Finland & Sweden, and NATO membership.

[cupid_stunt]

It does just look they have all their ducks in a row now, Finland certainly seems ready, there's still some doubt still in Sweden, but I would be surprised if they didn't move together.

NATO membership was never seriously considered in Stockholm and Helsinki until Russian forces attacked Ukraine more than 10 weeks ago. Virtually overnight, the conversation in both capitals shifted from “Why should we join?” to “How long does it take?”

Along with hard-nosed Ukrainian resistance and wide-ranging Western sanctions, it’s one of the most significant ways in which the invasion appears to have backfired on Putin.

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, the Western leader who appeared to have the best rapport with Putin before the Ukraine war, is expected to announce his stance on NATO membership on Thursday. The governing Social Democratic parties in both countries are set to present their positions this weekend.

If their answer is “yes,” there would be robust majorities in both parliaments for NATO membership, paving the way for formal application procedures to begin right away.

The Finnish Social Democrats led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin are likely to join other parties in Finland in endorsing a NATO application. The situation in Sweden isn’t as clear.

The Swedish Social Democrats have always been staunchly committed to nonalignment. But Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, the party’s leader, has said there’s a clear “before and after Feb. 24.”

Andersson and other top Social Democrats are believed to be leaning toward NATO membership, but several subgroupings of the party have come out against, including the women’s faction, led by Climate and Environment Minister Annika Strandhall.

“We believe that our interests are best served by being militarily nonaligned,” Strandhall told Swedish broadcaster TV4. “Traditionally, Sweden has been a strong voice for peace and disarmament.”

Crucial NATO decisions expected in Finland, Sweden this week

STOCKHOLM (AP) — Key decision-makers in non-aligned Finland and Sweden are set to announce their positions on NATO membership this week in what could be a serious blow to Russia as its military struggles to make decisive gains in Ukraine.

apnews.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is the Guardian's Diplomatic Editor.



With polls like that, I can't see them not joining.

 

[kebabking]

I don't know, I'm not sure about Sweden - there seems to be both far less enthusiasm among the proponents, and more vocal opposition than in Finland.

A Swedish government minister - from the PM's party - is saying she's opposed. That may be a bit of fluff, it may be a resigning matter, she may be outlier, she may not.

Finland looks nailed on, and I think that if Sweden wobbles, or decides to consolidate, or decides not to, Finland will join anyway.

 

[LDC]

20% opposed, with what I assume is 19% or thereabouts undecided or similar is a significant %.

 

[MrCurry]

I don't know, I'm not sure about Sweden - there seems to be both far less enthusiasm among the proponents, and more vocal opposition than in Finland.

A Swedish government minister - from the PM's party - is saying she's opposed. That may be a bit of fluff, it may be a resigning matter, she may be outlier, she may not.

Finland looks nailed on, and I think that if Sweden wobbles, or decides to consolidate, or decides not to, Finland will join anyway.

The Swedish govt long ago said they will act in tandem with the Finns and so if the Finns are ready to announce they’re joining, it means the Swedes will be doing so too. They may, for their own reasons, be less vocal and open about it ahead of it becoming official, but I believe it’s nailed on now and has been for a while.

 

[kebabking]

20% opposed, with what I assume is 19% or thereabouts undecided or similar is a significant %.

I know it's been written about before, but I think the political culture difference between Finland and Sweden needs to be kept in mind - Finland was neutral against its will, with a Soviet invasion as the 'or else', while Sweden was neutral as a 200 year deliberate policy.

One of those is easier to change than the other.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Swedish govt long ago said they will act in tandem with the Finns and so if the Finns are ready to announce they’re joining, it means the Swedes will be doing so too. They may, for their own reasons, be less vocal and open about it ahead of it becoming official, but I believe it’s nailed on now and has been for a while.

IIRC you are in Sweden?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sweden's defence minister seems keen.

The defence capability of the Nordic countries would be strengthened if Sweden and Finland chose to join NATO and if both countries had common defence planning within the NATO framework, Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told Radio Ekot Tuesday.

“Of course, it gives a completely different strategic depth, it also gives a very strong security policy signal, and it also gives a strong platform for the Nordic defence cooperation within the framework of NATO,” Hultqvist told Radio Ekot in an interview.

“We make full use of each other’s strengths and advantages, we complement each other, and we also carry out operational planning, and then the effect is that we become stronger together. This is something that can happen if we choose to join NATO,” said Hultqvist.

Hultqvist was previously against Sweden applying for NATO membership. He did not want to say where he stands on the issue now but stressed that Russia’s war of aggression had changed a great deal.

“There is a before and an after 24 February,” he said, referring to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February.

“Obviously I am part of this process, and I have as minister of defence to take responsibility for a holistic situation, and I am part of this security policy analysis process, and I am part of the party process, and I will report my conclusions when we are ready in the party,” he added.

