Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

It'd be fucking stupid and dishonest to give a date, it depends on how it goes the next few weeks for infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths.

I don't think it's quite that, though.

At a very similar stage on its curve - deaths at a peak, number in hospital finally starting to come down - the Swiss announced a further one-week extension from the lockdown that was one week away from ending with a statement about plans to ease lockdown as long as the numbers kept improving. Their numbers have kept improving and they're on course to change things next week now.

The reason they could do that is because they had a plan. They had been testing a lot and had test and trace mechanisms in place. That's the real reason for the silence - the lack of a plan. Earlier in the thread, the Guardian was quoted reporting that the cabinet is totally split on what to do. Meanwhile there is an ongoing deafening silence about any potential test-trace-isolate programme, which they should have been working on for a month already at least.

Compare and contrast with Switzerland's detailed three-stage plan to end things. The timing of each phase is dependent on how the previous phase has gone, so everything is provisional and subject to change. But a plan it certainly is.

 

[zora]

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, pertaining partly to Germany and to the UK but as it's relevant to any potential loosening of lockdown, I will put it here.
There's obviously been a lot of praise for Angela Merkel's simple and clear yet grown-up explanation of the r-number. Further to this, I just watched her press conference from a couple of days ago in which she expressed some concern about the possibility of undoing the good work of the past weeks should the loosening of restrictions lead to people feeling too secure and to be less careful about the continued social distancing. She also made crystal clear that this loosening can only happen supported by meticulous contact tracing. I was amazed in how much detail she described the measures that are being put in place. Apart from the app that is being developed (and that participating in will be voluntary, but a large uptake is hoped for and expected, as I understand), she said precisely how the contact tracing will be supported. Five public health employees will be dedicated to contact tracing forevery 20000 people in the population, and 105 teams of 5 medical students will be supporting the tracing and containment measures where needed. Of course, the issue of face masks for the public was being raised, especially as one of the German states (Sachsen) has made wearing a (homemade) face mask in shops and on public transort compulsory. From what I understand, this will continue to be looked at, yet it's always been made clear that this should not increase competition for the medical face masks for the health sector, and masks would only be made compulsory if the state is in a position to provide them, and that it will need to be accompanied by a big public awareness campaign in using them correctly and safely.
It was all so...sensible, and transparent...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, pertaining partly to Germany and to the UK but as it's relevant to any potential loosening of lockdown, I will put it here.
There's obviously been a lot of praise for Angela Merkel's simple and clear yet grown-up explanation of the r-number. Further to this, I just watched her press conference from a couple of days ago in which she expressed some concern about the possibility of undoing the good work of the past weeks should the loosening of restrictions lead to people feeling too secure and to be less careful about the continued social distancing. She also made crystal clear that this loosening can only happen supported by meticulous contact tracing. I was amazed in how much detail she described the measures that are being put in place. Apart from the app that is being developed (and that participating in will be voluntary, but a large uptake is hoped for and expected, as I understand), she said precisely how the contact tracing will be supported. Five public health employees will be dedicated to contact tracing forevery 20000 people in the popultation, and 105 teams of 5 medical students will be supporting the tracing and containment measures where needed. Of course, the issue of face masks for the public was being raised, especially as one of the German states (Sachsen) has made wearing a (homemade) face mask in shops and on public transort compulsory. From what I understand, this will continue to be looked at, yet it's always been made clear that this should not increase competition for the medical face masks for the health sector, and masks would only be made compulsory if the state is in a position to provide them, and that it will need to be accompanied by a big public awareness campaign in using them correctly and safely.
It was all so...sensible, and transparent...

This isn't rocket science. That's what gets me. That all sounds very good, but it's pretty obvious how to do it. It's an exercise in basic logistics, essentially, and yeah, you don't even need fully qualified medics to carry out the daily checking.

And it's not like people haven't been calling for exactly the above here for at least the last month.

 

[BCBlues]

Brum firm 'shipping PPE abroad after UK gov ignored offer of help' Brum firm 'shipping PPE abroad after UK gov ignored offer of help'

From the (not so) local rag. Expect some of the usual swerving of answers should this be bought up at the briefings. Coupled with the fake NHS staff twitter revelations, this govt are proving that yes, they can and are getting worse.

