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Extreme Weather Watch

Perhaps more interesting, for us, is where it could end up in about 10 days' time… (for the start of the bank holiday weekend).
GEFS Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks. ECMWF Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks.
ECENS Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks.
Note: prior to arrival it could promote another warming episode.
 
Though that's just one estimate. The ensembles provide a better idea of spread: still all to play for, N, S, direct hit or could just stall out to the W of us.​

Separately, Canadian wildfire smoke has arrived (hence the slightly hazy appearance at altitude and some temperatures in E/SE parts a degree or two down on forecasts of 24-48+ hours ago):
Those are some excellent graphics. Well done . Thank you
 
When will we feel this? Baton down the hatches?
Could rock up in our neck of the woods around Thursday/Friday. Outcome could be anywhere from a warming episode, through a NW/SE unsettled/sunny split, to 'meh', to an unseasonal battering with high winds - all depends on the final track (which still has significant spread right now). However, operational models do currently seem to be leaning towards unseasonal surprise.
ERNESTO | 2024-08-18 00Z | ECMWF Ensemble Tracks. GEFS Ensemble, init: 2024081806, AL05 Ernesto tracks. Wind gusts, km/h, GFS, 12z22Aug2024 (init 12z18Aug2024).
 
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