Egypt anti-government protests grow

[sihhi]

It has been a lot longer than two years that the workingclass has suffered and I believe one of the reasons for the coup is to speed up the IMFs grasp on the country which will extend outside influence on any Egyptian government to a far greater extent.

The thread is about the developments since the start of the anti-Mubarak protests, but yes of course.

To trigger the release of the IMF money they need to cut food subsidies and fuel subsidies and soon after start privatization, public tendering for public services and all the other bullshit the IMF always impose as conditions of loans. It will be the poor and unskilled workingclass that will suffer most from the unemployment and increased cost.

This is the agreement, the Morsi government back in December had already started cutting subsidies by reducing them on butane and electricity bills (both went up in price), and increasing sales tax VAT on soft drink, wine, beer and cooking oil (also went up in price).

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12446.htm

 

[sihhi]

Austerity can be imposed without the IMF aswell of course, it's very unlikely but theoretically possible for the army to plot a Nasserist course against the IMF, but once again the brunt would be upon the working-class. The army generals and sub-general lieutenants have economic interests and deals, some of which might need protection against the IMF so it's not completely impossible.

 

[1%er]

The thread is about the developments since the start of the anti-Mubarak protests, but yes of course.




This is the agreement, the Morsi government back in December had already started cutting subsidies by reducing them on butane and electricity bills (both went up in price), and increasing sales tax VAT on soft drink, wine, beer and cooking oil (also went up in price).

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12446.htm

Yes he had little if any choice but he was taking his time, things will move much faster now.
I don't believe Morsi or the MB have done anything to improve the situation for the poor and workingclass while in government, they haven't really had much time. Will what now comes be any better, I fear not.

 

[sihhi]

I don't believe Morsi or the MB have done anything to improve the situation for the poor and workingclass while in government

Quite true they started severely attacking the poor and working-class from about November/ December onward, at which point combined with the constitutional referendum fiasco, his/their support flatlined.

 

[1%er]

Can they ban the freedom and justice party and if they do will the more radical Islamist party's benefit

I can't help but keep reminding myself that 72% of people that voted, voted for Islamist. I find that figure staggering.

 

[sihhi]

Can they ban the freedom and justice party and if they do will the more radical Islamist party's benefit

The more nationalist - radical is the wrong word - Islamist Nur party effectively supported the coup.

 

[sihhi]

Yes he had little if any choice

This is an odd one that the president had no choice, he personally chose to play the game, so he made his choice.
It's an convenient get out for these leaders.
We might aswell say Clegg had no choice but to raise tuition fees, he didn't want to but he had no choice, also Miliband had no choice but to commit to Conservative welfare spending plans, Mandela had no choice but to privatise the new mines, Yeltsin had no choice but to end subsidies bla bla.

 

[1%er]

As we are splitting hairs any political group that wants to impose a moral code and religious law on the population is radical in my book

 

[1%er]

This is an odd one that the president had no choice, he personally chose to play the game, so he made his choice.
It's an convenient get out for these leaders.
We might aswell say Clegg had no choice but to raise tuition fees, he didn't want to but he had no choice, also Miliband had no choice but to commit to Conservative welfare spending plans, Mandela had no choice but to privatise the new mines, Yeltsin had no choice but to end subsidies bla bla.

I think it is called politics

Do you think Osborne had a real choice about making cuts to UK government spending, his real choice was where to make cuts and how quickly he did it.

 

[sihhi]

As we are splitting hairs any political group that wants to impose a moral code and religious law on the population is radical in my book

But they are equally radical - on a par with the Ihwan , not more radical in terms of social morality etc.

 

[1%er]

But they are equally radical - on a par with the Ihwan , not more radical in terms of social morality etc.

I think all Islamist party's are radical, but I believe some would impose it more severely than others, as is the case nowadays in different parts of the Islamic world.

 

[sihhi]

Those 2011 elections you keep quoting had a 60% turnout and the two main Islamist blocs - Brotherhood and Nur scored 37% and 28%, in part as a result of so many independent non-Brotherhood candidates meaning they got ruined by the absence of party lists.

Most importantly, a lot has changed since then most notably the behaviour of the Brotherhood in power and how they got into power.