 

[little_legs]

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, pertaining partly to Germany and to the UK but as it's relevant to any potential loosening of lockdown, I will put it here.
There's obviously been a lot of praise for Angela Merkel's simple and clear yet grown-up explanation of the r-number. Further to this, I just watched her press conference from a couple of days ago in which she expressed some concern about the possibility of undoing the good work of the past weeks should the loosening of restrictions lead to people feeling too secure and to be less careful about the continued social distancing. She also made crystal clear that this loosening can only happen supported by meticulous contact tracing. I was amazed in how much detail she described the measures that are being put in place. Apart from the app that is being developed (and that participating in will be voluntary, but a large uptake is hoped for and expected, as I understand), she said precisely how the contact tracing will be supported. Five public health employees will be dedicated to contact tracing forevery 20000 people in the popultation, and 105 teams of 5 medical students will be supporting the tracing and containment measures where needed. Of course, the issue of face masks for the public was being raised, especially as one of the German states (Sachsen) has made wearing a (homemade) face mask in shops and on public transort compulsory. From what I understand, this will continue to be looked at, yet it's always been made clear that this should not increase competition for the medical face masks for the health sector, and masks would only be made compulsory if the state is in a position to provide them, and that it will need to be accompanied by a big public awareness campaign in using them correctly and safely.
It was all so...sensible, and transparent...

Imagine a person in charge of a country with a degree in Physics who saves you from getting sick and going insane. Nothing like some suicidal cunt who did Classics at Oxford who can't even string a couple of sentences together.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Imagine a person in charge of a country with a degree in Physics who saves you from getting sick and going insane. Nothing like some suicidal cunt who did Classics at Oxford who can't even string a couple of sentences together.

Thatcher had a degree in chemistry, tbf. Just being a scientist isn't enough on its own. But yeah, I agree with the general thrust. At least Merkel understands the problem.

That said, Thatcher would probably have done better. Pretty much anyone could have done better.

 

[MickiQ]

People have reached breaking point. If the government could figure out how to be, well, a government, and gave us a proper target date I think people would be more compliant.

In saying that, in my area we don't have any of what you describe. Everyone seems to be being good. Although personally I really don't how much longer I can last.

The longer this goes on the less effect this is going to have, 'Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives' is a good slogan but like all slogans it is going to become less and less effective.
A lot of people are increasingly going to find themselves suffering economically, socially and mentally without seeing any personal benefit too and as time goes on, they're going to feel that is more important than feeling they are protecting the lives of complete strangers.
OK we Brits are bit more socially cohesive that the Trumpists demanding their rights to buy guns and get their hair cut but it is going to get harder to get voluntary compliance as people yearn to return to normal.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The longer this goes on the less effect this is going to have, 'Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives' is a good slogan but like all slogans it is going to become less and less effective.
A lot of people are increasingly going to find themselves suffering economically, socially and mentally without seeing any personal benefit too and as time goes on, they're going to feel that is more important than feeling they are protecting the lives of complete strangers.
OK we Brits are bit more socially cohesive that the Trumpists demanding their rights to buy guns and get their hair cut but it is going to get harder to get voluntary compliance as people yearn to return to normal.

Hopefully it is also becoming harder for people to stomach the obvious incompetence of the government. That's surely the main reason why that slogan is starting to wear thin. I certainly hope so. I don't see how anyone can fail to realise how fucking shit they are now.

 

[Petcha]

Imagine a person in charge of a country with a degree in Physics who saves you from getting sick and going insane. Nothing like some suicidal cunt who did Classics at Oxford who can't even string a couple of sentences together.

Boris is fucking incompetent but I don't think the blame can be entirely laid at his door. The Australian PM is a total fucking idiot as well but must have been getting better advice. Don't know much about the NZ one, and yeh, Merkel is a very very good leader who could probably grasp the science a bit better than the buffoon we seem to have ended up with.

 

[zora]

This isn't rocket science. That's what gets me. That all sounds very good, but it's pretty obvious how to do it. It's an exercise in basic logistics, essentially, and yeah, you don't even need fully qualified medics to carry out the daily checking.

And it's not like people haven't been calling for exactly the above here for at least the last month.

I know it's not - as it turns out you literally only have to watch the first half hour of the movie Contagion to grasp this; it's how it's being communicated, and the fact that it's actually being implemented that is striking to me in contrast!

