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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Proper Tidy said:
No, it's a coronavirus. Like lots of others that affect people, but which don't have a significant mortality rate because inevitably life, naturally and through medical intervention, adapts to viruses like viruses adapt and mutate to life. The issue is how long until we get to that point and how severe the effects are in the meantime. Don't be a dick, it's not helpful. Dick.
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Yep. 'Everybody hide behind your 4 walls' only works if there was an astonishing state response to organise society, that society was itself equal and resilient, we were used to caring for each other etc. So little of that is in place and we've got a government that combines not actually giving a fuck about society with having the worst ideological disposition for a crisis of this kind. If there are going to be healthy, supportive impulses, they'll have to be built from the bottom up. Trouble is 'social distancing' isn't the ideal situation for that to begin. This is going to become very bad on a number of levels.
 
DexterTCN said:
Telling people to take personal responsibility in the current situation is not being a dick.

Dismissing it...well I'll leave that to everyone else.
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No issue with telling people to take personal responsibility, do have an issue with somebody ploughing into a thread to give it the hellfire and brimstone we're all going to die shit. Fair enough probably an issue with tone rather than content but people don't need to be shouted at right now
 
kropotkin said:
We don't have the reagents to waste them on that. People need to take responsibility and if they might have it need to self isolate especially if symptomatic - as in the public health advice.
Even our sick hospitalised patients aren't getting tests turned around quickly enough to facilitate safe care currently. Those well enough to be in the community need to assume they have it and act accordingly. It would be great if we could rapidly test everyone as soon as a cough or a fever emerged (then in healthcare the non -coronavirus causes could be identified and those people brought back to work to keep helping). We also don't know the rate of false negatives yet. We do know that a less than vigorous swabbing in influenza can give a false negative, so with coronavirus we are doing four (two nasal and two throat)
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would you say it was wise for people to self-isolate before they have symptoms if they have regular/daily contact with people who are at risk? of course, this is impossible in health and social services, but I'm worrying that my work will either stop paying me or start paying SSP, cos then I'd have to go back to work.
 
First of all, it's a Tory government, they only know how to communicate through leaks.

Secondly, who gives a shit if it's an exclusive, people should be terrified.

The British govt's response thus far has been the worst in the world. I mean, fuck the US isn't doing great, but even the US is taking significant action.
 
Well the worst case assumptions they are describing are another indication of what we face if the UK orthodoxy wins on this one. Its not just these current Tories, its years of assumptions that have ended up baked into the thinking of influential people in other public health, planning and response roles. Its what happens when you stick with influenza pandemic assumptions and plans and ignore key early lessons from some other countries in response to the coronavirus.

The backlash against the approach so far has forced a new communications approach (daily briefings), and may have brought forward their timetable on certain measures. But I dont see any signs yet that it has succeeded in dislodging the orthodox thinking in terms of the approach to testing, contact tracing and actually containing the virus rather than letting it burn.

www.theguardian.com

Coronavirus: health experts fear epidemic will ‘let rip’ through UK

Doctors and scientists urge government to stop ignoring strategies from countries that have brought cases down
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Anthony Costello, a UK paediatrician and former director of the World Health Organization (WHO), said he had personally written to the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, asking for testing to continue in the community.

“The key principles from WHO are intensive surveillance,” he told the Guardian. “You test the population like crazy, find out where the cases are, immediately quarantine them and do contact tracing and get them out of the community. This deals with family clusters. That’s the key bedrock of getting this under control.”
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This was how South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan had brought their case numbers down. “You can really take people out of the population and make sure they are quarantined. That is vital – before you get to social distancing.”

Yet the UK government was stopping tests outside of hospital. “For me and the WHO people I have spoken to, this is absolutely the wrong policy. It would mean it just lets rip,” he said.
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Costello thinks we will be in the same position as Italy within two weeks. “The basic public health approach is playing second fiddle to mathematical modelling,” he said.
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Although since I've gone on about EU documents and how similar they are to the UK approach (leaving aside last weeks UK botched comms, herd immunity crapfest, and actual timing of measures), it may be unfair to call it UK orthodoxy. But the degree to which other countries in europe ditch aspects of the old orthodoxy compared to the UK could lead to more notable differences quite quickly.

Anyway, I mention this because the EU docs do include stuff to do with limiting your testing regime if testing capacity is too limited to sustain it. Which does make me think that perhaps all the attention on the UK testing policy now may be unfairly missing out info regarding what the testing picture is like in various EU countries.

If there are people here that have a little time and the appropriate language skills, I would really like to know what sort of testing and contact tracing of milder, community cases is still being attempted in Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Are there stories that shed light on their testing capacity, or stories about any of these countries having to change testing approach recently?
 
Fez909 said:
I can't quite believe this.

