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Trump’s Illiberal Foreign Policy?
A nascent Trump doctrine appears to be
unpredictable,
transactional, and unilateral. This creates uncertainty in the minds of allies and enemies alike as to whether the U.S. will pursue long-term interests and stability or abide by the whims of an erratic president who thinks that he can make deals with a world that is inherently subordinate to his desires. Moreover, the possibility of
extensive conflicts of interest will leave observers to wonder whether Trump is acting for personal gain – or for his country’s interests. Already, hordes of foreign diplomats are flocking to Trump’s luxury hotel near the White House,
hoping to curry favor with the incoming president. This is not a winning recipe for an American president to develop and conduct an effective foreign policy.
The inherent uncertainty built into Trump’s style of foreign policy threatens American power in fundamental ways. The president-elect’s
proclamations erode American reliability and predictability, which are foundational to deterrence and compellence. Even if Trump wants to go it alone in the world, it is hard to see how the U.S. can exercise power under such conditions. Instead, the conduct of foreign policy is likely to involve domestic battles between a president lacking political acumen and a political and economic establishment that is desperate to hold on to America’s prominent and influential position. Most likely, Trump will then turn to the people who voted for him, using divisive populist rhetoric, leading to increased domestic political instability. Collectively, this could accelerate global uncertainty, creating significant opportunities for foes to seize upon.
Furthermore, Trump’s public persona, to which some have referred to as
Nixon’s madman strategy, is dismissive of
special relationships developed with countries over time that share political, diplomatic, cultural, military, and historical ties. Alliances that are foundations of American power in the international system appear destined to face an ahistorical transactional framework that has no consideration or basic precept of power. Trump’s conceptualization of the international system created by the United States and cultivated during the Cold War and after appears to be faltering.
Finally, Trump’s personalist worldview stands as a type of illiberal American foreign policy that will be remembered as the critical element in the decline of American power. Perhaps Trump thinks the world will remain relatively benign and supportive of what America wants, and that most will follow his rules and Tweets. This vision is blind to the realities of chaos and insecurity in the international system that E.H. Carr once cautioned.
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