Another point of contrast is wrt to the disingenuous "We are just following the science"-thing from the UK government that I have seen more and more people highlight here. I have been following the excellent podcasts from German virologist Christian Drosten (audio and pdf archive here, albeit only in German), that have been produced almost daily since 3 March for 30 - 40 mins, dozens of hours of high quality content, discussing in detail yet accessible to the interested lay audience all the latest studies and scientific findings, putting them into context and answering questions that arose in the wider public in response to news headlines. But in amongst this, he is always at great pains not only to stress the limitations of individual studies and findings, but also of the limits of the role of science in what are ultimately political decisions.

And in response to little_legs (and I will stop here with my Merkel-love, although I have always admitted that despite my different politics I have not been immune to the Mutti-complex...), whatever one might think of her politics, you just don't get the feeling that she's inconvenienced by having to govern through this situation, gravely and genuinely concerned yes, but not that's in an imposition to her unlike with this lot.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Merkel gained some respect from me over the refugee decision. She didn't have to do that. In fact, it hurt her politically to do it. Her politics are a long way from mine, but I recognise that she has principles and a degree of humanity that are completely lacking in the Tories.

 

[two sheds]

Boris is fucking incompetent but I don't think the blame can be entirely laid at his door.

Well not entirely but I think he can be wholeheartedly blamed for being fucking incompetent.

Fucking incompetent and driven by ambition to take charge of the country while being a fraudulent, lying, irresponsible, philandering, hypocritical (I'm sure I've left lots out) little shit.

 

[Petcha]

I'm not a scientist. But at the time I was flabbergasted when this went ahead when even Atletico's own stadium was closed. Let's just bring 3,000 people from one of the epicentres of the virus into one of our biggest cities for a couple of nights partying. Brilliant idea.

Liverpool v Atlético virus links 'interesting hypothesis', says government scientist

Links between the outbreak of coronavirus in Liverpool and the Champions League tie at Anfield attended by more than 3,000 Atlético Madrid supporters should be explored, a government scientist acknowledged

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mrs Miggins]

Just an aside on New Zealand and Australia....it was much easier for them to close their borders quickly and get people to self isolate.
After all, literally nobody is "passing through" either of those countries and the populations are tiny in comparision to Europe.

 

[Petcha]

Just an aside on New Zealand and Australia....it was much easier for them to close their borders quickly and get people to self isolate.
After all, literally nobody is "passing through" either of those countries and the populations are tiny in comparision to Europe.

It's about the rate per capita. They're way below what we have.

Sydney is a heavily populated city and they still contained it relatively well. I accept New Zealand must have had it easier because as you say, you don't pass through it, but I understand their lockdown was far faster and far more hardcore than ours and also by nature I think Kiwis might be more compliant than us. 9 deaths or something there.

 

[maomao]

Sydney is a heavily populated city

430 people per square km compared to London's 4 and a half thousand.

 

[Petcha]

430 people per square km compared to London's 4 and a half thousand.

A similar population is what I meant. 5.5 million there. But I accept it's more spread out.

 

[Wilf]

I'm not a scientist. But at the time I was flabbergasted when this went ahead when even Atletico's own stadium was closed. Let's just bring 3,000 people from one of the epicentres of the virus into one of our biggest cities for a couple of nights partying. Brilliant idea.

Liverpool v Atlético virus links 'interesting hypothesis', says government scientist

Links between the outbreak of coronavirus in Liverpool and the Champions League tie at Anfield attended by more than 3,000 Atlético Madrid supporters should be explored, a government scientist acknowledged

www.theguardian.com

To be fair, johnson must be an Atletico fan given that he, literally, walked round a hospital wiping the virus onto his hands.

 

[treelover]

I don't have a car either

There is meant to be one at meadowhall nr sheffield, but hard to find info.

 

[Mrs Miggins]

It's about the rate per capita. They're way below what we have.

Sydney is a heavily populated city and they still contained it relatively well. I accept New Zealand must have had it easier because as you say, you don't pass through it, but I understand their lockdown was far faster and far more hardcore than ours and also by nature I think Kiwis might be more compliant than us. 9 deaths or something there.

