Ethiopian Airlines 737 crashes on way to Kenya 157 onboard.

[2hats]

Ryanair are due to start introducing the 737 MAX 200 (737-8-200) on routes from Stansted from May through to July (with their fun new 28" seat pitch).

 

[Dogsauce]

Fortunately the creepy Telegraph (and Times) have a nice middle class easy-on-the-eye female victim of the correct skin colour to stick on their front page.

 

[2hats]

FDR reported as located.

e2a: Ethiopian state TV report that the CVR has been recovered. So perhaps not the FDR yet. Or just confusion.

2e2a: ET now confirm both CVR and DFDR have been recovered.

 

[mauvais]

A Slovakian MP’s wife and two children on board, awful.

China has grounded all aircraft of this model, would be amazed if other countries/airlines didn’t follow suit very quickly. I have woken today to four separate customers requesting we don’t book them on this plane.

It sounds like passenger demand will probably see all MAXes grounded for a while.

 

[2hats]

In the UK current MAX operators include Norwegian (8) and TUI (6).

 

[2hats]

The impact site is some 33km SE of the nadir point of the last piece of FR24 data (which might provide some idea of their coverage and degree of terrain masking in the area).

 

[Idris2002]

 

[Sasaferrato]

And the second major crash of the MAX-800 in three months. No evidence yet of what caused this one, but the pattern bears similarities to the Lion Air crash- both show an erratic climb rate and a crash a few minutes after takeoff.

We are due to fly to Turkey in May, with Tui, who use these aircraft and haven't grounded them.

 

[Idris2002]

My cursory reading of this link suggests that there might be a major scandal about to break over this one:

U.S. pilots flying 737 MAX weren’t told about new automatic systems change linked to Lion Air crash

From this thread here:

 

[Sasaferrato]

Interesting article here:

What is the Boeing 737 Max Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My cursory reading of this link suggests that there might be a major scandal about to break over this one:

U.S. pilots flying 737 MAX weren’t told about new automatic systems change linked to Lion Air crash

From this thread here:

After the Lion Air crash when this fault was first mentioned I thought it was a bit that the entire fleet wasn't grounded. Heard mentioned this morning Boeing are still working on a 'patch' to the software. If that's what's caused this and they've know about it for months, then some folk at Boeing are going to need to account for themselves.

 

[Sasaferrato]

My cursory reading of this link suggests that there might be a major scandal about to break over this one:

U.S. pilots flying 737 MAX weren’t told about new automatic systems change linked to Lion Air crash

From this thread here:

From the article linked above, not quite accurate.

The problem is that the re-design of the aircraft has pushed the engines forward and higher. The landing gear has also been extended to give more ground clearance for the engines. the re-siting of the engines has changed the planes centre of gravity, which paradoxically is causing the plane's nose to rise, this makes the AOA (Angle of Attack) steeper, and therefore more likely to stall.

The link above details the new system introduced (very very quietly) to counter what seems to be a major design flaw.

The changes to the aircraft give a 14% increase in fuel efficiency, which explains why the order book for this aircraft is full, at the moment.

 

[Sasaferrato]

After the Lion Air crash when this fault was first mentioned I thought it was a bit that the entire fleet wasn't grounded. Heard mentioned this morning Boeing are still working on a 'patch' to the software. If that's what's caused this and they've know about it for months, then some folk at Boeing are going to need to account for themselves.

Pity it wasn't China. the guilty would be marched out at dawn. (Or whenever the Chinese deliver what in this case would be a 'just' bullet.).

If they have withheld information, and that has resulted in the deaths of several hundred people, they deserve to go away for the rest of their natural.

 

[Idris2002]

Pity it wasn't China. the guilty would be marched out at dawn. (Or whenever the Chinese deliver what in this case would be a 'just' bullet.).

If they have withheld information, and that has resulted in the deaths of several hundred people, they deserve to go away for the rest of their natural.

That kind of thing's been known to happen, but I can't think why you would withhold that information in this case. Why not just be upfront about the new system?

 

[2hats]

the re-siting of the engines has changed the planes centre of gravity, which paradoxically is causing the plane's nose to rise, this makes the AOA (Angle of Attack) steeper, and therefore more likely to stall.

No paradox at all. Basic physics. A simple forces diagram illustrates why AOA tends to increase - there is an increased turning moment about the centre of gravity from the repositioned CFM engines. Their larger, nacelle design also contributes additional lift to that torque.

