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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

littlebabyjesus said:
Bonkers, innit. As they were saying that, epidemiologists around the world were screaming at them that it was nonsense, that herd immunity is something that will happen eventually, but is not something you ever plan for. I was complacent as well, I admit, but I'm not government.
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I went to my GP on 12th March for a repeat prescription and asked for more meds than 2 months in case the NHS became overwhelmed and had no appointments. He laughed and said 'oh we'll be fine we just need everyone to get it and we'll be ok by May' I was like WTF?
 
elbows said:
Some of the dodgy stuff had such a short shelf-life though, the 4 weeks claim was never going to stand up to even a week or twos passage of time. They had to change it themselves, I think it lasted about 4 days before they changed it to '3 weeks plus London a bit ahead', which was probably their way of changing it to 2 weeks without saying so.

Oh well, may as well stick in a few more things from the period. Peston during the vanishingly brief period when the herd immunity strategy was the idea to be sold to everyone:

www.itv.com

British government wants UK to acquire Covid-19 'herd immunity' | ITV News

The Government’s experts – the chief medical officer and the chief scientific advisor – have made two big judgements. | ITV National News
www.itv.com www.itv.com
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Gets more incredible more I read it. The article he linked says the precise opposite of what he claims: WHO explicitly say the spread of coronavirus can be controlled. Then there's this:-
...
the kind of coercive measures employed by China in Wuhan and Hubei have simply locked the virus behind the closed doors of people’s homes.

And just as soon as the constraints on freedom of movement are lifted there, the monstrous virus will rear its hideous face again.
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That's not how viruses work! If they're starved of hosts, they die, and the epidemic ends. Neither SARS nor MERS became endemic to the populations of countries with outbreaks. That's why China separated the sick from their families. At most, he's got grounds to advocate keeping people locked down until they're all tested.

Peston's a fiercely intelligent guy, yet he got suckered, and appears not to've sought expert opinion before filing. Terrifying just how easy it is for disinformation to spread.
 
Miss-Shelf said:
I went to my GP on 12th March for a repeat prescription and asked for more meds than 2 months in case the NHS became overwhelmed and had no appointments. He laughed and said 'oh we'll be fine we just need everyone to get it and we'll be ok by May' I was like WTF?
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Also spare a thought for the handful of people on this very forum who picked days during the March 11th-16th political bonfire of the orthodoxies to tell us all how much they trusted the government and the government experts. Deference in action. Deference inaction. I rejected their viewpoint at the time, but little did any of us realise quite how bad their timing was to turn out to be, or how quickly this point would be demonstrated.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
He is? Maybe in a lawyery kind of way.
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He's certainly got quite the resume and has done a lotta groundbreaking work in economics reporting. At the least, he should've been able to spot the grave weaknesses in the stated plan and known to seek expert advice. Or, well, read his own link. :D
 
Azrael said:
He's certainly got quite the resume and has done a lotta groundbreaking work in economics reporting. At the least, he should've been able to spot the grave weaknesses in the stated plan and known to seek expert advice. Or, well, read his own link. :D
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And compare to the tune he started singing by Sunday evening:

#1,578
 
elbows said:
Also spare a thought for the handful of people on this very forum who picked days during the March 11th-16th political bonfire of the orthodoxies to tell us all how much they trusted the government and the government experts.
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And to those people I would like to thank them for not exploding with rage at my occasional references to this. I am hoping that I have got this period of recent history out of my system now, and that when the broader subject comes up in future, I wont feel like repeating myself again and again. I cannot sustain this level of repetition. If circumstances force me to address the issues of this period again, I will leave these references to what some people said on the forum out of it.
 
