ricbake
working out how
Of course everything is going to plan
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Ah ok. Things are going better than planned then! Great stuff.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
this is well out of order
ricbake
working out how
But it is 12 weeks from the date if they had introduce lockdown they could have avoided perhaps 30,000 deaths - but maybe they do have a plan...
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
I'm guardedly ok with relaxing lockdown on the super lockdown cases, which I always thought were a bit indiscriminate anyway.
I'm more concerned about trying to open schools tomorrow which is fucking insane. Literally the last thing you do when you are sure the situation is manageable. It's worse than the encouragement to go back to work, but it fits right in to the neoliberal thicko gameplan.
I'm more concerned about trying to open schools tomorrow which is fucking insane. Literally the last thing you do when you are sure the situation is manageable. It's worse than the encouragement to go back to work, but it fits right in to the neoliberal thicko gameplan.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
More conspiracy theorist than cynic imo. They're not evil geniuses they're a bunch of useless twats. This stuff is more about image IMO - the countries whose governments' have a handle on this are relaxing restrictions, they want to be seen as doing well, therefore they're doing the same and crossing their fingers it works out OK.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Everyone is pointing out beaches and parks and stuff. Clearly, if people were catching it and dying in hours. Everywhere would be deserted.
Humans are sociable, pandemics hit at the tenents of being human. Solitary confinement is a prison punishment for a reason. The country has been under lockdown for 10 weeks now. There is a point where people can't keep that up, people are going stir crazy and we are seeing those cracks appear. At the start of the lockdown, I would have been angry, but now you really can't blame anyone. I'm feeling it as much as they are.
The government are at fault for this too, bungled from start to finish. If they had got on top of it at the start we'd not been under lockdown for 10 weeks and counting.
I'm really hopeful that the camping is going to happen in July.
Humans are sociable, pandemics hit at the tenents of being human. Solitary confinement is a prison punishment for a reason. The country has been under lockdown for 10 weeks now. There is a point where people can't keep that up, people are going stir crazy and we are seeing those cracks appear. At the start of the lockdown, I would have been angry, but now you really can't blame anyone. I'm feeling it as much as they are.
The government are at fault for this too, bungled from start to finish. If they had got on top of it at the start we'd not been under lockdown for 10 weeks and counting.
I'm really hopeful that the camping is going to happen in July.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing there will turn out to be multiple reasons for the better situation in Germany. I expect you will recall from our previous conversations on related matters that I generally assume that timing of their measures relative to the size & stage of their epidemic was a big key. And that I am also extremely interested in population susceptibility levels and other factors that seem to make some people immune from either catching the disease or having symptoms if they do catch it. And why Germany has less winter excess mortality in general (if that is even true, I still havent studied it).
Before I take my summer break from the subject, I do intend to have another stab at finding prior research into the stuff he is calling immunological dark matter. Last time I looked was years ago and I think I probably just got disgusted with how little interest in the subject there had been over many decades. It reminded me of some of the establishment expert reaction to issues with this coronavirus and asymptomatic cases, there was an instinct to downplay such aspects even though, or perhaps because, there were large implications from the asymptomatic cases being infectious. There has been a real lack of curiosity about this and other subjects and a disservice has been done to humanity as a result. Perhaps that will be corrected as a result of this pandemic.
As for whether the first wave is over no matter what, this is another subject I need to brush up on before I have a rest. Such things have influenced my attitude in recent weeks for sure, it was one of the big reasons I havent thought it appropriate to fret and shout about a second wave at the moment. But then this isnt enough on its own to counterbalance some of the inept and risky stuff the government has been indulging in of late, and some of what we are seeing sections of the public doing these days.
Part of the reason I'm in the dark on that crucial matter is that I'm used to seeing epidemic curves that were not altered by forms of heavy mitigation, social distancing and lockdown. So I'm seeing more along the lines of 'natural' epidemic waves, and things like seasonality. I think I need to look at the 2009 swine flu curves again because there was a school summer holiday in between two of those that could be said to have been equivalent to deliberate mitigation.
My current understanding is just not good enough because at his exact moment I would not be surprised by either outcome - it would not surprise me at all if no fresh wave emerged in June, but neither would it surprise me if things did start going in the wrong direction by some stage in June. Thats not much use. Not that I'm convinced further research on my part will make this stuff any clearer.
Looby
Well-Known Member
I don’t blame people for wanting to get out and about, I don’t blame them for going to beaches and parks.
I am furious that people have been allowed to travel as far as they want for leisure. There should be strict limits imo and certainly not out of their own county.
Dorset was rammed today, worse than August bank holiday time.
Cars were double parked, on grass verges, on double yellows and bus stops.
I struggled to get my car through at times so emergency services certainly would have.
Huge groups of people meeting up. I saw a fucking minibus full of people.
There’ll be litter everywhere for council staff to clean up tomorrow and people (who haven’t parked like cunts) will be crammed onto the buses which are still on a reduced service.
