Donald Trump, the road that might not lead to the White House!

[butchersapron]

There's definitely a fuck it vote, and all the people planning to stay home because both choices are shit: The ad up there might be crass as hell but it is getting across the message to go vote for Not Trump, saying you don't have to trust or like HC all you have to do is find Trump scarier.

'getting across' - what do you have to support this?

 

[8den]

What is the social base of the trump vote?

Generally Older white and less well educated. Y'know YEHAW-UKIP

 

[bimble]

'getting across' - what do you have to support this?

l should have said 'it is attempting to convey'

 

[butchersapron]

LOL. Is that right, did i do it right?

 

[bimble]

LOL. Is that right, did i do it right?

What is the point of this ?

 

[redsquirrel]

Generally Older white and less well educated. Y'know YEHAW-UKIP

Rednecks and white trash eh?

 

[butchersapron]

l should have said 'it is attempting to convey'

Yet you didn't - your assumptions made the content. What happens after?

 

[butchersapron]

What is the point of this ?

What is the social base of trump supporters?

 

[bimble]

What is the social base of trump supporters?

I don't know. I hope it was ok for me to say a thing about that advert without knowing the correct answer to this question you are posing.
Far as I can tell it helps to be white, male, older rather than younger, and maybe in insecure non unionised labour. How would you define the social base of trump supporters?

 

[butchersapron]

. (deleted cos i was asking a silly question)

Yeah? Nice to let posters know.

 

[DotCommunist]

At least Mexico should be safe from the radiation, with that fucking big wall. When he gets them to pay for it he should maybe offer an upgrade to lead lined.

to be serious for a moment I don't think- in the increasingly unlikely chance that donald does get the throne of skulls- his own deep state/military etc etc would allow him to go nuking. This is the 3 am tweets man more concerned with a miss america sex tape than the realities of office. I was saying this to Frogwoman the other day, I think he's met a mchine that is outside of his experience, the Democrat electoral machine. The pussy grab leak was timed exquisitely and I see no hapenstance in that. Yes he is entrenched wealth but from the grubbier side of it and business isn't politics. A sanders could have wiped him easily.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't know. I hope it was ok for me to say a thing about that advert without knowing the correct answer to this question you are posing.
Far as I can tell it helps to be white, male, older rather than younger, and maybe in insecure non unionised labour. How would you define the social base of trump supporters?

Oh right, you badger anti-clinton posters with this question and this - this unsupported, unreffed, unsourced wave in the air is what you have.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't know. [....]
Far as I can tell it helps to be white, male, older rather than younger, and maybe in insecure non unionised labour. How would you define the social base of trump supporters?

Four days ago

More evidence that Trump's base is not the American white working class Do Unions Like Donald Trump? AFL-CIO Poll Shows GOP Nominee Lagging Behind Mitt Romney

What is his base then ?

Whiter, older, better off people it seems. The median household income for Trump voters in the Republican primaries was $72,000.

 

[bimble]

Oh right, you badger anti-clinton posters with this question and this- this unsupported, unreffed wave in the air is what you have.

If I've been asking a question its badgering anti-clinton people? ok. You've just done several posts in a row whose only point was to give me a kicking so will leave you to it.
redsquirrel yep, and asking helped. Or are questions not allowed here.

 

[butchersapron]

If I've been asking a question its badgering anti-clinton people? ok. You've just done several posts in a row whose only point was to give me a kicking so will leave you to it.

Poor bimble. There will be a genuine misunderstanding along shortly.

 

[Wilf]

to be serious for a moment I don't think- in the increasingly unlikely chance that donald does get the throne of skulls- his own deep state/military etc etc would allow him to go nuking. This is the 3 am tweets man more concerned with a miss america sex tape than the realities of office. I was saying this to Frogwoman the other day, I think he's met a mchine that is outside of his experience, the Democrat electoral machine. The pussy grab leak was timed exquisitely and I see no hapenstance in that. Yes he is entrenched wealth but from the grubbier side of it and business isn't politics. A sanders could have wiped him easily.

Sounds good to me. There's something about Trump that takes you into the difference between the power elite and the actual state. In many ways they overlap, but in Trump they may not do in a rather specific way. As you say, he's both inherited wealth but also a brash 'ousider billionaire'. If he was to become president you'd think that would be just about the ultimate coming together of state power and elite wealth power. But personality wise and politically, he's setting himself up as 'not business as usual', ignoring all channels of diplomacy. There will already be bits of the state and military who are planning how to manage him.

Never thought I'd be doing a comparison between Tony Benn and Donald Trump, but you could imagine the Trump's first volume of Presidential memoirs wibbling on about the way the senior civil service organised against him and blocked his 'democratic mandate'/'will of the American people' at every turn.

 

[petee]

Oh; I thought the eejit was yelling "Jew-S-A, Jew-S-A" in some kind of conspiraloon play on "U-S-A, U-S-A"...

i guess that could be, i saw it as printed "Jew S-- A--".

