Egypt anti-government protests grow

[elbows]

The 20 million figure comes from the fact that 22,134,460 signatures were collected by Tamarrod even though it had as a goal 15 million at the start. Plus aerial shots of respective crowds. Some pro-Morsi were claiming 4 million, but a map which I can't find had their respective areas and the anti-Morsi crowds cover well over five times the area of the Morsi crowds.

I don't think the exact numbers really matter. But the 22 million signatures thing is a claim, not a proven fact. And the crowds of protests certainly were nothing like as large as that, not that anyone should expect them to be. Cairo has a population of just over 9 million, with something like another 10 million outside the main city limits, but I don't think we'd ever expect the vast bulk of them to be on the streets, protesting at the same time.

Of course it's not a grassroots coup the general has been on the television how on earth can you think it's an officer coup?

It was still a military coup though, regardless of how many people supported it. They could not have done like this without the backdrop of protests, but its still a bit early to judge quite what the full spectrum of their intentions are.

The political scene for the new version of the transition is certainly different now: More competent army statements than before, more opposition figures on board, less emphasis on fears of regime remnants getting back in, MB in an uncertain position.

 

[Poo Flakes]

The 20 million figure comes from the fact that 22,134,460 signatures were collected by Tamarrod even though it had as a goal 15 million at the start. Plus aerial shots of respective crowds. Some pro-Morsi were claiming 4 million, but a map which I can't find had their respective areas and the anti-Morsi crowds cover well over five times the area of the Morsi crowds.

Acknowledge their popularity? Has anyone denied they are popular with their base alone?

Of course it's not a grassroots coup the general has been on the television how on earth can you think it's an officer coup?

Not even the military is claiming 20 million.

A military source told Reuters that as many as 14 million people in the country of 84 million took part in the demonstrations. There was no independent way of verifying that estimate, though the armed forces used helicopters to monitor the crowds.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/30/mohamed-morsi-egypt-protests

These numbers are obviously cooked.

 

[sihhi]

Well traditional wisdom would be that arab nationalism is certainly one of the forces that could be tapped into to bring something resembling unity to Egypt. And at almost every turn we've seen how many sides can start cheering the military even when the military agenda actually makes it absurd to do so.

However the whole arab nationalism thing has some obvious limitations given how hollow it really is, since any real radical policies born of such roots would be quite at odds with what the US and other 'partners' actually want from Egypt. Not to mention the incompatibility of left-leaning neo-nasserists economic policy with the prevailing global economic ideologies of today. So we have ElBaradei on stage rather than someone like Sabahi.

Hamdeen Sabahi is still around but he wouldn't have wanted the military to put him on TV. He welcomed the military ultimatum, but I think would generally be opposed to any lengthened military coup or clampdown, he was very opposed to military reserving powers in the 2011 settlement.

Sabahi from six weeks ago:

"for example, we recall the anti-democratic Constitutional Declaration, and the casualties outside al-Ittihadiya palace. Such incidents naturally undermine Mursi’s legitimacy. Mursi has legal legitimacy, which is under criticism, but his political legitimacy collapsed with the Constitutional Declaration, and his moral legitimacy too when Egyptians lost their lives. In other words, he is ruling with debatable legal legitimacy, and inexistent political and moral legitimacy. But the issue is not only about legitimacy or otherwise. No matter how legitimate, a ruler who is unable to meet the demands of the people should also be resisted. The issue is therefore about how to accomplish that."

 

[teqniq]

Anyone who thinks the recent absence of the police on the streets is some kind of solidarity with the revolution or oversight on their part is having a laugh:

ORHamilton: Staff of al rahma channel in media city being arrested. Masses of police and several personnel carriers here.

ORHamilton: Officer overheard asking if "all the names on the list" are now in the police truck.

 

[Casually Red]

Well traditional wisdom would be that arab nationalism is certainly one of the forces that could be tapped into to bring something resembling unity to Egypt. And at almost every turn we've seen how many sides can start cheering the military even when the military agenda actually makes it absurd to do so.