We’re not set up for this, staff are still reduced, sick, shielding and they won’t have recruited the summer temp staff yet. Locals were out helping rangers at Lulworth yesterday managing the crowds and car parks. And again today there were fucking idiots climbing Durdle Door.
There were almost certainly a huge amount of visitors from out of Dorset today, the queues on the A31 confirm it and it shouldn’t be happening.
This is a central reservation on the beach road. Just cars dumped anywhere. I’ve never ever seen that before.
I am furious that people have been allowed to travel as far as they want for leisure. There should be strict limits imo and certainly not out of their own county.
Dorset was rammed today, worse than August bank holiday time.
Cars were double parked, on grass verges, on double yellows and bus stops.
I struggled to get my car through at times so emergency services certainly would have.
Huge groups of people meeting up. I saw a fucking minibus full of people.
There’ll be litter everywhere for council staff to clean up tomorrow and people (who haven’t parked like cunts) will be crammed onto the buses which are still on a reduced service.
We’re not set up for this, staff are still reduced, sick, shielding and they won’t have recruited the summer temp staff yet. Locals were out helping rangers at Lulworth yesterday managing the crowds and car parks. And again today there were fucking idiots climbing Durdle Door.
There were almost certainly a huge amount of visitors from out of Dorset today, the queues on the A31 confirm it and it shouldn’t be happening.
This is a central reservation on the beach road. Just cars dumped anywhere. I’ve never ever seen that before.
Attachments
MrSki
Who am I to say you're wrong
Fair point. The hundred thousand + they killed with austerity were not their voters but I doubt that many of the shielded are either. Apart from distracting from the Cummings saga why did they announce late last night the lifting of shielding? Why not at the press briefing?
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Raheem
Well-Known Member
Well, might depend how the question is phrased. It might, for instance, start "Do we want to fall in line with a load of crypto-Marxist globalist hysteria and wander into a nightmare of radical interventionism or..."
elbows
Well-Known Member
I am a bit worried that after doing for the people in the care homes that they have now moved on to other costly members of society. Call me a cynic but I think herd immunity & wiping out the most costly members of society is still their masterplan.
I'd take at least one step back from that idea before thinking I might be onto something.
Its not so much about actively wanting to get rid of such members of society, but there are certainly judgements involved that are directly related to how much care and priority political parties, governments, economic systems and society as a whole point in that direction during normal times. There are loads of issues with care homes, and people with long-term disabilities and health issues and how that stuff is handled. Some of it is a long-standing national embarrassment. One where frank discussion and evaluation of 'our values' tends to be incomplete, where awkward truths are often left unsaid and low prioritisation of the elderly etc remains unscathed.
In terms of how much societies are prepared to spend in these areas, I actually think this pandemic might be used as a catalyst for care system change that was probably coming down the road anyway, even if we hadnt had this pandemic. Even though when I look at UK population pyramids these days I see that the low birth years of the mid-1970s have been rather compensated for via immigration, and the large baby boom bulges in the pyramid have been slightly reduced by deaths. But we are still only just getting to the stage where the eldest baby boomers are going to start becoming clients of the care system in ever increasing numbers, and that has all manner of implications. Costs in this area were bound to rise, and although a portion of that was going to be funded by wealth currently held by those same boomers, in some ways there was still going to need to be a recalibration of quite what priority and resource allocation society would need to settle on for the care sector soon enough.
As for herd immunity, rather embarrassingly when I go back and check forum posts for a crucial period in March, it seems I was going on about that subject and explaining the rationale for several days prior to the most famous examples of Vallance & co doing the same. I wonder what I was reading or listening to at the time, I doubt I plucked the idea out of thin air so I expect they had already been planting such seeds in press briefings prior to the doomed explicit description of building population immunity as a goal.
In any case, the use of herd immunity to try to justify their original shitty approach to the pandemic was a disgrace, as are some of the ideological positions that tried to make use of the concept to justify all sorts of shit. All the same, it remains of no surprise to me that there are also aspects of the concept which must be considered even when taking an approach that is far removed from the do little horror show shit. And there are all sorts of other variants, such as whether the NHS will feel like its in a very different situation if large chunks of its workforce have already been infected in a prior wave. The way most serology (antibody) results have been met with much disappointment also relates to this subject. Some of my future posts will hopefully go further in explaining what I'm on about with that.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Loads of people in the shielded cohort got texts last week saying they wouldn’t be getting the government food boxes any more. And I know for a fact that my own council is starting to means test people asking for help now. Times are gonna get harder soon for a lot of people
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
btw this is a great account from the ground from a volunteer who helps get food to those in need:
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Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
who’s fault is this?
Boris Johnson.
Once announced, some planning should have been done, most beaches can easily be closed.
Plus how sure are you it’s not just locals. People aren’t doing anything so even just a bunch of people from the local area can easily fill a beach.
plus there’s nowhere to stay. there are limits to people’s day trip travel time.
