Egypt anti-government protests grow

[Poo Flakes]

I am not going to become some kind of oracle for what working-class Egyptians should do win the rural base of the Brotherhood from them.

So why bother commenting on it? That is clearly the most pressing issue in Egypt.

 

[sihhi]

So why bother commenting on it? That is clearly the most pressing issue in Egypt.

Earlier you said fighting austerity and the Brotherhood-imposed IMF program was the main issue for them.

You push so re: bothering to comment - the same could be asked of your endless non-comments about 'democracy'.

 

[Poo Flakes]

Earlier you said fighting austerity and the Brotherhood-imposed IMF program was the main issue for them.

You push so re: bothering to comment - the same could be asked of your endless non-comments about 'democracy'.

Pfft.... I never said anything about the IMF.

 

[butchersapron]

Pfft.... I never said anything about the IMF.

Why not?

 

[Poo Flakes]

Why not?

 

[butchersapron]

Cheers. Up democracy and all that.

 

[sihhi]

Pfft.... I never said anything about the IMF.

I apologise it was someone else's posts.

But the point still makes sense. You believe the working-class should do the measure of sweeping up w/c rural Islamists away from the Brotherhood, someone else thinks resisting austerity is the most important thing because the coup has come about so as to better impose that austerity (implicitly that the key people to win over are Tamarrod supporters who will be inclined to follow the army's pronouncements).
What now - who chooses the right course to emit to Egypt?

 

[Poo Flakes]

Dunno, let El Baradei sort it out. I like him, he is a good man. A gooooooooooooooooooooooood man.

 

[elbows]

I'm sceptical of bits of this account esp about the police , which seems very divided it was divided in Pakistan in 1977 too.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/morsi-final-days-egypt-president

Not too sure why you are skeptical of this account. I suppose we might expect some low level police to support the MB, but what actually evidence is there that a sizeable number of them were prepared to lift a finger to help Morsi stay in power? And even if some on the ground were, what Morsi would have been looking for was support at least slightly higher up the chain of police command. But in fact as far as we can tell the interior ministry screwed him almost as much as the army did, which is partly why I disagreed with you the other day about how much of a shit any part of state security gave in regard to protecting important MB buildings some days back.

23rd of June is certainly no surprise as I posted about that date last night, it was when al-Sisi made strong public hints about what may follow.

 

[sihhi]

- more and more when it pings with your user Poo Flakes, something incomprehnsible comes up.

 

[elbows]

Military taking a camera off CNN during a broadcast:

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2...7/05/intl-cairo-wedeman-camera-taken.cnn.html

 

[sihhi]

Not too sure why you are skeptical of this account. I suppose we might expect some low level police to support the MB, but what actually evidence is there that a sizeable number of them were prepared to lift a finger to help Morsi stay in power? And even if some on the ground were, what Morsi would have been looking for was support at least slightly higher up the chain of police command. But in fact as far as we can tell the interior ministry screwed him almost as much as the army did, which is partly why I disagreed with you the other day about how much of a shit any part of state security gave in regard to protecting important MB buildings some days back.

I don't want to dismiss this completely but the police varies a lot from area to area. In central Cairo's sector it is or has become anti-MB. It was pretty rock solid pro-government during protests against the MB back last November.
Whilst in Alexandria and Port Said there are reports of police doing nothing as MB smash close-to-their-neighbourhoods opposition targets.
Police apparently did nothing and just separated did not arrest when MB people attacked family members in a hospital with injured of both sides in Alexandria several days earlier.

 

[sihhi]

Google machine translated from Al Ahram:

"3 corpses new charred Copts area Dabayaa, having ignited the parents flames of their homes, against the backdrop of killing of a young Muslim man at dawn on Friday, as renewed clashes on the same day and the parents burn new homes for Copts. were clashes erupted between Muslims and Copts area Nag Hassan village Dabayaa the western province of Luxor resulted in the burning of 9 houses belonging to Copts, in the wake of an incident murder of a Muslim at the hands of 4 Copts."

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/News/369330.aspx

3 Christians killed.

What often happens in places like Turkey and Algeria around the time of coups is the military are blamed for causing these deaths.
Obviously the military coup didn't meet the burden placed on it and shouldn't have happened, but this stuff can just get lost as minor skirmishes, ongoing sectarian tension etc.

 

[elbows]

The NSF/'rebels' have come out with a statement late Friday that I consider to be a disgrace. Tell me if I've gone wonky in the head but to me it smells more like the sort of shit peddled by the army & the regime during the end of the Mubarak era than the rebellion against him.

