General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

[Badgers]

Cheers for the interesting info and view from the ground.

More from the ground

East of England have been waiting so long for a 'national testing strategy' that they have given up despite being told that is what is needed. They are just putting together their own.

Great in principle but this sort of government incompetence is why numbers and strategies are all over the place.

 

[scalyboy]

In my book Delta transmits more easily in general, and that applies to all settings. Outdoors still safer than indoors, but risk increased by this variant.

Behaviours including singing is an issue. But then so are things such as crowd density and pinch points and travel too and from the event and whether its really all outdoors or only certain parts outdoors.

When judging particular events and images of large groups, I am very heavily influenced byt the current prevalence of the virus. A couple of months ago the number of infected people in the crowd should have been very much smaller than it would be today.

Thanks elbows, I was hoping you'd respond to this. Not very reassuring about Delta, but good to be informed nonetheless.

 

[2hats]

If, as is looking likely, the Wembley final was a superspreader event, does that mean the Delta variant is more easily transmittable in the open air?

A football stadium, or any environment with features obstructing and interrupting the flow of the turbulent boundary layer (urban structures, tall thick vegetation, etc), is not the 'open outdoors'. Infections will quite likely be higher than on a relatively flat open plain or exposed location, in a breeze, and even more so where the density of persons is high and they are engaged in activities which raise spirometric output.

 

[Badgers]

Thanks elbows, I was hoping you'd respond to this. Not very reassuring about Delta, but good to be informed nonetheless.

It is worth knowing and telling people. At work (outside) we are testing every morning, wearing masks and social distancing. Still have had colleagues (double jabbed) catching it.

Things like clubs, sports events and such are really bad with the Delta variant.

Will see if I can find the details for this one. After the Euros St Petersburg recorded it largest number of cases since Covid began. Also a scary % of Finnish fans returning to Finland (few other nations fans travelled there) tested positive.

 

[BillRiver]

If, as is looking likely, the Wembley final was a superspreader event, does that mean the Delta variant is more easily transmittable in the open air?
Back In 2020 I thought there was some uncertainty as to whether large outdoor gatherings of people were risky - on the one hand Cheltenham and Liverpool-Atletico are believed to have increased infections, but on the other hand I recall reading there were no infection spikes after big anti-vaxxer demos, Bournemouth beach last summer, or BLM events.
Which is correct? Or is the amount of shouting and singing going to be a factor?

Info coming out of Australia says yes, Delta is more easily transmissible, including outdoors, and with very brief contact (eg going through turnstiles to take up distancing seating at outdoor events).

 

[Badgers]

A football stadium, or any environment with features obstructing and interrupting the flow of the turbulent boundary layer (urban structures, tall thick vegetation, etc), is not the 'open outdoors'. Infections will quite likely be higher than on a relatively flat open plain or exposed location, in a breeze, and even more so where the density of persons is high and they are engaged in activities which raise spirometric output.

Also the matches with people distancing still needed fans to be crowding in stadium corridors, local pubs and public transport etc.

 

[BillRiver]

scalyboy



CHO in this context stands for Chief Medical Officer (of the state of Victoria).

Eric Feigl-Ding's blue-tick twitter account bio says he is an "Epidemiologist & health economist. Senior Fellow, Federation of AmericanScientists."

Dr Noor Bari is "MBBS BSc Hons Infectious Diseases Emergency Advanced Trainee" in New South Wales.

 

[Badgers]

If the Liverpool game and the cunts at Cheltenham caused a big spike we are lucky the Delta variant was not about.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Lateral flow centres and home tests.

Most chemist's round here have run out. Seems nobody can order online. Businesses can no longer get bulk freebies for their staff.

That, plus schools closing, FreeDumb Day and sunshine makes up the drop. My point is that the case numbers are MUCH lower than they should be when we factor in the delta varient and recent large gatherings.

Anecdata: ordered some LFT online effortlessly 80 minutes before your post.

Which is correct? Or is the amount of shouting and singing going to be a factor?

singing and shouting definitely increase the likelihood of transmission.