Azrael said:
Peston's a fiercely intelligent guy, yet he got suckered, and appears not to've sought expert opinion before filing. Terrifying just how easy it is for disinformation to spread.
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The daily press conferences are a good idea - but the media outlets seem to be only sending along their political/economic generalists. All the big ones have specialist science journos - why aren't they questioning the CSA and CMO who are attending most of them (obvs no point questioning the PM)
 
elbows said:
Also spare a thought for the handful of people on this very forum who picked days during the March 11th-16th political bonfire of the orthodoxies to tell us all how much they trusted the government and the government experts. Deference in action. Deference inaction. I rejected their viewpoint at the time, but little did any of us realise quite how bad their timing was to turn out to be, or how quickly this point would be demonstrated.
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Yes, maybe there was deference full stop, but I also thought some posters were so keen to reject the more critical accounts of our government and its motivations that they ended up seeming to argue that our government was being guided by a 'value free science' (yuk). Fwiw, I don't go with the line that Johnson was happy to kill off the over 70s on this, though he and his ilk have been killing the poor for years. However I am convinced there was a big fat neo-liberal game in play of 'not panicking', for long term political gain and to secure an advantage over competitors (itself a lingering effect of his get Brexit done mindset). What 'science', in the form of his top advisors, didn't do was manage to speak truth to cunts, or at least have the guts to go with what was a growing scientific consensus. Both they and Johnson are hiding behind the Imperial College research and may find it doesn't even reach up to their nasties:

Richard Horton | The Guardian

<p>Richard Horton is a doctor and edits the Lancet</p>
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
TheHoodedClaw said:
The daily press conferences are a good idea - but the media outlets seem to be only sending along their political/economic generalists. All the big ones have specialist science journos - why aren't they questioning the CSA and CMO who are attending most of them (obvs no point questioning the PM)
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They seem to have marginalised the two science/medical guys since their advice was proven to be categorically incorrect
 
Petcha said:
They seem to have marginalised the two science/medical guys since their advice was proven to be categorically incorrect
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Not sure about that. Before this week there were not daily briefings, and the briefings didnt involve special guest stars like the chancellor. So the failure of Whitty and Vallance to be there every single day is not necessarily indicative of much, need to wait for other signs.
 
Nick Triggle alert:

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll

The rising number of coronavirus deaths is distressing. But what are the figures actually telling us?
www.bbc.co.uk

The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.

Given that the old and frail are the most vulnerable, would these people be dying anyway?

Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.
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There are, of course, other factors at play here. Left unchecked, the deaths would come very quickly.

The 500,000 deaths could all occur in the UK by August, the modellers said.

This in itself would overwhelm the health service - if they were right - putting even more lives at risk, because care would not be available for others.

But there is certainly evidence to suggest the modellers have underestimated the ability of the NHS to increase intensive care capacity.
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NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens suggested intensive care capacity could be doubled, after this modelling came out.

What else has not been done is a proper assessment of the economic and social costs of the measures taken, which themselves will put lives and health at risk.

As we get deeper into this crisis, we will need much greater intelligence on just how many lives are truly being saved, and compare that to the wider cost to society, so the government and the public can weigh up the best course of action.
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Same guy that was telling us we should get on with our lives on March 13th. #1,164
By the way I think his analysis that I quoted on March 13th in that previous post was removed from the BBC article of the time, but there are still traces of it to be found elsewhere on the net.
 
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Nine Bob Note said:
Tremendous news about the wages guarantee. I get to go back to work on Sunday for my £9p/h, whilst those with the best (and strangely non-essential) jobs can sit at home receiving £2500 a month from our newly socialist chancellor :thumbs:
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I thought that was largely to cover pub, restaurant, hotel workers, etc. who mostly weren't making anything near £2500 a month to start with - it's going to be especially tough for anybody who relied on tips as part of their income.
 
Amazing how this messes with your head. I've constantly flipped from 'they know what their doing' to 'that's a bit crazy' to 'fuck me they're out of their depth' to 'it'll be alright' to 'they've really fucked up here' on and on. Even only yesterday I said 'they haven't enabled a disaster' to 'Yes they have' to 'is enabled really the right word though?'

The 'herd immunity' thing was worse though, felt like two sides of my brain were thinking the opposite to each other at the same time.

I think the lack of folk memory of SARS and the like is absolutely key to the west's complacency in general. Myself and lots of people I knew were just thinking it was another SARS thing that will come to nothing. I started taking it seriously two weeks ago but at the same time thought the government would get on top of it all pretty quickly. It's a sense of disbelief and denial that they could fuck it up but I guess we'll soon find out to what extent all this plays out now.

