Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Buddy Bradley]

They have just announced a £30bn programme to protect the country economy from the coronavirus

FTFY

 

[Buddy Bradley]

UK dashboard has been updated btw: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[elbows]

A potential problem with this approach, I think, is that we’re going to get a more than necessarily scary fatality rate, if we skew the population we test towards people ill enough to require hospitalisation. I understand of course that it’s a resource management game, and also a data manipulation one, and certainly with sub sampling and so on we (they) will be able to extrapolate the ‘invisible’ case number and have an estimate of the true CFR, however this may end up with them saying it’s still under 1% or whatever, while the numbers they publish are going to show 2% or more, which is going to be increasingly difficult to spin. Maybe. Am I wrong?

Its always an issue, its why I have been very hesitant to make much of all sorts of data out of all sorts of countries so far.

I dont have a clue what sort of scale of actual testing they plan to do in the next phase, it might be a question of resources. Certainly with the swine flu, once the first epidemic wave had clearly got going, they switched to a different approach towards cases, less about actual test results and more about estimates, sampling, and counting general presentations of influenza-like-illness. One of the reasons they could do that is that it was July, so they didnt have to worry as much about other influenza-like-illnesses clouding the picture.

Whatever they manage in the way of actual tests, I expect they will still want to do broad serology surveys of the population at some point, to get a sense what proportion of the public have caught it in the first wave.

 

[elbows]

There's the testing of those who have the symptoms, traveled from X and the rest. However I haven't heard about any 'random focused' testing i.e. testing of a-symptomatic individuals in wider communities, areas and demographics to get a sense of underlying patterns of transmission.

Edit: meant to say, am I right in thinking those kind of studies don't seem to be taking place?

Current test doesnt even necessarily work that well when people are in an asymptomatic phase, this is one of the unknowns.

And it's not been all that long since they even started to sample influenza-like-illness symptomatic cases that went to one of the 100 GP surgeries/clinics that are part of the surveillance scheme.

If I had designed the system then I'd have routine random sampling built in at all times, and certainly from the start of this situation, but thats just not the way most countries seem to do it, they all start with the narrowest possible testing, and then slowly expand.

 

[Wilf]

Current test doesnt even necessarily work that well when people are in an asymptomatic phase, this is one of the unknowns.

And it's not been all that long since they even started to sample influenza-like-illness symptomatic cases that went to one of the 100 GP surgeries/clinics that are part of the surveillance scheme.

If I had designed the system then I'd have routine random sampling built in at all times, and certainly from the start of this situation, but thats just not the way most countries seem to do it, they all start with the narrowest possible testing, and then slowly expand.

And that seems to create a political logic, that Johnson is currently slap bang in the middle of: 'we are watching, waiting and testing, sounding all adult but doing very little... eventually the real world takes over, the virus spreads and they have to spend all the money and lock things down... they then discover the true number of infections, as a post hoc justification for having to ramp things up'.

 

[planetgeli]

First two cases in my county, allegedly at a school near me but not my school.

Close down edging nearer.

 

[8ball]

They're popping up around me. I'm fairly resigned to getting it now. Hoping to i) not die and ii) get some decent antibodies.

 

[Numbers]

Still clear here in Newham, but a guy in the building I work was sent home today.

 

[andysays]

Regarding testing

Coronavirus : NHS to ramp up testing capacity

With the number of UK coronavirus cases set to rise, NHS England says it is scaling up its capacity for testing people for the infection. It means 10,000 tests a day can be done - 8,000 more than the 1,500 being carried out currently.

Confirmation of any positive test results will be accelerated, helping people take the right action to recover or quickly get treatment. Most of the people tested should get a result back within 24 hours.

 

[Callie]

Numbers at 456 now.

+ decrease in testing for 4th day in a row.

where did you get that there has been a decrease in testing from? I think its quite the opposite.

 

[Callie]

That decrease in testing seems a bit crazy. Heard from a friend today that someone she knew with all the symptoms of coronavirus couldn't get tested because she'd not (knowingly) been in contact with anyone with it. The doctor even said it might be coronavirus, but in her age range she'd be fine, but no, it wasn't possible to test. Seems nuts to me. Can anyone fathom the logic of that?

Capacity.

it is just not physically possible to test everyone who might have it

 

[Numbers]

where did you get that there has been a decrease in testing from? I think its quite the opposite.

Gov UK twitter page.