Egypt’s Rebel campaign released a statement on Friday calling on Egyptians to converge on the squares and main streets of Egypt to protect the popular legitimacy and protect the revolution’s gains.
"The Egyptian people will not hesitate to protect their revolutionary legitimacy that has reflected the people’s will against the tyrants who do not want stability in Egypt," read the statement. The Rebel statement also warned against "foreign powers" that attempt to divide Egypt.

"We affirm that there are clear attempts to smear our glorious revolution, attempts that seek to portray the people’s will as a military coup, which may lead to intervention by foreign forces in Egypt’s internal matters and which we won’t accept," read the statement.
Following the removal of Mohamed Morsi from the presidency, as demanded by millions on the street, a number of foreign states and entities accused the move of being a "coup d’etat."
The National Salvation Front (NSF), Egypt's main opposition bloc, called on people to take to the streets for what he described as the Muslim Brotherhood's plot to "portray the situation as if there is a fight over legitimacy and pave the way for foreign intervention, like that which took place in Libya and Syria"

"The Egyptian people should defend the legitimacy of the people and its will to end the oppressive rule. They need to support the democratic transition that started with the statement read out by the armed forces in response to the people's will to start a transition period guided by a civil institution that reflects all forces. The people need to aid the armed forces to guard this achievement."

"We will not accept any foreign intervention in our internal affairs. We would sacrifice our souls for our freedom and that of our children."

The NSF called on all Egyptians to take to the streets to protest against what the statement described as the "counter-revolution."

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...el,-NSF-urge-protesters-to-protect-revol.aspx

So they stooped so low as to to raise the spectre of foreign intervention, and are trying to pretend they stand against counter-revolution when they may actually be facilitating it. Oh dear.

 

[butchersapron]

The people who ain't behind either need to be making alliances tonight. From our lot that's as best they can do overnight. Or at least not cut off roads into this possible pro-military assemblement. There's space to make sure that not everyone dies for this fake war.

 

[elbows]

I also consider that '22 million person petition' to be a sort of twist of the colour revolution model. But instead of trying to undermine the legitimacy of elections, they had their own pseudo-election in the form of the petition. I say this because of the lengths they went to to make their petition appear to be equivalent of an election, even claiming that they checked peoples names against electoral rolls.

None of this makes me take the MB side or reject all opposition groups outright, it simply reflects the ways my nostrils have twitched in recent days.

 

[elbows]

The people who ain't behind either need to be making alliances tonight. From our lot that's as best they can do overnight. Or at least not cut off roads into this possible pro-military assemblement. There's space to make sure that not everyone dies for this fake war.

Let us know if you find any good sources of hope online, in regards any groups who have not fallen into the trap this rebooted version of divide and conquer has laid.

 

[elbows]

Apologies if these words from el-blah blah the other day already got a mention in this thread, lost track a bit.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/w...f-egypts-president.html?src=ISMR_AP_LO_MST_FB

Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Prize-winning diplomat and Egypt’s most prominent liberal, said Thursday that he had worked hard to convince Western powers of what he called the necessity of forcibly ousting President Mohamed Morsi, contending that Mr. Morsi had bungled the country’s transition to an inclusive democracy.

“The security people obviously are worried — there was an earthquake and we have to make sure that the tremors are predicted and controlled,” he said.
“They are taking some precautionary measures to avoid violence; well, this is something that I guess they have to do as a security measure,” he said. “But nobody should be detained or arrested in anticipation unless there is a clear accusation, and it has to be investigated by the attorney general and settled in a court.”

The Mubarak appointee, Abdel Meguid Mahmoud, spent years in office prosecuting Islamists. But Mr. ElBaradei said the generals had assured him that this time would be different because they intended to operate as an institution in a civilian democracy, with respect for due process and the rule of law.

Security officials had told him that the Islamist satellite networks that were shut down “have been calling for vengeance and murder and incitement to kill, so they have to shut them down for a while,” Mr. ElBaradei said, and that in some raided stations “there were weapons.”

Mr. ElBaradei said he had “emphasized to all the security authorities here that everything has to be done in due process,” adding, “I would be the first one to shout loud and clearly if I see any sign of regression in terms of democracy.”

“We did not have a recall process. People ask for the recall process with their feet in Tahrir Square,” he said. “In my judgment, we could not have waited even one more week.”
“We just lost two and a half years,” he added, “As Yogi Berra said, ‘it’s déjà vu all over again,’ but hopefully this time we will get it right.”

Yes you lost two and a half years and I'm sure you couldn't wait another week. I'm sure you'll make sure the military behave and respect due process, even if part of that process involves justifications like 'OMG! they had a gun!' and 'We didn't have a recall process so we invented one that relied on guns'.

