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phillm said:
Given the rate of increase in infection and our knowledge of the progress of the virus in China, Japan, Korea, Italy and Japan how long before we enter lockdown in some communities? This expert makes for a sombre viewing.

Click to expand...

If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:

Friday, 6 March 2020163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228
Sunday, 8 March 2020319
Monday, 9 March 2020447
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877
Thursday, 12 March 20201227
Friday, 13 March 20201473
Saturday, 14 March 20201767
Sunday, 15 March 20202121
Monday, 16 March 20202545
Tuesday, 17 March 20203054
Wednesday, 18 March 20203665
Thursday, 19 March 20204398
Friday, 20 March 20205277
Saturday, 21 March 20206333
Sunday, 22 March 20207599
Monday, 23 March 20209119
Tuesday, 24 March 202010943
Wednesday, 25 March 202013131
Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.
 
Italy now 4,636 cases, 197 dead, 10% of cases in ICUs

Palestinian Authority today all schools, universities, private establishments and public buildings closed first day of a month.

Iran's military checkpoints/blocks on motorways to stop private travel between cities has got going today ringing Qom.
 
Italy has just declared all non-emergency hospitalisations cancelled.
Doctors in some hospitals have made urgent appeals for equipment.
Govt will decide on Saturday whether to include Lombardia into the red zone or not, also said that it has not excluded extending the school closures beyond 15 March.
At least 150 family doctors are out of action either hospitalised or in self-isolation.
Italian intensive care patients now at around 480.
 
The mortality rate in Italy, then, is 4.2%. Are we to assume therefore that there are many more people with it undiagnosed? Number seems high compared to here or South Korea
 
Lombardia as a whole has 10% of hospital doctors either hospitalised or in isolation

Lombardia official quoted here:



I mentioned Australian models were too slow aswell expected community transfer six weeks later in April.
How will the NHS ones stand up?
 
Fez909 said:
If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:

Friday, 6 March 2020163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228
Sunday, 8 March 2020319
Monday, 9 March 2020447
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877
Thursday, 12 March 20201227
Friday, 13 March 20201473
Saturday, 14 March 20201767
Sunday, 15 March 20202121
Monday, 16 March 20202545
Tuesday, 17 March 20203054
Wednesday, 18 March 20203665
Thursday, 19 March 20204398
Friday, 20 March 20205277
Saturday, 21 March 20206333
Sunday, 22 March 20207599
Monday, 23 March 20209119
Tuesday, 24 March 202010943
Wednesday, 25 March 202013131
Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.
Click to expand...
 
planetgeli said:
Germany, 600 cases, 0 deaths.
Click to expand...

Doesn't Germany have a much better healthcare system than we do (now)? I think I read something Edie posted recently, comparing the two.


S☼I said:
The mortality rate in Italy, then, is 4.2%. Are we to assume therefore that there are many more people with it undiagnosed? Number seems high compared to here or South Korea
Click to expand...

sihhi said:
undertesting
Click to expand...

Worldwide, they do also have the highest proportion of elderly people after Japan, I think - so a higher death rate would follow, in any case, I guess?
 
Fez909 said:
If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:

Friday, 6 March 2020163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228
Sunday, 8 March 2020319
Monday, 9 March 2020447
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877
Thursday, 12 March 20201227
Friday, 13 March 20201473
Saturday, 14 March 20201767
Sunday, 15 March 20202121
Monday, 16 March 20202545
Tuesday, 17 March 20203054
Wednesday, 18 March 20203665
Thursday, 19 March 20204398
Friday, 20 March 20205277
Saturday, 21 March 20206333
Sunday, 22 March 20207599
Monday, 23 March 20209119
Tuesday, 24 March 202010943
Wednesday, 25 March 202013131
Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.
Click to expand...
It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.
 
Callie said:
It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.
Click to expand...
Yes, exactly!

As I said, millions of caveats. I did a very crude calculation: each day multiple by 1.4 until we drop down to 1.2. Well crude, but shows the kind of number we might be looking at.
 
sheothebudworths said:
Worldwide, they do also have the highest proportion of elderly people after Japan, I think - so a higher death rate would follow, in any case, I guess?
Click to expand...

As yet there's no particular evidence to suggest that of the 4,000+ infected a greater proportion are elderly than anywhere else. Following it anecdotally from China, the elderly die quicker the middle aged and the younger adults will come in time, unfortunately.
 
Callie said:
It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.
Click to expand...
Just for comparison, here's how Italy's cases increased day by day:

2020-02-22 79 (+295%)
2020-02-23 150 (+90%)
2020-02-24 227 (+51%)
2020-02-25 320 (+41%)
2020-02-26 445 (+39%)
2020-02-27 650 (+46%)
2020-02-28 888 (+37%)
2020-02-29 1,128 (+27%)
2020-03-01 1,694 (+50%)
2020-03-02 2,036 (+20%)
2020-03-03 2,502 (+23%)
2020-03-04 3,089 (+23%)
2020-03-05 3,858 (+25%)
2020-03-06 4,636 (+20%)

So we're about the 24th February compared to Italy's timeline....
 
sihhi said:
As yet there's no particular evidence to suggest that of the 4,000+ infected a greater proportion are elderly than anywhere else. Following it anecdotally from China, the elderly die quicker the middle aged and the younger adults will come in time, unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Yes, that makes sense (taking no comfort at the idea of losing a huge swathe of the older population anyway, fwiw).
 
I'd like to see number of tests performed alongside that. I think the UK have stated numbers tested not sure if Italy have done the same?

We'll probably lose the ability to count number of tests performed nationally once testing rolls out to local labs (or private ones), although you would hope they could provide data for epidemiological purposes
 
When the first epidemic wave of swine flu began, they stopped trying to test everyone and started relying on a range of indicators to estimate number of cases. I dont know exactly what the plan is this time, but I expect some change compared to the current system of testing at some point.
 
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