Nice one for going over previous quotes, elbows. That's been really useful.
 
Having not panic bought I'm getting low food, no tomatoes, frozen peas, eggs or soya milk. At this point I'd probably go to the supermarket àfter work but the shops are empty then.

I'm still working for now and can't go early and my partner has panic attacks in queues and crowds. Think we'll have some odd meals for a whole. I'm getting worried that I'll never be able to buy eggs again.
 
keybored said:
GPS accuracy is around 4m, giving a margin of error that would make pinning some kind of "Breach of social distancing" charge on any individual unlikely. Cell tower triangulation accuracy is 150m at best.

I suppose you could argue that it could be used to track and stop people moving between urban areas, but you have to wonder who is going to process all this information during times like this.

Where do you hear this stuff, I'd love to subscribe for the comedy value.
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There's serious ongoing discussion about mobile tracking. It's obviously not going to tell you whether people are staying 2m apart but it absolutely could tell you to what degree people are staying at home and obeying advisories. I'm sure there are plenty of people who could rapidly analyse it.

It's a bit of a waste of time though IMO because it doesn't matter what level of passive compliance is being generated; it's clear that the country should stop fucking about trying to nudge people and actively enforce serious measures as appropriate.
 
I initially didn't understand the severity of this - was slightly bemuses by the intensity of the reaction in china etc. But it was reading urban that made me realise that it was the rate of infection that made this so serious. Johnsons and co dont have that excuse - it was there job to understand what the implications were and what should be done - and they are surrounded by people with serous expertise in these matters.
I flew back into the manchester airport from Cyprus two weeks ago after a week away - and i was shocked by the utter lack of any controls or warnings. The only indication of a looming public health emergency was a hand written note saying "wash your hands" that the cabin crew had put up inside the airplane toilet - attached with little stickers saying "50%" off. Pretty much from that moment i have gone from shaking my head to literally crying in despair at the governments reluctance to take this seriously.
I think this absolutely comes from Johnson - and the mindset of his peers in government - a pooh poohing of health and safety restrictions, wilful ignorance towards troublesome details, a disdain for the "nanny state".

And very much this -

Wilf said:
I don't go with the line that Johnson was happy to kill off the over 70s on this, though he and his ilk have been killing the poor for years. However I am convinced there was a big fat neo-liberal game in play of 'not panicking', for long term political gain and to secure an advantage over competitors (itself a lingering effect of his get Brexit done mindset).
Click to expand...

Hence the utter lack of preparation and contingency planning - for which we about to pay a deadly price. What baffles me is why the public health professionals went along with this - surely they must have been modelling. Why weren't - at the very least - pressing for extensive testing, a rapid expansion of critical care capacity, measures to prevent panic buying and a major public information campaign (still bafflingly absent). Yesterday they called up thousands of retired nurses and GPs - yesterday. Like so much else - it should have been done weeks ago.

We've got 5 more years of this cunt in power when the whole world is facing its biggest disruption since WW2. Now we find out that actually the character of the person in charge during a crises has huge implications. Lick spittles of the capitalist system they may have been - but I would give my right arm for Obama and Brown to be at the helm right now.
 
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planetgeli said:
www.theguardian.com

Cornwall fears influx of 'out-of-towners' will overwhelm NHS services

Council, health body and tourist board urge people to stay away but roads from London to the south-west were busy on Friday
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Calling Voley

Some second homes need burning.
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It's a real worry. And not just because of the virus spreading. Sainsbury's delivery guy I spoke to yesterday said first thing second home owners do on arrival is a massive food shop.

Germany have already told people they're not allowed to travel to their second home. We should do the same.
 
Kaka Tim said:
I initially didn't understand the severity of this - was slightly bemuses by the intensity of the reaction in china etc. But it was reading urban that made me realise that it was the rate of infection that made this so serious. Johnsons and co dont have that excuse - it was there job to understand what the implications were and what should be done - and they are surrounded by people with serous expertise in these matters.
I flew back into the manchester airport from Cyprus two weeks ago after a week away - and i was shocked by the utter lack of any controls or warnings. The only indication of a looming public health emergency was a hand written not saying "wash your hands" that the cabin crew had put up inside the airplane toilet - attached with little stickers saying "50%" off. Pretty much from that moment i have been shaking my head at the governments reluctance to take this seriously.
I think this absolutely comes from Johnson - and the mindset of his peers in government - a pooh poohing of health and safety restrictions, wilful ignorance towards troublesome details, a disdain for the "nanny state".

