Galloway returns to Parliament in sensational win in Bradford West - Labour/Coalition smashed

[frogwoman]

Lol, can't say i'm a fan of galloway's simplsitic anti-imperialism or his weird views on abortion and the like but at the same time i cant help thinking thats fucking awesome if only for the hysterical reactions of labour hacks

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Some info on the wards and relating (obliquely) to turnout here. If you follow the link there's an interesting table that I haven't figured out how to post on here.

Turnout in the by-election was a healthy 50.8 per cent, a modest 14.8 percentage point drop since 2010 which compares favourably with most of the other by-elections so far this parliament.

A couple of columns on the table may need explanation. ‘Change on 2010 %’ is the straightforward percentage-point loss or gain from the 2010 general election. ‘Vote retention rate %’ is a less standard measure. It is the by-election numerical vote expressed as a percentage of that party’s vote in the 2010 election. Below 100 per cent means the party’s actual vote has fallen, which often happens in by-elections because turnout is lower.

Bradford West has existed in more or less its current form since 1974 (a predecessor seat contained less of the inner city than this one) and has been a safe-ish Labour seat of a strange sort. Labour has not won huge majorities here, but seldom has the seat seemed in any serious danger either. It comprises six wards, that fall into two groups. The City ward covers the city centre, and Manningham is an inner city area to the north of the city centre which has long been a centre for the Pakistani Muslim community in Bradford.

These wards have tended to be Labour, although Manningham has sometimes done its own thing and had a post-Iraq flirtation with the Liberal Democrats. As well as these two, Bradford West extends well to the west to include the most favoured residential areas of the core city of Bradford (the metropolitan borough extends far out to Haworth and Ilkley). One of these suburban wards, Thornton & Allerton, is the only one in the core city to have voted Conservative in every local election since 2004, and in their best local election years like 2008 the Conservatives can win four out of the six Bradford West wards. They still have councillors in Clayton & Fairweather Green, Heaton and Toller, although their chances of holding these seats in the May local elections appear vanishingly small.

Bradford West’s political scene is strongly influenced by its demographics. It has the largest concentration of Pakistanis (34.6 per cent) of any constituency, and one of the youngest populations of any seat (25.7 per cent under the age of 15 at the time of the 2001 Census). It has the 13th highest share of non-whites, being 47.4 per cent non-white in 2001 and certainly ‘majority-minority’ now. It also has the second-highest proportion of Muslims of any seat – 38.0 per cent – exceeded only by Galloway’s previous seat at Bethnal Green & Bow. It now shares with that constituency the double, perhaps dubious, distinction of having swung towards the Tories in 1997 but having elected Galloway at a subsequent poll.

There is considerable variation between West’s wards. White people comprise 94 per cent of the population of Thornton & Allerton and 84 per cent in Clayton & Fairweather Green, but only 24 per cent in Manningham and 26 per cent in Toller. The majority in Toller and Manningham were of Pakistani origin (64 per cent and 59 per cent) and City also had an Asian-origin majority. Heaton sits in the middle, with 65 per cent white, 26 per cent Pakistani and 6 per cent other Asian. All these figures date from the 2001 Census, and one can expect the ethnic minority population to have grown since then across the constituency. While ethnically mixed, Bradford West is not a particularly deprived constituency; its indices for unemployment, poor health and lack of qualifications are worse than average but not disastrously so. Bradford, though, is a city with its share of economic and social problems, symbolised by ‘the hole’ in the city centre, demolished for a never-constructed shopping centre, and even during the 2000s renaissance of urban England it was overshadowed by booming Leeds.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/03/30/bradford-west-by-election-baston/

 

[Athos]

Hard questions. Like what.

How, at a time of Tory/Lib Dem attacks on the poorest in society, did the Labour party make itself an irrelevance to working class voters.

 

[articul8]

no i didn't.

alright page 13 then

 

[where to]

it would be interesting to look at the breakdown ward by ward

one ward is 94% white, another 80-odd % white. if true that GG won these wards it would be very interesting. seems highly unlikely however.

also worth noting that these figures cited for ethnic breakdown in BW are now 10 years old, and the situation has likely changed significantly since then.

 

[frogwoman]

ALso Galloway is a fantastic speaker. Even if you end up applauding things you don't agree with

 

[butchersapron]

Like the reasons people chose either to vote against Labour or at least not to vote for Labour, at a by-election - and what would induce them to do so at a General Election?

So, why bother - the answer is vote labour

 

[articul8]

what kind of Labour party is on offer though? Or is one Labour politician only the same as another? John McDonnell the same as James Purnell? Jeremy Corbyn the same as Frank Field?

 

[Pickman's model]

alright page 13 then

i said 'like one of the bourbons they forget nothing and they learn nothing'. that's not attributing it to someone; talleyrand said it of them.

you should hurry up and take those remedial english classes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

How, at a time of Tory/Lib Dem attacks on the poorest in society, did the Labour party make itself an irrelevance to working class voters.

This is the nub of it, really. A8 liked this post, but if people had voted labour as he would have liked, such a question would not be posed. That's the bit I don't get. Labour do not oppose the cuts. They do not oppose very much, let's face it, and certainly don't propose anything worthwhile, so voting for them and in so doing telling them that you think they are doing the right thing doesn't work, does it? Surely if a8 thinks this, he should be encouraging everyone to vote against Labour.

 

[Pickman's model]

what kind of Labour party is on offer though? Or is one Labour politician only the same as another? John McDonnell the same as James Purnell? Jeremy Corbyn the same as Frank Field?

the first two sentences seem to bear no connection to each other.