 

[scalyboy]

Wembley was asking for negative test results as a condition of admission, but the video clips showing security overwhelmed and loads of fans charging in without tickets would render that ineffective.
And in any case, "the test needs to be taken within 48 hours of the time stadium gates open (meaning three hours before match kick-off)", so people could've been infected the day after they took the test... short of banning all large events, it's difficult to see how these superspreader events can be avoided in future.

Anecdata: ordered some LFT online effortlessly 80 minutes before your post.

singing and shouting definitely increase the likelihood of transmission.

‘Liking’ people’s posts on the subjects of Delta’s increased transmittability and on outdoor infections, but of course I’m not liking the news one bit…

Since everything’s pointing towards the UK building up to another big wave of infection, thanks to this shambolic bunch of crooks in power.

So the hope, I guess, is that the vaccination programme will prevent most people from developing life-threatening Covid, and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. But what of ‘long Covid’?

Like other vulnerable people, I was told to stop shielding ages ago, but now it makes me wonder if I should be again. Although, paradoxically, it now appears that those most at risk are the demographic most likely to be out at clubs, gigs etc, those who were offered the vaccine last … and who were considered - because of their youth and presumed health - to be least at risk.

 

[elbows]

Since everything’s pointing towards the UK building up to another big wave of infection, thanks to this shambolic bunch of crooks in power.

We arent building up to it, we are right in the large part of the wave already and have been for some time. Though exactly what I'd claim does depend a bit on which region of England we are talking about.

I cannot say exactly what stage we are at until we are far enough along the downside of the curve to clearly describe the peak as being in our past. But however large this wave turns out to be, we already reached really stupendous numbers some time ago.

 

[scalyboy]

We arent building up to it, we are right in the large part of the wave already and have been for some time. Though exactly what I'd claim does depend a bit on which region of England we are talking about.

I cannot say exactly what stage we are at until we are far enough along the downside of the curve to clearly describe the peak as being in our past. But however large this wave turns out to be, we already reached really stupendous numbers some time ago.

Yes, I see what you mean now, it's already happening I didn't realise how high the rate had already got. As you say, right in the middle.

And with the abandonment of most restrictions, isn't the UK infection rate bound to continue rising - to its highest point yet?

It's hard for me to see what could start to bring the rate down, quite the opposite in fact. Unless the previously unjabbed (youngest age groups and formerly 'hesitant' people) got vaccinated in large numbers - would that help?

But that's assuming these new infections are largely among unvaccinated people, which may not be the case. For example, my neighbour who tested positive a few days ago is in her 30s, I think, and she’s double-jabbed.

What a shitshow

 

[elbows]

I'm a pandemic bore, I go on about those things all the time. So right now I only offer something in somewhat simplified and condensed form:

Delta variant being more spreadable + relaxation of rules + high numbers of infectious people + single dose of vaccine not as protective against Delta + bad behaviour + risky mass events + Euros socialising + some people not bothering with masks + any loss of immunity due to the passing of time

vs

School holidays + disruption from people self-isolating causing reduced level of mixing between people + people being more cautious because the news of this wave got more serious + nice weather changing behaviours eg people more likely to have good ventilation and meet outdoors + good behaviours + lots of people still wearing masks + less potential victims as time goes on via vaccine-induced immunity + immunity because the person has already caught the virus + no more Euros socialising because its all over.

Not sure right now how many important things I missed off that list. But you probably get the idea. Things arent quite as straight forward as cases just keeping rising until a lockdown, there are other ways for it to hit the limits, some temporary and some a bit more longlasting (hopefully).

Check Scotland for example. Earlier Euros exit, earlier start to school holidays, earlier start to their wave. Some differences to rules and timetable of relaxation of restrictions, And it looks like they peaked weeks ago. To what extent will that be repeated in England? Will things simply keep on improving in Scotland now? Dont have all the answers, but some interesting questions.

 

[scalyboy]

I'm a pandemic bore

Not at all boring; like many other people here, I’ve appreciated your in-depth and balanced analyses. Give thanks

 

[Knotted]

Is my workplace normal?

It's frontline work that's been ongoing throughout the lockdowns. There's a few in the office including myself who have been working from home although there's constant pressure to go in. Of those staying in the office/onsite there has been ZERO mask wearing or social distancing and this is just the work place culture now. There's machismo resentment towards home working and resentment towards restrictions. One or two people go on holiday to Spain whenever they can, vaccine take up is good but only because it helps alleviate personal restrictions eg. going on holiday.

