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Egypt anti-government protests grow

OK I've found some stuff from March:

http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/03/18/egypt-faces-a-potentially-chaotic-summer/

Opposition leader Essam Al-Islambouli of the National Salvation Front told Al-Ahram Weekly, “Today, we don’t just have a convoluted political process, but we are also facing confused and disturbing economic challenges, and we are seeing the threat of citizens bearing arms against each other. We might be reaching a point at which it will become inevitable for the Armed Forces to step in.”

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of Egypt’s Constitutional Party and founding member of the opposition National Salvation Front, told Ahram Onlinethat while he doesn’t “hope the military takes over,” it would be better to be ruled by the military than by Islamic militias.
With the police overwhelmed—and on strike—Morsi was forced to call in the Egyptian Army to confront the rioters, but military commanders were less than happy at being caught between the demonstrators and the government. “The Egyptian armed forces is a combat institution not a security institution,” grumbled Gen. Ahmed Wasfi, head of the Army division sent into Port Said. “No one can imagine the Army replacing the Interior Ministry.”

Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi warned the Morsi government not to try and “brotherhoodise” the military, and also hinted darkly that the continued unrest could bring about a possible “collapse of the state.” It was a sobering statement from an institution that has intervened on other occasions in Egypt, including during the 1952 coup/ revolution that put Gamal Abdel Nasser into power.
 
And I suppose I should also reference the timeline al-Sisi gave in his coup speech.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23175529

In November 2012, the armed forces called for a national dialogue, to which all the national and political forces had responded, but which was rejected by the presidency at the last moment.

As parts of the efforts exerted in response to the current crisis, the General Command of the armed forces held a meeting with the president of the republic in the Quba Palace on 22 June. The armed forces expressed their opinion and conveyed rejection of inflecting harm on the state's national and religious institutions.
(last one fits with public threats made the next day)
 
I am just not sure what the MB could have done to be provided with a bigger popular mandate. They certainly had one.

Morsi could have not moulded the constitutional decree and referendum to rubber stamp, could have not asserted that if the constitution is not passed, the President would continue to with supreme executive power.

The Brotherhood has no legitimacy or mandate in power with its consitution, and nor does the army for its coup.

The suggestion from you is that the Brotherhood does, but the army doesn't.
I think this is wholly wrong and this kind of tale will help the Brotherhood carve itself into a further power bid in the future. The Brotherhood analysis is all on the lines of deranged hoodlums, secularists, Copts, foreign powers and foreign-trained officers behind an illegitimate cancellation of a heroic Presidency fighting for the downtrodded Sunni masses. We should pick apart its fantasies on both counts.

Additionally, Egyptian politics over the last year has been nothing but MB and the military posturing against each other. We'll see if large swathes of the Egyptian lower classes become less militant / radicalised as a result of all of this.

It's not simply been posturing against - some of the most significant elements of the constitution were the efforts to preserve power and privileges for the armed forces.

Because the armed forces and the whole top layers of society still feel foreboding from the mood from below - an unpredictable popular feeling that the revolution and hundreds of martyrs etc has been in vain, they become more likely to intervene as protests and forebodings of future protests against the Brotherhood gathered pace.

Mursi's 22 November decree gave himself any powers to take any decisions for the purpose of national unity and stability, and declared that no judges could review such decisions. In this climate came the race for the new constitution to split power equally between Brotherhood and military. It did not struggle against the military.
The Brotherhood first put in articles allowing military prosecutors to try civilians for crimes against the Armed Forces. It then - against the opposition of other parties - rammed through parliamentary secrecy for the military budget so that it would not be listed in full in its expenditure, so that even questions in parliament let alone select committees about military expenditure cannot be put.
It also proposed the new national defence council system, headed by President a minister or two with the military commanders to meet monthly to discuss national security issues, military budgets and veto future laws related to the military, and with an article allowing for unspecified extra powers to be granted by the President to this national defence council away from the parliament.
It then rammed through articles maintaining shariah justice as the 'main source of legislation' (defined as [Sunni Muslim] jurisprudence from El Azhar university) and with bits stating Christianity and Judaism will be the “main source of legislation” for Egyptian Christians and Jews.

Some parliamentarians resigned at all these articles being rammed through without discussion on state media or in parliament in an increasingly threatening environment with police raids on minor opposition parties accused of fomenting the protests against the decree.

