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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Supine said:
Regarding Covid testing results - if you want to get geeky this is a very good article that explains some of the complications of test result analysis. It's well written.

towardsdatascience.com

Bayes’ Rule, Decision Making, And Containing COVID-19 With Unreliable Diagnostic Tests

How false-negatives in diagnostic testing leads to release of infected people, and why extreme containment measures have been implemented.
towardsdatascience.com towardsdatascience.com
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That article looks pretty good on the general complications and possible inaccuracies of testing :)

But a lot of the detail is a very tough read, so much of the graphs and algebra were beyond this mere humanities type's grasp :oops:

I hope some of the more specialist-minded on here grasp it better! :)
 
Btw, when I registered for my test this morning, at no point did they ask me what I did for a living or any proof of this. It’s basically working on trust. Suspect this will be abused, particularly if people become aware that there’s no verification. I suppose there is a benefit to keeping the system simple and efficient, but open to piss-taking by self-important twats.
 
2hats said:
You can re-test. But even single measurements, providing error rates are know, are useful for plugging into models to get a handle on what is going on more broadly in given cohorts.
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I think Whitty was on about one of the antibody tests in this regard today too, but I tried to take on too much info and may have misremembered. I think he was suggesting that some of the antibody testing they've got which has ok accuracy rates but not great enough to give a particular individual the all clear etc, will still be useful for some of their broader population surveys, for reasons you describe (known error rates etc).
 
Callie said:
What is the efficacy of the NZ and SK PCR tests? I'm not sure that this is a UK thing rather than a base rate effectiveness for this type of test?

In the UK we are mainly doing nose or throat viral swabs. Ideally you want to be doing nasopharyngeal aspirates (aerosol generating procedures....extreme PPE and training required!) Or nasopharyngeal swabs - again bit more intimate, bit more specialist equipment +special bendy swabs).

Soon we're looking at people self testing at home, there will be increased variation in the technique used and therefore this will also (probably detrimentally) impact the efficacy of the testing.

But no test is 100%
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My point really was to do with what it was being used for. If it's being used as the basis of people being able to do stuff again, I think a lot people would not like that as a number for all their colleagues to pass as a basis for changing the rules of social engagement. For broader surveys, sure. If you're aiming at elimination of the virus, it's not great. If you're aiming at containment it might be.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
My point really was to do with what it was being used for. If it's being used as the basis of people being able to do stuff again, I think a lot people would not like that as a number for all their colleagues to pass as a basis for changing the rules of social engagement. For broader surveys, sure. If you're aiming at elimination of the virus, it's not great. If you're aiming at containment it might be.
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Here is an article from February 13th about this issue, including some example from different countries.

www.bbc.co.uk

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
treelover said:
Doesn't Cummings have some interest in eugenics, maybe that spilled over into the SAGE decision making?
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Why would it? The others might tolerate his presence and perhaps take advantage of his supposed communications skills, but they wouldn't kow-tow to his inferior knowledge.The type of academics and civil servants who end up dominating these committees are not noted for their tolerance if those they consider fools.
 
tim said:
Why would it? The others might tolerate his presence and perhaps take advantage of his supposed communications skills, but they wouldn't kow-tow to his inferior knowledge.The type of academics and civil servants who end up dominating these committees are not noted for their tolerance if those they consider fools.
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Yes I expect to find ample evidence of this when I scour the minutes of the POMPOUS (Politically Observant Mandarins Promote Orthodoxy Under Science) committee for clues about their pandemic response ;)
 
scifisam said:
Does anyone on here have a gym membership? Are they still expecting people to keep paying when the gym's shut?
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Mine sent out letters to say they put all our direct debits on hold. Pretty decent, but it's an independent gym so not sure how fucked they'll be come the end of this.
 
keybored said:
Mine sent out letters to say they put all our direct debits on hold. Pretty decent, but it's an independent gym so not sure how fucked they'll be come the end of this.
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Mine too. And they've sorted out some online classes* that are free to members/key workers and quite cheap for other people who just want to sign up for that just now.

*Not that I've actually done any yet. :oops:
 
Thanks. I asked a friend too, and she said they had suspend for three months but keep your membership (ie no joining fee), keep paying just because you're nice, and keep paying but get a free personal trainer session. Plus cancellation.

Most gyms are small businesses, but even those that aren't, like GLL, are going to be in trouble, because they tend to also run leisure centres with swimming pools. Despite swimming itself being really safe, it's going to feel very unsafe getting into a communal swimming pool for a while, esp after paddling through the mess of the changing area.
 
Sue said:
Mine too. And they've sorted out some online classes* that are free to members/key workers and quite cheap for other people who just want to sign up for that just now.

