General Election 2015 - chat, predictions, results and post election discussion

[free spirit]

still floating in leeds nw between labour (<spits>) and alliance for green socialism

ags are doing nothing at this election.

so what people here seem to be saying is that voting for some no hope party aiming at getting into 3 figures is ok, but voting for a party with a pretty radical left wing set of policies that's pushing to challenge the big 3 in this constituency suddenly risks handing the constituency to the lib dems, so we should all just vote labour instead, despite them promising to pretty much stick to tory austerity spending plans.

how are we ever going to actually challenge this neoliberal status quo with that mindset?

 

[redsquirrel]

you really think the greens are going to win Leeds NW? The greens dont have single councillor in the constituency - its not going to happen.

Yep, fantasy stuff. Green will probably keep Brighton but they aren't going to get another seat.

 

[DotCommunist]

How do we fancy Galloways chances of keeping his seat? It would be nice if our taxes were not going to that nobhead.

 

[free spirit]

As a comparison, Respect came from nowhere to win in Bradford last election, with very little prior press attention to it. OK so it was Galloway, but mostly that was a grassroots local campaign that did the legwork to make that happen.

membership in the constituency has gone up by nearly 6 times in the last year, membership in Yorkshire and Humberside has gone up 5 times. If we don't go for it now, then what conditions would we be waiting for before thinking that the time was right to go for it?

The Greens aren't perfect, but there's no better option around with the potential to take left and anti-austerity ideology into the mainstream, and tens of thousands of left wingers around the country have reached similar conclusions over the last year.

Anyway, that's my position on it, and if there's even an outside chance of getting a relatively left wing, anti-austerity, anti-neoliberal Green MP elected then that's my mission for the next 2 weeks. An outside chance is a lot better than no chance at all.

 

[DotCommunist]

also, the labour incumbent was a bit wheey allegedly

 

[Dogsauce]

we're definitely not going to win in Leeds West so that'd be a waste of a vote.

We don't have a councillor, but we were close to one in Headingley last year before the Green Surge in support.

If we win or not depends on how much the lib dem vote collapses, how much the labour campaign fails to inspire people to vote for them, and how much we inspire people to vote for us.

But it's among the most likely seats in the country to turn Green, and the candidate's a good candidate with decent politics, so worth going for it IMO.

Green Party results in 2010:

Leeds West: 1832(4.7% - close to retaining deposit)
Leeds NW: 508 votes (1.2%), sixth behind UKIP & BNP

There are also long standing green councillors in Leeds West (Farnley & Wortley ward), despite it not being 'lentil muncher' territory in any way.

The lib dems may well keep Leeds NW as mulholland has a strong local profile (a good turd-pointer) and is popular beyond the student demographic. Labour were third last time, there's a strong Tory vote in the leafy suburbs and this was a Tory seat in the 90s, the LDs will be courting this vote to keep the coalition in power.

I suspect the focus on Leeds NW is because it's an easier job canvassing students than knocking on doors in lower Wortley.

 

[chilango]

I'd be absolutely astonished if the Greens won any seats aside from holding Lucas's. Even holding that will be a massive, massive result for them.

However, there clearly, visibly, is a huge leap of support for them. One which may produce some surprisingly good results.

 

[killer b]

Good to see fs has brought his blank faced optimism over from the lib Dems. Exactly what the greens need.

 

[The39thStep]

Went for a pint with my son who announced to my complete disbelief that his mother was standing for TUSC in the council elections lol. Apparently TUSC are standing something like 500 candidates in theses elections?

 

[Kaka Tim]

As a comparison, Respect came from nowhere to win in Bradford last election, with very little prior press attention to it. OK so it was Galloway, but mostly that was a grassroots local campaign that did the legwork to make that happen.

Its no comparison at all. It was a by-election. And it was high profile candidate who was able to moblise large sections of close knit anglo-pakistani community to vote for him. As well as REPECT being able to exploit an important issue for the local community (foriegn policy wrt iraq, palastine) It was also very much about localised issues (there was widespread discontent with the local labour politicians).

None of these factor are in place for the greens in leeds NW. The best they can hope for is to come fourth and keep their deposit.

Anyway, that's my position on it, and if there's even an outside chance of getting a relatively left wing, anti-austerity, anti-neoliberal Green MP elected then that's my mission for the next 2 weeks. An outside chance is a lot better than no chance at all.

There's not even an outside chance of an outside chance - instead anyone voting green in leeds NW (or any other marginal seat) with be helping the most vicious neo-liberal and most pro-austerity party stay in power.

My job involves working with people who are getting kicked to shit by the bedroom tax, benefit sanctions and slashed services - the greens saving their deposit in leeds NW and allowing the yellow vermin back in is not going to help them (or me). The torys getting turfed out will.

 

[JTG]

There are also long standing green councillors in Leeds West (Farnley & Wortley ward), despite it not being 'lentil muncher' territory in any way.

Are they still chummy with the Tories or has that been swept under the carpet these days?

 

[butchersapron]

As a comparison, Respect came from nowhere to win in Bradford last election, with very little prior press attention to it. OK so it was Galloway, but mostly that was a grassroots local campaign that did the legwork to make that happen.

membership in the constituency has gone up by nearly 6 times in the last year, membership in Yorkshire and Humberside has gone up 5 times. If we don't go for it now, then what conditions would we be waiting for before thinking that the time was right to go for it?