And very much this -



Hence the utter lack of preparation and contingency planning - for which we about to pay a deadly price. What baffles me is why the public health professionals went along with this - surely they must have been modelling. Why weren't - at the very least - pressing for extensive testing, a rapid expansion of critical care capacity, measures to prevent panic buying and a major public information campaign (still bafflingly absent). Yesterday they called up thousands of retired nurses and GPs - yesterday. Like so much else - it should have been done weeks ago.

We've got 5 more years of this cunt in power when the whole world is facing its biggest disruption since WW2. Now we find out that actually the character of the person in charge during a crises has huge implications. Lick spittles of the capitalist system they may have been - but I would give my right arm for Obama and Brown to be at the helm right now.
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I’m a thicko in all these things. May I ask why Obama and Brown Kaka Tim
 
Numbers said:
I’m a thicko in all these things. May I ask why Obama and Brown Kaka Tim
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Because they were serious minded, highly intelligent people who could process information - and who would have devoted every waking minute to get on top of this. E.g - they probably prevented the 2008 crash being far worse than it could have been. Right now i would rather have Thatcher in charge than Johnson.
 
Voley said:
It's a real worry. And not just because of the virus spreading. Sainsbury's delivery guy I spoke to yesterday said first thing second home owners do on arrival is a massive food shop.

Germany have already told people they're not allowed to travel to their second home. We should do the same.
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A French contact did a runner from Paris to the Gironde while he could - where the locals aren't happy -a lot of them elderly.
Not just to do with food supplies, but emergency services and hospitals - on a peninsula - so quite a haul from there to Bordeaux... and the fecking great estuary makes it a boat or helicopter ride to the nearer ones ..

He claimed he's allowed on the beach, but I have seen the instructions from the Mairie ...
 
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friendofdorothy said:
Having not panic bought I'm getting low food, no tomatoes, frozen peas, eggs or soya milk. At this point I'd probably go to the supermarket àfter work but the shops are empty then.

I'm still working for now and can't go early and my partner has panic attacks in queues and crowds. Think we'll have some odd meals for a whole. I'm getting worried that I'll never be able to buy eggs again.
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Have you got a milkman? Or local shop that will deliver? Or supermarket delivery?
 
elbows said:
Also spare a thought for the handful of people on this very forum who picked days during the March 11th-16th political bonfire of the orthodoxies to tell us all how much they trusted the government and the government experts. Deference in action. Deference inaction. I rejected their viewpoint at the time, but little did any of us realise quite how bad their timing was to turn out to be, or how quickly this point would be demonstrated.
Click to expand...

Some detail here in the internal debate within government: 10 Days That Changed Britain: "Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus

From that article: "While Downing Street’s deference to the experts won plaudits early on, this approach has turned out to be lacking, the ministers and MPs said, because the scientists themselves disagreed on what to do. One minister said that it was then the political responsibility of Johnson and Number 10 to decide which scientists to back, but described a 'vacuum of leadership' among aides. "

I know there aren't many David Cameron fans here, but in his autobiography this is something he covered when discussing his role as PM - that it's often thought the PM is mostly there to just make big decisions, but in fact its actually the questioning of official advice, seeking other opinions, keeping on and on at people, and offering new ideas that make the difference at pivotal moments.
 
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keybored said:
GPS accuracy is around 4m, giving a margin of error that would make pinning some kind of "Breach of social distancing" charge on any individual unlikely. Cell tower triangulation accuracy is 150m at best.

I suppose you could argue that it could be used to track and stop people moving between urban areas, but you have to wonder who is going to process all this information during times like this.

Where do you hear this stuff, I'd love to subscribe for the comedy value.
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It must have been a mainstream news bulletin, possibly BBC News 24 .. they didn't go on about it though, just a mention.
 
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