Dengs granddaughter / daughter - the layering of the CP upper echelons and these companies ownership profiles is seriously incestuous - they will be bailed out I am sure, but there will be a visit by bad man & some 5AM banging on the doors for some senior managers .This genuinely could explode if not caught now.
 
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/fsr/2017/fsrjun17sum.pdf

A dull read as ever and this is just the highlights - surprisingly cautious - lots of triggers concerning household unsecured debt- interesting statement that lower interest rates have improved punters credit ratings , leading to increase in borrowing - warning about downturns could see a snap change in consumer credit profile, many business factoring in unrealistic low rates for longer term than is really sensible when forecasting. for you dullards out there as you know, it is usually what is not being said that is interesting, this however is expressly discussing the friability of the economy given the likelihood of significant systemic events popping up.I could chuck up some weak pun about the fat tails wagging the dog, but it would be just shit


"Measures of uncertainty implied by options prices are low
(see Asset valuations chapter). Often in periods of low
volatility, risks are building and later become apparent"

"In the United Kingdom, ten-year real government bond
yields are at around -2% (Chart D). Long-term real rates
are low across the G7. These levels are consistent with
pessimistic growth expectations and high perceived tail
risks"
 
Yeh. And what do repressive regimes famously do when things aren't going too well at home - wouldn't be surprised if China ups the ante on the nine dash line

Very likely.

Anecdotally, there are signs that the leadership is nervous - there is very little dissent here, so all I can take away is that they are expecting trouble ahead. Over the last 2 years, control over the internet has been tightening (which may or may not be related to my vpn woes) and they seem to be trying to limit the presence of foreigners in China who may spread alternative narratives. In 2015 a campaign against western values in the classroom was started, with many books being banned. Since then I've been contacting by several English schools begging me to help them find English teachers because there is such a shortage, and I know of a few people who have been refused a work visa despite no problems in the past. Also, I just don't see as many foreigners around as I did a few years ago. And at my university, there are tighter rules compared to last year and foreign students are (theoretically) supposed to apply for permission to visit downtown or for holding gatherings of more than 10 people, including birthdays.

Oh yeah and livestreaming apps are being shut down.

The weird thing is though, approval of the government seems to be at an all time high and dissent is rare. So why all the paranoia? Makes me think they know a huge crash is coming and are preparing for it.
 
WSJ link is blocked for subscribers innit - Evergrande RE are fucked quite frankly, paying nearly 9% on a junk issuance of $6bn is a sign that should worry everyone. their structure and numbers are at best opaque, at worst, moribund and in a death spiral. they are a bit of a bellweather due to their size and profile
 
"Global financial system implosion begins" - putting a wry smile of the faces of pessimists for a decade.

Well yes, but it's all too likely to happen again at some point and it could be very soon, if recent posts are anything to go by simply because of the way capitalism works. The lessons were probably learnt from 2008 but nobody wants to take the medicine.
 
lots of windows in that there city that could be utilised -And traditional execution spots in the 'hood could be given the Laurence Llewelyn-Bowen treatment and got ready for use again

seriously though, I think something grim is looming that may well require a major intervention. if you have time, skim the BoE FS summary above - it is the most pessimistic and loaded with warnings that I have seen for some time
 
I follow other stuff that give me a perspective on what is going on - the art market is going nuts ( You want a an uninspired one line joke signed banksy print that cost £50 a decade ago, then you need £20k ) are cars are outlandish ( you want a proley '80s RS 2000? , then you need £20K to get a foot in the door). all fuelled by a decade of virtually free money, a generation has grown up being able borrow for pennies, knowing nothing else - yet still cannot afford to buy a basic flat or house. I se the whole system as unwieldy and top heavy ( again ). I fear the worst
 
Cars for sure. Round my way, top range Audis and Freelanders and such are being driven by 22 year olds who are all paying £200+ a month for extended credit...while living at home with parents. My own offspring have slipped into a fatalistic spend rather than save (for them, it seems to be travel)...since the traditional savings goals (a house) are just so utterly beyond any possibility unless they suddenly land £150K pa jobs. Have heard rumours that the car market will be going the same route as the US subprime crash.
 
Cars ain't remotely the same as the subprime crash, though it won't be pretty.

When you can't make the payments on a PCP or lease any more, the car - the asset - returns to the finance company, who in many but by no means all instances is the manufacturer. Better for them in some ways, but not others, that it's someone else, a bank. It continues to exist as a commodity but if this happens en masse then the oversupply devalues both used cars and, by opportunity, puts a brake on selling new ones. Not only that, but as well as the general appetite to either offer or take finance reducing, the GFV of finance arrangements declines too and so the financing requirement for a purchase increases. All in all, not just a financial hit, but also very hard to sell cars at a profit. If the manufacturer can't ride that pattern out - or indeed manipulate it by, say, destroying its returned cars - they'll go bust. There ends the tale.

There will be some outstanding personal consumer debt involved here - the negative equity on early termination - but it's strictly finite and comparatively small compared to mortgages. Most consumers won't lose their shirts.