However the whole arab nationalism thing has some obvious limitations given how hollow it really is, since any real radical policies born of such roots would be quite at odds with what the US and other 'partners' actually want from Egypt. Not to mention the incompatibility of left-leaning neo-nasserists economic policy with the prevailing global economic ideologies of today. So we have ElBaradei on stage rather than someone like Sabahi.

with the US tap currently switched off itd be interesting to see the Russian take on their former clients position . Its clear that its the dependence on the USA which has a fundamental effect on Egypts instability. Its the underlying problem to a great extent, inhibiting the policies and programmes that could ensure national stability and unity .

 

[sihhi]

The idea that the 22 million signatures is an outright lie is also a claim of government propaganda. Each petition-signer has apparently given their unique citizenship card number, thumb print and address beside a name.

Not even the military is claiming 20 million.

These numbers are obviously cooked.

That's what I thought when I posted that Reuters report up the thread but communication with people seems to back up the idea of at least 14 million across hundreds of towns and cities including Muslim Brotherhood heartlands.

 

[sihhi]

It was still a military coup though, regardless of how many people supported it. They could not have done like this without the backdrop of protests, but its still a bit early to judge quite what the full spectrum of their intentions are.

The coup was anti-democratic act - it didn't need to happen and shouldn't have happened on a moral level. It was done to avoid the millions in the squares spinning out of control - with a very short ultimatum.
However the fact that some/many protestor people supported it and are celebrating -shouldn't detract from the wholly correct attitude of protests calling for Morsi's resignation, of their brave and resolute efforts against physical building targets.

 

[Poo Flakes]

However the fact that some/many protestor people supported it and are celebrating -shouldn't detract from the wholly correct attitude of protests calling for Morsi's resignation, of their brave and resolute efforts against physical building targets.

Brave? They clearly had the support of the military.

 

[treelover]

Anyone who thinks the recent absence of the police on the streets is some kind of solidarity with the revolution or oversight on their part is having a laugh:

can I ask what they are being arrested under, what crimes have they committed?, for all its spectacle and popular sentiment this seems like an old fashioned power grab with all its intended and unintended consequences.

 

[elbows]

with the US tap currently switched off itd be interesting to see the Russian take on their former clients position . Its clear that its the dependence on the USA which has a fundamental effect on Egypts instability. Its the underlying problem to a great extent, inhibiting the policies and programmes that could ensure national stability and unity .

At this stage I'll have to assume that the US are just pretending to turn off the tap and that things will remain normal on that front once a non-military branded transitional group is formalised.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The political scene for the new version of the transition is certainly different now: More competent army statements than before, more opposition figures on board, less emphasis on fears of regime remnants getting back in, MB in an uncertain position.

I can see some kind of 'institutionalised revolution' being the end game of this, somewhat reminiscent of the Mexican Revolution. The context is rather different and there is no civil war as such, but the waves of various factions trying and failing to establish order after the old dictator has been removed are similar. In the end, something favouring the capitalist classes won out in Mexico, but something that could present itself convincingly as a break with the Diaz regime. Egypt appears to be moving in this direction.

 

[teqniq]

can I ask what they are being arrested under, what crimes have they committed?, for all its spectacle and popular sentiment this seems like an old fashioned power grab with all its intended and unintended consequences.

Ask away I have no more idea than you. Though it might be a good idea to recall that at the time of the removal of Mubarak, the army made absolutely sure that the main T.V. station in Cairo was heavily protected at all times. The conclusion to draw from this imo is: control the media, control the people. That is applicable anywhere.

 

[sihhi]

Mostly agree, though they could probably have done a bit more to back him up at some points. The idea of Mubaraks son taking over was not too popular in some military circles but their stance is also likely to be heavily influenced by what the US wants considering the amount of military funding that comes from the US.

