General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[butchersapron]

I guess if there is less than a 2% swing Con to Lab, then with Libs tanking and the SNP taking Lab seats then those <2% Lab/Con marginals will not matter so much.

This is supposed to be simply a list of con/labour seats with swing to labour required to take them , no interpretation etc - but i think he's maybe fucked it all up. There are massive gaps - or he's chopped off the first 26.

 

[co-op]

he appears to be assuming that everything under 2% will be won by labour, which means ignoring the top 26 seats. Probably right, but he might as well have listed them

I think this is it, explains the numbers being weird too. Thanks.

 

[belboid]

I've just noticed, the tories are standing in 648 seats - ie all but two. One of those two is Buckingham, Speaker Bercow's seat, so where's the other one?

 

[butchersapron]

Not standing in Femanagh & South Tyrone or Belfast North. Bercow still stands as tory though?

 

[belboid]

Not standing in Femanagh & South Tyrone or Belfast North. Bercow still stands as tory though?

That makes sense - altho Bercow is officially listed as 'Speaker' rather than tory. The beeb must still have him down under his original party

 

[treelover]

Tories have £30bn black hole in spending plans, says IFS
http://www.theguardian.com/business...ve-30bn-black-hole-in-spending-plans-says-ifs

If this had been Labour the media would have savaged them, it still could be electoral dynamite.

 

[The39thStep]

Pre revolutionary situation alert:
http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co....uce-surprise/story-26378714-detail/story.html

 

[The39thStep]

Class War no platformed in Norwich
http://www.classwarparty.org.uk/labour-and-ukip-join-forces-to-no-platform-class-war/

 

[rekil]

King Arthur standing for the "People's Party" in Salisbury. Cheeky royalist.

 

[elbows]

Talking of shit sandwich's here's the key lab/con seats in England and wales and swing required - click 'get data' to download.

Can probably see from that why I'm prepared to go on about my location, Nuneaton, even more than usual in this election. In 2010 Labour parachuted a non-local candidate into the race, they haven't repeated that mistake this time. The candidate this time is very young and very local.

Having said that, I'm not sure that data is entirely error-free. Why is North Warwickshire not present? Former Labour minister Mike O'Brien only lost that seat to the tories by 54 votes in 2010. (The tory who took it has got bored of being an MP after one term and isn't standing again). Have I got confused about something?

 

[butchersapron]

Can probably see from that why I'm prepared to go on about my location, Nuneaton, even more than usual in this election. In 2010 Labour parachuted a non-local candidate into the seat

Having said that, I'm not sure that data is entirely error-free. Why is North Warwickshire not present? Former Labour minister Mike O'Brien only lost that seat to the tories by 54 votes in 2010. (The tory who took it has got bored of being an MP after one term and isn't standing again). Have I got confused about something?

Quick version - we think he's chopped off the first 26 seats

 

[elbows]

Quick version - we think he's chopped off the first 26 seats

Yeah sorry I just realised I had missed a load of the thread.

I guess I will use the following list instead for now. It's colour coded so not hard to pick out the tory-labour ones.

http://labourlist.org/2013/01/labours-106-battleground-target-seats-for-2015/

 

[Wilf]

King Arthur standing for the "People's Party" in Salisbury. Cheeky royalist.

Momentary confusion there, thought you meant the King Arthur who is standing on a 'Free Barbican Apartments for All' ticket.

 

[brogdale]

So...yesterday I got an election leaflet through my door. It expressed anti-immigration, anti-EU and pro 'British jobs for British workers' views. Anyone want to guess from which party it was sent?

 

[J Ed]

So...yesterday I got an election leaflet through my door. It expressed anti-immigration, anti-EU and pro 'British jobs for British workers' views. Anyone want to guess from which party it was sent?

I dunno but judging by the WRP leaflet I just got I'm guessing that it wasn't them

 

[brogdale]

I dunno but judging by the WRP leaflet I just got I'm guessing that it wasn't them

No, not them! But the worrying thing is that it is not immediately obvious which one of the parties it is from.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

Pre revolutionary situation alert:
http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co....uce-surprise/story-26378714-detail/story.html

I've just had a Left Unity leaflet through the door and it's the best bit of election communication I've seen yet here in Vauxhall (lib dems and tories haven't bothered, labour's has no policy in it, pirate party's is liberal populism & the SPGB's is ok but too wordy.) LU have been out on the streets locally and have made a massive effort. Shame it's total shoe-in for Kate Hoey and her right wing foxhunting shite. She doesn't even need to bother campaigning.

 

[Flavour]

So...yesterday I got an election leaflet through my door. It expressed anti-immigration, anti-EU and pro 'British jobs for British workers' views. Anyone want to guess from which party it was sent?

Labour

 

[weepiper]

Pissed off. Some bad stuff has come out about the SNP candidate in my area to the point where I feel I now can't bring myself to vote for him. He's the only one with a realistic chance of turfing out the Labour incumbent who I really want rid of (voted for austerity among other things) but having done a bit of digging he looks like someone I don't want representing me. I'm probably going to vote SSP now as the candidate's a good bloke (Colin Fox, used to be an MSP, gave us free prescriptions) but he stands bugger all chance of getting in in a Westminster seat.

 

[brogdale]

Labour

I see where you're going with that, but no.

 

[killer b]

So...yesterday I got an election leaflet through my door. It expressed anti-immigration, anti-EU and pro 'British jobs for British workers' views. Anyone want to guess from which party it was sent?

I'm going to have a stab at the greens.

 

[brogdale]

I'm going to have a stab at the greens.

Not the Greens, no.

 

[killer b]

we're running out of possibilities... TUSC?

 

[Flavour]

Lib Dems

 

[brogdale]

we're running out of possibilities... TUSC?

Not TUSC, either.

A clue; they're fielding only 7 candidates in total.

 

[brogdale]

Lib Dems

Nope.

 

[danny la rouge]

Not TUSC, either.

A clue; they're fielding only 7 candidates in total.

Monster Raving Loony?

 

[brogdale]

Monster Raving Loony?

No.

 

[danny la rouge]

No.

DUP?

 

[killer b]

CLASS WAR?