All I'm saying is it is a much easier decision to take to close your borders when hardly anybody is coming in anyway. They are very isolated countries in the first place. They quickly stopped everyone who was not resident from coming in and asked returning residents to self isolate as soon as they came home. Tourists as well who came in before they actually closed the borders and they had police out and about enforcing that.

A similar population is what I meant. 5.5 million there. But I accept it's more spread out.

The bigger cities yes - they are fairly densely populated but the countries as a whole? Nah - there's nobody there! It's a lot easier to self-isolate when there is nobody living very close to you in the first place.

In no way am I saying they've had it easy - it just feels less complicated to enforce such measures so those decisions can be made more quickly. And good for them!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

430 people per square km compared to London's 4 and a half thousand.

I think the main variable here is the point in transmission at which you intervene. In Aus and NZ, they've got in early enough to limit movement and track and trace each transmission. Do that, and whatever your population density, you have a chance of containment. Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most densely populated cities in the world. Seoul is also much more densely populated than London.

 

[belboid]

There is meant to be one at meadowhall nr sheffield, but hard to find info.

It’s at the arena rather than Meadowhall, but is for people referred by hospital/gp. Non drivers still go to hospital

 

[treelover]

I don't know and it is extremely concerning. Ive been fine going to work on the bus because the buses were empty. Now I'm uncomfortable. I may have to start walking both ways as it was not possible to properly social distance this morning.

They don't look like middle management. They all look like ordinary people. Most probably going to work - to regular jobs. Maybe a lot of them were walking before but jumping on the bus now it's free. That doesn't explain the increased traffic though.

I'm upset this morning. Very upset. I've had a little weep after picking up my scrubs from the big marquee at the back of the hospital.

what is the answer though, many people look down at those who report such things, it was quiet where i live, maybe as Cid says people are now going back to city centre.

Photos appear to show lack of social distancing at Plusnet's Sheffield HQ amid coronavirus crisis

More staff working at Plusnet’s Sheffield city centre headquarters have voiced their fears over coronavirus, as fresh photos appear to show social distancing guidelines being flouted.

www.thestar.co.uk

btw, this is Plusnets national HQ, not good

 

[Mrs Miggins]

what is the answer though, many people look down at those who report such things, it was quiet where i live, maybe as Cid says people are now going back to city centre.

I don't know what the answer is. I have no idea how people can be stopped from using public transport and I'm certainly not going start challenging them or calling the fuzz. People are back out though and they are out in increasing numbers. More today than yesterday.

I'm just going to have to try to protect myself and get my bloody bike working.

 

[treelover]

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, pertaining partly to Germany and to the UK but as it's relevant to any potential loosening of lockdown, I will put it here.
There's obviously been a lot of praise for Angela Merkel's simple and clear yet grown-up explanation of the r-number. Further to this, I just watched her press conference from a couple of days ago in which she expressed some concern about the possibility of undoing the good work of the past weeks should the loosening of restrictions lead to people feeling too secure and to be less careful about the continued social distancing. She also made crystal clear that this loosening can only happen supported by meticulous contact tracing. I was amazed in how much detail she described the measures that are being put in place. Apart from the app that is being developed (and that participating in will be voluntary, but a large uptake is hoped for and expected, as I understand), she said precisely how the contact tracing will be supported. Five public health employees will be dedicated to contact tracing forevery 20000 people in the population, and 105 teams of 5 medical students will be supporting the tracing and containment measures where needed. Of course, the issue of face masks for the public was being raised, especially as one of the German states (Sachsen) has made wearing a (homemade) face mask in shops and on public transort compulsory. From what I understand, this will continue to be looked at, yet it's always been made clear that this should not increase competition for the medical face masks for the health sector, and masks would only be made compulsory if the state is in a position to provide them, and that it will need to be accompanied by a big public awareness campaign in using them correctly and safely.
It was all so...sensible, and transparent...

Parliament is back soon, in some form, let's hope the PLP/Starmer, really interogate the Govts atrocious performance, which is costing lives.

 

[little_legs]

I know it's not - as it turns out you literally only have to watch the first half hour of the movie Contagion to grasp this; it's how it's being communicated, and the fact that it's actually being implemented that is striking to me in contrast!

