COVID-19 in America

[HAL9000]

Biden to give away 400 million N95 masks starting next week

The Biden administration will begin making 400 million N95 masks available for free to Americans starting next week, now that federal officials are emphasizing their better protection against the omicron variant of COVID-19 over cloth face coverings.

apnews.com

 

[High Voltage]

Just in time for the States of America to pass the next milestone of 900k deaths - currently standing at just shy of 895k as of yesterday . . . figures, as always, from the ever reliable World-o-Meter

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Dogsauce]

They’ve added that latest 100,000 very quickly. Red state refuseniks at a guess, dying to own Biden.

 

[High Voltage]

The latest covid death toll has just clicked over the 900,000 mark as of today

Figure from, as previous, the ever reliable World-O-meters

 

[Cloo]

Had an interesting and actually fairly civil exchange with some Americans who were very 'Mask wearing is so hard and antisocial and it's enough, can't just vulnerable people stay wearing them?' and had the thought that I wonder, do Americans culturally find masks harder than the more reticent British?

British anti-maskers don't really talk about the 'communication' side as much, but then we don't stop and have a chat at the bus stop and supermarket queues, while Americans are much more likely to, and I can see masks are not helpful for those sorts of interactions that we Brits hate so much on the rare occasions they happen.

 

[8ball]

Had an interesting and actually fairly civil exchange with some Americans who were very 'Mask wearing is so hard and antisocial and it's enough, can't just vulnerable people stay wearing them?' and had the thought that I wonder, do Americans culturally find masks harder than the more reticent British?

British anti-maskers don't really talk about the 'communication' side as much, but then we don't stop and have a chat at the bus stop and supermarket queues, while Americans are much more likely to, and I can see masks are not helpful for those sorts of interactions that we Brits hate so much on the rare occasions they happen.

I’m not sure I recognise much of that. Have heard plenty from people here saying how the masks impede communication (a definite point from anti-maskers, but it seems accepted by everyone ime).

Are you from London? Not wanting to resort to stereotypes but that could explain it..

Also, when I was last in America the barman said he could tell me and my colleague were British even before he heard our accents because our demeanour was so much more sociable than most people he serves (he was also British). To be fair, Princeton did have an oddly ‘offish’ vibe, and the States as a whole don’t feel as friendly as they did 20 years ago.

I think one error from the Americans you spoke to was that it’s not so much vulnerable people that should be wearing them as symptomatic people (at least if we’re talking about fairly basic masks).

 

[Dogsauce]

A cop who was fired for not taking the vaccine and had a massive rant about it that went viral, leading to appearances on Fox etc. and being feted by the usual idiots, has succumbed to the virus.

The full cautionary tale here:

Robert Lamay, 50, Naches, WA, Ex-State Trooper, Anti-vaxxer, dead from COVID

UPDATE(1/28/22): Robert who quit his job rather than get vaccinated is dead from COVID. see below Orginal Post (1/23/2022):According to an insider tip to SAV, Robert is in the hospital on a CPAP with COVID. Robert gained national attention when, after he was fired as a Washington State Trooper...

www.sorryantivaxxer.com

 

[elbows]

 

[Yossarian]

Another 3,622 deaths recorded in the US Monday, making it one of the worst days of the pandemic - cumulative deaths as a proportion of the population have now passed Britain and Belgium, but none of it seems to have had any effect on vaccination rates.

 

[Dogsauce]

At some point I guess the Republican Party will apply the brakes and stop their media mouthpieces spreading vaccine doubt. Maybe after the mid terms? They know they can cripple Biden as long as this shit keeps running, and depress his popularity by forcing the government to apply counter measures such as masks, lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

 

[StoneRoad]

Would be too much to hope that the anti-mask & anti-vaxx attitude of the republicans will remove, via covid, enough of their supporters from the gene & voting pools to make a difference, won't it ?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

At some point I guess the Republican Party will apply the brakes and stop their media mouthpieces spreading vaccine doubt. Maybe after the mid terms? They know they can cripple Biden as long as this shit keeps running, and depress his popularity by forcing the government to apply counter measures such as masks, lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

I'm not sure it works that way round tbh, and certainly not that simply. From what I can gather most Republicans are falling over each other to get the approval of the far more rabid media and the Trumpist base. Who would make that 'back off' call?

 

[StoneRoad]

I'm not sure it works that way round tbh, and certainly not that simply. From what I can gather most Republicans are falling over each other to get the approval of the far more rabid media and the Trumpist base. Who would make that 'back off' call?

TxXxp got booed when at a rally he suggested the audience should get vaxx'd ...