 

[agricola]

Given the latest Podesta leak and the fact we now know debate questions were leaked during Primary debates, will those who until now have claimed in the face of all evidence that the DNC didn't rig the primary against Sanders now recant?

I watched that debate, wasn't that the question where she declared war on lead?

 

[DotCommunist]

Sounds good to me. There's something about Trump that takes you into the difference between the power elite and the actual state. In many ways they overlap, but in Trump they may not do in a rather specific way. As you say, he's both inherited wealth but also a brash 'ousider billionaire'. If he was to become president you'd think that would be just about the ultimate coming together of state power and elite wealth power. But personality wise and politically, he's setting himself up as 'not business as usual', ignoring all channels of diplomacy. There will already be bits of the state and military who are planning how to manage him.

Never thought I'd be doing a comparison between Tony Benn and Donald Trump, but you could imagine the Trump's first volume of Presidential memoirs wibbling on about the way the senior civil service organised against him and blocked his 'democratic mandate'/'will of the American people' at every turn.

'governments come and go. We remain'

 

[8den]

Rednecks and white trash eh?

Those are your pejorative terms not mine.

2. Voter general election preferences

 

[Yossarian]

I don't know. I hope it was ok for me to say a thing about that advert without knowing the correct answer to this question you are posing.
Far as I can tell it helps to be white, male, older rather than younger, and maybe in insecure non unionised labour. How would you define the social base of trump supporters?

White, male, older voters without college degrees definitely make up a big chunk of Trump supporters, but that's a group that has been leaning Republican in many states for a long time - if white men were the only people voting, McCain would have won in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

Income figures from the primaries can be misleading - only around 15% of voters took part in the GOP primaries, and those voters tended to be wealthier than average - but those lower-income voters that did vote didn't choose Trump in proportions very different from other groups.

So all Trump has on his side is core GOP demographics, and he needs them to turn out in massive numbers for him to have a chance, which is why trying to do things like raise his support among black voters above 1%.

 

[J Ed]

 

[JTG]

Polls are tightening - seems that Clinton isn't exactly losing support but Trump is picking up support from undecideds and third party supporters.

Michigan/Wisconsin/Minnesota still seem underpolled - they are apparently still in Clinton's column but there's less polling data for them than for the swing states and given they form part of Clinton's so-called 'firewall' along with Pennsylvania (ie so long as Clinton wins them, she wins the White House), it's a slight concern for her that there may be an unpleasant surprise lurking in the upper Mid West.

Interesting article on FiveThirtyEight about the possibility of a popular vote/electoral college split, which is most likely to benefit Trump if it happens. Clinton's problem here is that she's outperforming Obama in a number of Red States where Whites with college degrees are headed her way - Arizona, Utah, Texas, Georgia - but unlikely to win any of them except, perhaps, Arizona. Conversely she's underperforming BO in the Mid West and Nevada, putting several states potentially within Trump's grasp.

These are only doubts right now, rather than full on harbingers of doom. If the polls tighten further over the next week then she has a problem. Chances are she's going to get home but I question whether a more appealing candidate wouldn't be doing a whole lot better in most of these key states

 

[nuffsaid]

Trump predicted to win -

Professor who’s correctly called every presidential election since 1984 predicts Trump will win

 

[Yossarian]

Doesn't sound like he's going to be betting the farm on it: "We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 ... I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House."

 

[bimble]

There's this one saying the same thing but in this case it seems to be based on online 'engagement', so maybe it's just mistaken, because Trump getting more attention online is not a surprise.
An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last 3 elections says Trump will win

 

[kabbes]

Doesn't sound like he's going to be betting the farm on it: "We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 ... I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House."

Yeah, he's basically saying it's 50/50 if you actually read the article. He's looking for six "keys" our of thirteen to go against the incumbent. There are currently exactly six, including one that is incredibly marginal (an independent with 5% of the vote... and one does currently have just over 5%). It would only take a small breath of wind to push his prediction the other way.

 

[kabbes]

There's this one saying the same thing but in this case it seems to be based on online 'engagement', so maybe it's just mistaken, because Trump getting more attention online is not a surprise.
An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last 3 elections says Trump will win

There is a 1/8 change that a coin flip correctly predicts three elections in a row. Throw in that the last two were also obvious to predict anyway and I'm not that impressed with its track record.

 

[bimble]

Yep, a lot of this is just clickbait. Maybe the more stories come out saying Trump's going to win it will cause more people to hold their noses & vote HC on the day, I don't know.

 

[frogwoman]

So as far as clintons emails go, is it really that serious a scandal - serious enough to depress turnout i mean? im not sure i fully understand whats happened. was wiener sending the latest emails from her computer or something?

Im sure they must all have private email servers, its just that she got caught doing it