Finland & Sweden, and NATO membership.

[cupid_stunt]

So, it seems confirmed both countries will submit their NATO applications at the same time.

The Finnish Iltalehti reports on Monday that the Swedish government has expressed a wish to Finland that a NATO application from both countries be submitted at the same time. And the newspaper also reports that the two countries have now agreed to announce any applications during week 20, ie sometime from 16 to 22 May.

According to Expressen's experience, the information is correct, and there must now be an agreement between Sweden and Finland that any applications must be submitted that week, which also coincides with the Finnish state visit to Sweden. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö will arrive in Stockholm on 17-18 May.

Link to English translation -

Uppgifter: Sverige får skydd av USA under Natoansökan

Sverige och Finland är överens om att skicka in Nato-ansökningar samtidigt. Det uppger den finska tidningen Iltalehti, som också skriver att detta ska ske redan i mitten av maj. Svenska regeringskällor till Expressen bekräftar uppgifterna, och uppger att det finns en överenskommelse mellan...

www-expressen-se.translate.goog

 

[MrCurry]

So, it seems confirmed both countries will submit their NATO applications at the same time.



Link to English translation -

Uppgifter: Sverige får skydd av USA under Natoansökan

Sverige och Finland är överens om att skicka in Nato-ansökningar samtidigt. Det uppger den finska tidningen Iltalehti, som också skriver att detta ska ske redan i mitten av maj. Svenska regeringskällor till Expressen bekräftar uppgifterna, och uppger att det finns en överenskommelse mellan...

www-expressen-se.translate.goog

Not exactly confirmed, as that’s a Swedish tabloid quoting a report in a Finnish magazine. It may well turn out to be correct and based on good sources, or it may be some journos taking a punt and assuming it will happen during the Finnish president‘s visit.

Guess we don’t have to wait so long to find out if it’s right, anyway.

 

[kebabking]

There's definitely a long-held sense in both Finland and Sweden that they would prefer to join together - or stay out together.

Finland is definitely further along, both politically and psychologically - I think they've already made their decision in their hearts, it's now about what their version of NATO membership will look like, whether Sweden will join, whether Sweden needs more time etc, but but I would now be genuinely surprised if Finland isn't a member by September.

I think it's now got to the point where Finland would delay if they thought Sweden was close behind, but not there yet, and just needed a couple of months, but I think that if Sweden decides not to, Finland will go ahead without them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Posted on the main thread -

 

[existentialist]

Posted on the main thread -

"Reportedly" is putting a certain amount of work in there, TBF. Seems that Sweden is saying this, while Finland is saying nothing. It's probably still in the speculative realm.

 

[cupid_stunt]

"Reportedly" is putting a certain amount of work in there, TBF. Seems that Sweden is saying this, while Finland is saying nothing. It's probably still in the speculative realm.

Plenty of early reports said both countries would seek security guarantees the cover the period between their applications going in and actual membership, which seems perfectly logical, as in them both wanting to join in view of what's going on and the increased level of public support to join NATO, again in both countries.

 

[kebabking]

"Reportedly" is putting a certain amount of work in there, TBF. Seems that Sweden is saying this, while Finland is saying nothing. It's probably still in the speculative realm.

I'd be tempted to say they are already on place, if not on paper.

There are already US/UK/other forces exercising in Finland - which unlike Sweden does have a border with the Russians - air, land and sea forces, this makes it difficult for the Russians to fight the Finn's without also conflicting with NATO member states forces.

This looks like a slightly paler copy of the Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltics and Poland - without the explicit written guarantees, but with enough practical issues to make it look like too risky a proposition.

It's not 'if you invade we'll fight you' but it is 'if you kill one American, even by accident, we'll fight you - you'd be much better off staying at home'...

 

[bluescreen]

Thread about how well trained Finnish troops are compared to Ukrainian. The story about the vulnerability of the tented camp sounds all too credible.

Thread by @jmkorhonen on Thread Reader App

@jmkorhonen: How would the Finnish Defence Forces fare against an invasion from the east? I've been following some Finnish volunteers in Ukraine, and noticed a pattern: they tend to think that Finland is better prep...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Thread about how well trained Finnish troops are compared to Ukrainian. The story about the vulnerability of the tented camp sounds all too credible.

Thread by @jmkorhonen on Thread Reader App

@jmkorhonen: How would the Finnish Defence Forces fare against an invasion from the east? I've been following some Finnish volunteers in Ukraine, and noticed a pattern: they tend to think that Finland is better prep...…

threadreaderapp.com

the sort of mistake you don't make twice

 

[kebabking]

the sort of mistake you don't make twice

Unless,of course, you're Russian....

 

[kebabking]

Thread about how well trained Finnish troops are compared to Ukrainian. The story about the vulnerability of the tented camp sounds all too credible.

