bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Ouch.
Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
- Start date
gosub
~#
RBS biggest failure in Bank of England stress test - BBC News A nice bloke on the telly reassuringly explained that it would only really be a problem if house prices and stock market fell like they did after 2008
not-bono-ever
meh
RBS is a bottomless pit that I do not think will be sorted out and costs recouped during my lifetime.
FSB numbers came out as its November- not much happening -Citi & JPM still have the biggest knock on risk, RBS is in the lowest bucket alongside shit like Nordea and Mizuho. So Although RBS is shit, another implosion should not impact anyone else excessively in a domino fashion. But as we know, the sentiment is the killer, not the numbers.
http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/2016-list-of-global-systemically-important-banks-G-SIBs.pdf
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not-bono-ever
meh
The stress tests just pretty much look at the market faces in a range of fat tail events that produce the 1000 year storm of scenarios. except they push the matrix of inputs around until they can see where the banks begin to wheeze, whereas a bank run is sorta a secondary affect of the primary stuff going on - and you can stop a run on a bank quite quickly, if very crudely. This is purely mechanical of course, you cannot easily judge how the banks mates in the industry will react ( apart from shutting down all lines to that institution of course). It is genuinely fascinating from a risk perspective
gosub
~#
Mortgage Approvals at 7-Month High - Guido Fawkes =If we are happy with our numbers, and BoE are happy with theirs....thats a hell of a lot of remortgaging (right at the worst possible time for those involved)
not-bono-ever
meh
remortgaging could be any number of reasons I suppose - not least of which is raising capital against locked in equity to extend rather than move . This is likely to be prevelant in London/SE due the cost of houses. the reports does say that there are a couple of *hotspots* for new buyers- usually in the peripheral areas of the UK which have probably seen the biggest % swings in pricing - both ways - over the past decade.
eta
Big deposits in the SE suggest those firmly on the property ladder are moving their equity with them. Not much access for anyone else , esp low deposit and market entry buyers
"The top location for first-time buyers was Northern Ireland where property prices have remained depressed since the financial crisis.
“Northern Ireland and the North West continue to tussle for the top spot for low deposit borrowers," said Richard Sexton, a director of e.surv chartered surveyors.
"Both areas are great places for young people and first-time buyers to purchase a home. Low house prices and a good variety of housing stock make them an ideal place to buy.”
Yorkshire was the third most popular first-time buyer location.
Elsewhere buyers with larger deposits dominated property purchases in London, the South East and Scotland.
Over 41 per cent of house hunters in the South East and in London came armed with deposits of over 60 per cent, much higher than in any of the other UK regions.
In Scotland 38.3 per cent of all loans were also taken out by large deposit buyers, compared with the 37.9 per cent seen in September. "
eta
Big deposits in the SE suggest those firmly on the property ladder are moving their equity with them. Not much access for anyone else , esp low deposit and market entry buyers
"The top location for first-time buyers was Northern Ireland where property prices have remained depressed since the financial crisis.
“Northern Ireland and the North West continue to tussle for the top spot for low deposit borrowers," said Richard Sexton, a director of e.surv chartered surveyors.
"Both areas are great places for young people and first-time buyers to purchase a home. Low house prices and a good variety of housing stock make them an ideal place to buy.”
Yorkshire was the third most popular first-time buyer location.
Elsewhere buyers with larger deposits dominated property purchases in London, the South East and Scotland.
Over 41 per cent of house hunters in the South East and in London came armed with deposits of over 60 per cent, much higher than in any of the other UK regions.
In Scotland 38.3 per cent of all loans were also taken out by large deposit buyers, compared with the 37.9 per cent seen in September. "
gosub
~#
2hats has England and Wales sales for October at 2869 e.surv house purchase mortgages in October 62,522. Questioning 2hats table.
The stuff I came up with on London I pulled out with queries.
(eta Somebody is paying attention server is handling big queries from at least 6 different people right now).
Yep 2hats posting bollocks data England & Wales Jan 2016 61417 total sales
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bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Mortgage approvals, if they are for a purchase, will likely be two months at least ahead of purchase registrations at Land Registry. Mortgages will be registered at Land Registry as well - anyone been looking at those to identify first and subsequent mortgage ratio?
ETA: I mean mortgage completions will be registered, as distinct from approvals, which come from figures supplied by lenders.
ETA: I mean mortgage completions will be registered, as distinct from approvals, which come from figures supplied by lenders.
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gosub
~#
That Sept figure is a lot higher than 3772 it was a couple of days ago...
Its a speed of administration thing rather than a blip. free spirit and Crispy were right
2hats
Dust.
Yeah, I noticed that didn't look right earlier. Was going to (re)crunch the numbers later. The London figures should be correct though (for Town defined as LONDON).
not-bono-ever
meh
JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole Fined $521 Million Over Euribor
"JPMorgan was fined 337.2 million euros, HSBC got a 33.6 million-euro penalty and Credit Agricole must pay 114.7 million euros"
These utter twats refused to get involved in a bank wide group admission of guilt on the rigging and the prospect of a quick and clean settlement. Now they will not even be offered a 10% discount for early repayment of the fines. The useless macho wankers.
"JPMorgan was fined 337.2 million euros, HSBC got a 33.6 million-euro penalty and Credit Agricole must pay 114.7 million euros"
These utter twats refused to get involved in a bank wide group admission of guilt on the rigging and the prospect of a quick and clean settlement. Now they will not even be offered a 10% discount for early repayment of the fines. The useless macho wankers.