The changes to the aircraft give a 14% increase in fuel efficiency

Well that and flying ever tighter in coffin corner.

 

[T & P]

From the article linked above, not quite accurate.

The problem is that the re-design of the aircraft has pushed the engines forward and higher. The landing gear has also been extended to give more ground clearance for the engines. the re-siting of the engines has changed the planes centre of gravity, which paradoxically is causing the plane's nose to rise, this makes the AOA (Angle of Attack) steeper, and therefore more likely to stall.

The link above details the new system introduced (very very quietly) to counter what seems to be a major design flaw.

The changes to the aircraft give a 14% increase in fuel efficiency, which explains why the order book for this aircraft is full, at the moment.

Boeing have been pushing the very old design that is the 737 to the limit in order to keep up with the much newer A320. The 737's very low ground clearance has always been a design headache, specially regarding what size engines it can have hanging from its wings.

 

[mauvais]

That kind of thing's been known to happen, but I can't think why you would withhold that information in this case. Why not just be upfront about the new system?

Because, in general, you want pilots to fly the plane and not have to deal with loads of technical information - there's a risk that they overanalyse and apply an inappropriate technique to some unrelated problem.

 

[mauvais]

Anyway despite all the AOA stuff, various witnesses claimed that this aircraft was on fire before it crashed. How reliable that is is unclear.

 

[Sasaferrato]

No paradox at all. Basic physics. A simple forces diagram illustrates why AOA tends to increase - there is an increased turning moment about the centre of gravity from the repositioned CFM engines. Their larger, nacelle design also contributes additional lift to that torque.

Well that and flying ever tighter in coffin corner.

On the ground, if you have a length of wood balanced on a point, then add weight, the side with the added weight will go down. That is why I said paradoxically.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Are they the only aircraft with those peculiar wingtips?

 

[2hats]

Are they the only aircraft with those peculiar wingtips?

Split scimitar winglets. The MD11 also had them.

 

[2hats]

On the ground, if you have a length of wood balanced on a point, then add weight, the side with the added weight will go down. That is why I said paradoxically.

This isn't comparable.

 

[Sasaferrato]

This isn't comparable.

So it would seem.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Split scimitar winglets. The MD11 also had them.

No longer in service?

 

[baldrick]

That kind of thing's been known to happen, but I can't think why you would withhold that information in this case. Why not just be upfront about the new system?

It was a cost thing wasn't it? Trying to avoid the need for retraining by saying the new aircraft handles the same as the old one.

Only the Brazilian authorities called shenanigans and didn't agree.

 

[2hats]

No longer in service?

Still in use by various cargo operators and a few private groups.

 

[T & P]

Not telling the pilots of this device st the entry into service date was a fuck up by Boeing IMO. It’s all very well to issue instructions on how to handle situations when it kicks in, but the fact that Boeing has been working on a software patch (still not ready) suggests the technology is flawed to some degree, even if it turns out the pilots of either crashed plane didn’t follow procedure.

 

[2hats]

Anyway despite all the AOA stuff, various witnesses claimed that this aircraft was on fire before it crashed. How reliable that is is unclear.

One report can be dismissed as potentially unreliable but Reuters report finding several people providing similar accounts, namely 'fire' (sparks, smoke) from the rear of the plane, spilling luggage and a "strange rattling noise" both prior to impact with terrain. If they truly are independent witness reports then that could be significant. However, equally, the eye-witnesses could mistakenly be reporting "white smoke" when actually observing vapour trailing or fuel dumping.

The lack of ADS-B data after 6 minutes into the flight, until impact some 20km of travel (several minutes) later, not only illustrates ADS-B coverage limits but points to a lack of altitude for the remaining flight duration otherwise it would re-appear above the local ADS-B receiver(s) horizon(s).

These factors might encourage investigators to rule out in-flight fire, small incendiary/explosive device or contributory engine issue (HAAB is relatively high altitude and tends to be hot which will contribute to lack of lift at take off).

 

[mauvais]

I don't think public FR24 data constitutes valuable information. There are so many reasons why it (or its omissions) may not portray reality. Neither do inexpert witness statements which as well as being unreliable may interfere with each other.

We know very little. It seems to have impacted at a steep angle, burnt out and left very little remaining wreckage.

 

[smmudge]

Nevertheless I don't think I want to get on one of these planes.