Aside from the scale, unlike housing, there's no speculative or leveraged element to it, the assets are transferable commodities, a default isn't so simple, finance terms are fixed for the duration of the loan, the owner of the debt is probably generally better contained, the societal outcome isn't as disruptive, etc etc.

But if it does fail en masse, it will put a big dent in confidence, on which the economy depends, and therefore could be a trigger for other bigger failures.
 
Italy to wind up two failing banks at potential cost of €17bn
Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza, blighted by bad loans and a mis-selling scandal, will open as usual on Monday, says finance minister
25/06/17


There's many more European banks with bad loans on their books.
"The Italian government is putting up €17bn in public money (from the ‘magic money tree’) to bail out two Venetian banks. The banks will not be nationalised, but instead handed over to Intesa Sanpaolo Spa, Italy’s biggest bank, for the token sum of one euro! Intesa will guarantee the cash deposits of the Venetian banks, but it will sack several thousand bank employees, while getting 900 new branches and billions in financial guarantees from the government. Intesa will take over all the performing loans from the Venetian banks, while the state gets to keep all the bad debts that it must either write off or try to collect over time.

So yet again, the reckless activities of some banks and the stagnation of the economy that made many companies unable to pay their debts are to be ‘resolved’ by the state stumping up the cash. The bailout is equivalent to 1% of Italy’s GDP, adding yet more to the size of Italy’s already massive public sector debt of 135% of GDP. Intesa gets some cleaned-up banks for just one euro, just as JP Morgan got the banking network of Bear Stearns in the global financial crash for one dollar – all paid for by taxes or government borrowing. The state and the people get nothing for their €17bn.

What is even more ironic is that the Italian deal breaks the very banking rules set up by the EU governments after the global financial crash to avoid bank investors (bondholders) being bailed out at taxpayer expense.
....
Thus we have another bank bailout, nine years since the global financial crash that nationalizes the losses caused by the bankers and privatizes gains for those bankers remaining: exactly what EU banking union rules were meant to stop. Thousands of bank employees will be out of work; but bank investors and bondholders are laughing all the way to the new bank. The state racks up more debt and thus increases the pressure to introduce more austerity to service the debt. And other bankers know that, if they make a mess of things, they can escape with a state bailout and carry on as before.

more (including how fucked the rest of italian banking is) The Italian job
 
Over the last 2 years, control over the internet has been tightening (which may or may not be related to my vpn woes) and they seem to be trying to limit the presence of foreigners in China who may spread alternative narratives. In 2015 a campaign against western values in the classroom was started, with many books being banned. Since then I've been contacting by several English schools begging me to help them find English teachers because there is such a shortage, and I know of a few people who have been refused a work visa despite no problems in the past. Also, I just don't see as many foreigners around as I did a few years ago. And at my university, there are tighter rules compared to last year and foreign students are (theoretically) supposed to apply for permission to visit downtown or for holding gatherings of more than 10 people, including birthdays.

I highly doubt that the tightening of work visas are much to do with worries that a load of English teachers are going to spread dissenting values. For one thing although they are tightening in some areas they are supposedly making it easier for "top talent" to come and stay long term (although we need to see how that plays out). And the tightening of visa requirements, that you need a degree, two years experience and the fact that if you are a TEFL teacher you need to be a native speaker far more disproportionally affects people from Africa, South America and the rest of Asia, instead of those from countries who's citizens may be more liable to spread "western values". I think its more likely that the government decided there were too many unqualified teachers and imposed a rather fanciful set of requirements, which meant that there would never be enough qualified people to meet the demand, especially given the terms and conditions offered by many schools.
 
I highly doubt that the tightening of work visas are much to do with worries that a load of English teachers are going to spread dissenting values. For one thing although they are tightening in some areas they are supposedly making it easier for "top talent" to come and stay long term (although we need to see how that plays out). And the tightening of visa requirements, that you need a degree, two years experience and the fact that if you are a TEFL teacher you need to be a native speaker far more disproportionally affects people from Africa, South America and the rest of Asia, instead of those from countries who's citizens may be more liable to spread "western values". I think its more likely that the government decided there were too many unqualified teachers and imposed a rather fanciful set of requirements, which meant that there would never be enough qualified people to meet the demand, especially given the terms and conditions offered by many schools.

Could be, but it has also coincided with the campaign against western values in the classrooms, which makes me a little suspicious. It varies regionally, but I've heard some odd stories from peace corps volunteers at universities in Guizhou about being forbidden contact with students outside of class and having quite draconian rules introduced. It could be down to a particularly zealous party boss at that particular college, but over the past few years it does seem to be part of the overall trend. Even if trying to improve the standards of foreign teachers was the main cause, reducing the total number of unharmonious foreigners in positions to influence people is probably seen as a happy side effect too.

e2a: I suspect the reasoning behind it is, try to attract more "top talent" while reducing the total amount of foreigners in China. Maximise the benefit of hiring skilled foreigners while reducing the risks of having too many.
 
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