The thing about PA being a swing state is weird. It's a Blue state with a high Red vote effectively - there are very few floating voters there and the high Democrat vote in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh etc is always enough to defeat the rural Republican vote. Missouri used to be considered a swing state but went Red so often that it's not in that column any more - tbh Pennsylvania should be the same.
Didn't touch on the female vote but yes, here's another group that are less inclined to vote Trump than they were Bush.
Point of order, Virginia is pretty much a lock for the Blue team these days - Bush won it twice but the state has changed over the past decade and the Republicans barely even try there any more. Other demographic changes are shifting Arizona, Texas, South Carolina and Georgia towards the Democrats over time which highlights your point - the Democrats are looking capable of expanding their electoral map over the next few years while the Republicans are fighting to hold on to what they had. For this year, yep - Trump has to win every single swing state to get to the White House while Clinton can afford to lose one or two