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

TxXxp got booed when at a rally he suggested the audience should get vaxx'd ...

Well quite. If he can't call off his own dogs I don't see the Republican establishment being able to do it. There'll probably be plenty of them fancying being even more Trumpy than Trump though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Another 3,622 deaths recorded in the US Monday, making it one of the worst days of the pandemic - cumulative deaths as a proportion of the population have now passed Britain and Belgium, but none of it seems to have had any effect on vaccination rates.


View attachment 308384

Couple of things about that.

First, the deaths in December are mostly Delta deaths rather than Omicron ones.

Second, since delta has been eclipsed by omicron, we're seeing excess deaths numbers around Europe plummet, often to negative values - the week ending 14 Jan saw minus 1,000 or so excess deaths in England. It's a bit of a curious one - Covid deaths up, but overall deaths down. It's not just displacing delta, it also appears to be largely suppressing the spread of other viral infections at the moment.

In the US, excess deaths are still running positive, but look like they're also falling. The overall picture may not be quite as bad as the raw figures used to produce those graphs make it seem.

England excess deaths:
Microsoft Power BI

Europe excess deaths:

Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO

World excess deaths:

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

 

[Dogsauce]

America gets hit hard because it has high levels of obesity, which is a big comorbidity with Covid. That and the low level of vaccine uptake, especially as this low level often combines with people unwilling to take other precautions either, and how this is sometimes focused in particular areas (Republican districts mostly).

Is it also correct to say that although omicron is milder than previous variants, it’s still on a par with the original virus that still killed tens of thousands? It’s only vaccination making it ‘mild’ for most people, if you’re unjabbed and have comorbidities then it can still take you out.

 

[elbows]

Second, since delta has been eclipsed by omicron, we're seeing excess deaths numbers around Europe plummet, often to negative values - the week ending 14 Jan saw minus 1,000 or so excess deaths in England. It's a bit of a curious one - Covid deaths up, but overall deaths down. It's not just displacing delta, it also appears to be largely suppressing the spread of other viral infections at the moment.

I'll return to USA stuff later, but in regards excess deaths in England, please note that for 2022 the ONS decided to move on from comparing current deaths to the 2015-2019 average and to include 2021 (but not 2020) in those averages. This blog post discusses that, although I feel they downplay the extent to which the early months of 2021 affect that calculation due to a bad wave at the time: Understanding excess deaths during a pandemic | National Statistical

I often work round that stuff to an extent by looking at total deaths from all causes and not just what the authorities deem to be excess deaths. I'd say that 2022 so far still does not stick out hugely, but treat this as a vague comment for now because I havent analysed things properly recently.

The interplay between different viruses is poorly understood (including our rather simplistic understanding of the immune system) but you really shouldnt attribute attribute everything seen to the virus itself, dont forget about human behaviour and measures such as masks. Some of these measures may have a greater effect on other viruses than they do the recent highly transmissible strains of covid. I know you have your own beliefs about how much difference masks etc actually make, but even if this leads you to remove such factors from the picture, there are other factors too - for example changes to the proportions of people dying at home, in hospital and in care homes are still apparent at this stage of the pandemic, and we might expect some of those to make a difference to the spread of other respiratory viruses within vulnerable populations during winter. If less people than 'normal' are in care homes then there is less opportunity for as many people as 'normal' to be finished off by institutional outbreaks of winter respiratory disease. Likewise hospitals. And even if numbers in those settings arent very different to normal, attention to general infection control measures in those settings are still massively heightened at the moment compared to pre-pandemic times.

 

[elbows]

Also our view of UK death also gets distorted by the fact Covid gets most of the attention. For example here is a weekly picture from one of the weekly ONS spreadsheets, the link to which I unfortunately dont have to hand right now:

 

[elbows]

America gets hit hard because it has high levels of obesity, which is a big comorbidity with Covid. That and the low level of vaccine uptake, especially as this low level often combines with people unwilling to take other precautions either, and how this is sometimes focused in particular areas (Republican districts mostly).

Is it also correct to say that although omicron is milder than previous variants, it’s still on a par with the original virus that still killed tens of thousands? It’s only vaccination making it ‘mild’ for most people, if you’re unjabbed and have comorbidities then it can still take you out.

Yes.

littlebabyjesus is not talking 100% shit about Omicron relative to Delta, but he overstates the point in a way that makes a mockery of the actual levels of death seen in January in the USA due to Omicron.

 

[elbows]

What I'm unlikely to be able to find is nice tidy data that completely obliterates his point in full, it will just erode it. Omicron still kills, and when you have a ridiculous number of infections it will still lead to high numbers. Its a combination of the inherent properties of Omicron plus vaccination (including timely booster campaigns) plus prior infection that has allowed some countries to have a much smaller wave of death this time. Some of those successes are more limited in the USA, and the results are grim.