They have some autonomy though. Your point misses out they can decide to do things on their own basis and explain it later. The US does not want Egypt as an opponent-competitor, given that it is opposing Iran.

There were all sorts of state elements that were not exactly overjoyed about having a MB president and I'm pretty sure the military could have done more to protect the MB if they wanted to.

This is about face: why didn't the army defend the protestors killed by Brotherhood police
over the past year? Why did the army intervene to stop Islamists attacking and ransacking Shiite homes (killing four eventually) in Abu Mussalam?
What does state elements mean? What's the suggestion here? That the Brotherhood President was forced out of office by people who don't like beards - that these people have some kind of conspiracy power to control Egyptian society to make the first bearded president look bad?

Well its not the first time they have withdrawn, with both the lack of reform and ineffectiveness of this security force having been an outstanding feature for years now. And their actions or inactions usually spawn a lot of theories. So I cannot really take their actions this time as concrete proof of anything. But coupled with the last point I still think the Egyptian state, usually via the military, has been quite capable of protecting locations when it really wants to.

No it's not always able to protect locations, there's been an unprecented wave of popular gatherings and events over the period since 25 Jan 2011 which sometimes develop too quickly leaving police or riot police unable to cope.

It is certainly true that they did not seem to enjoy the period when they were overtly in control without any political cover. But they acted pretty quickly this time, I think a variety of agendas came into play and they made the most of this opportunity. It is not clear to me whether any concessions from Morsi would have been enough to prevent these events even if he had been inclined to make them, especially as the one thing the opposition parties and protest movements have been consistently good at is refusing to compromise.

What does this mean? Morsi taking a real measure instead of repeating he was legitimate/political legitimacy 74 (seventy four) times in his speech last night could have achieved something, but he didn't.

It is interesting to see the likes of ElBaradei dealing productively with the military this time, when in the past he held out against any attempts they made to co-opt him into the process.

El Baradei himself is a spineless liberal against the military, as Morsi was until about 3 days ago and the ultimatum. Two hypocrite sides unable to unite against the military pole.

whether the military make use of this situation, under the banner of an appeal for unity, to crack down against other aspects of a broader struggle that has made Egypt so ungovernable since Mubarak.

My guess: this is likely to happen - an attempted depoliticisation of the civil service, perhaps new strike bans, cool offs in the interim period.

 

[elbows]

Hamdeen Sabahi is still around but he wouldn't have wanted the military to put him on TV. He welcomed the military ultimatum, but I think would generally be opposed to any lengthened military coup or clampdown, he was very opposed to military reserving powers in the 2011 settlement.

So was El-Baradei. Anyway Sabahi's group was one of the ones that agreed recently to have El-Baradei as main opposition spokesman/representative for now, I guess Sabahi is a bit too contentious for that role. How long this level of unity from all these disparate political groups remains intact is an interesting question, as is exactly what they have been promised by the military (clearly something, but perhaps as simple as what the transitional plan says publicly).

Either way if the MB stuff can be contained then the upcoming political situation seems to resemble a state of affairs that is far more to the state & armies liking than all the botched situations of the past. MB weakened, the consequences of the country falling apart having been hinted at rather vividly, opposition dealing with the military, less fears about Mubarak regime remnants, the horrors of the police, the fate of Mubarak etc. Unclear whether this was by accident or design, how much is simply down to al-Sisi being far more competent than the silly old farts that used to fill that role, whether the MB were deliberately given enough rope to hang themselves. But attempts to define recent events as being either a continuation of the revolution or a counter-revolution unlikely to do the situation justice, especially as army power has remained fairly constant throughout.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

with the US tap currently switched off itd be interesting to see the Russian take on their former clients position . Its clear that its the dependence on the USA which has a fundamental effect on Egypts instability. Its the underlying problem to a great extent, inhibiting the policies and programmes that could ensure national stability and unity .