If 72% of the country was loyal to Morsi staying in power to complete his term against the protests the chain of command would have broken down with the army.

I think it is called politics

Do you think Osborne had a real choice about making cuts to UK government spending, his real choice was how quickly he did it.

Not listening to fifteen million people on the streets, then not listening to a military ultimatum, then playing the victim on state TV by pretending to have shed your blood whilst having your minions shed theirs for you - is also politics. As is mounting a coup - also politics - hence shouldn't be condemned or bemoaned.

 

[1%er]

Those 2011 elections you keep quoting had a 60% turnout and the two main Islamist blocs - Brotherhood and Nur scored 37% and 28%, in part as a result of so many independent non-Brotherhood candidates meaning they got ruined by the absence of party lists.

Most importantly, a lot has changed since then most notably the behaviour of the Brotherhood in power and how they got into power.

If 72% of the country was loyal to Morsi staying in power to complete his term against the protests the chain of command would have broken down with the army.



Not listening to fifteen million people on the streets, then not listening to a military ultimatum, then playing the victim on state TV by pretending to have shed your blood whilst having your minions shed theirs for you - is also politics. As is mounting a coup - also politics - hence shouldn't be condemned or bemoaned.

I though in a democracy, politicians should be removed via the ballot box

The military have no business getting involved in internal politics or setting ultimatums for politicians in a democracy.

 

[sihhi]

I think all Islamist party's are radical, but I believe some would impose it more severely than others, as is the case nowadays in different parts of the Islamic world.

My claim: the Nur/Islamic Bloc was not worse than the Ihwan in that respect.
It repeatedly asserts that it respects all religions rights in Egypt just like the Brotherhood.
It does however - unlike the Brotherhood - demand immediate remilitarisation of the Sinai and ending the peace treaty with Israel - hence more nationalist.

 

[Casually Red]

I am no fan of Islamist or any other religious groups I don't believe that religion should play any part in democratic politics [other than on a personal level], I am also no fan of the sham that is called democracy around the globe.

I am a fan of watching the sophistry from politicians who claim to be democrats, trying to defend the indefensible. I am also a fan of watching the media manipulation of events.

Happily, I don't have a dog in this fight but I am concerned for the poor and workingclass who will end up taking the brunt of the pain.

i dont think you are a fan but I think its a positive for egypt Morsi has been removed, the sooner the better, and there was no one only the military who could remove him without an all out bloodbath. Ive no illusions hell probably be replaced by a different stripe of scum, but one thing egypt really didnt need was the institutionalised sectarian shite he was doing his best to normalise and embed . For all its problems one thing Egyptian society at least paid lip sersvice to was that Nasserite concept of a national consciousness that transcended the confessional . They were still all Egyptians .
Instead under the MB it was the confessional that counted . Theres a very nasty and murderous sub context at play pertaining to Syria . Its being used as an opportunity for sunni demagogues to go on the rhetorical offensive right accross the region and demonise all minorities outside the sunni mainstream . The egyptian MB were playing a big role in that process, sectarianism and hatred were becoming normalised, embedded and institutionalised in egyptian politics . Im sure theres enough historical examples of what happens when this stuff becomes the norm under government approval. I could stomach the islamism, afterall its what they voted for, if it wasnt for the scapegoating of minorities and the stoking up of religious and ethnic hatreds. With at the same time the peoples constitution being torn asunder, which is criminality by an elite.
No good was ever going to come from that and no vote can ever make that politically or morally legitmate in my view.
So whatever comes after Morsi at least theyll still have a concept of egypt being a nation and a society, as opposed to somewhere were sunnis are the majority and theres no place for anyone who isnt . Because thats a major step backwards and if it took a militarys intervention to uphold the nation, well thats the militarys actual job Im afraid .

 

[sihhi]

Off-topic at the start

I though in a democracy, politicians should be removed via the ballot box

In a real democracy, politicians should resign to hand over all resources to popular control without ballot boxes. The state military have no business existing. The working-class base of the military should not be involved in external defence and war and techniques and war games, they should concern themselves with the people and the state of the country. This doesn't mean, of course, that they should do acts like this which will - in the long run - only aid the Islamists.

The military have no business getting involved in internal politics or setting ultimatums for politicians in a democracy.

