Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
- Start date
not-bono-ever
meh
London pushes for Shanghai stock link - China.org.cn
Might be worth watching this project- a high profile but not really know about stock trading link + depositary reciept business between the exchanges- the Chinese are stalling on formally annoucing this is a live one. Lots of work already been done, with big bucks feasibility being carried out by the LSE amongst others. The Chinese were tugged off by Said Javid in mammoth masurbation sessions over this about a year ago, now murmers of the plug being pulled or delayed are rife from the PRC to beaurocrats due to hesitancy over London and the related passporting requirements. This being delayed would be a big loss of face for the London lot. The Chinese are making strong ( in Chinese terms) demands to the UK government that this is not to be taken for granted.
Might be worth watching this project- a high profile but not really know about stock trading link + depositary reciept business between the exchanges- the Chinese are stalling on formally annoucing this is a live one. Lots of work already been done, with big bucks feasibility being carried out by the LSE amongst others. The Chinese were tugged off by Said Javid in mammoth masurbation sessions over this about a year ago, now murmers of the plug being pulled or delayed are rife from the PRC to beaurocrats due to hesitancy over London and the related passporting requirements. This being delayed would be a big loss of face for the London lot. The Chinese are making strong ( in Chinese terms) demands to the UK government that this is not to be taken for granted.
hipipol
Peckham Wry
Big prob would be vetting potential players on the link and stopping money from flooding out of china - even into sterling assets the return would be better from pretty much everything listed in London.
Cant see it ever actually happening - lots of probs and low vols on the Shanghai-HK link as it is and the Chinese control both ends of that one
ska invita
back on the other side
"Banks stocks are rallying this morning, with JP Morgan up 4% and Goldman Sachs gaining 2%.
They’re benefitting from speculation that the Republicans could ditch Dodd-Frank, the legislation brought in to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis."
They’re benefitting from speculation that the Republicans could ditch Dodd-Frank, the legislation brought in to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis."
hipipol
Peckham Wry
Not sure where you read that - the rally for Banks seems to be based on the notion that Trump will issue bonds to pay for his massive infrastructure promises thus introducing inflationary pressure, raising rates - any change like that - coupled with the deranged rise in USD values since the Trumpocalipse - means heavy pressure on companies to re-arrange their debts - fat fees for Bankers. Probably makes shares in Champagne manufacturers a good buy - correlated trade eh?"Banks stocks are rallying this morning, with JP Morgan up 4% and Goldman Sachs gaining 2%.
They’re benefitting from speculation that the Republicans could ditch Dodd-Frank, the legislation brought in to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis."
ska invita
back on the other side
widely reported
some random links - google for more
Trump Vows to 'Dismantle' Dodd-Frank (MET, VFH)
Trump Team Promises To 'Dismantle' Dodd-Frank Bank Regulations
Trump preparing plan to dismantle Obama's Wall Street reform law
not-bono-ever
meh
Whatever happens with trump, and no one knows yet.it will not lead to smaller profits for banks unless they fuck it up themselves
hipipol
Peckham Wry
Not denying the Trumpsters plans but that the conclusion that it is the cause of any bank rally - all the bankers I know believe that a Universal bank ( free of Dodd-Frank, which itself was a replacement - weaker - for the old Glass-Steigel) is a recipe for disaster - Deutsche Banks' attempt to emulate Citigroup has resulted in disaster for them, same goes for Commerz and the now defunct Dresdner - Citi itself fares no better
Markets are like antelopes, very nervous and fleet of foot when panicked with equally tiny heard obsessed brains but the big real money managers like Pimco, Blackrock or The Sage of Omaha et al are unlikely to pile in
There is a bias in US indexes which allows froth, basically day trading, HFT prop houses, futures and option markets (Chicago needs massive toxin removal therapy/violence - VIX addicted HFT creators/operators ) to distort benchmarks ( Libor/Euribor are perfect examples) Its a technical argument but the algo based trading of today bears little or no relation to the underlying fundamentals
Whatever the deluded fantasists around Trump are telling him provided he doesn't mark to market on a daily basis - likely in the short term I admit - the big money still looks at Fair Value and is unlikely to reward madness
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
It is possible he may loosen capital requirements for the banks. In theory this would increase the velocity of money and increase risk taking. Winding us back to something like 2003.
