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Extreme Weather Watch

"The Arctic is thought to have warmed by 2.7C since the pre-industrial era, and this warming is believed to have accelerated since the start of the 21st century."

www.ucl.ac.uk

Faster Arctic warming hastens 2C rise by eight years

Faster warming in the Arctic will be responsible for a global 2C temperature rise being reached eight years earlier than if the region was warming at the average global rate, according to a new modelling study led by UCL researchers.
www.ucl.ac.uk www.ucl.ac.uk
 
Minus 16 in Beijing today.... Not normal

www.channelnewsasia.com

China's cold snap reaches Shanghai with chilliest year-end in 40 years

SHANGHAI: China's financial hub Shanghai was set to record its chilliest period in December in four decades, spurring authorities to issue warnings for low temperatures and wind, while northern cities battled icy conditions forecast to ease only next week. The city's lowest temperatures on...
www.channelnewsasia.com www.channelnewsasia.com
 
From the Guardian

Hurricanes are becoming so strong due to the climate crisis that the classification of them should be expanded to include a “category 6” storm, furthering the scale from the standard 1 to 5, according to a new study.

Over the past decade, five storms would have been classed at this new category 6 strength, researchers said, which would include all hurricanes with sustained winds of 192mph or more. Such mega-hurricanes are becoming more likely due to global heating, studies have found, due to the warming of the oceans and atmosphere.


Michael Wehner, a scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in the US, said that “192mph is probably faster than most Ferraris, it’s hard to even imagine”. He has proposed the new category 6 alongside another researcher, James Kossin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Being caught in that sort of hurricane would be bad. Very bad.”

The new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, proposes an extension to the widely used Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which was developed in the early 1970s by Herbert Saffir, a civil engineer, and Robert Simpson, a meteorologist who was the director of the US National Hurricane Center.

The scale classifies any hurricane with a sustained maximum wind speed of 74mph or more to be a category 1 event, with the scale rising the faster the winds. Category 3 and above is considered to include major hurricanes that risk severe damage to property and life, with the strongest, category 5, including all storms that are 157mph or more.


Category 5 storms have caused spectacular damage in recent years – such as Hurricane Katrina’s ravaging of New Orleans in 2005 and Hurricane Maria’s devastating impact upon Puerto Rico in 2017 – but the new study argues there is now a class of even more extreme storms that demands its own category.

They include Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 6,000 people in the Philippines in 2013, and Hurricane Patricia, which reached a top speed of 215mph when it formed near Mexico in 2015.

“There haven’t been any in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico yet but they have conditions conducive to a category 6, it’s just luck that there hasn’t been one yet,” said Wehner. “I hope it won’t happen, but it’s just a roll of the dice. We know that these storms have already gotten more intense, and will continue to do so.”

While the total number of hurricanes is not rising due to the climate crisis, researchers have found that the intensity of major storms has notably increased during the four-decade satellite record of hurricanes. A super-heated ocean is providing extra energy to rapidly intensify hurricanes, aided by a warmer, moisture-laden atmosphere.
Click to expand...
 
As above “Roi-Namur Island was struck by several substantial waves on Saturday night. It was NOT a tsunami. The powerful waves, driven by cyclonic surges in the open sea, affected the island located in the northern part of the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.”
 
Across quite a few locations in Europe, February is indeed the new March [preliminarily].
Truly outlandish. Some places in Europe didn't just record their warmest February on record.... They went on to beat their warmest MARCH temperature levels.
Click to expand...
February 2024 temperature anomaly. Quote: Effectively everywhere in the dark red shading smashed warmest February record - most by large margin. Austria has over 250 years of temperature record and nothing compares to this. Not even close.​
A thread:
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Thread by @ScottDuncanWX on Thread Reader App

@ScottDuncanWX: Truly outlandish. Some places in Europe didn't just record their warmest February on record.... They went on to beat their warmest MARCH temperature levels. [THREAD] Effectively everywhere in the dar...…
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Elpenor said:
Was it 2019 when it hit 20 degrees in parts of southern England in late February?
Click to expand...


I remember walking without a coat and jumper through Epping Forest on New Year’s Day a couple of years ago.

Winter is increasingly optional, last year was probably the coldest December we’ve had for ages
 
Meanwhile, out at sea...
Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy: The 171st February is now in the books in NOAA's ERSST database... in the North Atlantic, it was significantly warmer than any other February, warmer than any other March, and even warmer than all-but-three recent Aprils.​

Separately, the current El Niño looks like it is winding down and there are signs are that La Niña is teeing up (large, growing sub-surface cold pool, and MJO-related activity which itself might help kill the current El Niño). A warmer Atlantic with a cooler ENSO phase could potentially drive a very active northern hemisphere hurricane season later this year.
 
So the prospect of El Niño cooking us this summer has waned? But the potential to lose our roofs later in the year from La Nina has increased?

<hell in a hand cart>
 
Mr.Bishie said:
So the prospect of El Niño cooking us this summer has waned? But the potential to lose our roofs later in the year from La Nina has increased?

<hell in a hand cart>
Click to expand...
No. The odds are stacked in favour of a hot summer AND an exciting hurricane season. It can take time (eg months) for some ENSO consequences to manifest in the northern hemisphere.
 
@MetOffice_Sci "How do natural weather systems El Niño & La Niña affect our global temperature? 👇 Fact: Current episodes of La Niña (associated with cooler global temperatures) are now warmer than some of the largest El Niño events (warmer temperatures) we saw around 20 and 25 yrs ago 👀 #BSW24"
The effect of El Niño and La Niña on global temperature.​
 
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