Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
They'll reorganise but under a different name. Other than that I don't know what political conclusions they'll draw from the past 12 months
Egypt anti-government protests grow
- Thread starter stuff_it
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agricola
a genuine importer of owls
I doubt it, if there is another election anytime soon it will inevitably end up being about these events.
coley
Well-Known Member
But surely there is a big chance that the MB would morph back into an active insurgency ( with a degree of political legitimacy) if they are denied political representation?
bolshiebhoy
socialism leinster drink
Rev Socs Hossam Hamalawy saying on FB that Morsi has tried to post videos on YouTube twice in last few minutes and twice had them deleted almost immediately. Presumably by Sisi's boys.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
That is probably a lot more palatable to the Army than the alternative - the MB winning an election again, a mandate which would more than legitimize the MB getting rid of anyone and everyone associated with this coup.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
To wait for an election without mass action would mean four more years for Morsi and the Brotherhood to institute their civil authoritarianism - more purges in the civil service and media, more jailings, more sectarian murders, a new breed of cleric to bless the new regime of segregated primary schooling, more restrictions on the wrong kind of woman etc.
It's like saying Iranians shouldn't have gone for action against the elected Bani-Sadr presidency (by a massive margin) in 1980 because there was a threat of a coup - which there were plans and activities for.
You try and resist both poles of illegitimate power - presidential and military. If a coup happens you don't stop, but you also don't reign yourself in because someone is else coup-plotting with you as their show-people.
It's like saying Iranians shouldn't have gone for action against the elected Bani-Sadr presidency (by a massive margin) in 1980 because there was a threat of a coup - which there were plans and activities for.
You try and resist both poles of illegitimate power - presidential and military. If a coup happens you don't stop, but you also don't reign yourself in because someone is else coup-plotting with you as their show-people.
bolshiebhoy
socialism leinster drink
Bits might but the MB is a huge coalition many parts of which played an admirable part in 2011. The liberals will do their best to alienate all Islamists but the left need to win over working class believers who arent automatic suicide bomb fodder. Sharia means very different things to a MB factory owner and a MB worker.
I'm not sure the Muslim Brotherhood would've been prepared to give up power in any future democratic election if they'd been able to entrench themselves over a full term in office. I don't think they're democrats, I think they were after hegemony. They didn't make any attempt at being pluralistic when they were in office, they behaved like autocrats right from the start, even though they only won by the skin of their teeth anyway.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah, although the MB have come a long way since those days and may find it something of a challenge to morph back in that direction. For example long before their man got to be president they were a part of the establishment, with some well-to-do backers which earnt them the nickname 'brothers of the 1%' in some quarters.
I suppose the military will be content to simply let them become somewhat more marginalised and bitter rather than try to utterly crush them, so long as there are no mass shows of force by MB people in the days head. Given that the MB in recent times have not been used to ending up on this side of the military, I suppose they might end up in a state of virtual paralysis in the wake of recent events, at least for a while till they can figure out a way forwards.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
The Brotherhood won't be denied political representation - the elections - my guess - will happen sooner rather than later. I think the army is confident that the Brotherhood won't win (and so expose it to the verge of war with Ethiopia over natural resources esp water, or stick force Egypt's nose into Syria-Lebanon)
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Not sure what's being suggested but there's no way they can be "utterly crushed" by the military without causing some kind of internal crisis within the conscript section of the army.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Should anyone care?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well I would certainly agree that the main restraint against army violence on a large scale over recent years has been that if they kill too many people they run the risk of losing the power of the whole 'army and people are as one hand' stuff.
However this doesn't stop them killing, injuring or arresting some people. It doesn't seem to have stopped them taking MB TV channels off their air. And they don't need to storm MB locations themselves when they can simply withdraw protection from those institutions and let crowds do the rest, as happened in recent days. And it hasn't stopped them mounting a coup against a MB president.
