Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[MrSki]

Have we had the 20A.EU1 variant which is said to account for 80% of new cases in the UK?

Free to read FT article here.

Scientists warn of new coronavirus variant spreading across Europe | Free to read

Genetic mutation that originated in Spain transmitted by returning holidaymakers, researchers find

www.ft.com

Non peer reviewed copy of the paper here.

Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

A variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in early summer 2020, presumably in Spain, and has since spread to multiple European countries. The variant was first observed in Spain in June and has been at frequencies above 40% since July. Outside of Spain, the frequency of this variant has increased from...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[Artaxerxes]

 

[lazythursday]

Accidental reply!

Never leave a half written post about garden centres you decided was far too dull to post sat in the edit box...

I obsessively look at the interactive map every day. It's interesting that the Liverpool city region has been on a downward slope since going into Tier 3, but the same measures appear to have had no impact whatsoever on Greater Manchester or Lancashire. I know Liverpool went in first, but some improvements should have showed up by now.

 

[bendeus]

I know it's a gamble and I know Wales has made some shit decisions in the past, but something they got absolutely right in the first lockdown, like limiting travel and reopening pubs on a gardens-only basis on Monday, rather then England's idiotic SOOOOPER SATURDAY reopening two weeks before.

This month is going to be a real test for some people suffering with their mental health, especially those living alone*

*raises hand

Did some work for a guy fairly recently who is the medical director for Bro Morgannwg Health Board. Nice guy. He reckons that a combination of fortuitous timing (national lockdown coming just before the wave really hit Wales) and government action in terms of the extra measures imposed by the Senedd saved a lot of lives. Claimed that if the Welsh figures were extrapolated across to England 25,000 fewer people would have died there in the first wave. Me, I don't know. Perhaps elbows would be able to give it a bit of a look?

 

[elbows]

I'm not going to attempt that sort of extrapolation. But to quickly add to that theme you can find some clues about the mortality rate in different parts Wales for the first wave, and a comment about how the rates everywhere in Wales were lower than England and all of the English regions apart from the South East and South West here:

Coronavirus: Wales has 'one of lowest' Covid-19 mortality rates

Figures also show 14 Welsh communities have not registered any deaths involving Covid-19.

www.bbc.co.uk

The figures mentioned are for up till the end of July so first wave only.

 

[Cloo]

I thought the report from Liverpool on the 10 O'clock news was really good - clearly explaining what the situation is, both what the problems are, and that although we still don't have as many people in hospital and on ventilators than at last peak, and treatment has improved, the NHS is trying to keep up the treatment of other conditions more than last time, and we are heading into winter - so it can get much, much worse unless something is done.

 

[elbows]

I thought the report from Liverpool on the 10 O'clock news was really good - clearly explaining what the situation is, both what the problems are, and that although we still don't have as many people in hospital and on ventilators than at last peak, and treatment has improved, the NHS is trying to keep up the treatment of other conditions more than last time, and we are heading into winter - so it can get much, much worse unless something is done.

This is the written version of that story.

Covid: 'We are hanging by a thread' - hospital doctor

If you want to know why England is going into lockdown, this hospital offers a glimpse.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Ax^]

I thought the report from Liverpool on the 10 O'clock news was really good - clearly explaining what the situation is, both what the problems are, and that although we still don't have as many people in hospital and on ventilators than at last peak, and treatment has improved, the NHS is trying to keep up the treatment of other conditions more than last time, and we are heading into winter - so it can get much, much worse unless something is done.

My fear is this is not going to be a strong enough measure

lockdown works by restricting the interaction of the population , looking at what's been reported by the media

and the governments delay in relaying the information to the public

it just makes be believe the party is currently in the process of watering down the lockdown to keep the economy flowing

i myself think this policy will lead to the restrictions being in place longer

 

[komodo]

I’ve heard that a lot of the students in Nottingham have already headed home.....

 

[crossthebreeze]

Yeah, I've been running round a field next to Newcastle Uni halls of residence, and it's extremely quiet - apart from a few middle aged dog walkers, there was one mushroom forager on Sunday, compared to the usual runners, cyclists, frisbee players, drone flyers, and people trailing back with shopping.