 

[Delroy Booth]

If I'm not mistaken didn't they do really well in Thornton and Allerton, against everyone's expectations? Some have suggested it was Tories tactically voting against George Galloway. I'm sure that was one of the wards that kept popping up on my twitter feed last night.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

This is the nub of it, really. A8 liked this post, but if people had voted labour as he would have liked, such a question would not be posed. That's the bit I don't get. Labour do not oppose the cuts. They do not oppose very much, let's face it, and certainly don't propose anything worthwhile, so voting for them and in so doing telling them that you think they are doing the right thing doesn't work, does it? Surely if a8 thinks this, he should be encouraging everyone to vote against Labour.

i wrote this earlier on but I can't think of one single new policy Labour has come up with after spending two years in opposition. even if it is a shit new policy, not one

 

[frogwoman]

It just shows what a joke labour has become when george fucking galloway can stand in a ward that he's never stood before (IIRC) and get a "shock" victory. And I am sorry articul8 but does this not prove, completely, emphatically wrong all the arguements you've been making the last two years about Labour and the futlity of trying to get a new party etc.

And no Im not saying that george galloway is some sign of a new workers vanguard lol. but it just shows how far removed labour are from being a credible party to many of its once solid voters.

 

[belboid]

I'm not spinning - I'm just saying that two things could have contributed to a terrible result for Labour - 1) Labour voters voting Galloway or 2) Labour voters staying at home.

There's nothing extraordinary or controversial about this. It just doesn't show up directly from swing figures based on proportionally consistent turnouts.

You are spinning. 'Its bad, but not quite as bad as that figures indicates...'

The people that didnt vote labour, didnt vote labour.

You dont seem to know what 'swing' actually means. It has never meant a simple, direct, transfer from Party A to Party B. There will be 'oscillations' along the way, some Tory to Labour (which there will have been, muslims who wouldnt vote for a sikh, people who just hate galloway), some liberal to respect, etc etc. But, after everything has been counted, the overall result is.........

A 37% swing from Labour to Respect

 

[articul8]

This is the nub of it, really. A8 liked this post, but if people had voted labour as he would have liked, such a question would not be posed. That's the bit I don't get. Labour do not oppose the cuts. They do not oppose very much, let's face it, and certainly don't propose anything worthwhile, so voting for them and in so doing telling them that you think they are doing the right thing doesn't work, does it? Surely if a8 thinks this, he should be encouraging everyone to vote against Labour.

As I said I plan to vote against Labour at the GLA elections! But at the same time - whatever I might prefer - Labour is realistically the only alternative to a Con or Con/Dem majority government. In view of this it's not a matter of indifference whether Labour can be made to listen or whether it persists in its irrelevance.

 

[Delroy Booth]

Also I heard Galloway won in Toller, which is the constituency of the Labour candidate and was supposed to be Labour's safest ward. it's a bit more ethnically mixed than say Manningham is.

 

[belboid]

i wrote this earlier on but I can't think of one single new policy Labour has come up with after spending two years in opposition. even if it is a shit new policy, not one

Now is not the time for actual policies, now is the time for...uhhhh....something else

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As I said I plan to vote against Labour at the GLA elections! But at the same time - whatever I might prefer - Labour is realistically the only alternative to a Con or Con/Dem majority government. In view of this it's not a matter of indifference whether Labour can be made to listen or whether it persists in its irrelevance.

Presumably you would have voted against Labour in Bradford too? I can understand a personal vote for someone like Jeremy Corbyn, but otherwise, when else could it be right to vote Labour?

 

[frogwoman]

As I said I plan to vote against Labour at the GLA elections! But at the same time - whatever I might prefer - Labour is realistically the only alternative to a Con or Con/Dem majority government. In view of this it's not a matter of indifference whether Labour can be made to listen or whether it persists in its irrelevance.

you're plannning to vote against your own party?? why?

why the fuck are you still a member??

 

[articul8]

, after everything has been counted, the overall result is.........

A 37% swing from Labour to Respect

Swings are calculated on the basis of changes in vote share, they don't factor in differential turnout. It's a massive defeat whichever way you look at it though.

 

[butchersapron]

Articul8 is in the cameron seat

 

[Pickman's model]

As I said I plan to vote against Labour at the GLA elections! But at the same time - whatever I might prefer - Labour is realistically the only alternative to a Con or Con/Dem majority government. In view of this it's not a matter of indifference whether Labour can be made to listen or whether it persists in its irrelevance.

the biggest difference between labour and the current administration is the personnel. aside from that, in all the ways that matter, they're exactly the same.

 

[Pickman's model]

Articul8 is in the cameron seat

and he can have the cameron pasty for dinner.

 

[belboid]

Swings are calculated on the basis of changes in vote share, they don't factor in differential turnout.

Yes they do.

 

[manny-p]

I guess being the only politicians who is virulently against the Afghan war and the war on terror helped! Hate Galloway but I do admire his cuntishness in a strange way.

 

[butchersapron]

Swings are calculated on the basis of changes in vote share, they don't factor in differential turnout. It's a massive defeat whichever way you look at it though.

What are you arguing about? What lessons?

 

[frogwoman]

how the fuck are you in laboujr and yet still plan to vote against labour? surely part of the whole point of being in a party is to vote for it?

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Here's GG's victory article and valediction on the Labour party

The Bradford spring. No matter how seemingly powerful, no corrupted, out-of-touch elite can last forever.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/30/bradford-version-of-riots

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Swings are calculated on the basis of changes in vote share, they don't factor in differential turnout. It's a massive defeat whichever way you look at it though.

yeah but you won a council byelection in "leafy" sevenoaks - onwards, forwards!

http://www.stamfordmercury.co.uk/news/labour-s-sevenoaks-consolation-1-3683281