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Extinction Rebellion

i didn't think that Zion Lights was too bad with her responses Marty1. Neil is an intimidating rotweiller of an interviewer, and by focussing on a variety of data he is able to obfuscate the argument. Its his job. In the end, it comes down to who we are inclined to agree with doesn't it? i prefer not to agree with those whose entire career has involved speaking to the vested interests of capital and the continuation of a fossil fuel economy.

Andrew Neil certainly is a Rottweiler but in this instance he was remarkably soft by his standards.

As for ‘vested interests’, Neil was stating IPCC reports to challenge XR false claims of billions dying (no scientific basis for this whatsoever) to which Zion actually admitted XR had clearly and intentionally sensationalised for gaining public and media attention, in her own words ‘alarmist language works’.

According to XR co-founder Stuart Basden, XR isn’t about climate change but rather a front for a political agenda.

And I’m here to say that XR isn’t about the climate. You see, the climate’s breakdown is a symptom of a toxic system of that has infected the ways we relate to each other as humans and to all life. This was exacerbated when European ‘civilisation’ was spread around the globe through cruelty and violence (especially) over the last 600 years of colonialism, although the roots of the infections go much further back.

Extinction Rebellion isn’t about the Climate
 
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Andrew Neil certainly is a Rottweiler but in this instance he was remarkably soft by his standards.

As for ‘vested interests’, Neil was stating IPCC reports to challenge XR false claims of billions dying (no scientific basis for this whatsoever) to which Zion actually admitted XR had clearly and intentionally sensationalised for gaining public and media attention, in her own words ‘alarmist language works’.

According to XR co-founder Stuart Basden, XR isn’t about climate change but rather a front for a political agenda.



Extinction Rebellion isn’t about the Climate

i don't know about you Marty1, but i have found that debate about scientific veracity is very similar to debates between economists. Inconclusive.

How often have scientists changed their views as more data reveals ever greater complexity in each particular field of enquiry? Its the scientific method to do so. Climate change science is replete with people who have radically altered their public stances no? i believe that leaves the unscientific public in a reasonably healthy state of generalised scepticism, and in such circumstances there is an obligation upon those who are dedicated to social and economic change to exploit that uncertainty. So, on this, i agree with Stuart Basden of XR. And i can't take Andrew Neil's deliberate confusions seriously.
 
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Andrew Neil blocked my Twitter account because I disagreed with him on climate change. In fact he called me stupid, then blocked me and i regularly tweet about the science. I think if they really wanted to know about the science they could invite on one of the more media savvy IPCC scientists but they always seem to prefer to have on sceptics and inexperienced campaigners. Can't think why.

While i don't want to say billions will die - there is a lot of science around cliff edge collapses, feedback loops, and the likely death of the oceans much earlier than previously thought. It's certainly a possibilty.
 
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Climate change science has had almost total consensus for years that man-made climate change is real. You have to really go searching for selectively edited data to find anything else. The debate merely surrounds how quickly and severely it is happening, and how bad the consequences will be.
 
Climate change science has had almost total consensus for years that man-made climate change is real. You have to really go searching for selectively edited data to find anything else. The debate merely surrounds how quickly and severely it is happening, and how bad the consequences will be.
And that really should be the end of it, but there are still idiots who will say "yeah but, one specific prediction that was made ten years ago turned out not to be precisely correct, so I'm going to claim that the whole thing is bullshit"...
 
And that really should be the end of it, but there are still idiots who will say "yeah but, one specific prediction that was made ten years ago turned out not to be precisely correct, so I'm going to claim that the whole thing is bullshit"...

There have also been previous predictions based on targets we have steamed right through, where the actual effects are still a far way down the line. The Jury is still out on whether concerns over hitting 350 ppm CO2 were groundless, but I’m not sure whether by this time we were even meant to be seeing these upticks in extreme weather.

Humans don’t really seem to be set up for thinking on such timescales, it seems not to be built into our evolved way of dealing with threats.

XR’s shrill warnings of incoming binary apocalypse seem to both confirm and acknowledge this.
 