Swedish defence minister says NATO membership would strengthen Nordic defence

www.euractiv.com

 

[MrCurry]

IIRC you are in Sweden?

Yes, but I don’t claim to be well informed on this as I still get most of my news from English language sources. I do pick up the odd bit here and there from the Swedish news.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is what I was looking for, there was a vote in Sweden's parliament back in Dec. 2020, where a motion to join NATO at some point was passed by 204 votes to 145.

The current minority government of Social Democrats and Greens — plus their allies the Left Party — remain staunchly against, citing the value of neutrality in what they see as a polarizing world.

On the other side, four traditionally allied center-right parties — the Moderate Party, the Liberals, the Center Party and the Christian Democrats — are in favor, saying Sweden needs the security of the defense guarantees that NATO membership offers.

The pro-NATO side scored a big win last week when the far-right Sweden Democrats, who are angling for closer cooperation with the center-right bloc in a range of policy areas, reversed a previous anti-NATO stance and backed a motion for Sweden to adopt a so-called NATO option — allowing it to join NATO at some point in the future. Parliament voted in favor of the motion by 204 votes to 145.

Sweden edges closer to NATO membership

Parliament voted in favor of the NATO option — allowing the country to join the alliance in future.

www.politico.eu

 

[MrCurry]

Live press conference with Boris and Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson beginning shortly

 

[kebabking]

The UK and Sweden have signed a Mutual Defence Treaty. Johnson will be in Helsinki this afternoon to do the same with Finland.

 

[bluescreen]

MrCurry Do you know anything about this? Posters appearing in Moscow accusing Swedes of being Nazi sympathisers. No wonder they are worried

”Kan vara början på nytt narrativ om Sverige” | SvD

På busshållplatser i Moskva kan man nu se ett nytt budskap: Att Sverige försvarar nazister. Svenska UD säger att man är medveten om affischeringen.

www.svd.se

 

[tim]

MrCurry Do you know anything about this? Posters appearing in Moscow accusing Swedes of being Nazi sympathisers. No wonder they are worried

”Kan vara början på nytt narrativ om Sverige” | SvD

På busshållplatser i Moskva kan man nu se ett nytt budskap: Att Sverige försvarar nazister. Svenska UD säger att man är medveten om affischeringen.

www.svd.se

Ingvar Kamprad who founded and ran IKEA until his death in 2018 was a Nazi. A proper one. He joined the Swedish National Socialist Party in 1943, the same year he founded his company.

 

[bluescreen]

Ingvar Kamprad who founded and ran IKEA until his death in 2018 was a Nazi. A proper one. He joined the Swedish National Socialist Party in 1943, the same year he founded his company.

I'd forgotten that. But might as well put up posters saying Brits are Nazis because Edward VIII was.
What about Astrid Lindgren - was she a Nazi too?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Ingvar Kamprad who founded and ran IKEA until his death in 2018 was a Nazi. A proper one. He joined the Swedish National Socialist Party in 1943, the same year he founded his company.

Sorry, but what is your point here?

 

[frogwoman]

Let's not make 'denazification of Sweden' a thing lol

 

[frogwoman]

I'd forgotten that. But might as well put up posters saying Brits are Nazis because Edward VIII was.
What about Astrid Lindgren - was she a Nazi too?

Could also put up posters about Alexander Barkashov and Ivan Ilyn. Oh wait no no no not them

 

[MrCurry]

MrCurry Do you know anything about this? Posters appearing in Moscow accusing Swedes of being Nazi sympathisers. No wonder they are worried

”Kan vara början på nytt narrativ om Sverige” | SvD

På busshållplatser i Moskva kan man nu se ett nytt budskap: Att Sverige försvarar nazister. Svenska UD säger att man är medveten om affischeringen.

www.svd.se

It’s the first time I’ve heard of it, but my wife tells me SvD is a reliable newspaper, so I don’t doubt it’s based on something. I suppose Putin needs to begin to prepare his population with reasons why the Swedes are now to be regarded as enemies. Hope it’s not more than that.

 

[Supine]

The UK and Sweden have signed a Mutual Defence Treaty. Johnson will be in Helsinki this afternoon to do the same with Finland.

So if they get attacked we are compelled to join in? Lets hope to fuck they join NATO successfully as well then. The clown seems to be endangering us for a little game of little england politics.

 

[frogwoman]

if Sweden or Finland got attacked, even if neither had NATO membership I find it hard to believe that any UK government including one led by Corbyn etc wouldn't step in tbh, with or without an agreement. His meeting them and signing defence agreements is just diplomacy / trying to patch up any lingering bad relations after Brexit imo rather than having a substantial effect on anything

 

[frogwoman]

So if they get attacked we are compelled to join in? Lets hope to fuck they join NATO successfully as well then. The clown seems to be endangering us for a little game of little england politics.