Thread by @jmkorhonen on Thread Reader App

@jmkorhonen: How would the Finnish Defence Forces fare against an invasion from the east? I've been following some Finnish volunteers in Ukraine, and noticed a pattern: they tend to think that Finland is better prep...…

threadreaderapp.com

It sounds very credible to me. I would say that the Finn's are the most war ready nation in Europe - the resilience they build into everything, their civilian infrastructure, their systems, being able to take parts or tools from one things and slotting into another is like no one else. Their military are certainly very well trained and equipped, and they are fortunate that they didn't fall into the Afghanistisation that we fell into - disregarding the air threat, becoming casualty centric, and simply getting used to being the big dog in an insurgency war.

We have been trying to recover from that - we do simple things like coordinating ground and air training so that soldiers and officers spend as much time looking at the sky as they do the ground, switching off communication systems during exercises, field HQ's never stopping for more than 5 minutes, much more exercising of our logistics tail rather than just assuming it will work, more 'no notice' exercises of units that tended not to get them - but it takes time to get out of bad habits. I've been a soldier for 30 years (old, very old), I've more than a dozen tours on my chest, but I've never operated under a hostile sky or anywhere where regimental level counter-battery fire was a distinct possibility. It's not just me, it's everyone I've trained, it's everyone 'they've* trained...

We could do with a bigger exercise budget, that I can tell you.

 

[Pickman's model]

Unless,of course, you're Russian....

different russians each time i suspect

 

[MrCurry]

Apparently Boris is coming here tomorrow to sign a security guarantee document ahead of the anticipated joint announcement by the Swedes and the Finns that they will indeed be joining NATO. People here are nervous of what the Russian response to an announcement will look like, so this is winning the U.K. lots of brownie points in the post Brexit difficult times.

source - in Swedish, but Google translate no doubt works well:

Boris Johnson till Sverige för att skriva under försvarsavtal

Storbritanniens premiärminister Boris Johnson besöker Sverige på onsdagen, enligt finländska medier. Enligt uppgifter till Aftonbladet är det för att signera et

www.aftonbladet.se

I’m devastated he‘s only visiting Stockholm and not swinging by here as I’d love heckle him.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Apparently Boris is coming here tomorrow ...

Any chance of keeping him?

 

[MrCurry]

Any chance of keeping him?

You think I want that?

 

[cupid_stunt]

You think I want that?

 

[WouldBe]

People here are nervous of what the Russian response to an announcement will look like, so this is winning the U.K. lots of brownie points in the post Brexit difficult times.

Just sign the agreement and don't tell anyone.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Europe is tooling up.

I share your , but I think we need to.

I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that Putin is mentally unbalanced.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, will visit Finland and Sweden on Wednesday, as the two Nordic countries consider whether to apply for Nato membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Downing Street said Johnson would have discussions on “broader security issues” during his visit to Finland followed by Sweden. A spokesperson for the PM said: "It is about not just Ukraine but the security of Europe more broadly. This is about meeting other democratic countries and discussing issues such as security which are of importance here and overseas.

We support countries’ democratic capability to decide on things like Nato membership. We understand the positions of Sweden and Finland and that is why the Prime Minister is going to discuss these broader security issues."

LINK

 

[Pickman's model]

i can't help thinking that finland and sweden would be more up for joining nato if it meant an end to visits from the abominable johnson

 

[kebabking]

I think I read that both will make/announce their decisions on the 12th (Thursday).

It looks like a solid yes from both, possibly a bit more solid from Finland, the only variable left is whether some helpful country like Hungary will veto the accession - or at least threaten to.

The EU are having conversations with Orban at the moment over oil sanctions which Orban is blowing - they don't appear to be going well.

(I think these multilateral orgs like NATO and the EU need to start thinking about whether they should have a pathway to force a state out - though of course that might change the dynamic of the org itself...).

 

[ouirdeaux]

I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that Putin is mentally unbalanced.

But he seems such a nice boy.

 

[Pickman's model]

I share your , but I think we need to.

I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that Putin is mentally unbalanced.

All heads of government are mentally unbalanced

 

[Sasaferrato]

All heads of government are mentally unbalanced

Most don't launch murderous attacks on their neighbours though.

 

[Pickman's model]

Most don't launch murderous attacks on their neighbours though.

You say that like it has some bearing on the matter

 

[Sasaferrato]

You say that like it has some bearing on the matter

Not quite sure what your point is.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not quite sure what your point is.

No, I see that

 

[cupid_stunt]

Finland's foreign minister has done a short interview on Sky News, with a very heavy hint that they will be joining NATO, from about 45 seconds in, keep watching to see the underground swimming pool that can be drained in a day and converted into a bomb shelter for 4,000 people!



And, there was this report from yesterday...

 

[kebabking]

The Finnish parliaments' Defence Committee yesterday recommended that Finland join NATO.

Of course, parliamentary defence committees recommend stuff all the time, but there's a feeling of rolling down a road/choreography to this.

 

[LDC]

What Russia does when that happens is going to give us a good idea if the threats are primarily bluster, or if there's more to it coming surely?