What did the Brotherhood do? It just replaced them with yesmen from the Brotherhood party list, as the constitutional decrees allowed no new elections. So it all went through through the judicature and came out in the form of a referendum, which was entirely a democratic facade, mostly boycotted but imposed with state TV and dire warnings of chaos if it was rejected, the Brotherhood channels warning of foreign (ie Coptic) agents stirring up trouble leading to Brotherhood attacks on Copts.

An AP report - soft on the Brotherhood not explaining all the details - on the Constitution rammed through parliament:

The Islamist-dominated assembly that has been working on the constitution for months raced to pass it, voting article by article on the draft's more than 230 articles for more than 16 hours. The lack of inclusion was on display in the nationally televised gathering: Of the 85 members in attendance, there was not a single Christian and only four women, all Islamists. Many of the men wore beards, the hallmark of Muslim conservatives.


During Thursday's session, assembly head Hossam al-Ghiryani doggedly pushed the members to finish. When one article received 16 objections, he pointed out that would require postponing the vote 48 hours under the body's rules. "Now I'm taking the vote again," he said, and all but four members dropped their objections. In the session's final hours, several new articles were hastily written up and added to resolve lingering issues.

Over the past week, about 30 members have pulled out of the assembly, with mainly Islamists brought in to replace some. As a result, every article passed overwhelmingly.
...

One article that passed underlined that the state will protect "the true nature of the Egyptian family ... and promote its morals and values," phrasing that suggests the state could prevent anything deemed to undermine the family.

The draft says citizens are equal under the law but an article specifically establishing women's equality was dropped because of disputes over the phrasing.

As in past constitutions, the new draft said the "principles of Islamic law" will be the basis of law.

Previously, the term "principles" allowed wide leeway in interpreting Shariah. But in the draft, a separate new article is added that seeks to define "principles" by pointing to particular theological doctrines and their rules. That could give Islamists the tool for insisting on stricter implementation of rulings of Shariah.

Another new article states that Egypt's most respected Islamic institution, Al-Azhar, must be consulted on any matters related to Shariah, a measure critics fear will lead to oversight of legislation by clerics.

The draft also includes bans on "insulting or defaming all prophets and messengers" or even "insulting humans" — broad language that analysts warned could be used to crack down on many forms of speech.

It also preserves much of military's immunity from parliamentary scrutiny, putting its budget in the hands of the National Defense Council, which includes the president, the heads of the two houses of parliament and top generals.

---
So in all the army was happy with the constitution and the Brotherhood, but the gathering storm of Tamarrod and intensified street protest and possibly direct action did unsettle them.

I am sure you will be able to explain why the military arrested several workers in media organisations and MB commissars.

Because the military has its own agenda of imposing some measure of restriction against sources that might criticise the military. It obviously doesn't do it by shutting off the liberal channels first,

The Brotherhood commissars - who knows - might be charged for the various outbreaks of Brotherhood involved violence. Note that they're not releasing the foreign NGO workers that the Brotherhood jailed. Hypocrites that they are.
 
Again off-topic: Occasionally, coups and interventions have cut off and demobilised gathering protest movements in all sorts of countries even as they are ostensibly progressive coups against reactionary anti-democratic/civil dictatorship governments - eg 1958 in Pakistan, 1960 in Turkey, 1968 in Peru - there are others. I think Egypt's military intervention now might be a smaller scale version of this.

hugo chavez MBR 200 group attempted 2 coups in the early 90s and effectively mobilised and emboldened previously non existent or moribund protest movements . Political participation increased tenfold after those..failed..coups.
not that im even attempting to compare this to what he attempted. I do admit though to vainly fantasising in the back of my mind about some nasserite officer cadre emerging but theres more chance of poor Hugo coming back to life .
 
Closure of channels by military dictate is a bad step. It happened in Turkey in 1997-8, there were several channels pumping extremely inflamatory stuff against alevis/alawites, they were investigated and the funders of the hard Salafi group like Turkish Hizballah were brought to trial everyone applauded 'army and people hand in hand' was the slogan, but then around 750 university teachers were investigated some sentenced for religious extremism and separatism, heavy money fines (like how the current civil government operates) were placed on other channels and other such things occurred.
 
hugo chavez MBR 200 group attempted 2 coups in the early 90s and effectively mobilised and emboldened previously non existent or moribund protest movements . Political participation increased tenfold after those..failed..coups.
not that im even attempting to compare this to what he attempted. I do admit though to vainly fantasising in the back of my mind about some nasserite officer cadre emerging but theres more chance of poor Hugo coming back to life .