Likewise when their deaths fall substantially it will be via a combination of things - more of the most vulnerable and unvaccinated will already be dead or develop natural immunity, the severity of the wave will have led to behavioural changes, the number of new infections will have dropped substantially, hospitals wont be as overwhelmed, weather-related health burdens will reduce, the last dregs of Delta may be much reduced, etc etc. But in the meantime, there are plenty of news stories from January about how the highly transmissive Omicron wave causes big problems.

Some of these articles acknowledge the complex detail, including the sort of things that mean littlebabyjesus is not 100% wrong, but the USA is an example of why care should be taken to understand the difference between 'Omicron is milder' and 'Omicron is mild'. And those differences matter especially during the explosive growth stage of the Omicron wave, where the bad news details of Omicron can still outweigh the positives aspects of Omicron compared to Delta. Over time the balance will likely shift and the more positive aspects of reduced Omicron severity could still lead the USA to something more closely resembling the better picture seen in a bunch of other countries, but in the meantime there is no point denying how horrible their numbers have been recently.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-01-28/omicron-drives-us-deaths-higher-than-in-falls-delta-wave

US faces wave of omicron deaths in coming weeks, models say

The fast-moving omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, yet COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are climbing.

apnews.com

 

[elbows]

For example, the positive aspects of Omicron managed to result in USA intensive care numbers only matching rather than exceeding levels seen in previous waves. And the 'good news' side of Omicron will show up more clearly if the drop that has begun is sustained and rapid and gets the numbers down to a level they havent previously managed to fall below during the entire pandemic so far.

Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU)

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.

ourworldindata.org

We can also contrast this with countries that have had better vaccine uptake, but have also done more to control previous waves via non-pharmaceutical measures in the past, but arent bothering with as many of those things this time around with Omicron. For example I am keeping a close eye on Israel this time, for reasons the following intensive care graph and death graph should demonstrate. Again, unpicking all the relevant factors perfectly isnt easy, and we need to consider the huge number of infections, limited counter measures, and unknowns in regards stuff like booster programme timing and any possible waning of protection against severe disease and death. But this is certainly an example where the benefits of vaccination and Omicrons inherent properties are used up via the sheer number of infections that have been allowed to occur, leading to new heights of daily death. Some of the daily death increase is likely down to higher levels of 'incidental' covid death, something that is inevitable in a wave with such a large numbers of infections, but plenty of them are still real Covid deaths.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes.

littlebabyjesus is not talking 100% shit about Omicron relative to Delta, but he overstates the point in a way that makes a mockery of the actual levels of death seen in January in the USA due to Omicron.

The point is that looking at excess deaths gives the overall situation in the northern hemisphere winter.

It was bad with delta - steady excess death wherever there was any heightened level of covid infection. The UK is a good example - six months of low-ish but persistent excess deaths at or a little above the headline covid death figures. But from January, one has to be careful with one's figures - because omicron has changed things very significantly. While the figure 'covid deaths' has risen a little in the UK in January, the figure for excess deaths has plummeted well below zero for the first time since July.

The numbers in the US do appear to be going in a similar direction even with high numbers of covid deaths. Similar patterns are appearing across Europe.

 

[elbows]

The point is that looking at excess deaths gives the overall situation in the northern hemisphere winter.

It was bad with delta - steady excess death wherever there was any heightened level of covid infection. The UK is a good example - six months of low-ish but persistent excess deaths at or a little above the headline covid death figures. But from January, one has to be careful with one's figures - because omicron has changed things very significantly. While the figure 'covid deaths' has risen a little in the UK in January, the figure for excess deaths has plummeted well below zero for the first time since July.

The numbers in the US do appear to be going in a similar direction even with high numbers of covid deaths. Similar patterns are appearing across Europe.

In one of my posts today I already advised you to take into account the change to which years were part of the 5 year average for England & Wales.

Also look at total deaths from all causes, not just the calculated excess, because the threshold for what counts as normal is higher during these winter months. This results in phenomenon such as the 'figure for excess deaths plummeting below zero' at the same time that actual total deaths has not actually fallen compared to the previous weeks and months.

eg on the following graph we can see the total deaths and where the average is set for each week - the average spikes upwards in January so a similar amount of death as before is suddenly below that average rather than above it.


From Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

But as I already said this doesnt completely demolish all of your points in their entirety which is why I addressed various points in previous posts. It is certainly true for example that we havent seen a big death spike like we did a year ago. And the ratio of deaths to cases is different with Omicron, so we've been able to have a huge case wave without the increase in deaths tracking along to the same extent as seen in the past. But the USA is a demonstration of the limits of quite how far this can be relied upon, of how much vaccines still matter, and of how much death Omicron can still bring. The fall in deaths in the USA will be driven by the fall in cases, plus some of what you go on about in terms of Delta being largely removed from the scene.

edit - I since had reason to go on about some ONS data in the following UK thread with some quotes that demonstrate the difference between whats considered a normal level of death at this point in the year using the version of the average they are now using which includes 2021 (but not 2020) and the previous average they used which didnt have any pandemic years in it. This makes a difference to what counts as an excess death: #46,190

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Wasn't sure where to put this. This data doesn't reflect covid numbers, but I can't think 2021 numbers show a different pattern than this. Newer numbers might even show the pattern more fully. Its further proof that zip code matters:

The majority of U.S. states with the lowest life expectancies in 2019 were in the South, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report published Thursday.

The report, from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, ranked all 50 states and Washington, D.C., in order of residents' life expectancies in the year before the pandemic took hold. The results showed that Mississippi had the country's lowest life expectancy, at 74.4 years, which was significantly below the national average of 78.8. Hawaii, meanwhile, had the highest: 80.9 years.

After Mississippi, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, South Carolina and Ohio had the lowest life expectancies. All were below the national average.

While the report did not touch on poverty levels, Mississippi also had the greatest share of people — 19.5 percent — living below the poverty line in 2019, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Similarly, other states with low life expectancies had high shares of residents under the poverty line. Louisiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee and South Carolina all had more than 13.5 percent of the population below that line in 2019.

"When you look at the map of life expectancy, and if you were to look at a map of socioeconomic status — which includes poverty, education attainment — you would see that they would look very similar," said Elizabeth Arias, the lead author of the new report.

"Mortality from the leading causes of death are higher in those areas — heart disease, cancer, stroke," Arias added.

Research on life expectancies at the neighborhood level has revealed similar trends, she said.

"Life expectancy really correlated with the socioeconomic status of the population in the area," Arias said. "Really well-to-do areas had really high life expectancies."

Nine percent of Hawaii residents lived below the poverty line in 2019.

After Hawaii, the states with the highest life expectancies in 2019 were California, New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington state, Colorado and Vermont.

The new report also found that life expectancy was higher for women in all states and Washington, D.C.

"The difference in life expectancy between females and males ranged from 3.5 years in Utah to 6.4 years in Mississippi," the report said.

MSN

Here is the full report:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-18.pdf

We're supposedly the richest country on earth, but large numbers of people regularly die from poverty.

 

[High Voltage]

With the usual caveat that these figures are from the ever reliable World-O-meters

The States of America are still head and shoulders out in front on total cases and deaths, but are either no longer reporting all new cases or new case level are dropping significantly and other countries (interestingly Germany) seem to be having 200k new cases per day

However they are still, today, topping the daily deaths total and are edging ever closer to the one million mark (83% of the way there as of the 4th of March)

 

[High Voltage]

By this time next week the one million deaths from covid total will almost certainly have been passed

Think about that for a moment

ONE
MILLION
COVID
DEATHS

 

[High Voltage]

Figures, as always, from the every reliable World-O-Meter - 993,693 as of yesterday

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Or another, slightly less optimistic take on the numbers, the States of America appear to be through the one million dead mark

 

[High Voltage]

And they're through the 1 million mark as of yesterday

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Trying to take positives where possible and again, ALL my data comes from World-O-Meter web site

Total Cases: Obviously, the States of America have been way out in from almost straight out of the gate, more than then next two countries combined
New Cases: the States of America haven't been No. 1 for several days / weeks now and their total has been dropping considerably
New Deaths: the States of America were still No. 1 with 771 yesterday but the overall death total has been dropping

But ONE MILLION DEATHS

 

[elbows]

They were better at directly counting the deaths than some other large, badly affected countries, so they likely arent really the only members of the grim one million deaths pandemic club.

For example when estimating excess deaths due to covid, India might have had in the region of 4 million, and Russia over a million. ( DEFINE_ME )

 

[Yossarian]

Is it also correct to say that although omicron is milder than previous variants, it’s still on a par with the original virus that still killed tens of thousands? It’s only vaccination making it ‘mild’ for most people, if you’re unjabbed and have comorbidities then it can still take you out.

Yep, I think the figures from recent weeks in Hong Kong, where a lot of older people are unvaccinated, shows that omicron is only "milder" when compared to the delta variant, not earlier strains.