RBS Will Pay Up to $1 Billion Over 2008 Rights Issue Claims
December 5, 2016
Deutsche Bank Records Said to Show Silver Rigging at Other Banks
December 7, 2016
December 5, 2016
Eight years on. How many more skeletons in the closet?
Deutsche Bank Records Said to Show Silver Rigging at Other Banks
December 7, 2016
Why do they hate markets?
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
not-bono-ever
meh
niche markets like bullion are traditionally hugely corrupt and make it difficult for newbies to ensure unless they have been approved by the existing cartel committee. They do not hate markets per se, they hate markets that they cannot influence
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
For the Guardian, reasonable...if a little superficial.
Small point, but Streeck is a sociologist who wishes that his discipline would 're-capture' political economy.
Best quote:-
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I suspect Chakrabortty hasn't yet read the new one given he only quotes from the intro and doesn't seem to be aware it's mostly a collection of previously published pieces - mostly from NLR.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
To busy with the Caravaggio.
not-bono-ever
meh
not an implosion, just an aside- the Scandis have stopped printing banknotes and closed heir last mint, such is the take up of e-payments. Also Interesting is the impact upon the black economy
Scandinavia's Disappearing Cash Act
Scandinavia's Disappearing Cash Act
Italy's Insolvent Monte Paschi To Issue €15 Billion In Debt | Zero Hedge
A taste of what is to come in the U.K. Banking sector.
A taste of what is to come in the U.K. Banking sector.
The devaluation of the pound after Brexit and negative real interest rates for the 1% aren't going to affect the property market bubble.
It's been eight years I'd have thought they'd fully privatise RBS and Lloyds by now?
not-bono-ever
meh
This lot seem to be the next Ponzi to hit the news. Over $1 Bn
No One Questioned This Hedge Fund’s Madoff-Like Returns
2003-2015, they averages 17% return PA with no negative periods. that's pretty fucking good. Seems to have kept a low profile by keeping its clientele within a narrow range of NYC Orthodox Jews and not bringing in anyone who would question things too much as long as the valuations were consistently positive. As it started to fail, they offered backhanders to Unions for their pension fund investments in order to pay out the existing customers from the new pot. This is pretty fuckin basic stuff that is studied in very business A level, as it has been around for more than a century - how did this lot not get netted earlier by the authorities ?
No One Questioned This Hedge Fund’s Madoff-Like Returns
2003-2015, they averages 17% return PA with no negative periods. that's pretty fucking good. Seems to have kept a low profile by keeping its clientele within a narrow range of NYC Orthodox Jews and not bringing in anyone who would question things too much as long as the valuations were consistently positive. As it started to fail, they offered backhanders to Unions for their pension fund investments in order to pay out the existing customers from the new pot. This is pretty fuckin basic stuff that is studied in very business A level, as it has been around for more than a century - how did this lot not get netted earlier by the authorities ?
Ming
I shot a man in Reno...
I got a question (was going to put this in the Brexit forum but its more financial). I got a small inheritance after my dad passed away but it's in the UK in sterling (i'm in Canada). Is the pound likely to devalue anymore after article 50? Its been dropping like a stone since this time last year and i'm pondering whether to leave it in the UK for a few years rather than months. Is this drop a permanent readjustment? I know oil is a factor. Just after any educated opinions.
not-bono-ever
meh
Libor trio to face confiscation orders next month
"Three ex-Barclays bankers who were found guilty last year of Libor-rigging offences now face being stripped of their property when they return to court again next month.
When they were sentenced last July, it was also announced that Jonathan Mathew, Jay Merchant and Alex Pabon would face a confiscation hearing at a later date. City A.M. has learnt that the Serious Fraud Office has set the date for the hearing as 9 February.
Confiscation proceedings take place following a guilty verdict or plea, with their purpose being to take away any assets from defendants which are found to have been obtained as a result of their crime.
Julie Pabon, Alex's wife, slammed the fraud squad over their plans to bring the hearing, telling City A.M.: "It is just a further heartbreaking injustice that accomplishes nothing other than financially ruining our families."
boo fucking hoo
"Three ex-Barclays bankers who were found guilty last year of Libor-rigging offences now face being stripped of their property when they return to court again next month.
When they were sentenced last July, it was also announced that Jonathan Mathew, Jay Merchant and Alex Pabon would face a confiscation hearing at a later date. City A.M. has learnt that the Serious Fraud Office has set the date for the hearing as 9 February.
Confiscation proceedings take place following a guilty verdict or plea, with their purpose being to take away any assets from defendants which are found to have been obtained as a result of their crime.
Julie Pabon, Alex's wife, slammed the fraud squad over their plans to bring the hearing, telling City A.M.: "It is just a further heartbreaking injustice that accomplishes nothing other than financially ruining our families."
boo fucking hoo
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I don't think anyone's really going to be able to tell you authoritatively. The argument goes that a lot of the falls in sterling will effectively "price in" the drop in the pound's value that would result from the actual Brexit process, but this is all so unprecedented that nobody really knows. Best guess is that the final value won't be as bad as the worst of the drops prior to it all being done, but even that's pretty vague, given that we don't actually know what's going to happen between now and Brexit Day (whenever that might turn out to be).
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