Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Azrael]

Despite that I think Starmer is weary of politicising the pandemic as it would likely backfire on him - perfect example of this is in the US where the daily onslaught of media attacks on Trump are having the reverse intended effect.

Also understand that Boris has just recovered from the virus and may have a lot of support/public sympathy.

I think Starmer is keeping his powder dry and is probably wise to do so - reverence not rhetoric.

Unrelentingly pressuring Whitehall to adopt the safest exit strategy possible is probably the best thing Labour could be doing right now. Good that they've consistently raised contact tracing for weeks now, and Wales have published an exit plan based on it.

With "lockdown sceptics" getting louder by the day, polling producing worrying reports of the population being split between stoics and sufferers, and the undoubted health costs of lockdown, I remain extremely worried that it could collapse before a surveillance system's in place. If Labour help avert that calamity, all power to them.

 

[Chilli.s]

China, with its strict lockdown has now got daly new cases in the single figures. They are the example of how a lockdown can work, three months of harsh, but a result at the end. If we could struggle on till the end of June we could be in a similar position with only the ports as a way of reinfecting. I'm amazed the NHS has coped but worried that to sustain the level of workload for it may not be sensible.

 

[Azrael]

China, with its strict lockdown has now got daly new cases in the single figures. They are the example of how a lockdown can work, three months of harsh, but a result at the end. If we could struggle on till the end of June we could be in a similar position with only the ports as a way of reinfecting. I'm amazed the NHS has coped but worried that to sustain the level of workload for it may not be sensible.

Important to remember that even China, who takes centralization to the extreme of a national timezone over a good chunk of a continent, always took a regional approach, with the most Draconian lockdowns seen in Wuhan and Hubei.

So long as Whitehall sticks dogmatically to a one-size-fits-all "lockdown" across England in the name of national unity, there's no hope of replicating the Chinese containment model here. Imposing the measures needed to drive cases down to near elimination levels in major urban areas will never been accepted if they're also imposed in towns and villages which haven't seen a single case.

Best outcome I can see is an aggressive suppression system keeping the R rate below one and achieving a much slower decline.

 

[LDC]

Have the five tests now been slightly but significantly adjusted?

Exhibit A:

 

[LDC]

Compared to Exhibit B:

 

[elbows]

Yes that could be of note, especially as they've aced questions in the last week or two about whether they intended to try to fully suppress things, or just keep the levels below NHS capacity.

 

[maomao]

China, with its strict lockdown has now got daly new cases in the single figures. They are the example of how a lockdown can work, three months of harsh, but a result at the end. If we could struggle on till the end of June we could be in a similar position with only the ports as a way of reinfecting. I'm amazed the NHS has coped but worried that to sustain the level of workload for it may not be sensible.

Chinese schools 'back to normal' :

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Point 5 is vague to the point of meaninglessness anyway. At least with the addition of the last bit, you have added something that can be measured - namely wanting to have spare capacity released at the point of easing so that the NHS is not overwhelmed by an uptick.

It's also rather different from other countries' approaches. In Germany, Switzerland and elsewhere, they've stressed their relative, and necessary, lack of confidence in the measures being taken, meaning that they need to monitor them very carefully to ensure they're the right thing to do.

The absence of mention of spare capacity in the NHS is an omission, I think. It would be a better thing to have in point 2 - sustained fall in hospitalisation is a more relevant measure than daily deaths. That's another point of difference between those 5 points and the criteria being used elsewhere.

 

[Cid]

China, with its strict lockdown has now got daly new cases in the single figures. They are the example of how a lockdown can work, three months of harsh, but a result at the end. If we could struggle on till the end of June we could be in a similar position with only the ports as a way of reinfecting. I'm amazed the NHS has coped but worried that to sustain the level of workload for it may not be sensible.

Our lockdown is really nothing like theirs though. Nor, afaik, do we have post lockdown measures in place.

 

[treelover]

Coronavirus has made it even easier to forget about disabled people

Understanding that structural inequality means some will be hurt more than others is vital if we hope to slow this pandemic, says Guardian columnist Frances Ryan

www.theguardian.com

More disabled adults said they were “very worried” about the effects of coronavirus on their lives than non-disabled adults (45.1% compared with 30.2%). Nearly two-thirds of disabled people said coronavirus-related concerns were affecting their wellbeing, from loneliness and problems at work, to worsening mental health. This is all too predictable when you consider disabled people are more likely to be in low income and insecure work, isolated, and at higher risk from the virus itself (even more so if you’re disabled and BAME).

When I first argued that coronavirus would impact disabled and marginalised people hardest, some readers responded by pointing out a virus doesn’t check a victim’s bank balance before striking. But understanding that structural inequality means a pandemic will hurt some more than others is crucial if we hope to slow the impact of the virus.

 

[treelover]

while others can’t even access Facebook or Zoom; in a survey by Glasgow Disability Alliance only just over a third of disabled people reported having home broadband during the pandemic.

Very worrying, I wonder if those in Scotland could help here.