I agree that the dependence on the US is arresting any chance of development. But that US tap will be switched back on, no doubt. The military wants it more than anyone, after all. It funds them. Egypt has some leverage in the relationship - the US gives its military support for a reason.

 

[sihhi]

Brave? They clearly had the support of the military.

MB snipers are firing at them, they fight back, whatever the external circumstances - brave.
Different scenario: but brave like unveiled Afghan women nurses standing firm against the mojaheddin (even though they clearly had the support of the Red Army military).

 

[sihhi]

But attempts to define recent events as being either a continuation of the revolution or a counter-revolution unlikely to do the situation justice, especially as army power has remained fairly constant throughout.

Recent events meaning the Jun 30 protests (not the military coup of tonight) then what are they if not revolution or counter-revolution?

 

[audiotech]

I have some doubts as to whether the "US tap" has been turned off just yet?

 

[elbows]

This is about face: why didn't the army defend the protestors killed by Brotherhood police
over the past year? Why did the army intervene to stop Islamists attacking and ransacking Shiite homes (killing four eventually) in Abu Mussalam?
What does state elements mean? What's the suggestion here? That the Brotherhood President was forced out of office by people who don't like beards - that these people have some kind of conspiracy power to control Egyptian society to make the first bearded president look bad?

We are not privy to the precise twists and turns in the relationship between the MB and the army. So it is hard to iron out all contradictions and offer simple explanations.

But we could probably hazard a guess that Morsi did not deliver results to the satisfaction of either those on the street or the military. There are some theories about specific things Morsi might have done quite recently that upset the military, but I am ill equipped to judge the validity of these theories.

No it's not always able to protect locations, there's been an unprecented wave of popular gatherings and events over the period since 25 Jan 2011 which sometimes develop too quickly leaving police or riot police unable to cope.

The police were often useless but on occasions it was a deliberate decision to withdraw. And the military never had trouble protecting key state institutions, e.g. back when there was anger against state TV the state TV building was protected easily. When the military wanted to clear Tahrir square, they did so, etc.

What does this mean? Morsi taking a real measure instead of repeating he was legitimate/political legitimacy 74 (seventy four) times in his speech last night could have achieved something, but he didn't.

Other than resigning there was no measure he could have taken at that stage that the opposition would have welcomed. Earlier on there is much he could have done to avoid his demise, but his error with the constitution towards the end of last year was probably a point of no return as far as much of the opposition were concerned.

El Baradei himself is a spineless liberal against the military, as Morsi was until about 3 days ago and the ultimatum. Two hypocrite sides unable to unite against the military pole.

The MB were weak-willed against the state and the military at all stages of the uprising against Mubarak, and many of the young MB members who joined protests initially did so against the will of the organisation. Some here were so suspicious of the MB at that stage that they expected the MB to be used by the state at any moment to crush the true revolution. But it didn't exactly pan out like that at the time.

As for El-Baradei, or el-blah-blah as we disparagingly referred to him for a time when his weak attempts to be a figurehead for the revolution came to little, his rhetoric against the military after Mubarak was deposed, and refusal to be co-opted into the process was probably stronger than we might have expected. But now it is quite possible that he will revert to type and end up fulfilling the sort of 'moderate, liberal, acceptable to the global community' role that we might have expected from him during the first transition before it became clear that it wasn't going to be that simple a stage-managed show. This time it might be.

 

[sihhi]

Anyone who thinks the recent absence of the police on the streets is some kind of solidarity with the revolution or oversight on their part is having a laugh:

Police are split between two directions in revolutionary/post-revolutionary upheavals.
Many police chiefs did not want to get involved in policing rallies pro or anti Morsi for fear of breaking up the police unity.
Some police - but not all - are very loyal to the military. It's a divided police force, it happens.

 

[sihhi]

Anyway according to twitter the main church in Al Minya, capital of the province, has been attacked by pro-Morsi/Islamists. As have shops of anti-Morsi supporters and an attempted raid of a Coptic bank in the city, it's quite a Morsi stronghold. Marsa Matruh has also seen shots fired beatings against ordinary anti-Morsi citizens.
So much for Islamist claims against the military.