As you hint, they were junior coups - doing things with out orders from above essentially from the officer level and below of radicalised units - very different to the Egypt one just now.
 
free spirit, we are not talking about one election. We are talking about a parliamentary election which returned an overwhelming victory for islamists (think if this occured in the USA - constitutional changes would have been made much easier). In fact a lot of the problems are probably the result of the popularity of the Salafists in that election. There was also a referendum on the constitution.

sihhi - Do you think there will be a civilian government in the forseeable future that will be better bulwark against encroachment from the military? The MB was the largest opposition group to Mubarak throughout his reign.

Ignoring the type of political harrassment that occurs in poor countries across the world, the main thrust of your argument seems to be a suggestion that there should have been reforms of the Assembly, that list members should not be allowed to be replaced by the party. Perhaps the Judge Club's partial boycott as well (note: one of its members has now been appointed president of egypt by the military)?

I am not sure what you propose islamists do if they are not allowed to use the electoral system to push for a strict adherence to their interpretation of sharia law. What should we do about islamists then? Effectively ban parties advocating it? Fight a war with them? The people may change but the same crap will happen all over again sooner or later. If there are elections, some conservative islamist faction will come back into power eventually creating the type of cabal that the MB created.

Only if your definition of what politics is is utterly bizarre. Sorry but this claim is just mad nonsense, how can a coup not be political?

Perhaps, I did try and edit the comment. It was in response to the idea you cannot condemn a coup because of the political wrangling that preceded it.
 
sihhi - Do you think there will be a civilian government in the forseeable future that will be better bulwark against encroachment from the military?

Governments don't resist military generals and their economic power - ordinary people
I am not Mystic Meg to know what the future government will be like.
All we can really here in Britain seek is that the past record not be misconstrued. have no idea what the future

The MB was the largest opposition group to Mubarak throughout his reign.

As has been repeatedly explained the Brotherhood had a very funny kind of pseudo-opposition to the NDP that involved constant deals and attempted deals with the regime - constantly working to knife the real opposition in the back, whilst beating its chest as 'we're the biggest opposition'.
It only joined the protests against Mubarak at about the same time as the military started making its move.

Ignoring the type of political harrassment that occurs in poor countries across the world, the main thrust of your argument seems to be a suggestion that there should have been reforms of the Assembly, that list members should not be allowed to be replaced by the party. Perhaps the Judge Club's partial boycott as well (note: one of its members has now been appointed president of egypt by the military)?

That's replacing Coptic opposition members with Brotherhood people. It's like a Russian opposition deputy resigns and Putin replaces him (with no election) with a member of Edinaya Rossiya, with a particular Sunni sectarian bent.
I am not going to give advice to these vampires Putin or Morsi, they do what they want but it shouldn't be accepted as 'democracy'.

The whole point is that the 22 November decree was a coup - a Latin America style autogolpe - to drive through the constitution.


What should we do about islamists then? Effectively ban parties advocating it? Fight a war with them? The people may change but the same crap will happen all over again sooner or later. If there are elections, some conservative islamist faction will come back into power eventually creating the type of cabal that the MB created.

Fight them by popular means, resist their sectarian constitutions and weakening of women in the public sphere, break apart their economic block by supporting strike action against their business interests. As part of a wider attempt for social measures against all stripes of capitalists. Not bring the generals in.

Part of that involves telling the truth about them. Not letting them dictate their story of victimhood, accusing others of betraying the revolution whilst they have betrayed it the most. Showing how they are happy to drain their own footsoldiers' blood on sometimes empty sometimes vicious attacks against Coptic churches or opposition protests.

I am not sure what you propose islamists do if they are not allowed to use the electoral system to push for a strict adherence to their interpretation of sharia law.

Have I said that Islamists be denied the right to use the electoral system?

I believe all anti-working class fields of Islamist behaviour should be resisted - when they attack opposition rallies, when (in the harsher form in Sudan) they get their doctors to amputate hands and feet, when they purge state employees, when they strikebreak during trade union action, when they agitate for separate sex buses and public transport, when they call for state funding of religionised services esp. childcare and education etc etc.

If they set up public services and transport and creches with free and equal access to all citizens that would be acknowledged and welcomed. But the Brotherhood didn't do that, instead just before Morsi's decree and the consitution crisis they quietly slipped through legislation to begin cutting their deficit from over 10% to under 5% - ie public spending cuts.
 
Andrew Neil on This Week just said that Egypt has a 5,000 year history but it has never in all that time had democracy.
Is that true?
 