So is it OK for the PLA to be involved in Chinese politics? Even by your terms, Egypt was not a democracy under Morsi in 2013 any more than Iran was a democracy under Bani Sadr in 1979, although both came via elections. Is Libya a democracy now, after all, its government was elected, is Cote D'Ivoire?

On topic:

The socialist movement in Egypt has no organisation within the army, failing to meet the demands of the adhesion rules of the Communist International, hence it couldn't stop the coup - that's the real problem here. The people could have brought down Mursi or forced his party between a rock and a hard place to overturn the constitution. The generals have screwed it up on purpose, in large part as you describe in order to secure their economic interests/goals which were threatened not by Mursi but by the protests against him.

 

[Casually Red]

I though in a democracy, politicians should be removed via the ballot box

The military have no business getting involved in internal politics or setting ultimatums for politicians in a democracy.

In a democracy its understood the constitution has to be respected and upheld by everyone, including governments, and its the presidents job to be the guarantor of that constitution . Morsi was elected to do that . He instead took a decision not just to ignore but to actively subvert the constitution, which was inherently undemocratic and completely illegal . If he wanted it changed then the ballot box was the place to do that. He chose otherwise . As the constitution is the framework of the nation which safeguards democracy and the peoples rights then the nation itself and the peoples will is being actively subverted . A democracy is more than a ballot box every 5 years .
Morsi was behaving unconstitutionally and was therefore subverting the nations constitution . As he had rigged the rules to ensure there were no checks and balances within the states institutions ,then the only state institution left with the power to hold him to account was the military . Had he not bollocked about other state institutions would have had the power to make him adhere to the contract with the people . Hes a victim of his own despotism and illegality.
If Morsi was subverting the constitution then he was subverting the nation itself and endangering its existence . Nations afterall are people within a territory under a constitutional framework . Given that he was endangering and subverting the nationitself, and that there was no court or panel in the land which could hold him to account then it falls to the military to protect the nation . Which is their job .

 

[sihhi]

Again off-topic: Occasionally, coups and interventions have cut off and demobilised gathering protest movements in all sorts of countries even as they are ostensibly progressive coups against reactionary anti-democratic/civil dictatorship governments - eg 1958 in Pakistan, 1960 in Turkey, 1968 in Peru - there are others. I think Egypt's military intervention now might be a smaller scale version of this.

 

[Poo Flakes]

Those 2011 elections you keep quoting had a 60% turnout and the two main Islamist blocs - Brotherhood and Nur scored 37% and 28%, in part as a result of so many independent non-Brotherhood candidates meaning they got ruined by the absence of party lists.

If the MB and Nur had the same level of support in America, they could change the constitution. The issue about the constitution had more to do with who should have authority over the military. I thought that civilian oversight over the military is a pretty important feature of a democracy.

Most importantly, a lot has changed since then most notably the behaviour of the Brotherhood in power and how they got into power.

If 72% of the country was loyal to Morsi staying in power to complete his term against the protests the chain of command would have broken down with the army.

Not listening to fifteen million people on the streets, then not listening to a military ultimatum, then playing the victim on state TV by pretending to have shed your blood whilst having your minions shed theirs for you - is also politics.

So you have now revised down to fifteen million people from twenty million? Be sure to keep me updated because those figures sound totally legit.

As is mounting a coup - also politics - hence shouldn't be condemned or bemoaned.

By definition, mounting a coup is not politics.

 

[sihhi]

If the MB and Nur had the same level of support in America, they could change the constitution. The issue about the constitution had more to do with who should have authority over the military. I thought that civilian oversight over the military is a pretty important feature of a democracy.

Do we just keep going round with this stuff again and again? Power was granted to the Brotherhood from SCAF with the agreement over military prerogatives remaining.
They played the game to get involved with the military generals, they took their moth-bitten democracy and began turning it not into a conventional competitive open democracy but into a civil dictatorship with even less democracy for their (also civilian) opponents - now they lost.

So you have now revised down to fifteen million people from twenty million? Be sure to keep me updated because those figures sound totally legit.