There have also been previous predictions based on targets we have steamed right through, where the actual effects are still a far way down the line. The Jury is still out on whether concerns over hitting 350 ppm CO2 were groundless, but I’m not sure whether by this time we were even meant to be seeing these upticks in extreme weather.

Humans don’t really seem to be set up for thinking on such timescales, it seems not to be built into our evolved way of dealing with threats.

XR’s shrill warnings of incoming binary apocalypse seem to both confirm and acknowledge this.
there's this from siberia from 2005 Siberians fear minus 30 is too warm for comfort

a 20 degree change in temperature, even from -50 to -30, is something to concern - and that was 14 years ago
 
It is pretty straight-faced :D most of the time anyway

No one is dipping a toe in just yet, despite active posting on other topics.
Might be a "can we get a supervisor on aisle 12?" situation... :hmm:

edit: actually looks like a case of "delete branding clarity violation" - wonder whether they'll reply
edit2: is back up but no comments on it
 
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i didn't think that Zion Lights was too bad with her responses Marty1. Neil is an intimidating rotweiller of an interviewer, and by focussing on a variety of data he is able to obfuscate the argument. Its his job. In the end, it comes down to who we are inclined to agree with doesn't it? i prefer not to agree with those whose entire career has involved speaking to the vested interests of capital and the continuation of a fossil fuel economy.

I'm not aware of any climatologist in the world who backs Hallam's doomsday scenario, at best a couple have supported using the absolute most extreme scenarios as a way of scaring people into action, but none endorse the wilder claims. And when one of your key demands is to tell the truth about climate science then repeatedly misrepresenting the science isn;t a great look.
 
I'm not aware of any climatologist in the world who backs Hallam's doomsday scenario, at best a couple have supported using the absolute most extreme scenarios as a way of scaring people into action, but none endorse the wilder claims. And when one of your key demands is to tell the truth about climate science then repeatedly misrepresenting the science isn;t a great look.

Most of my reading on climate stuff is a few years out of date, but yeah, there is a whiff of millenarian cult to a good bit of the sloganeering I’ve seen.
 
I'm not aware of any climatologist in the world who backs Hallam's doomsday scenario, at best a couple have supported using the absolute most extreme scenarios as a way of scaring people into action, but none endorse the wilder claims. And when one of your key demands is to tell the truth about climate science then repeatedly misrepresenting the science isn;t a great look.

I agree with your last point, but climatologists give a range of possible futures in their predictions, not just one. And those predictions range from 'very bad' to 'oh shiiiiit' depending on which of the uncertainties such as feedback loops happens. Some of those things could happen very quickly indeed, such as the breaking up of the Greenland ice sheet. Some experts think it may already be too late to save the Greenland ice sheet now whatever we do.

There is consensus that nowhere near enough is being done and that there is no time left for dithering - we've already had more than 30 years of dithering and time is running out.
 
No one is dipping a toe in just yet, despite active posting on other topics.
Might be a "can we get a supervisor on aisle 12?" situation... :hmm:

edit: actually looks like a case of "delete branding clarity violation" - wonder whether they'll reply
edit2: is back up but no comments on it

Comment direct from XR (only a local group, admitedly): "Spoof. We aim to change the status quo. No business as usual we say. Pass this on please"
 
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Community Groups - Extinction Rebellion

Under professions and skills - Landlords

Yeah, trying to get an opinion from local group about existence of that.

2 Facebook groups, one marked as “official” (a third the size of the presumably “non official one).

Quite a few members/watchers; no posts or comments on either group in the last month.

Has a bit of a “stink eye corner” look to it, in other words. Imo.
 
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I agree with your last point, but climatologists give a range of possible futures in their predictions, not just one. And those predictions range from 'very bad' to 'oh shiiiiit' depending on which of the uncertainties such as feedback loops happens. Some of those things could happen very quickly indeed, such as the breaking up of the Greenland ice sheet. Some experts think it may already be too late to save the Greenland ice sheet now whatever we do.

There is consensus that nowhere near enough is being done and that there is no time left for dithering - we've already had more than 30 years of dithering and time is running out.