Andrew Neil on This Week just said that Egypt has a 5,000 year history but it has never in all that time had democracy.
Is that true?

no,the wafds were democratically elected and told the british to kindly leave.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wafd_Party that their mandate to oversee the transition from Dynistical monarchy to constitutional republic were thwarted at every turn by the british residency doesn't sit well with his worldveiw
 
Have I said that Islamists be denied the right to use the electoral system?

Hypothetically, what would you allow the islamists to do if they received over two-thirds seats in the parliament, win the presidential election, and would likely win a referendum for any changes they wish to make to the constitution?
 
Hypothetically, what would you allow the islamists to do if they received over two-thirds seats in the parliament, win the presidential election, and would likely win a referendum for any changes they wish to make to the constitution?

I assume this is a reference to Turkey 2007-2011, where the Islamist party had 62% seats in parliament, and so appointed their own president and won its referendum to amend the constitution to benefit its own party on the basis of a split parliamentary opposition (half boycotting, half voting no).
The answer: not too different from above, resistance to all anti-working class measures whatever their origin.
 
Not a good sign



The Brotherhood really become an opposite pole to the army (seeking the return of "how things were" meaning before where they were able to indefinitely detain Egyptian Popular Current activists) only when a popular movement emerges.
Until that point they ride the coat-tails of the armed forces agreeing to all its demands that target anyone but them.
The popular movement against them of course brings fears of 'chaos' and the opposition leadership are terrified of blood so they effectively allowing the army to ride over the popular protests and screw everything up.

Today there are protests by Brotherhood supporters after Friday prayers - which will probably be an attempt to goad the army into more arrests (lots of anti-army slogans).
If they were serious they'd strip themselves of their sectarianism and sexism, admit a mistake or two, and try to join the real parts of Tahrir opposed both to their constitutional coup and the army's "corrective" coup. But they're not, so they won't, so the poles - army and Brotherhood - look like they will stay firm for the present time.
 
This apparently is Beltagy calling for an Intifada. This is the sort of thing that just blows all that democratic guff above from poo flakes last night straight out the window.

edit: western reporters seem to have it as saying a intifada has been provoked, arabic speakers as calling for it. Either way, he/they are putting it on the table as a threat.
 
...Today there are protests by Brotherhood supporters after Friday prayers - which will probably be an attempt to goad the army into more arrests (lots of anti-army slogans)...
March to the ministry of Defence apparently.

'Us? Goad you? Never!'
 
March to the ministry of Defence apparently.

'Us? Goad you? Never!'

I don't think they should be arrested. But their plan appears to be for getting arrests of ordinary supporters not simply the party chiefs and media channels - that's what the Egypt watchers are saying on twitter. The Ministry of Defence is the ministry Mursi pumped lots into without parliamentary security.
Apparently, there was a rocket attack onto an air force barracks in Sinai last night, 6 soldiers injured, 1 killed.

Edit AP report:

http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-closes-gaza-border-clashes-sinai-091600523.html
 
If they were serious they'd strip themselves of their sectarianism and sexism, admit a mistake or two, and try to join the real parts of Tahrir opposed both to their constitutional coup and the army's "corrective" coup


That's what a really good Egyptian political analysist said on the news last night
 
This apparently is Beltagy calling for an Intifada. This is the sort of thing that just blows all that democratic guff above from poo flakes last night straight out the window.

This is fucking idiotic. That was bound to have happened in response to a military coup.

I can come to terms with the appeal of radical islam amongst the poor in many countries. It is reactionary and you might rightly argue that figures like Ahmadinejad are just opportunistic patriachs and their views do not represent those of their supporters. But to claim they are not popular, particularly amongst the rural poor, is crazy.

This kind of bullshit logic - "they are not actually popular, just exploitative" - was thrown at the communist and left-wing political factions across South America for decades to justify coups.
 
This is fucking idiotic. That was bound to have happened in response to a military coup.

What? 'Let's hound out the Copts, we know where they live'. Bound to happen, after all, when Pinochet came to power the MIR started turning on high Catholic churches.

The actual record following the 1980 coup in Turkey:- the Islamists denounced the Communists, said they didn't really mean what they said about shariah and Islamic law, and get a five month stay in an open air barracks. The Kurdish and communist movement got very severe torture aswell as death sentences for seventeen year olds on false evidence.
The Islamists didn't fight the military then, they waited for the left to be eroded and then took up the cudgels only in the space which the military allowed to do open organisation on populist Islamist lines.