The Greens aren't perfect, but there's no better option around with the potential to take left and anti-austerity ideology into the mainstream, and tens of thousands of left wingers around the country have reached similar conclusions over the last year.

Anyway, that's my position on it, and if there's even an outside chance of getting a relatively left wing, anti-austerity, anti-neoliberal Green MP elected then that's my mission for the next 2 weeks. An outside chance is a lot better than no chance at all.

As campaign manager, how did you manage to spend your entire campaign budget two weeks before the general election actually takes place?

 

[brogdale]

The Greens think they'll win Bristol West too. They won't, but they may well help return Stephen Williams to Parliament

I don't know if anyone else has posted this "middle class sect?" piece from Harris? I'd have thought that the BrisUrbs might have some take on this?

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...1/green-party-middle-class-bristol-west-video

e2a: interesting and revealing comment from Gr candidiate @6.30 referring to turnout in the ward stating that "...8 and a half thousand people do not bother to get out of bed to vote.."

 

[rioted]

There's not even an outside chance of an outside chance - instead anyone voting green in leeds NW (or any other marginal seat) with be helping the most vicious neo-liberal and most pro-austerity party stay in power.

By this logic we'll be stuck with Labour for ever and ever, no matter how bad they are, because they're not the Tories. Can you see ANY way to progress at all. Or are you HAPPY with a tweedle-dee, tweedle-dum politics?

 

[Dogsauce]

(Not sure what paper this was taken from, or what other options were put to the voters - may not have given them the option of Tory + Ld or Tory + UKIP)

 

[brogdale]

Which flavour of shit sandwich would you like?

 

[butchersapron]

Talking of shit sandwich's here's the key lab/con seats in England and wales and swing required - click 'get data' to download.

 

[brogdale]

Talking of shit sandwich's here's the key lab/con seats in England and wales and swing required - click 'get data' to download.

Yeah, I saw that. What's with the ranking numbers starting at 27? Am I being a bit 'early in the morningish'?

 

[Kaka Tim]

By this logic we'll be stuck with Labour for ever and ever, no matter how bad they are, because they're not the Tories. Can you see ANY way to progress at all. Or are you HAPPY with a tweedle-dee, tweedle-dum politics?

Well no - of course im not happy with that. For a more radical politics to break through, it will be on the back of large grass roots campaigns which then start to impact on the electoral process - i.e. a left wing version of what UKIP have done - not winning many seat but they have forced their concerns onto the agenda and had a major influence on the policies of the tory party in particular.

In England the greens are not close to achieving that sort of grass roots momentum - and their appeal will always be limited - TUSC are even farther behind (although im voting for them in leeds west). But the political system is very much in flux and the possibilities for a radical progressive politics to break through are there in a way that hasn't been the case since 1979.

The rumbling crises of democratic legitimacy and the shortcomings of the constitution likely come to a head over the next few years and we may be looking at a more federalised political structure and a change in the voting system in the very near future. Meanwhile, post 2008, the neo-liberal ideological hegemony is fracturing - this will open up more radical political possibilities - maybe on a localised/regional basis. but i fear things will have to get a lot worse before we the equivalent of Syriza or podemos in the UK.

A labour/SNP government will be the most left wing since 1979. Which says a lot about how dismal the politics of the UK has been since then.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Which flavour of shit sandwich would you like?

Depressing - yes. but thats based on the manifestos - so its relationship to reality is tenuous at best. Its clear the tories are going to absolutely gut the welfare state if they get in again. So its shit sandwich vs shit sandwich plus being force fed broken glass for dessert.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah, I saw that. What's with the ranking numbers starting at 27? Am I being a bit 'early in the morningish'?

Good question!

 

[co-op]

Talking of shit sandwich's here's the key lab/con seats in England and wales and swing required - click 'get data' to download.

I'm a bit ?? here - where's Brentford & Isleworth? - Tory majority of less than 2000 over Labour, would only need 950 of them to switch and it's gone, that's closer than most of the ones on the list you've cited...

 

[butchersapron]

I'm a bit ?? here - where's Brentford & Isleworth? - Tory majority of less than 2000 over Labour, would only need 950 of them to switch and it's gone, that's closer than most of the ones on the list you've cited...

He's missed it obv. That sort of thing can happen you know!

 

[bi0boy]

I'm a bit ?? here - where's Brentford & Isleworth? - Tory majority of less than 2000 over Labour, would only need 950 of them to switch and it's gone, that's closer than most of the ones on the list you've cited...

I guess it's based on the key seats that would lose Cons a majority.

 

[butchersapron]

I guess it's based on the key seats that would lose Cons a majority.

Now i'm a bit ?? Every tory loss to labour would help towards that.

 

[co-op]

He's missed it obv. That sort of thing can happen you know!

BUT IT'S IN PRINT ON THE INTERNET!

 

[butchersapron]

BUT IT'S IN PRINT ON THE INTERNET!

Maybe he think's it's three-way - though looking at the figures that would be a ridiculous thing to think.

 

[co-op]

I have it down as a pretty straightforward Labour win - a bit of swing + quite a few LIb-Dems defecting. I think something's a bit borked with their list.

 

[bi0boy]

Now i'm a bit ?? Every tory loss to labour would help towards that.

I guess if there is less than a 2% swing Con to Lab, then with Libs tanking and the SNP taking Lab seats then those <2% Lab/Con marginals will not matter so much.

 

[belboid]

he appears to be assuming that everything under 2% will be won by labour, which means ignoring the top 26 seats. Probably right, but he might as well have listed them