*Not that I've actually done any yet. :oops:
Click to expand...
I just checked mine's website to see if they were offering anything like this. Nothing going, but I did note that anyone who cancelled off their own initiative (before the gym decided to) will have to pay the joining fee if/when they come back. That's gonna cause some gnashing of teeth.
 
keybored said:
I just checked mine's website to see if they were offering anything like this. Nothing going, but I did note that anyone who cancelled off their own initiative (before the gym decided to) will have to pay the joining fee if/when they come back.
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Mine doesn't have a joining fee. Have to say they've been pretty decent.
 
SheilaNaGig said:
So even if the preliminary findings look promising we’ll have to wait to find out if a vaccine actually works in practice...?
Click to expand...
Some more details, including timelines, from lead investigators' comments and the study registration: the phase I/II Oxford trial (COV001) involves random injection with the ChAdOx1 (chimp adenovirus based) nCoV-19 candidate vaccine or a control (actually a standard meningitis ACWY vaccine).

Initial candidates (two) were injected on Thursday. Another six will be injected today (Saturday). They are all monitored for the first 48 hours each. If ok, on Monday the main campaign begins and eventually around 1000 subjects will receive shots.

The earliest they could hope to be able to see any results is July. However if the national campaign to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is successful, obviously, ironically, this study could have to run till October (or even longer) in order to be able to see any effect the vaccine might be having as regards combatting infections in this cohort. Several months are also required to monitor subjects for adverse reactions, safety, tolerability, and degree and longevity of antibody production.

At any time, if the study appears futile, it could be terminated early.

If this phase shows promise then the next stage would be to carry out a further study abroad (Kenya has been suggested).

The study completion date is currently expected to be May 2021.
 
weltweit said:
Dyson Covid-19 ventilators are 'no longer required'
from 24/04/2020 Dyson Covid-19 ventilators are 'no longer required'

afaik they haven't been approved yet either.
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I think he might be telling porkies. My nephew works for Airbus. He's been pulled off his normal work and theyre flat out busy producing ventilators for a company called Penlon. Ford are in on the job too. I doubt they're doing it for the good of their health, no pun intended
Maybe it's just his ventilators that are no longer required.
 
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Saul Goodman said:
I think he might be telling porkies. My nephew works for Airbus. He's been pulled off his normal work and he's flat out busy producing ventilators for a company called Penlon. Ford are in on the job too. I doubt they're doing it for the good of their health, no pun intended
may be it's just his that are no longer required.
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Penlon's ventilator is approved and being delivered. Dyson's prototype hasn't even been approved. There are also other consortia with ventilators at various stages, but I think demand is not what was once expected. I expect most of them won't get firm purchase orders now.
 
weltweit said:
Penlon's ventilator is approved and being delivered. Dyson's prototype hasn't even been approved. There are also other consortia with ventilators at various stages, but I think demand is not what was once expected. I expect most of them won't get firm purchase orders now.
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That'd make sense. If Airbus and Ford are flat out producing an approved ventilator, there's not much point spending on one that hasn't even been approved.
 
I don't know if this was posted already but it's quite worrying if it's true.
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study
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The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus. The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.
Click to expand...
www.ft.com

UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read

FT estimate has been updated to reflect latest mortality trends
www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
Not surprising really. The focus on the official daily death announcements has encouraged lots of wishful thinking by the media and the public. Most countries will have similar issues with the announced numbers lagging well behind the reality. Let's just hope that the scientists, who all know that the official number has to be taken with a pinch of salt, can persuade the politicians to be sensible. The 41,000 number has been in lots of newspapers since the 22nd, but I haven't yet found any response from a minister about it. Rudderless government continues.

Edit: finally found one in a Reuters story:
When asked about the 41,000 death figure from the FT, Helen Whately, a junior health and social care minister, said: “That is not a figure that I recognise. We know that people are dying in care homes and we know that more people than usual are dying in care homes,” Whately said, adding that the government would next week publish data on deaths in care homes.
Click to expand...
www.reuters.com

FT analysis sees UK coronavirus death toll at 41,000

The novel coronavirus outbreak has caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the United Kingdom, according to a Financial Times analysis of statistics office data.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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scifisam said:
Thanks. I asked a friend too, and she said they had suspend for three months but keep your membership (ie no joining fee), keep paying just because you're nice, and keep paying but get a free personal trainer session. Plus cancellation.

Most gyms are small businesses, but even those that aren't, like GLL, are going to be in trouble, because they tend to also run leisure centres with swimming pools. Despite swimming itself being really safe, it's going to feel very unsafe getting into a communal swimming pool for a while, esp after paddling through the mess of the changing area.
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I think we had three options, I was going to cancel altogether because I don’t actually use my membership but we’re having our bathroom done whenever this nightmare is over so I didn’t want to have to join again to use the showers. 😄
 
They probably all think they've got it so it doesn't matter. Or they've all not got it so it doesn't matter. Or that some have and some haven't so errm they're working on herd immunity for the benefit of mankind.
 
killer b said:
I think it's entered british parlance via the Guardian politics live feed tbh
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It’s a term that’s been very commonly used by journalists among themselves for the past twenty years or so. I wasn’t aware it had passed into common speech.
 
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