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Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
I am a bit worried that after doing for the people in the care homes that they have now moved on to other costly members of society. Call me a cynic but I think herd immunity & wiping out the most costly members of society is still their masterplan.
The masterplan of continuing to not give a shit about people? Evil geniuses the lot of them
elbows
Well-Known Member
This subject may cover aspects of herd immunity, antibody prevalence, and issues concerning whether this first wave is done, when we might see a second one. Its also an example of what I highly recommend doing in this phase - zoom in!
In this case, I suggest zooming in on aspects of the picture that give clues about who was driving the first epidemic wave, and people can then consider what implications this has for the future. I already mentioned immunity levels in healthcare workers after the first wave, this time I am looking elsewhere. It is often considered that the younger members of society are major drivers of respiratory diseases, even when the greatest burden of ill-health does not fall on that group. Its one of the reasons why, contrary to UK government bullshit, closing schools can be a real difference maker to epidemics.
This is from the last weekly Covid-19 national surveillance report ( National COVID-19 surveillance reports )
The sections based on the main testing regime and hospitalisations and deaths shows the usual pattern where it is figures in the older population that stand out. But when we reach the section on sero-prevalence (antibody testing), something quite different emerges:
This has implications for who was driving the disease in the last wave, who now has immunity, what impact that may have on the timing and nature of subsequent waves or upticks of other sorts. And there are aspects wee would miss out on entirely if we only looked at levels of antibodies as general numbers for the whole population or by region and not by age.
Other examples of zooming in would be looking at such rates in hospitals, but also doing a lot of work on understanding and beringing under control the transmission of the disease with healthcare settings. What has happened at Weston hospital recently is an example that to me looks like the sort of story that probably played out numerous times during the first peak, but where our testing regime and the severity of the situation at the time obscured our ability to spot and deal with such situations. Now that the overall levels of infection within the wider community are not skyrocketing upwards, there are more opportunities to for these hospital outbreaks to stick out and be dealt with.
In this case, I suggest zooming in on aspects of the picture that give clues about who was driving the first epidemic wave, and people can then consider what implications this has for the future. I already mentioned immunity levels in healthcare workers after the first wave, this time I am looking elsewhere. It is often considered that the younger members of society are major drivers of respiratory diseases, even when the greatest burden of ill-health does not fall on that group. Its one of the reasons why, contrary to UK government bullshit, closing schools can be a real difference maker to epidemics.
This is from the last weekly Covid-19 national surveillance report ( National COVID-19 surveillance reports )
The sections based on the main testing regime and hospitalisations and deaths shows the usual pattern where it is figures in the older population that stand out. But when we reach the section on sero-prevalence (antibody testing), something quite different emerges:
This has implications for who was driving the disease in the last wave, who now has immunity, what impact that may have on the timing and nature of subsequent waves or upticks of other sorts. And there are aspects wee would miss out on entirely if we only looked at levels of antibodies as general numbers for the whole population or by region and not by age.
Other examples of zooming in would be looking at such rates in hospitals, but also doing a lot of work on understanding and beringing under control the transmission of the disease with healthcare settings. What has happened at Weston hospital recently is an example that to me looks like the sort of story that probably played out numerous times during the first peak, but where our testing regime and the severity of the situation at the time obscured our ability to spot and deal with such situations. Now that the overall levels of infection within the wider community are not skyrocketing upwards, there are more opportunities to for these hospital outbreaks to stick out and be dealt with.
That was really worth a read and I'd recommend everyone does read it -- huge respect for anyone volunteering and working so hard like that.
I doubt I'd be able to deal with the minority of hostile people as well as Alan Lane seems to, tbh
But I bet he and his team get lots of appreciation too -- I feel like reading some other parts of his blog ASAP ....
elbows
Well-Known Member
Another example of zooming in comes from the same document that I linked to in my previous post, where they are looking at outbreaks in institutions that even the current system managed to identify.
I note that schools still manage to feature despite the relative lack of pupils.
I note that schools still manage to feature despite the relative lack of pupils.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
The Zoe application which I've got installed has showed a 17% reduction in new cases in the last week.
covid.joinzoe.com
It's looking like being outdoors isn't a huge risk or we'd be seeing a spike by now.
ZOE Health Study
Fight major diseases like COVID & cancer logging your health daily with millions of community scientists supporting global health research.
covid.joinzoe.com
It's looking like being outdoors isn't a huge risk or we'd be seeing a spike by now.
Looby
Well-Known Member
The poor planning and shit restrictions are the government’s fault. Parking like cunts, starting fires, behaving like twats- that’s the choice of the people visiting those places.
I’m fairly sure it’s not just locals because Bournemouth today was August bank holiday level of busy and more. This isn’t just normal busy, it’s insane. That’s not just locals. Most people I know aren’t going near the beaches because they can’t face it.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
I guess the government has abandoned this now then? we seem to have jumped from 4 to 1
ash
Inittogether
Cunts
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