I threw my boss out of a meeting yesterday. We had a site audit back in November that restricted access to the meeting room to only two people at a time and officially nothing has changed (senior management are dithering about what rules to impose for everybody to ignore). Anyway the boss came in without a mask as the fourth person and I just told him to get out. He was absolutely furious and tore down the poster the two people only poster but he realised he couldn't come in. And then told him to get another audit done. And he had to agree with purple face rage. Fucking hilarious tbh. Later he was in calm manipulative mode and obviously I was just in a difficult mood again.

Oh yes and a couple of the directors including the CEO have shown up recently without masks or a care in the world. So head office is probably just as bad.

But generally speaking I don't know what to do. There are at least three Covid vulnerable people who work in the office. There are a few people who agree with me but most are either long resigned to it or actively Covid sceptic. So I'm fighting a lone battle. Do I get a union in?

 

[Badgers]

Knotted tell the cuntboss to phone me

 

[Brainaddict]

Is my workplace normal?

It's frontline work that's been ongoing throughout the lockdowns. There's a few in the office including myself who have been working from home although there's constant pressure to go in. Of those staying in the office/onsite there has been ZERO mask wearing or social distancing and this is just the work place culture now. There's machismo resentment towards home working and resentment towards restrictions. One or two people go on holiday to Spain whenever they can, vaccine take up is good but only because it helps alleviate personal restrictions eg. going on holiday.

I threw my boss out of a meeting yesterday. We had a site audit back in November that restricted access to the meeting room to only two people at a time and officially nothing has changed (senior management are dithering about what rules to impose for everybody to ignore). Anyway the boss came in without a mask as the fourth person and I just told him to get out. He was absolutely furious and tore down the poster the two people only poster but he realised he couldn't come in. And then told him to get another audit done. And he had to agree with purple face rage. Fucking hilarious tbh. Later he was in calm manipulative mode and obviously I was just in a difficult mood again.

Oh yes and a couple of the directors including the CEO have shown up recently without masks or a care in the world. So head office is probably just as bad.

But generally speaking I don't know what to do. There are at least three Covid vulnerable people who work in the office. There are a few people who agree with me but most are either long resigned to it or actively Covid sceptic. So I'm fighting a lone battle. Do I get a union in?

That sucks. It seems like different workplaces have just developed different 'cultures' around covid - often dependent on senior leadership. I know someone who was working with psychologists - who are all trained to use their skills to evaluate and moderate workplace behaviour as well as focusing on their own jobs - who were all cramming into tiny meeting rooms without masks throughout the second wave. Hearing that made me despair a bit. Then you hear about big corporates you wouldn't expect to care being really careful with their staff. It all just seems a bit random how workplaces have responded.

But you shouldn't have to put up with that. Getting a union involved would be a good idea if possible.

 

[Knotted]

Knotted tell the cuntboss to phone me

He's the type who won't be proactive unless he has to be and he's not an active sceptic and last time I pressed him he was quite good about it - I think he at least understands that he's vulnerable to criticism on this score. And if he does press for rules he won't get backing from his boss and he will get resistance. I'm not particularly fussed about having a barney with him but it's the whole situation. It's like back in the 80's when there wasn't any serious health and safety, it takes will to introduce measures.

Thanks Brainaddict

 

[Numbers]

That sucks. It seems like different workplaces have just developed different 'cultures' around covid - often dependent on senior leadership. I know someone who was working with psychologists - who are all trained to use their skills to evaluate and moderate workplace behaviour as well as focusing on their own jobs - who were all cramming into tiny meeting rooms without masks throughout the second wave. Hearing that made me despair a bit. Then you hear about big corporates you wouldn't expect to care being really careful with their staff. It all just seems a bit random how workplaces have responded.

But you shouldn't have to put up with that. Getting a union involved would be a good idea if possible.

The firm I work for I have to admit have been on top of this completely. Tested twice a week, temperature machines on the gates, free masks and hand sanitiser, desks across the entire campus reconfigured to W formation and made agile, if you do attend site you get a new keyboard and mouse, no requirement to attend site for anyone not front office.

