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Extreme Weather Watch

pushing 100F today and through the weekend here (NYC).


It is nasty in Brooklyn today. It has been the last few days.

A spectacular own goal on Wednesday from the city when it was equally nasty. Juneteenth is a Federal Holiday, meaning many federal and municipal buildings were closed on that day. That also meant that 41% of buildings that are usually used as cooling centers during severe heatwaves were also closed. Who needs cooling centers the most during severe heatwaves? Poor people. And poor people in NYC are disproportionately people of colour.
 
The intensification of Beryl is unprecedented for so early in the season, but perhaps of little surprise once one considers the relevant sea surface temperatures (MDR energy content). Beryl has taken 42 hours to reach cat 3 (from merely being a tropical depression), and 48 hours to reach cat 4.
Maximum Winds 42 Hours After Depression (Atlantic 1851-2023), knots. Ocean Heat Content in Main Development Region (10-20N 85-20W), kJ/cm^2.
 
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Now a cat 5 hurricane with winds nudging 170 knots, despite encountering moderate wind sheer. Plenty of heat (abnormally so) in the Caribbean Sea to fuel her further. Hurricane warning issued for Jamaica, with arrival expected later on Wednesday.
Ocean Heat Content Anomaly- 20240701Atlantic Hurricane #Beryl Advisory 14: Beryl Becomes a Potentially Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane In the Eastern Caribbean. Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Winds and Storm Surge To Jamaica Later This Week (@NHC). Beryl - Maximum Wind Speed: 169.9 knots.
Ocean Heat Content in Caribbean (10-20N 85-60W), kJ/cm^2. Ocean Heat Content Anomaly, 01Jul2024, kJ/cm^2.
NHC cone graphic.
 
Spoken to family in St Lucia - East coast hit by high winds and storm surge with some significant damage to the coastal villages , West coast described as a 'a bit of a blow' and rough seas but the mountains in the centre of the island deflected the worst of the storm.

Union Island, Carriacou and Petit St Vincent look devastated 💔

Looks like the worst of it will pass over southern Jamaica and the poor old flat as a pancake Caymans😟
 
Powerful Hurricane Beryl has hit Jamaica with heavy winds and rain, damaging buildings and felling trees on the Caribbean island.

The category four storm brought winds of up to 130mph (215km/h) on Jamaica's southern coast.

Social media photos show floodwater pouring down streets, with roofs ripped off by the wind.

The storm has killed at least seven people so far as it sweeps across the Caribbean. It has now been downgraded to a category three storm, and is due to make landfall in Mexico later on Friday.

"It's terrible. Everything's gone. I'm in my house and scared," Amoy Wellington, resident of a rural farming community in the southern St Elizabeth parish, was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

"It's a disaster."

Prime Minister Andrew Holness earlier urged people to "take this hurricane seriously".

"If you live in a low-lying area, an area historically prone to flooding and landslide, or if you live on the banks of a river or a gully, I implore you to evacuate to a shelter or to safer ground," he said.

Three people died in Grenada, where it first made landfall on Monday, one in St Vincent and the Grenadines, and another three in northern Venezuela, which was hit by strong winds and flooding.

About 90% of homes were destroyed or severely damaged on Union Island, which is part of St Vincent and the Grenadines.

'Almost whole island homeless' in Hurricane Beryl's wake

Parts of Jamaica earlier experienced disruption to power and electricity supplies, with the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) saying it was forced to pause restoration of power lines in some locations for the safety of their workers.

In a news briefing, the NHC's director, Dr Michael Brennan, said Jamaica would experience "devastating hurricane force winds".

Rainfall in some parts of the country could hit 12in (30cm), potentially leading to flooding and mudslides, the director explained, while life-threatening storm surges as high as 9ft (2.7m) above tide level are also expected.

"Everybody in Jamaica needs to be in their safe place and be prepared to stay there for at least the next 12 hours," Dr Brennan warned.
 
That's junk. A composite of all sorts of random extreme event footage (I can see sequences from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake driven tsunami in there, a tornado from a few months back in Nebraska, for two examples).
 
Beryl, the outer bands of which are just reaching Texan shores…
…has (thus far) an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 33.3. Not only has this easily surpassed the Atlantic ACE record at this point in the season, but this is more ACE than any single storm produced in 2020. Additionally, it is more ACE than the entire hurricane seasons of: 1914, 1925, 1907, 1983, 1855, 1946, 1977, 1864, 1905, 1920, 1904, 1854, 1982, and 1994.
HURDAT2 Cumulative ACE Plot (Climatology: 1951-2023), 7 July 2024.
 
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2hats , thank you for your science and evidence based posts on Beryl. A weather app I use has animated her path to date. She's a monster and continues many days after forming to be a real threat.


Screenshot_20240707-182505.png
 
Beryl is currently a Tropical Storm. She's been uninterrupted for quite a while, first tracked on the 26th June!Screenshot_20240708-214929.png

Screenshot_20240708-214858.png
 
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