So we're asking now if anyone knows anyone who can build ventilators? And give us a bell if so. We'll see if we can come to an arrangement - two weeks before we're at the start a systematic healthcare breakdown?
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Next: asking if anyone knows who can supply intensive care beds and doctors/nurses, who can supply toilet rolls :thumbs:
 
elbows said:
Well the worst case assumptions they are describing are another indication of what we face if the UK orthodoxy wins on this one. Its not just these current Tories, its years of assumptions that have ended up baked into the thinking of influential people in other public health, planning and response roles. Its what happens when you stick with influenza pandemic assumptions and plans and ignore key early lessons from some other countries in response to the coronavirus.

The backlash against the approach so far has forced a new communications approach (daily briefings), and may have brought forward their timetable on certain measures. But I dont see any signs yet that it has succeeded in dislodging the orthodox thinking in terms of the approach to testing, contact tracing and actually containing the virus rather than letting it burn.
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Oh good, those dots have been joined:



 
elbows said:
Although since I've gone on about EU documents and how similar they are to the UK approach (leaving aside last weeks UK botched comms, herd immunity crapfest, and actual timing of measures), it may be unfair to call it UK orthodoxy. But the degree to which other countries in europe ditch aspects of the old orthodoxy compared to the UK could lead to more notable differences quite quickly.

Anyway, I mention this because the EU docs do include stuff to do with limiting your testing regime if testing capacity is too limited to sustain it. Which does make me think that perhaps all the attention on the UK testing policy now may be unfairly missing out info regarding what the testing picture is like in various EU countries.

If there are people here that have a little time and the appropriate language skills, I would really like to know what sort of testing and contact tracing of milder, community cases is still being attempted in Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Are there stories that shed light on their testing capacity, or stories about any of these countries having to change testing approach recently?
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A quick google of the term "Kontaktpersonen ermitteln coronavirus" (contact tracing), brings up stories from regional newspapers from all over Germany that mention new cases testing positive and that their contacts are being traced in order for them to go into quarantine/self-isolation. These articles were from the last 2 -5 days.

Interesting article in this context from Munich talks about developing ideas for widening testing capacity locally, this is from two days ago, and emphasis seems very much on continued tracing and quarantine, under the heading "Health authorities and municipalities jointly develop a pilot scheme" (though I don't know how representative this is as it's literally just from a first google hit).

ETA: God, google translate is good these days. Just put the article in to see if it made any sense, but it's pretty much a perfect translation:
"The number of people infected with coronavirus in the district is increasing steadily. The health department is now working closely with the local authorities to contain the virus. Infected and contact persons should in future be able to be tested for the virus in decentralized test centers. In order to slow the spread of the corona virus, all forces should now be concentrated. The district office in Munich got all municipalities on board and developed a two-stage model project. This morning, the responsible persons from the municipalities and the health department exchanged information with District Administrator Christoph Göbel in Unterhaching. On-site test centers In a first step, test centers are to be set up in as many cities and municipalities as possible, in which, with the voluntary participation of the local medical profession, smears are carried out and patients and contact persons are identified and cared for. The test centers can be designed differently. Self-tests, for example, are also conceivable, in which affected citizens can take a smear independently according to instructions and under professional supervision. The advantage of this procedure is that protective equipment would not have to be used to such a high degree. Of course, all activities take place in an exchange with the responsible experts in the health department. Extended arm of the health department Another task that municipalities will support the health department in the future is contact person management. At its core, it is about identifying Category I contacts and providing them with the necessary information - for example regarding quarantine to be observed, keeping a fever diary or behavior when symptoms occur, etc. The aim is to find the contact persons even faster in order to slow the spread of the virus. The municipalities act here as health officials. The statutory reporting obligation of the medical profession to the health authority remains unaffected. "Working closely with the municipalities, we developed a model project that enables us to identify the contact persons even faster and to provide them with important information. My sincere thanks go to all those involved on site who support us with a lot of commitment and full strength in coping with current events, ”explains District Administrator Christoph Göbel. "By creating decentralized self-test centers, we also want to relieve the local doctors by pooling capacities and using protective clothing to conserve resources." "

Another article from Berlin from today is an appeal for contacts of a positive tested person who were in a particular night club at a particular time under reference to the ongoing containment strategy.

So while containment strategy still seems to be ongoing, I was shocked how lax/late Germany seemed to be in suggesting any kind of social distancing - for example my brother who commutes for an hour and a half each day in one of the most populous states with the most cases and who works in a job that lends itself easily to working from home, will only start working from home from tomorrow.
 
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Someone on one of the local mutual aid groups is really annoying me...he is insisting that there should be teams of temperature testers at the entrance of every single tube/train station in Greater London checking people and turning them away if they seem to have a temperature. I know it sounds like a common sense idea but there are 5 million tube journeys per day alone and the temperature check isn't reliable because you could be incubating and not showing symptoms...he won't have it. :facepalm:
 
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