Fez909
toilet expert
Given the rate of increase in infection and our knowledge of the progress of the virus in China, Japan, Korea, Italy and Japan how long before we enter lockdown in some communities? This expert makes for a sombre viewing.
If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.
I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:
Friday, 6 March 2020 | 163 |
Saturday, 7 March 2020 | 228 |
Sunday, 8 March 2020 | 319 |
Monday, 9 March 2020 | 447 |
Tuesday, 10 March 2020 | 626 |
Wednesday, 11 March 2020 | 877 |
Thursday, 12 March 2020 | 1227 |
Friday, 13 March 2020 | 1473 |
Saturday, 14 March 2020 | 1767 |
Sunday, 15 March 2020 | 2121 |
Monday, 16 March 2020 | 2545 |
Tuesday, 17 March 2020 | 3054 |
Wednesday, 18 March 2020 | 3665 |
Thursday, 19 March 2020 | 4398 |
Friday, 20 March 2020 | 5277 |
Saturday, 21 March 2020 | 6333 |
Sunday, 22 March 2020 | 7599 |
Monday, 23 March 2020 | 9119 |
Tuesday, 24 March 2020 | 10943 |
Wednesday, 25 March 2020 | 13131 |
Thursday, 26 March 2020 | 15758 |
Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.
It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.
etc., etc.