The figures are what they've been reported at, they were giant protests dwarfing pro-Morsi gatherings. At first I was sceptical of 14 million. Some have reported 20 million, some 15 million, some 14 million, some 10 million - obviously not all at the same time but all there saying erhal on the streets in some fashion. Some have suggested 30 million. What's the point you're making? That it's all a military-stitched plot?

By definition, mounting a coup is not politics.

There were five coups and interventions in Portugal between 1974 and 1976 - none of them were politics according to this perverse definition.

 

[Poo Flakes]

Do we just keep going round with this stuff again and again? Power was granted to the Brotherhood from SCAF with the agreement over military prerogatives remaining.
They played the game to get involved with the military generals, they took their moth-bitten democracy and began turning it not into a conventional competitive open democracy but into a civil dictatorship with even less democracy for their (also civilian) opponents - now they lost.

Well, not sure who has lost. I am not sure what the MB should have done differently, their constitution was even approved in a referendum. They were creating a new conservative elite but that was bound to happen.

The figures are what they've been reported at, they were giant protests dwarfing pro-Morsi gatherings. At first I was sceptical of 14 million. Some have reported 20 million, some 15 million, some 14 million, some 10 million - obviously not all at the same time but all there saying erhal on the streets in some fashion. Some have suggested 30 million. What's the point you're making? That it's all a military-stitched plot?

The Egyptian military have consistently tried to make life difficult for the Muslim Brotherhood and desperately clung to power. They seem to have far less of a mandate from the people than the Muslim Brotherhood, unless of course a quarter of Egypt's population took to the streets.

There were five coups and interventions in Portugal between 1974 and 1976 - none of them were politics according to this perverse definition.

Well, that sounds more like a civil war.

 

[1%er]

When is a coup not a coup?

Foreign Assistance Act 1961 says this:
The United States is required to suspend foreign aid to any country that suffers a military coup. The law, according to its text, “restricts assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.”

The USA congratulated Morsi on his victory so one would assume they believe he is the duly elected head of the Egyptian government.

So who will be the final arbiter as to the question, was/is this a coup?

Should produce some cracking examples of sophistry from people claiming to be democrats

 

[sihhi]

Well, not sure who has lost. I am not sure what the MB should have done differently, their constitution was even approved in a referendum. They were creating a new conservative elite but that was bound to happen.

Good that you reminded me the Brotherhood's constitution was approved in a referendum. I can now rest easy about the nature of the Iranian government - their constitution was also approved in a referendum in October 1979. Excellent news.

The Egyptian military have consistently tried to make life difficult for the Muslim Brotherhood and desperately clung to power. They seem to have far less of a mandate from the people than the Muslim Brotherhood, unless of course a quarter of Egypt's population took to the streets.

The military have clung to power in their domain, but made it fairly easy for the Brotherhood to govern, so long as they didn't go supporting the Syrian Sunni Islamists, sit happily beside endorsing those who describe Shiites as infidels etc. The military went along with the constitutional changes, all the Islamist-minded governors and judges that the Brotherhood imposed.

The military has now taken its chance but it's one the Brotherhood have gifted to them.

Well, that sounds more like a civil war.

No, it's standard post-revolutionary politics, not full civil war.

 

[sihhi]

The USA congratulated Morsi on his victory so one would assume they believe he is the duly elected head of the Egyptian government.

US not only congratulated victory that's a standard thing but their ambassador gave a hint that they would support Morsi's resistance to protestor demands:

http://abcnews.go.com/International...ngry-us-envoys-comments-19455448#.UdW-lzuHuuL

Egyptian anti-government activists denounced the U.S. ambassador in Cairo Friday for a statement in which she criticized street protests as the opposition gears up for mass rallies to demand the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi.

The outrage mounted after Ambassador Anne Patterson said in a speech earlier this week that she is "deeply skeptical" that protests will be fruitful and defended U.S. relations with Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood as necessary because the group is part of the democratically elected Egyptian government.

"Some say that street action will produce better results than elections. To be honest, my government and I are deeply skeptical," she said Tuesday during a seminar organized by a Cairo research center. "Egypt needs stability to get its economic house in order, and more violence on the streets will do little more than add new names to the lists of martyrs."

 

[Poo Flakes]

Good that you reminded me the Brotherhood's constitution was approved in a referendum. I can now rest easy about the nature of the Iranian government - their constitution was also approved in a referendum in October 1979. Excellent news.