 

[scalyboy]

Is my workplace normal?

It's frontline work that's been ongoing throughout the lockdowns. There's a few in the office including myself who have been working from home although there's constant pressure to go in. Of those staying in the office/onsite there has been ZERO mask wearing or social distancing and this is just the work place culture now. There's machismo resentment towards home working and resentment towards restrictions. One or two people go on holiday to Spain whenever they can, vaccine take up is good but only because it helps alleviate personal restrictions eg. going on holiday.

I threw my boss out of a meeting yesterday. We had a site audit back in November that restricted access to the meeting room to only two people at a time and officially nothing has changed (senior management are dithering about what rules to impose for everybody to ignore). Anyway the boss came in without a mask as the fourth person and I just told him to get out. He was absolutely furious and tore down the poster the two people only poster but he realised he couldn't come in. And then told him to get another audit done. And he had to agree with purple face rage. Fucking hilarious tbh. Later he was in calm manipulative mode and obviously I was just in a difficult mood again.

Oh yes and a couple of the directors including the CEO have shown up recently without masks or a care in the world. So head office is probably just as bad.

But generally speaking I don't know what to do. There are at least three Covid vulnerable people who work in the office. There are a few people who agree with me but most are either long resigned to it or actively Covid sceptic. So I'm fighting a lone battle. Do I get a union in?

Is the workplace unionised? How many are members? At any rate I'd get the union involved now - this is out of order, playing macho games with employees health, f*** that.

 

[Knotted]

Is the workplace unionised? How many are members? At any rate I'd get the union involved now - this is out of order, playing macho games with employees health, f*** that.

The workplace isn't unionised, but we work in close collaboration (including sharing the office) with the local council client who I believe are unionised. The client are just as bad as us, but I think there will be a few who aren't happy but unwilling to put their heads above the parapet (and the same with a few of us). I've joined Unison so that I'm on the same page as the council workers. It is a macho work culture unfortunately but it's also a work culture that has absorbed all sorts of health and safety measures over recent decades, so it's not as if attitudes are inflexible.

 

[scalyboy]

Definitely worth contacting them I'd say. I'm in UNISON too and was recently looking at these Covid return to work guidelines, it outlines what legislation an employer is obliged to comply with, in order to keep the workplace safe.

 

[MBV]

Decent proportion of people wearing masks in Sainsburys this evening. Bet both groups are judging each other equally

All the perspex screening is down. Definitely stock shortages are evident.

 

[glitch hiker]

So we are 15k less cases today than last week, which is good. I don't know what it indicates, if anything. This week seems to suggest a plateau. But that seems premature.

What is telling IMO is that we are also 1000 more people in hospital than a week ago (and 15 more deaths).

So hospitalisations, which is the sharp end of all this, are increasing

 

[Raheem]

BBC news strongly framing ping exemption as a government favour to workers who just want to get on with the job. It's not, is it? It was always open to anyone who wanted to ignore a ping, or not even get the ap, to do just that. The new right is for employers, all the way.

 

[LDC]

All the perspex screening is down.

I've only been in a few shops since Monday, but they all had taken them down. Annoying and shit have they done that, surely leaving them for more protection for staff for a while longer would have been better. Do they think they interfere with their profit that much?

 

[teuchter]

I've only been in a few shops since Monday, but they all had taken them down. Annoying and shit have they done that, surely leaving them for more protection for staff for a while longer would have been better. Do they think they interfere with their profit that much?

I don't get this either - there seems to be little downside in leaving them up at least for a while. Unless you are someone who wants them gone for symbolic reasons.

 

[glitch hiker]

Watched the latest from Dr John Campbell. Some very concerning news regarding the effectiveness of vaccines versus Delta. Linked bnecause it's not very long.

 

[Badgers]

Scientists have warned that the UK has created the perfect conditions by relaxing restrictions - which could see cases reaching 100,000 a day this summer - while large numbers of people don't have protection from both doses of the vaccine

Covid: Is UK now a breeding ground for new variants?

The UK may be entering a "sweet spot" for new variants, with high cases and partial immunity.

www.bbc.co.uk

#worldbeating

 

[Badgers]

Interesting if a bit depressing thread...