 

[elbows]

It says something about how crap the old fart version of SCAF was at propaganda that the new bunch think they can present a democratic transition with greater credibility this time around despite the starting point being a military coup.

Mind you I'm sure it will be a 'proper' democracy this time, how could it not be with Islamists hostile to it and liberals cuddling up to it Pay no attention to the previous version, that was just, erm, necessary foundation work in order to get the cast to play their respective traditional roles properly and stop making the wrong noises for this game.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I was reading that because of the hierarchical structure of the Muslim Brotherhood now that their top leaders have been detained they are strategically like headless chickens. I don't know if that is true.

 

[butchersapron]

I was reading that because of the hierarchical structure of the Muslim Brotherhood now that their top leaders have been detained they are strategically like headless chickens. I don't know if that is true.

Utterly not true. They are a top led organsiation that heavily relies on the downward flow of commandos info etc but their main guidance bods have been locked up for decades and they didn't disappear (not that their detention was long or onerous this time). They have a second, third fourth tier.

 

[sihhi]

I also consider that '22 million person petition' to be a sort of twist of the colour revolution model. But instead of trying to undermine the legitimacy of elections, they had their own pseudo-election in the form of the petition. I say this because of the lengths they went to to make their petition appear to be equivalent of an election, even claiming that they checked peoples names against electoral rolls.

None of this makes me take the MB side or reject all opposition groups outright, it simply reflects the ways my nostrils have twitched in recent days.

Of course it's a form of 'colour revolution' but that it is often what happens when faced with an authoritarian centralising executive.

A petition is no less legitimate than an election which is simply a series of different petitions in a wooden box or electronic screen. However because they seek stability and a mostly politically silent population for 4.5 out of a 5 year cycle, Western capitalist democracy tends to place the election as the prime form of democracy not the petition.

The Tamarrod petition says nothing about military intervention, it is all very well for an observer to say 'clearly a coup was coming, they were dumb to fall for it'

but a. many believed the armed forces were reformed and essentially loyal to stability and the government (whoever that was), Sissi was appointed by Morsi when Morsi had the backing of more people in October pre-Constitution and a free option as to who to chose.
Plus he seemed to be from a conservative, Islamic background his wife was veil-wearing, he himself is devout, so the Islamist press praised him. He had good relations with the Brotherhood in the Mubarak era in Alexandria. Many didn't believe there would be an ultimatum after protests lasting 4 days from 26-30 June.
Many believed Morsi would have to concede to a national unity or coalition government even with the ultimatum so they didn't denounce the ultimatum, because they believed rightly or wrongly that their parties would concede in similar circumstances for the good of the nation, then Morsi's speech of defiance. It was desperate doublethink all round maybe.
b. More generally the steady ramping of authoritarian Brotherhood rule alarmed people (the burning Shiites in particular became a touchstone), NSF people being beaten up (at the very least) in Brotherhood areas, that the right to persuade Brotherhood supporters against them - especially as the economy flatlined - were discarded/denied by 'the brothers' on the ground. So they believed the situation would be worse over the next four years not better. For various reasons the assumption that liberals had that the Brotherhood would become more normalised in' democratic politics' was being proved wrong by events - who knows where it would lead etc etc - any act at all was better than doing nothing.

c. Some believed the army was the prime mover in the revolution not 'the youth', not the secular parties, not the Brotherhood that bringing down Mubarak was a coup universally praised as a revolutionary act, so the military should have autonomy, should have a key role in politics it provides a better form of stability/normalcy than the Brotherhood's mumin-based one. After all the army got rid of Mubarak-NDP etc etc.

 

[sihhi]

own pseudo-election in the form of the petition

Why not pseudo-petition in the form of the election/Brotherhood's executive system (judges stripped of legal checks, Brotherhood MPs replacing opposition by fiat, investigations opened up against NSF activists for betraying the revolution).
What makes the petition less legitimate than a future election (Brotherhood consitution and legal-setting)?

 

[sihhi]

Does anyone have a profile of the kind of people taking to the streets last night in Alexandria to face down the Brotherhood types?

 

[sihhi]

Utterly not true. They are a top led organsiation that heavily relies on the downward flow of commandos info etc but their main guidance bods have been locked up for decades and they didn't disappear (not that their detention was long or onerous this time). They have a second, third fourth tier.

This is the same with the Hindu populists as well the Janata / BJP's RSS base stays even though the regional leaderships (sometimes who leaderships as in Emergency) are arrested.