I'll assume you are being serious. Better tell those fuckers that voted in it to go fuck themselves I suppose, and anyone who has ever voted in one while we are at it. Better, we can just accuse everyone of being Iranian.

The military have clung to power in their domain, but made it fairly easy for the Brotherhood to govern, so long as they didn't go supporting the Syrian Sunni Islamists, sit happily beside endorsing those who describe Shiites as infidels etc. The military went along with the constitutional changes, all the Islamist-minded governors and judges that the Brotherhood imposed.

So now the military and the Muslim Brotherhood are best buddies?

The military has now taken its chance but it's one the Brotherhood have gifted to them.

To fuck over their best buddies?

 

[sihhi]

I'll assume you are being serious. Better tell those fuckers that voted in it to go fuck themselves I suppose, and anyone who has ever voted in one while we are at it. Better, we can just accuse everyone of being Iranian.

What on earth does this mean? There's a parallel in Iran of Islamist organisation in a post-revolution post-dictator downfall in a large but confessionally mixed Muslim country winning the referendums and elections. Telling people X is what Morsi did and hence why there constitutional referendum met with such a firm boycott.

So now the military and the Muslim Brotherhood are best buddies?

To fuck over their best buddies?

Brotherhood were perfectly fine O.K. from the military POV to provide stability and a climate of normalcy not to impose tensions that might spiral out of control.
They were buddies until they refused to meet with the opposition's demands.

 

[J Ed]

one reason im not all that concerned is down to Morsi and the MBs complete lack of concern at the recent disgraceful mob lynching of shia pilgrims, something that despite causing deep concern in the region he never even bothered mentioning in a presidential address on the internal state of egypt just a few days later . Which gave the distinct impression that this type of intolerant barbarism was something that didnt concern him and shouldnt concern egyptians . Or indeed anyone else. So its not just their political stance that makes me have no sympathy, its their tolerance and encouragement, if not active collusion in, sectarian massacres.

The MB and Morsi encouraged and did nothing to prevent anti-Christian violence as well.

 

[Poo Flakes]

Sihhi, don't get me wrong - very few elections/referendums are free and fair. I am just not sure what the MB could have done to be provided with a bigger popular mandate. They certainly had one.

I am sure you will be able to explain why the military arrested several workers in media organisations and MB commissars. Additionally, Egyptian politics over the last year has been nothing but MB and the military posturing against each other. We'll see if large swathes of the Egyptian lower classes become less militant / radicalised as a result of all of this.

 

[free spirit]

Sihhi, don't get me wrong - very few elections/referendums are free and fair. I am just not sure what the MB could have done to be provided with a bigger popular mandate. They certainly had one.

I am sure you will be able to explain why the military arrested several workers in media organisations and MB commissars. Additionally, Egyptian politics over the last year has been nothing but MB and the military posturing against each other. We'll see if large swathes of the Egyptian lower classes become less militant / radicalised as a result of all of this.

how did they have a mandate for what they were doing?

They got 25% in the initial election, vs slightly under 50% for the 3 other main none MB, and none Mubarack era candidates. It was a flawed system that allowed that 50% of votes to end up having no candidate to vote for in the final run off, so having to choose between a representative of the old regime they'd just had a revolution against, or the muslim brotherhood who basically got elected by promising to take on board their views - instead of which they've apparently acted as if they had a legitimate mandate for their own policies alone. They never had that mandate.

 

[elbows]

Additionally, Egyptian politics over the last year has been nothing but MB and the military posturing against each other.

Thats not really true. But I wouldn't characterise them as buddies either. I expect it was a somewhat uneasy marriage of convenience, but many of the twists and turns were not so visible in public until recent weeks.

For example the first really strong public comments by al-Sisi did not come till around June 23rd:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57590623/egypts-army-delivers-an-ominous-warning/

But as that article mentions towards the end, he had been hinting his displeasure for a while though I haven't found good examples of this myself just yet. I do not rule out the possibility that the army long since embarked on a strategy of giving the MB enough rope to hang themselves, though I cannot say whether this started from the moment Morsi won the presidential election or only later once his style of government and weaknesses became obvious.