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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

yeah it's a misreading of some stats rather than the stats being wrong or made up. You'd have though that a better attempt to explain what 'sites of multiple outbreaks' means might be made, as it's not totally obvious from the original data and angry landlords have been posting these figures for months now...
 
The actual stats can be found in the weekly report:

"The denominator (the overall number of settings in each category) will differ by the setting category, for example there are fewer hospitals than workplaces, as will the propensity to report incidents to PHE. Therefore these data are more useful for monitoring trends over time than making comparisons across setting categories "


(page 19)
 
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killer b said:
yeah it's a misreading of some stats rather than the stats being wrong or made up. You'd have though that a better attempt to explain what 'sites of multiple outbreaks' means might be made, as it's not totally obvious from the original data and angry landlords have been posting these figures for months now...
Click to expand...

Exactly.

There are no proper stats that give us a clear and correct view of where infections are happening.

There is a bunch of data that attempts to explore the issue from a couple of angles, but it is not a definitive guide, and does not claim the things that some people think it claims.

Here is a different example, from the weekly surveillance report, in the additional graphs document. It does not claim that these locations are the source of infection, its just counting the events that people who've tested positive indulged in before testing positive. I would expect it to contain clues but the nature of such analysis only provides more quibble opportunities.

None of the data provides a reasonable basis for people to make arguments that the pubs should stay open.

Screenshot 2020-11-02 at 13.03.04.png
 
The only pubs I've noticed announcing outbreaks and closing are those who've had staff outbreaks, so I'm guessing those will make up the bulk of the 4% (or whatever it is this week)
 
killer b said:
The only pubs I've noticed announcing outbreaks and closing are those who've had staff outbreaks, so I'm guessing those will make up the bulk of the 4% (or whatever it is this week)
Click to expand...

We had a local news story where a pub shut as a punter tested positive. I suspect they would not have closed if test & trace hadnt contacted lots of their staff when tracing the contacts of the infected customer.

www.coventrytelegraph.net

Pub closes after punter tests positive Covid-19

It took the decision to close its doors for a week for the safety of staff and customers
www.coventrytelegraph.net www.coventrytelegraph.net
 
platinumsage said:
It's from this which is "sites of multiple outbreaks" that have been identified, which isn't the same thing as % of cases at all.
Click to expand...
It’s not a bad surrogate for cases, mind.

Whether or not the stats perfectly measure the origin of cases is really of less matter than what you do with the information, though.

Firstly, “education“ includes universities, which I think many of us already agreed should be shut for face to face lectures and already thought it crazy that were in residence to students.

Secondly, when I hear that 4% of cases originate in hospitality, it makes me think it is worth closing hospitality because it reduces the R by 4%, more or less. It certainly doesn’t make me think it’s not worth doing anything unless we do everything.
 
I wont be able to see the next batch of NHS staff absences due to COVID (positive or self-isolating) until the data is published on November 12th (final spreadsheet tab, COVID Absences, from the monthly spreadsheet at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity ) but in the meantime Shaun Lintern has seen leaked data:

www.independent.co.uk

Tens of thousands of NHS staff off sick because of Covid-19, data reveals

Exclusive: Almost half of all staff absence linked to coronavirus in parts of northern England
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

More than a third of Friday’s total, 27,136, were off work because they were either infected with coronavirus or forced to self-isolate.

In total 9,137 nurses were off work because of Covid, along with 7,273 other clinical staff such as care assistants. Also hit by Covid-19 were 2,000 doctors and 1,580 allied health professionals such as physiotherapists and paramedics.

In the northwest region, almost 17,000 staff were absent, with 7,459 linked to Covid, 44 per cent of the total. This was mirrored in Lancashire, South Cumbria, Greater Manchester, the northeast and Yorkshire, where Covid related absences were all more than 40 per cent.

In Nottingham, almost 48 per cent of staff absences were linked to Covid, with 1,300 off work.

These absences come on top of an existing 100,000 vacancies for NHS roles, including almost 40,000 nurse vacancies before the pandemic.
Click to expand...
 
I will be able to semi-retire from pandemic commentary at this rate.

www.independent.co.uk

NHS to target risk of Covid outbreaks on wards after watchdog investigation

Safety watchdog warns of risk to staff and patients from poor hospital design
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

NHS England has started publishing weekly rates of coronavirus cases caught by patients and staff in hospitals and will target those NHS trusts with high rates for investigation.

It comes as a new report by the Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch warned hospital staff and patients were at risk from being infected because they were forced to congregate in areas to use computers, access records and take breaks.
Click to expand...

The risk of coronavirus spreading in hospitals, known as nosocomial transmission, has been highlighted by the government scientific advisers who estimated up to 20 per cent of hospital Covid cases were caught in hospital, including 11 per cent of hospitals deaths linked to the virus.
Click to expand...

In its report, published on Thursday, the safety body said it had “identified evidence to suggest that people were being admitted to hospital without signs of Covid-19 and by the time they were discharged, or soon after, they had contracted Covid-19.”

It added the risks of spreading the virus between staff who had no symptoms was not “always well understood”.

It added problems with “hospital design” increased the risk of the virus spreading in hospitals.
Click to expand...

In response to the report NHS England said: “Data on nosocomial transmission rates would begin to be published on a weekly basis” adding: “Data will be reviewed to allow targeted investigation of known nosocomial hot-spots.”
Click to expand...

The HSIB report is here, I havent had a chance to read it yet:Final report - Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch
 
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Orang Utan said:
and this is how you're measuring it? ffs!
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You don't think demographics are significant ?
I was always surprised that even back in the spring there were unmasked elderly people shopping in there.
I wore a mask right from the start and with the shit being propagated now, I may start upping my game to protect myself rather than just looking out for others ...
 
elbows said:
I'm tentatively assuming that editor is referring to the idea that if the authorities in England had gone for a circuit breaker when they should have, the measures England is finally getting would not have needed to be in place for so long. But I'm only guessing.
Click to expand...
Yep. England dithered and dithered until a longer, more damaging lockdown became inevitable.
 
gentlegreen said:
You don't think demographics are significant ?
I was always surprised that even back in the spring there were unmasked elderly people shopping in there.
I wore a mask right from the start and with the shit being propagated now, I may start upping my game to protect myself rather than just looking out for others ...
Click to expand...
i don't think one oddball observing whether people are wearing masks in one shop can extract anything meaningful about demographics
 
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