 

[Chilli.s]

Our lockdown is really nothing like theirs though. Nor, afaik, do we have post lockdown measures in place.

Yes quite, but theirs is the only example of anyone getting through this and back to work so far.

 

[Anju]

Dominic Raab not getting what the U in UBI stands for.

"The SNP’s Dave Doogan asks what advice Raab has for a constituent who has lost his job. He says the government should back a universal basic income.

Raab says a UBI could not be targeted"

 

[zahir]

Events management branching out into running temporary mortuaries.

Concerns over training at emergency morgues run by UK festival firm

Recruits allege lack of training at sites in London and say they were ordered to sign NDAs

www.theguardian.com

 

[Azrael]

Point 5 is vague to the point of meaninglessness anyway. At least with the addition of the last bit, you have added something that can be measured - namely wanting to have spare capacity released at the point of easing so that the NHS is not overwhelmed by an uptick.

It's also rather different from other countries' approaches. In Germany, Switzerland and elsewhere, they've stressed their relative, and necessary, lack of confidence in the measures being taken, meaning that they need to monitor them very carefully to ensure they're the right thing to do.

The absence of mention of spare capacity in the NHS is an omission, I think. It would be a better thing to have in point 2 - sustained fall in hospitalisation is a more relevant measure than daily deaths. That's another point of difference between those 5 points and the criteria being used elsewhere.

Yes, thanks to the information vacuum, media had one of their periodic bouts of Kremlinology last night and inferred an imminent end of lockdown from a slide. They've varied between the two for weeks.

Of far more note are repeated references to keeping the R rate below one, references to "suppressing" and controlling the virus replacing "slowing" its spread (including in Johnson's speech), and the fact the government's pouring resources into contact tracing and their app.

Just now in PMQs we've had Raab praising a Scottish government plan that unequivocally commits to containing the virus with an aggressive test, trace and isolate strategy.

I suppose it could all be cover for a return to "herd immunity", but not seeing anything pointing that way, or how they could possibly sell hundreds of thousands of deaths to the media when European outbreaks are being suppressed with methods like France's newly announced surveillance system.

They originally went with "herd immunity" 'cause it looked like a quick fix that'd allow them to avoid lockdown. All its political selling points have crumbled to ash. My biggest concern now's that the lockdown will collapse -- either through mass flouting or someone getting a judge to quash it -- before they get their surveillance system working (it is, dear Lord, a Whitehall I.T. project).

 

[JimW]

Chinese schools 'back to normal' :

View attachment 209633View attachment 209634

Does look vaguely like a Tang Court official's hat! Is that something theyve made in crafts to get used to the distance? Won't be every day once habit is set you'd hope.

 

[Azrael]

And after SAGE's public health poverty was exposed, govt now putting out urgent request for experts in "global public health, health systems, epidemiology, infectious diseases, emerging diseases, and social or behavioural sciences".

 

[clicker]

Compared to Exhibit B:

View attachment 209620

That doesn't look reassuring. Or maybe I've misread it?
We know the Nightingales are thankfully not full, so does that mean if easing lockdown measures result in a second peak it's acceptable?
I consider the NHS overwhelmed, until all hospital wards reopen for their intended purpose and the backlog of cancelled treatments are no more.

 

[Azrael]

A "second peak" (or more specifically, a fresh outbreak on the scale of the current one) is the last thing Whitehall wants. If this change was deliberate, at a guess, it's to give them political cover if their surveillance system fails. We know from Germany that even the best systems offer no guarantees, let alone some government IT project run up in a hurry.

 

[Combustible]

Chinese schools 'back to normal' :

View attachment 209633View attachment 209634

In my colleague's son's school, one kid had a fever and was apparently whisked away for COVID test while the rest of the class remained 'locked down' in the classroom until the test results came back (within the same day thankfully)

 

[maomao]

Anyone notice that when the toff cunt was in hospital the figures started coming out on time and now he's back they're much later every day. I'm not saying he's fiddling them but it makes me think he's engaging in the same kind of innefectual and pointless micromanagement that every public schoolboy I've ever worked for has.

 

[Teaboy]

Went past our local drive through testing area. All looked quiet, maybe a handful of cars.

If the lab capacity is there and there are facilities which are clearly underused anyone any thoughts on why they are so reluctant to make the test available to more people? On a slightly different note I see construction workers can now be tested. I wonder how they can tell one way or another whether everyone is being truthful about their job?

 

[elbows]

Anyone notice that when the toff cunt was in hospital the figures started coming out on time and now he's back they're much later every day. I'm not saying he's fiddling them but it makes me think he's engaging in the same kind of innefectual and pointless micromanagement that every public schoolboy I've ever worked for has.

Which figures? I havent noticed the NHS England daily figures being late, but then again I am not usually looking at exactly 2pm so I could be wrong. The UK-wide figures announced each day might vary in their timing much more, but that could be down to one of the other nations for all I know, I havent really been looking at those figures directly every day.