And it’s worth remembering that the central estimates we see are not the mean of the true skewed distribution but just the 50/50 as determined by committees that also have an institutional tendency to err on the conservative side, ie underestimate the effect. The true best estimate is thus statistically a fair bit worse than the published central projection.
 
i don't know about you Marty1, but i have found that debate about scientific veracity is very similar to debates between economists. Inconclusive.
What debate was that now?
How often have scientists changed their views as more data reveals ever greater complexity in each particular field of enquiry? Its the scientific method to do so. Climate change science is replete with people who have radically altered their public stances no? i believe that leaves the unscientific public in a reasonably healthy state of generalised scepticism,
This is just pompous twaddle. You have no clue what you are talking about that why your bullshitting is all vague and handwavy.
Here is a basic introductory text book into the topic, its light on the maths so should be easy to follow. If you do not want to pay for that, then try a free online course
https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-of-climate-science-denial-2
It has been specifically set up for non science majors.
Go away, do some reading and learning and stop making a tit out of yourself.
 
And it’s worth remembering that the central estimates we see are not the mean of the true skewed distribution but just the 50/50 as determined by committees that also have an institutional tendency to err on the conservative side, ie underestimate the effect. The true best estimate is thus statistically a fair bit worse than the published central projection.

i) Do you have any evidence for that?

ii) Out of XR’s view (lets go with Hallam’s personal pronouncements, just for the sake of argument), vs. the consensus of the most recent IPCC reports, do you have an opinion on who is closest?

Edit: not being disingenuous - my reading on the whole subject is admittedly a few years out of date.
 
What debate was that now?
This is just pompous twaddle. You have no clue what you are talking about that why your bullshitting is all vague and handwavy.
Here is a basic introductory text book into the topic, its light on the maths so should be easy to follow. If you do not want to pay for that, then try a free online course
https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-of-climate-science-denial-2
It has been specifically set up for non science majors.
Go away, do some reading and learning and stop making a tit out of yourself.

Well well you fucking unpleasant dickhead. Is it because you are incapable of reading a full sentence that you fail so abysmally to understand something that even my dim witted brain damaged whippet can appreciate, namely that there is disagreement amongst scientists about the likely outcome of climate change? my incapably stupid dog can also appreciate the difference between making a short general point on a forum and writing and submitting a fact and figure assessed dissertation.

As for your offensive reference to being handwavy - perhaps you would like to explain?
 
Lol.

Also what's an executive coach? I thought it was a posh bus

I find it hard to scoff too much when I compare it to the weirdness and wank of some lefty groups.

On that point, they seem to have done quite well on avoiding petty tribalisms so far (the main schism at the moment seems to be between the “mainstream” and the hardcore vegimentalists).
 
If people are trying to follow these kind of discussions but perhaps struggling to sort the wheat from the chaffe, some simple rules you may wish to apply?
1) If they say "scientists say" but do not link to at the least a peer reviewed study, treat their claims as highly suspicious. At best they are likely to miss much of the nuance of what scientists said at worst they are just making it up.
2) If they start waffling about "climate debates" also treat their comments as highly suspicious. Generally those kind of comments are akin to "why wont scientists debate evolution". Where science is debated is in the peer reviewed literature. Its really unfollowable for most people, but that is what you get with a very technical field built on a foundation of maths and physics.
3) Anyone who starts talking about "models". Also a red flag, almost all of physics for the past 500 years has been about building mathematical models of the universe around us to try to make predictions and test ideas. It is literally what Johannes Kepler, Galileo and Newton were doing. The fact that climate science relies on models is because it is a branch of physics. (quick primer from NOAA on them.)
4) When people start talking vaguely about feedback loops (I seen the XR bod on the youtube thing with Andrew Neil pull this stunt and others on here), again bit of a red flag someone is about to bullshit and bluster. Sometimes its how climate change is only a threat from "computer feedback loops" and other times its "worst than we thought" because of some mystery feedbacks. Svante Arrhenius, the first man to predict that our CO2 might warm the planet, knew about feedback loops, in his case his hand calculation included warming from the extra water vapor. They are not something that only eco-activists or right wing billionaire owned think tanks know about.
If you have insomnia, here is about 60 pages of the IPCC talking about them.
5)If someone starts talking about methane..... They are probably talking crap. There is many doomer blogs that spout unending predictions of near term doom invoking methane and often articles will appear in mainstream press about it only to get shredded by the actual scientists.
Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on "The Uninhabitable Earth" gets wrong


If people are interested or concerned\panicked about these issues then I would encourage you to go to the science forum and ask there. Better yet find one of the many online courses where actual scientists are keen to teach you about this science.
 
