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Extreme Weather Watch

Helene is posing a SERIOUS threat:

www.usatoday.com

Helene now projected as Category 4 hurricane, could get stronger: Updates

The highest landfall probability is somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle late Thursday evening, forecasters said.
www.usatoday.com www.usatoday.com

The forecast for Helene to transition from a potential tropical cyclone to a Category 3 hurricane appears to be the fastest progression ever predicted for a depression by the National Hurricane Center.

perhaps the US Midwest will get some badly needed rain...
 
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The predicted rainfall totals from Helene look frightening and very extensive:


RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
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And Helene is powerful enough to produce peak storm surge heights of up to 20 feet and even a small surge of up to 3 feet on the Eastern side of Florida on the Georgia & S. Carolina coasts!

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and some epic wave heights predicted over very large swathes of the gulf...and beyond, to the East...

 
Just heard warnings for residents with EVs to move them out of the storm surge's harm as they pose a fire risk when submerged with salt water. Apparently some homes that withstood the winds/surge of the 2022 Hurricane Ian actually burnt down because of EV fires. :eek:
 
brogdale said:
Just heard warnings for residents with EVs to move them out of the storm surge's harm as they pose a fire risk when submerged with salt water. Apparently some homes that withstood the winds/surge of the 2022 Hurricane Ian actually burnt down because of EV fires. :eek:
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If the houses survived the storm surge how did the EV's get submerged. :hmm:
 
35-45 mph wind. Cloudy.
No rain since last night on Florida east coast
Storm is due west of Tampa now, 125mph Cat3 winds... Will be Cat 4 in a few hours before Tallahassee goes into the blender.
 
It is certainly quite late in the season for cat 5s in the Gulf Of Mexico. There have only been two before in October (in recorded history).
Paths of Gulf Of Mexico category 5 hurricanes.​
 
2hats said:
It is certainly quite late in the season for cat 5s in the Gulf Of Mexico. There have only been two before in October (in recorded history).
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I guess the frequency and duration of Category 5 hurricanes is increasing and that's what's down to climate change rather than the fact such storms occur at all.
 
There does seem to be a gradual upward trend. The systems are complex, but almost certainly sea surface temperatures (and associated dynamics), modulated by climate warming, are a significant driver.
Atlantic tropical cyclone storm frequency (HURDAT, NOAA GFDL). 20-year average of the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic region (NYT/NOAA).​
 
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