 

[maomao]

Which figures? I havent noticed the NHS England daily figures being late, but then again I am not usually looking at exactly 2pm so I could be wrong. The UK-wide figures announced each day might vary in their timing much more, but that could be down to one of the other nations for all I know, I havent really been looking at those figures directly every day.

The UK total hospital death figure was out within ten minutes of 2 o'clock almost every weekday for the last few weeks. I've just seen that they've chucked an extra 3-4k on for care home and community deaths today. That's a lot less than other estimates.

 

[planetgeli]

I'm just not getting (understanding) some of this Welsh stuff. As I've mentioned, I live under the Hywel Dda health board. We 'appear' to have one of the lowest death rates in the UK. But as I've also mentioned, I don't trust the figures because a) they are so low and b) the same applied to Betsi Cadwaladr (north Wales) who then mentioned 84 deaths last week, up from 0 as they hadn't implemented the new computer system and nobody seemed to notice the anamoly in their zero figure.

Now for Hywel Dda we have this today.

"The Welsh health minister Vaughan Gething told a press conference there had been “challenges in communication” between Betsi Cadwaladr health board and Public Health Wales, and there had also been a “material under-reporting issue” in the Hywel Dda health board area, where 31 deaths were not reported and did not appear in Public Health Wales figures."

"Gething said “individual family communication” had not been affected, with those who had lost loved ones informed of the deaths at the time, and that figures would now be “fully up to date”.

So figures now fully up to date. So we're looking for a figure somewhere above 31 for Hywel Dda right?

Here's the latest figures.

Tableau Public

public.tableau.com

That says Hywel Dda 5.

Figures now fully up to date eh?

Farce.

Ok so today Hywel Dda has added those previously unreported 31 deaths to the 5 they already had.

So the total is now 34.

I'm not making this up.

 

[sheothebudworths]

The UK total hospital death figure was out within ten minutes of 2 o'clock almost every weekday for the last few weeks. I've just seen that they've chucked an extra 3-4k on for care home and community deaths today. That's a lot less than other estimates.

I read something relating to that this morning which confused me because I'd thought we had already been including suspected covid related deaths already
I guess the change was just that death certificates were allowed to LIST covid related reasons, without a test, but that it follows that there has been no reporting of those (inside and outside of hospital settings?) prior to April 24th.

COVID-19 Daily Deaths
This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death or where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced.

The Daily file contains only deaths from the latest reporting period, 5pm 2 days prior to publication until 5pm the day before publication. The Total file contains all reported deaths.

From Tuesday 28 April, NHS England and NHS Improvement started to report the number of patient deaths where there has been no COVID-19 positive test result, but where COVID-19 is documented as a direct or underlying cause of death on part 1 or part 2 of the death certification process. This change has been introduced for deaths that occurred on 24th April and subsequently and is shown separately in the region data table only. When making comparisons over time these figures should not be included.

Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death are likely to be updated in future releases for more recent dates. For example, a positive result for COVID-19 may occur days after confirmation of death. Cases are only included in the data when the positive COVID-19 test result is received, or death certificate confirmed with COVID-19 mentioned. This results in a lag between a given date of death and exhaustive daily death figures for that day.

These figures will be updated at 2pm each day and include confirmed death cases reported at 5pm the previous day. Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification, death certificates and reporting in central figures can take up to several days and the hospitals providing the data are under significant operational pressure. This means that the totals reported at 5pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.

These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach makes it possible to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up to date figures.



I'm watching the briefing now - very unsurprised at the attempts to diminish how large our death toll is, comparatively, by firstly comparing to the US, with the adjusted 'all settings' data (and despite that only including positive tests?) and then to point to the lack of clarity as to whether Spain was including all settings - when it turns out that every other country on the chart is (I knew France were but not the others - Italy, Germany, the US etc).
Also that it's good news - just down to having slightly more realistic data.

 

[Petcha]

Does anyone know why the FT boffins have analysed everything and come up with a figure of 44,000 and the government is at 26,000?

The FT's not exactly an anti-Tory paper. Can't quite figure out the discrepancy.

 

[Teaboy]

Does anyone know why the FT boffins have analysed everything and come up with a figure of 44,000 and the government is at 26,000?

The FT's not exactly an anti-Tory paper. Can't quite figure out the discrepancy.

Allowing for delays in reporting? Looking closer at excess deaths in total compared to previous years?

 

[elbows]

I read something relating to that this morning which confused me because I'd thought we had already been including suspected covid related deaths already
I guess the change was just that death certificates were allowed to LIST covid related reasons, without a test, but that it follows that there has been no reporting of those (inside and outside of hospital settings?) prior to April 24th.

The daily numbers didnt used to include these. But the weekly ONS numbers did, so we have already heard about suspected deaths before, but not every day. Now we get those daily as well.

 

[Petcha]

Allowing for delays in reporting? Looking closer at excess deaths in total compared to previous years?

It's a long read. And a little complicated for me. But yesterday the FT had it at 41,000.

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News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

Fucking paywall!