Arresting the Brotherhood leadership I think will be to in order to make a better legal justification for the benefit of the European Union, which says that its loans and grants are still tied to progress on reform and democratic process - ie it's not going to flow,
and the African Union, who have suspended Egypt outright as a member under the influence of Libya, Tunisia and Sudan most prominently.

 

[teqniq]

Amazing vid

 

[Poo Flakes]

What makes the petition less legitimate than a future election (Brotherhood consitution and legal-setting)?

Hypthetical scenario: El Baradei wins a landslide and in response the Muslim Brotherhood claim to have a petition with 25 million signatures, backed with the claim that they checked each one against the electoral register. I imagine in this scenario you would be the first to congratulate President Morsi on having support of the Egyptian people.

 

[elbows]

Arresting the Brotherhood leadership I think will be to in order to make a better legal justification for the benefit of the European Union, which says that its loans and grants are still tied to progress on reform and democratic process - ie it's not going to flow,
and the African Union, who have suspended Egypt outright as a member under the influence of Libya, Tunisia and Sudan most prominently.

I doubt that. Charges such as 'insulting the judiciary' don't usually enhance a nations democratic credentials overseas.

Besides at this stage its not clear whether they will actually charge the MB leadership. The high-profile arrests (& in some cases subsequent releases or denials by the MB concerned that they were arrested in the first place) may very well be just about the present moment and trying to shape the immediate MB response to the coup. Possible subsequent leniency towards the MB leadership is more likely to be used to impress foreign donors than the arrests.

 

[elbows]

The Tamarrod petition says nothing about military intervention, it is all very well for an observer to say 'clearly a coup was coming, they were dumb to fall for it'

Come off it. Of course the petition didn't say 'sign up for a military coup', but as I pointed out the other day there were public noises at least as far back as March from opposition figures that indicated they knew very well what they were asking for.

Opposition leader Essam Al-Islambouli of the National Salvation Front told Al-Ahram Weekly, “Today, we don’t just have a convoluted political process, but we are also facing confused and disturbing economic challenges, and we are seeing the threat of citizens bearing arms against each other. We might be reaching a point at which it will become inevitable for the Armed Forces to step in.”

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of Egypt’s Constitutional Party and founding member of the opposition National Salvation Front, told Ahram Onlinethat while he doesn’t “hope the military takes over,” it would be better to be ruled by the military than by Islamic militias.

For various reasons the assumption that liberals had that the Brotherhood would become more normalised in' democratic politics' was being proved wrong by events - who knows where it would lead etc etc - any act at all was better than doing nothing.

I don't think they ever made that assumption, no matter how many of their public statements in the past suggested they were prepared to give the MB the benefit of the doubt. The liberals would have known from day one that their main problem was how the hell the liberals could possibly win under a democratic system at that moment, especially when there were not only splits within each flavour of the opposition, and between liberals and leftists, but also that a huge chunk of the non-Islamist vote would back people associated with the Mubarak regime. To win requires a situation more like what is emerging now, where all these groups are more united and aligned with the military, and the MB given reasons not to engage with the future elections.

Morsi and the MB stayed true to form, with all the horrors and mistakes that entailed. But that doesn't mean I have to ignore the usual signs of liberals being very bad losers who love a rigged game. Oops, sorry, I mean they are the only ones with a strong enough idea of what democracy really is to set the rules

 

[sihhi]

Hypthetical scenario: El Baradei wins a landslide and in response the Muslim Brotherhood claim to have a petition with 25 million signatures, backed with the claim that they checked each one against the electoral register. I imagine in this scenario you would be the first to congratulate President Morsi on having support of the Egyptian people.

The Tamarrod petition is there with 22m signatures if you doubt its veracity offer something instead of re-repeating the insinuation.
Morsi received 5.7m in the first round, and 13.2m in the second round (notwithstanding the irregularities that judges were replaced to stop investigation). Since then the approval rating of the President has sunk to around 20%.
The Brotherhood response - the party leader Farid Ismail declaring in advance that “June 30 protests do not have anything to do with the performance of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in power”.

We might aswell raise the reality to your very hypothetical scenario that the Brotherhood would inescapably try to hitch onto the armed forces aswell.
Once again to recap - the Brotherhood leadership tries to expand the power of the army - to detain and try civilians not in service - when it's on their side, but now when it's not it complains that these MB-expanded armed forces powers have their effect in terms of a corrective coup to bring military justice against Brotherhood governors and leaders.
According to the Brotherhood the whole of Egypt should be subject to military justice and trials when necessary, except them.

Once again for you what point are you making with your hypothetical?