 

[sihhi]

The police were often useless but on occasions it was a deliberate decision to withdraw. And the military never had trouble protecting key state institutions, e.g. back when there was anger against state TV the state TV building was protected easily.

Yes but the key point is the military - as far as I am aware - were never called by the civil authorities to reinforce place X or Y.

It's like complaining that the military did nothing to stop the 3 people killed in incidents during the riots of August 2011. They weren't asked to.

 

[elbows]

Recent events meaning the Jun 30 protests (not the military coup of tonight) then what are they if not revolution or counter-revolution?

I didn't find this question easy to answer in 2011 either. Back then I could certainly say there was an uprising, a leader was deposed, a political party died, familial succession plans were broken, and state power that stems from people cowering in fear was broken. But the extent to which the military are part of the state and economy, and the lack of real reforms made it kind of hard to see it as a full revolution. And now some of the few tokens that people did get, such as a variety of elections and a new constitution, have been undone. Perhaps they will get something slightly better as a replacement for these failed gestures, perhaps some revolutionary aims will be achieved even if certain things that could be seen as counter-revolutionary also occur. Absent an ultimate prize of a shift in military & other powers grip on the country, at a minimum some kind of genuine reform of something beyond the constitutional & election sphere is necessary in my opinion. For example some rights in a new constitution that are then properly reflected with genuine reform of the state security apparatus would at least give the impression of something tangible having been gained via these struggles.

 

[elbows]

Yes but the key point is the military - as far as I am aware - were never called by the civil authorities to reinforce place X or Y.

It's like complaining that the military did nothing to stop the 3 people killed in incidents during the riots of August 2011. They weren't asked to.

They may well not have been asked, we don't know for sure. They may have been asked to help and refused for all we know. And the military clearly aren't the only part of the state that wasn't exactly falling over itself to do Morsi's bidding at all times, or take any risks to protect or support the MB. Plus the civil authorities didn't ask the military to get rid of Morsi but that didn't stop them acting.

Anyway I wouldn't be surprised if some of my points on this front are gibberish because really whenever the army in Egypt come out onto the streets the reaction tends to defy traditional wisdom and the real politics of the situation. For example whether or not it was Mubarak himself that ordered them into Cairo on that day in 2011, they were treated as liberators by a good chunk of the protesters, which really turns some of the traditional dynamics of those sorts of situations on their head. Even when they ultimately still ended up performing a policing role and arresting and abusing people, burning tents and stamping on people.

 

[elbows]

It is quite interesting to see that the closure of Islamist TV stations and arrests are being condemned. Because over the years and especially recently, I have noticed a tendency of many to almost completely ignore deaths of MB members. If MB people start shooting protesters we seem to hear about it much more than when, as apparently happened at times in recent days, armed protesters shoot them. I do not suggest that their political stance deserves any sympathy, but I do find this lop-sidedness to be a concern.

 

[audiotech]

'Unedited version' of the previous vid posted:

 

[Divisive Cotton]

This article on the Guardian and all the comments underneath it made me mad: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/03/egypt-coup-ruinous-army

But you can't overthrow a democratically elected government! These people are naive and stupid!

"Egypt is a good example of the unspoken truth that every revolution is a road to nowhere. "

Fucking liberals

 

[Poo Flakes]

I take it most folk on here have full confidence in the Egyptian army to create a secular democracy that we can all be proud of because it has said that it has the full support of 65 billion Egyptians?

 

[barney_pig]

.. democracy for a while but only if the army agrees?

Seems a pretty accurate description of democracy everywhere.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I take it most folk on here have full confidence in the Egyptian army to create a secular democracy that we can all be proud of because it has said that it has the full support of 65 billion Egyptians?

Have you actually read any of the content of this thread? Nobody on here has any faith in the Egyptian army to provide justice, bread, freedom