redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
LBJ has covered some of this. Yes of course losing the popular vote does not mean that the electoral college vote will be lost, but it does make it harder and there has always been a greater anti-Trump than pro-Trump base.
Voter suppression measures are bad but the effect can be overstated - as 2020 and 2022 show. Attempts at voter suppression could help increase Democrat vote. Likewise with violence and intimidation, they can, and have, mobilise the anti-Trump vote.
Biden's administration is of course neoliberal but it is to the left of Obamas administration. And the potential weakness of Biden's record and age are potentially offset by the fact that being incumbent is a huge advantage. And both the 2020 and 2022 results show the Democrats are at least competitive in the Rustbelt.
Sure there are good reasons why Trump should not be written off, but to conclude that it is very likely that he will win the Presidency back at this point is just guessing. Trump still has to win the candidacy, that is looking likely at the moment, but if DeSantis or anyone else makes a move there has a potential to be a pretty bruising battle. In contrast, Biden will (barring some serious upset) walk the Democratic candidacy race. And Biden's age which could be an attack line for DeSantis is not effective if Trump is the candidate.
EDIT: I don't know how you are judging 'very likely', but for the IPCC say it means >90%. Are you really claiming that sort of certainty for this?
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