 

[elbows]

Sounds like we are going to find out how much they fuck up a city-wide testing scheme:

Covid-19: Liverpool to pilot city-wide coronavirus testing

It will use rapid results tests that could be offered to "millions" by Christmas, the PM says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Wilf]

Anyone done any number crunching with March and April rates and lockdown reducing them back then, compared with where we are now and what we can expect the coming weeks in reduction of cases? Feels highly unrealistic to me that with where we are now and the restrictions we have about to start we can get the rates down in anything like the planned 4 weeks. Even if they are down surely in 4 weeks we'll be in still having high rates of hospitalisations and deaths still? Be interested to see the figures and timescale...

The first lockdown was a fairly clear contrast between normal (fully open) and then people stopping meeting in most areas of daily life, though a fair number of people still went to work. The comparison now is between a society that is still half heartedly social distancing and has varying levels of restrictions in place throughout the country, moving into something where the main difference will just be in pubs and non-essential shops closing. All the other aspects of the latest lockdown are perhaps a tightening on what we are already doing (in broad terms). So yeah, I don't see it doing much, particularly with schools and universities open.

 

[Badgers]

 

[ska invita]

Some very relative degree of good news in this piece ,which sounds reasonable

The UK’s second wave of coronavirus may not be worse than the first
Five reasons lockdown might be coming earlier in the virus’s cycle than in March and is likely to cause less economic pain

Why the UK’s second wave is likely to cause less economic pain than the first

Five reasons the second lockdown might be coming earlier in the virus’s cycle than in March

www.ft.com

if you dont have a paywall bypass click on the first result here

ft Five reasons lockdown might be coming earlier - Google Search

www.google.com

In particular this looks promising

 

[andysays]

You won't believe number 4...

 

[Artaxerxes]

The UK’s second wave of coronavirus may not be worse than the first
Five reasons lockdown might be coming earlier in the virus’s cycle than in March and is likely to cause less economic pain

Everyone's already out of work

 

[frogwoman]

Not convinced by anything quoting Heneghan tbh. I do think tho that the rate appears to be rising slower than March if you look at the worldometers chart

 

[ska invita]

Everyone's already out of work

yes...why i said

Some very relative degree of good news

Not convinced by anything quoting Heneghan tbh.

Theres nothing in that piece which rests on Heneghan - his name comes up in relation to the range of projections. That section isnt trying to convince of one truth, more show the landscape of projections

 

[frogwoman]

Fair enough. It's going to be a long few months,

 

[killer b]

If your 'range of projections' includes a comment from someone who one month ago was claiming there's no evidence of a second wave, then I guess you can probably discount his end of the range.

 

[ska invita]

If your 'range of projections' includes a comment from someone who one month ago was claiming there's no evidence of a second wave, then I guess you can probably discount his end of the range.

have you read the piece? what bit of it are you disagreeing with?

 

[killer b]

The bit where they quote Carl Heneghan without mentioning he's a shameless hustler.

I did read the piece earlier, but none of it's really stuck in my mind enough to disagree with other than that guy.

 

[TopCat]

The lockdown is too short to make any real difference. The government insists on keeping major channels of infection open in schools and universities. There is no reasonable track and trace system or a testing regime which would identify precisely the nodes of contagion. It's all grasping at straws in the dark while billions of pounds of taxpayers' money are spaffed into Johnson's mates' pockets. And we have yet to see how the virus really transmits in the cold. There'll be an extension. Because what else can they do, admit their utter incompetence?

Good summary.

 

[ska invita]

The bit where they quote Carl Heneghan without mentioning he's a shameless hustler.

I did read the piece earlier, but none of it's really stuck in my mind enough to disagree with other than that guy.

The only mention he has in the article is not in any claims he is making now or has made, but as set up for a comment from Neil Ferguson. He's completely irrelevant in the statistical information being presented in the article

 

[frogwoman]

It was talking about how 'epidemiologists disagree' iirc he isn't one. I don't know about the rest of the article tho

 

[Pickman's model]

Everyone's already out of work

posting sadly from work

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 237107

the worst of all worlds, where no one can plan for reopening at the end of this because the government say they'll review the position the day the lockdown is supposed to end.

 

[TopCat]

the worst of all worlds, where no one can plan for reopening at the end of this because the government say they'll review the position the day the lockdown is supposed to end.

They may review during lockdown if we reach a "bring out yer dead" situation.

 

[prunus]

They may review during lockdown if we reach a "bring out yer dead" situation.

“I’m getting better!”

 

[frogwoman]

At this point it's not even trying to reduce the virus, just keep ICUs from collapse. I saw the slug claimed that humanity has 'defeated every other infectious disease'.