If Sweden of all places got hit by Russian air strikes good luck to any British or European politician arguing that we shouldn't step in, suspect if things ever got to that point we'd have been hit (and would have hit back) long before they were anyway

 

[kebabking]

The interesting thing, for me, is that this stuff shows the disconnect between Russian PR and European and US electorates - this is the method of political warfare that Russian power structures, and before that Soviet power structures, believed would divide European and US societies, drive holes in NATO and allow them to complete their military operations without too much interference from the US and other NATO powers, even to the point where they could use tactical nukes in Europe without getting a nuclear
response from the US.

And instead of that, it's getting nothing but derisive laughter.

It, imv, goes far beyond just ineptitude - this stuff displays a staggeringly lack of grasp, both political and technical, of maskirovka. The KGB of old were much better at this stuff - they weren't the masters of it, they were no better or worse than any other intelligence/political action service, but this - as well as the failure to understand the politics in Ukraine, points to catastrophic disintegration of intelligence and the political will to use.

Staggering stuff.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So if they get attacked we are compelled to join in? Lets hope to fuck they join NATO successfully as well then. The clown seems to be endangering us for a little game of little england politics.

There's a number of countries offering security guarantees to both Finland & Sweden, including the US, they a need those guarantees to cover them between putting in their applications for NATO membership and getting accepted.

 

[agricola]

if Sweden or Finland got attacked, even if neither had NATO membership I find it hard to believe that any UK government including one led by Corbyn etc wouldn't step in tbh, with or without an agreement. His meeting them and signing defence agreements is just diplomacy / trying to patch up any lingering bad relations after Brexit imo rather than having a substantial effect on anything

Indeed, plus there is the EU commitment to defend each other.

Personally although I think this was always a likely outcome of this crisis, before they apply to join there should still be diplomatic attempts including via the UNSC (and by speaking to Russia directly at the leadership level) to highlight that these two countries are being in essence forced to abandon long-held positions of neutrality solely because of this invasion. Pointing out the hypocrisy of the US or UK over invading another country on a nonsense pretext is very easy for the Russians and others to do, and its not without merit, but it is much more difficult to do with Sweden and Finland because it reminds a lot of the non-aligned world that this could be them one day.

 

[frogwoman]

Indeed, plus there is the EU commitment to defend each other.

Personally although I think this was always a likely outcome of this crisis, before they apply to join there should still be diplomatic attempts including via the UNSC (and by speaking to Russia directly at the leadership level) to highlight that these two countries are being in essence forced to abandon long-held positions of neutrality solely because of this invasion. Pointing out the hypocrisy of the US or UK over invading another country on a nonsense pretext is very easy for the Russians and others to do, and its not without merit, but it is much more difficult to do with Sweden and Finland because it reminds a lot of the non-aligned world that this could be them one day.

I think North Korea of all governments had a point when one of their diplomats said the day after the invasion, something like 'Now do you get why we're so keen on nuclear weapons?'

 

[maomao]

Indeed, plus there is the EU commitment to defend each other.

Personally although I think this was always a likely outcome of this crisis, before they apply to join there should still be diplomatic attempts including via the UNSC (and by speaking to Russia directly at the leadership level) to highlight that these two countries are being in essence forced to abandon long-held positions of neutrality solely because of this invasion. Pointing out the hypocrisy of the US or UK over invading another country on a nonsense pretext is very easy for the Russians and others to do, and its not without merit, but it is much more difficult to do with Sweden and Finland because it reminds a lot of the non-aligned world that this could be them one day.

It may be trite (though fair) to draw equivalencies to the west's wars of aggression but one thing we really can blame them for is making the UN so fucking toothless. Would be nice to see that change as a result of this but I somehow doubt it.

 

[gosub]

MrCurry Do you know anything about this? Posters appearing in Moscow accusing Swedes of being Nazi sympathisers. No wonder they are worried

”Kan vara början på nytt narrativ om Sverige” | SvD

På busshållplatser i Moskva kan man nu se ett nytt budskap: Att Sverige försvarar nazister. Svenska UD säger att man är medveten om affischeringen.

www.svd.se

Those muppets cant even stay on the right side of Godwin's law, let alone international law

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Finland's foreign minister has done a short interview on Sky News, with a very heavy hint that they will be joining NATO, from about 45 seconds in, keep watching to see the underground swimming pool that can be drained in a day and converted into a bomb shelter for 4,000 people!

Helsinki has nuclear bunker capability for every single person in the city. They are very well built and include shit that's needed for a long stay, down to kids' playgrounds.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It may be trite (though fair) to draw equivalencies to the west's wars of aggression but one thing we really can blame them for is making the UN so fucking toothless. Would be nice to see that change as a result of this but I somehow doubt it.

Yeah, don't hold yer breath on that one...