Combustible
Well-Known Member
If the Brotherhood don't think they can win the subsequent election, isn't there a good chance they will boycott the elections and maintain that Morsi is still the legitimate president? It seems a better option then giving their defeat the democratic stamp of the approval. I'm fairly sure they boycotted some under Mubarak.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Any genuine reasons for optimism here (short-term at least)? Whoever wins the next election will be even more tightly controlled by the military, I would think. Best scenario I can think of is for someone largely useless to be elected and for little to change for the poor but widespread violence to be avoided. Can anything better than that be realistically hoped for?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Morsi's largely useless littlebabyjesus
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
The police "withdrew protection" when faced with a determined population - not the army, the army were in their barracks they only properly came out today in the afternoon.
MB TV channels can be taken off air by just a handful of officers - utterly crushing needs lots of people because of ongoing support for the MB.
The army are 3X more likely to kill, injure or arrest the tiny sets of socialists than they are the MB. The army mounted the coup on the pretext of rescuing civil peace and happiness in Egypt - that's what the soldier on the ground is likely convinced of even if they have Islamist family or Islamist leanings. The closure of the MB channels will be justified on account of their spreading false news - I disagree with it but temporary closure against provocation will be the mainstay of the army message over the channels.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well a great problem with the timing of the arab springs as they relate to greater hope for the poor is that the medicine prescribed for dealing with the global financial crisis is even more of the same neo-liberalism, privatisations, etc. This affects most countries but where instability as a result of uprisings has further eroded the economy, and where fuel etc subsidies have been the norm but are now targeted for removal, the prospects for the poor are even worse. So in countries that have only just overthrown a symbol of past injustices, the gulf between hopes and expectations and what is likely without genuine, radical change on a global level is even broader.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think you might have the real power structure at the moment the wrong way round. Any new government will be in power because of the current army leadership's actions against the MB. They will be beholden to them, most likely.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
How much do you think they chose that path, and how much was it chosen for them? Seems to me that Morsi, until recently at least, was going great lengths to accommodate the wishes of the military.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure that accurately reflects what has happened, though it is hard to establish much with certainty. The army could have protected the MB places if they had wanted to. The police didn't just withdraw when confronted by masses of people, there were some suggestions that they deliberately decided not to protect those buildings ahead of time, and some security elements were even part of the protests.
I doubt this coup was cooked up in just a couple of days, it seems possible that much was planned and that various different parts of the state failing to come to the aid of the MB at different moments was very much a part of it. Just as some feel that the army at least partially facilitated the removal of Mubarak and made use of the masses when it suited them, so the same sort of thing is even more possible this time around.
As for whether the army will feel the need to crush the MB in a far bloodier manner, its not clear to me quite how many MB supporters are actually prepared to resist the military when push comes to shove.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its always been hard to determine quite how much power the MB really had in office. But the question of support for neoliberalism is somewhat easier to determine because they chose that path a long time ago, brothers of the 1% like I said earlier, and this wasn't something that started only in the post-Mubarak era.
1%er
Well-Known Member
About 72% of the Egyptian people voted for Islamist party's in the elections for parliament.
It is interesting to see, so called, political commentators ignoring this 72% and only claiming that the President doesn't have a real mandate, "he only won because the opposition was split"
When you listen to these wankers, close your eyes and imagine they are talking about the governments of the UK or the USA and you'll see just how "undemocratic" they sound
The bastardization of democracy.
It is interesting to see, so called, political commentators ignoring this 72% and only claiming that the President doesn't have a real mandate, "he only won because the opposition was split"
When you listen to these wankers, close your eyes and imagine they are talking about the governments of the UK or the USA and you'll see just how "undemocratic" they sound
The bastardization of democracy.
elbows
Well-Known Member
That move on its own does nothing to diminish the power of the military. Morsi retired the old military leaders when he took office, and appointed al-Sisi, look how much good that did him!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
No they didn't.
bolshiebhoy
socialism leinster drink
Sensibly many of the left and secular revolutionaries are already speaking out against state repression of the MB, including the arrest of all the staff at Misr 25. Managing to celebrate Morsi's demise while defending grassroots Islamists against SCAF is gonna be a tricky line to walk but has to be done.
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