In Egypt they're fighting the military in this inept fashion this time only to exploit the matter for their own ends, as they do with their exploitation of Palestine and Jerusalem as they do with pornography, as do with Al Banna having been assassinated, as they do with charity to aid and inculcate consumption from their green capitalist wing.

If you want Latin American comparisons, Morsi did an autogolpe on 22 November to force his constitution through.
 
Ah yes, reminded me of Secretary of State, George Pratt Shultz, who referred to the Sandinista's in Nicaragua as a "cancer". Then, with the assistance of the Ayatollah's in Iran and the BCCI bank laundering drug money, with all the major drug traffickers in Latin America signing-up to 'Iran-Contra'. Serving the needs of Reagan's administration and wider interests, with Oliver North riding shotgun, who later told Congress he didn't find it "shocking" to bypass the US constitution and Congress to fund death squads.

Professor Edward Said, who before his death spoke about Islam having an '"astonishing variety" of cultures and counter cultures' and making an important distinction about there being a 'world of difference between Muslims in Indonesia and those in Egypt'. In so doing informing the world that Muslims are not just one homogeneous entity. With this in mind, the claim that 'radical Islam is "popular" amongst the poor in "many countries"' is at best over-stated and worse just plain nonsense.
 
Of course there is a huge number of contextual factors within countries and between them which drive people to certain political factions. Sihhi's comparison with Egypt and Peru is far more tenuous. For radicals, the type of reactionary response has always been a problem. Indeed, Ibn Khaldun pointed out the tensions between the rural and urban interests in North Africa hundreds of years ago.

I am not saying the Egyptian islamists are nice people but they do have a large base of support, particularly amongst the poor. Of course, there are generalisations between reactionaries across the world (just like there is similarities between the conservatives in Britain and the conservatives in Turkey).

I am unsure how celebrating the military-backed overthrow a democratically elected islamist government will a) address the concerns of their base (which primarily comprise the rural poor) or b) erode the support and encourage them to find common ground with their comrades in Cairo. All that seems to be offered from sihhi is diatribes against about how backward they are.
 
Of course there is a huge number of contextual factors within countries and between them which drive people to certain political factions. Sihhi's comparison with Egypt and Peru is far more tenuous. For radicals, the type of reactionary response has always been a problem. Indeed, Ibn Khaldun pointed out the tensions between the rural and urban interests in North Africa hundreds of years ago.

I didn't make any such comparison, but might have mentioned it above as one of a number of epoch-making coups around 1960 that overthrew elected formal democracies but had a progressive character, we could add Iraq 1958.

I am not saying the Egyptian islamists are nice people but they do have a large base of support, particularly amongst the poor.

Is there anything to respond to here? Don't know, so let's re-repeat something stark without considering what parts of it might have changed over the past 10 years or the past 1- 'we shouldn't say Edinaya Rossiya are nice people but they do have a large base of support, particularly amongst the poor'.

Of course, there are generalisations between reactionaries across the world (just like there is similarities between the conservatives in Britain and the conservatives in Turkey).

Yes - conservatives and reactionaries exploit social divisions into futile gestures to keep themselves in power and their coffers flowing. What is your point?

I am unsure how celebrating a democratically elected islamist government will a) address the concerns of their base (which primarily comprise the rural poor) or b) erode the support and encourage them to find common ground with their comrades in Cairo. All that seems to be offered from sihhi is diatribes against about how backward they are.

Not diatribes, posts based on communication from Egyptian socialists when they came to Britain last year, from just following what Morsi has actually done. No one is celebrating anything.
 
Given this is a UK board not sure how posters can Egyptise themselves to 'address the concerns of their base (which primarily comprise the rural poor)' and 'erode the support and encourage them to find common ground with their comrades in Cairo'.
I am not going to become some kind of oracle for what working-class Egyptians should do win the rural base of the Brotherhood from them.
If I post facts contradicting the Sunni Islamist assertions of victimhood for use here in Britain against our own liberals and Islamists, I become a diatribist according to you.

General-ordered coups appear to be against governments in fact they can often work against the people opposing those governments. The victims are the people not this fiction that the Brotherhood will try to pump out of a victimised government undermined at every step of the way by the military.
 
Troops (from which reg etc don't know) now reported firing live on morsi supporters at officers club.

Is that the Republican Guards Club where Morsi is under effective house arrest?
It's the obvious place for them to go.
 
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