That could create a boom that he might calculate lasting long enough to propel him or his successor to term two. Seems his kind of risk.
That said I would assume a great deal more caution from the fixed income desks this time around.
gosub
~#
That would mean walking away from Basel 3, mind you he's said he's walking away from the Paris Agreement so not impossible. Think we are going to find out more about the framework of Global Governance off Trump wrecking it than through Brexit
not-bono-ever
meh
I would be very surprised if a pull out of Basel 3 is on the cards- though there have been murmurs from the US that B3 is still viewed as a driver for greater procyclicality rather than the reduction that is is designd to assist.fuck knows what the impact would be until it happens, thoug I am sure there are Monte Carlo models chugging away working on the basis of just that premise soemwhere
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Interesting but probably nothing.
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
That's entirely within the range of possibilities given past performance. But, not to worry, the government will bail them out again.
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gosub
~#
Interesting but probably nothing.
Thats mashing two things together so i didn't like. Went to Land registry (right hand data), and tried to do searches on price paid in London, -if your search returns too much data it crashes, so ended up with a comparison of Oct 2015 with Oct 2016 for London everything from 10k parking spots to multimillon pound houses......Arbitary dates but a like for like comparison. Was alarming enough to make me go back a few more years
Oct 2012 - 5178 transactions
Oct 2013 - 7452 transactions
Oct 2014 - 6611 transactions
Oct 2015 - 6920 transactions
Oct 2016 - 1571 transactions
what do they say? If London sneezes the UK catches a cold.
Winter is coming.
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gosub
~#
Will do Sept when get home, fair point
gosub
~#
Possibly some lag. but not good
Sept 2015 : 6921
Sept 2016 : 3772
Been involved in over £1/2 billion in sales, none of it bricks and mortar, but rules is rules. Market has turned.
Buyer holds trump card.
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gosub
~#
Brexit is not the only factor, however the uncertainty from that will last until at least March 2019. The man from Foxtons isn't going to tell you to keep the price as is and he'll twiddle his thumbs for two years....
free spirit
more tea vicar?
not london specific, but the latest property sales stats only show a slight reduction in volume.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...data/file/570511/UK_Tables_Nov_2016__cir_.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...data/file/570511/UK_Tables_Nov_2016__cir_.pdf
free spirit
more tea vicar?
they also say that sales volume figures are published 2 months in arrears, presumably because it takes 2 months for them to all filter into the stats.
gosub
~#
As you say doesn't narrow down to London only England, and on the two month rule those Sept stats are still bad (and accurate).
free spirit
more tea vicar?
erm no, the september stats are only 1 month old. We've not had November stats yet have we?
gosub
~#
you want to say on the 30th November that September was one month ago. FIne I'll re-search tommorow (bad mood, just been trying to explain the technicalities of US constitution to a Trump voter down pub (and not doing US any favours)
gosub
~#
the land registry database updates as filed.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
That tends to be how such statistics work. And as that document says next release 21st Dec I'd not massively hold your breath for it being sorted tomorrow.
gosub
~#
Different department that munches through the same raw data I've been accessing.
Land Registry house price data
2hats
Dust.
The London monthly sales counts for almost the last decade from the (latest) raw Land Registry data(*):
Or all England&Wales sales:
e2a: for amusement, Wales+England-London:
(* Land Registry transaction data available back to 1995)
edit - NB: last two tables incorrect, corrected in post 5625 (note to self - don't overzealously clean data around 3am).
Or all England&Wales sales:
e2a: for amusement, Wales+England-London:
(* Land Registry transaction data available back to 1995)
edit - NB: last two tables incorrect, corrected in post 5625 (note to self - don't overzealously clean data around 3am).
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