Well well you fucking unpleasant dickhead. Is it because you are incapable of reading a full sentence that you fail so abysmally to understand something that even my dim witted brain damaged whippet can appreciate,
:D

? my incapably stupid dog can also appreciate the difference between making a short general point on a forum and writing and submitting a fact and figure assessed dissertation.
:oldthumbsup:
Try decaf for a few days, see how it works out for you.
 
If people are trying to follow these kind of discussions but perhaps struggling to sort the wheat from the chaffe, some simple rules you may wish to apply?
1) If they say "scientists say" but do not link to at the least a peer reviewed study, treat their claims as highly suspicious. At best they are likely to miss much of the nuance of what scientists said at worst they are just making it up.
2) If they start waffling about "climate debates" also treat their comments as highly suspicious. Generally those kind of comments are akin to "why wont scientists debate evolution". Where science is debated is in the peer reviewed literature. Its really unfollowable for most people, but that is what you get with a very technical field built on a foundation of maths and physics.
3) Anyone who starts talking about "models". Also a red flag, almost all of physics for the past 500 years has been about building mathematical models of the universe around us to try to make predictions and test ideas. It is literally what Johannes Kepler, Galileo and Newton were doing. The fact that climate science relies on models is because it is a branch of physics. (quick primer from NOAA on them.)
4) When people start talking vaguely about feedback loops (I seen the XR bod on the youtube thing with Andrew Neil pull this stunt and others on here), again bit of a red flag someone is about to bullshit and bluster. Sometimes its how climate change is only a threat from "computer feedback loops" and other times its "worst than we thought" because of some mystery feedbacks. Svante Arrhenius, the first man to predict that our CO2 might warm the planet, knew about feedback loops, in his case his hand calculation included warming from the extra water vapor. They are not something that only eco-activists or right wing billionaire owned think tanks know about.
If you have insomnia, here is about 60 pages of the IPCC talking about them.
5)If someone starts talking about methane..... They are probably talking crap. There is many doomer blogs that spout unending predictions of near term doom invoking methane and often articles will appear in mainstream press about it only to get shredded by the actual scientists.
Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on "The Uninhabitable Earth" gets wrong


If people are interested or concerned\panicked about these issues then I would encourage you to go to the science forum and ask there. Better yet find one of the many online courses where actual scientists are keen to teach you about this science.
You patronising git. :D I have 'been taught" about this stuff - first time by scientists at the Hadley Centre best part of a decade ago. I can tell you that those that study this stuff are generally waaaaaay more worried by it and its implications than those that don't.
 
i) Do you have any evidence for that?

ii) Out of XR’s view (lets go with Hallam’s personal pronouncements, just for the sake of argument), vs. the consensus of the most recent IPCC reports, do you have an opinion on who is closest?

Edit: not being disingenuous - my reading on the whole subject is admittedly a few years out of date.
My evidence is, without being disingenuous or facetious myself, 20 years of having to present statistical projections to boards and committees. It’s just how it goes — what goes into the official report is never the best estimate of the full statistical distribution (including allowance for parameter and model uncertainty) unless there is some kind of regulatory mandate for it.
 
My evidence is, without being disingenuous or facetious myself, 20 years of having to present statistical projections to boards and committees. It’s just how it goes — what goes into the official report is never the best estimate of the full statistical distribution (including allowance for parameter and model uncertainty) unless there is some kind of regulatory mandate for it.

I didn’t ask specifically about which is best (which can get skewed for an assortment of reasons), but why the IPCC should necessarily err on the side of the conservative.

Plenty of parties take your reasoning and use it to imply the opposite view.

Also, you dismiss comment on who is likely to be more reliable out of Hallam vs, say, the IPCC.
 
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