Another point of contrast is wrt to the disingenuous "We are just following the science"-thing from the UK government that I have seen more and more people highlight here. I have been following the excellent podcasts from German virologist Christian Drosten (audio and pdf archive here, albeit only in German), that have been produced almost daily since 3 March for 30 - 40 mins, dozens of hours of high quality content, discussing in detail yet accessible to the interested lay audience all the latest studies and scientific findings, putting them into context and answering questions that arose in the wider public in response to news headlines. But in amongst this, he is always at great pains not only to stress the limitations of individual studies and findings, but also of the limits of the role of science in what are ultimately political decisions.

And in response to little_legs (and I will stop here with my Merkel-love, although I have always admitted that despite my different politics I have not been immune to the Mutti-complex...), whatever one might think of her politics, you just don't get the feeling that she's inconvenienced by having to govern through this situation, gravely and genuinely concerned yes, but not that's in an imposition to her unlike with this lot.

On the contrary, love, do continue posting about how Merkel handles the situation. If anything, I am just jealous that there is a country in Europe that isn't a total fuck up when it comes to healthcare.

Merkel's handling of the refugee crisis and covid-19 outbreak deserves praise and offers hope that maybe, just maybe human race is not doomed.

 

[crossthebreeze]

I meant in the cars. One way or another it looks like there is more pressure to go to work now than two weeks ago. Where are the stark warnings on our TVs and SM about this? The scolding of employers?

I think there is more pressure for a lot of people to work now - lots of businesses closed at first then reopened when they got clarification from government, or once they had come up for a plan for social distancing and hygeine measures. The construction industry guidelines were watered down 2 weeks ago. This week B&Q announced they are re-opening some of their stores to the public, Fenwicks (big department store in Newcastle) has reopened its website for online ordering. Lots of self-employed people who could deal with maybe 3 weeks without an income but are going to run out of cash well before June, so will now be doing what work they can.
Its exactly the opposite to stark warnings and scolding employers - after the first few days government has repeatedly said that most businesses SHOULD keep running.
There's also more essential work going on as well which would have taken a couple of weeks to set up - more delivery drivers and warehouse staff being taken on by supermarkets, factories and workshops reopening to make PPE

Round my way it seems a bit quieter this week than last - I honestly think there must have been some people who thought that lockdown had ended last Tuesday because the three weeks were up. The way those police/CPS guidelines have been reported too: I know a few people who've driven somewhere for a long walk or driven to a shop not in their immediate neighbourhood in the last few days who had exercised or shopped close to home since lockdown. Road outside my flat is less buy than last week, but busier than it was a fortnight ago.

 

[Wilf]

To be fair, johnson must be an Atletico fan given that he, literally, walked round a hospital wiping the virus onto his hands.

... reminds me of the stages we've gone through. After it was decided that shaking hands wasn't a particularly good idea, didn't we briefly get into elbow bumps?

Elbow-bumps and footshakes: the new coronavirus etiquette

Virus means handshakes, cheek-kisses, hugs may not be welcome

www.theguardian.com

Actually, even at 3rd March, the UK was still saying hand shakes were okay. ^
And then we had johnson and his science bods with 3 lecterns less than 2 metres apart, which was 'okay because they weren't facing each other'. Not surprisingly, the rate of infection amongst johnson's immediate circle of cabinet ministers, advisers and (current) family has been higher than just about any other group in the UK. Lions led by utter craven, neoliberal, venal, fuckwits.

It would be nice to see johnson in a court or doing the Mussolini lampost adornment after this, but the first thing will have to be a Brass Eye special.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Parliament is back soon, in some form, let's hope the PLP/Starmer, really interogate the Govts atrocious performance, which is costing lives.

They're going to be far too busy trying to bury all traces of their own perfidious conduct.

 

[quimcunx]

crossthebreeze I think that is not necessarily a bad thing or doesn't have to be, but there has to be some mechanism to ensure employers are not unduly risking their empoyees' health. And even if the workplace is ok people must be able to travel while distancing. And being in a building for 7 hours or on a bus with someone 2m away for 20 mins is not the same as passing someone on the street 2m away. Not sure what guidance is out there but even if businesses stay open they should be working fewer hours, fewer staff on site, more hygiene measures etc. whatever is necessary to reasonably protect workers. I suspect a lot of workers rights are actually being trampled over. And if so where is that in the media? Or shall we just stick to calling the police out to harass parents and toddlers sitting on some grass eating a biscuit 50 feet away from anyone else?