 

[elbows]

I dont know how much energy I have to carry on complaining about the testing regime since I already said so much about the topic in February, but here is some via the Guardian: 1h ago 17:48

A retired intensive care doctor claims the government plans to increase coronavirus testing are “way too late” after he and his friends were repeatedly refused test despite falling ill following an Austrian skiing trip.
Six of the group, from Chichester, suffered severe flu-like symptoms after a trip to Ischgl in Austria, earlier this month, he said. The resort is classed as a virus risk area by some countries, including Iceland and Norway, but not the UK. As a result all of the group have been denied tests by the NHS 111 service. It has also closed bars as a precaution.
The 55 year-year-old former doctor, who gave his name only as Andrew, said he had also fallen ill at an earlier trip to the same resort in January:I’ve never been so ill. I was hoping they would just test me anyway and to prove I’ve had it. My friends have all phoned NHS 111 and they’ve all been told several times that as they haven’t been to an at risk area they can’t be tested and they should even self isolate.

These people are saying they are as ill as they’ve ever been, and they still can’t do a test.
The reason we’ve got relatively low numbers in this country at the moment is because they’re only been testing about 1,500 a day. I think the infection has been widespread for a month now.
They may be upping the testing but they haven’t put Ischgl on a high risk list, despite knowing about this for days. It is a massive cluster. Six of us have been back in Chichester going about their daily life. I suspect we’ll find a big cluster in Chichester two weeks.
The increase in testing is way too late. I think it was obvious six weeks ago that we should have been doing surveillance screening. Lives are at risk here.

 

[agricola]

Capacity.

it is just not physically possible to test everyone who might have it

This - but that is why the government (and media, though they are adopting the government line here) should really stop putting the emphasis on numbers of confirmed cases / deaths as evidence of how serious this outbreak is; its giving people information about the spread of the disease that is both days out of date and misleading since its based on what is a really small and rigorously enforced sample selection.

 

[Callie]

Gov UK twitter page.

cant see anything but their running at 60 tweets and replies a minute anyway its WRONG. The actual PHE labs will be testing fewer samples though as testing rolls out to more local labs so maybe it was that but testing overall has increased for definite. I think it will be difficult to give actual numbers of tests once that is fully up and running.

 

[elbows]

A case has been detected in the intensive care unit at my local hospital (a hospital which often features high on the list of hospitals with serious issues):

Coronavirus patient in intensive care at Nuneaton's hospital

The George Eliot Hospital has issued a statement

www.coventrytelegraph.net

The case from this hospital is one of todays deaths

Dr Catherine Free, the medical director at George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust has said:

The trust can confirm that an elderly patient being treated for a number of serious underlying health conditions has died. The patient had tested positive for Covid-19.
The family has been informed and our condolences and our thoughts are with them at this difficult time.

5m ago 18:49

 

[danny la rouge]

Just got a text from my GP saying they’re stopping walk-in services.

They’ve started drive-through testing here apparently. Unless that was a dream I had. Maybe it was a dream. It suddenly looked mad when I typed it out.

 

[killer b]

They’ve started drive-through testing here apparently. Unless that was a dream I had. Maybe it was a dream. It suddenly looked mad when I typed it out.

Edie mentioned they're doing it in leeds, so it's probably real.

 

[killer b]

(it's also one of the ways South Korea has managed to get on top of their outbreak, so probably a good idea too)

 

[two sheds]

They’ve started drive-through testing here apparently. Unless that was a dream I had. Maybe it was a dream. It suddenly looked mad when I typed it out.

I dreamed that I met Nadine Dorries in a queue in a shop last night. Under questioning she assured me (several times) that she'd not infected Boris but I didn't really believe her.

 

[elbows]

Is there another Cobra meeting today?

It was chaired by Hancock and his 7pm statement in parliament was mostly about how parliament will not be shut down.

He may as well have started going on about how he had a Laissez-faire doom sausage in his pocket.

 

[elbows]

Shadow Health Secretary is quoting the bloke in the Lancet who has been critical of the UK stance.

 

[Sue]

I dreamed that I met Nadine Dorries in a queue in a shop last night. Under questioning she assured me (several times) that she'd not infected Boris but I didn't really believe her.

Wishful thinking..?

Eta That makes absolutely no sense. All I can say is that it's been a very long day.

 

[two sheds]

Wishful thinking..?

On her part perhaps

 

[elbows]

Hancock just gave a very shitty answer that was all about pretending that we are following some kind of perfect monolithic science, and suggests some other countries response is different because they arent following the science.

 

[elbows]

Oh god now a Tory MP brought up the Big Society.

Jeremy Hunt was the voice of reason for one brief moment, strange times indeed.

Hancock sticking to the idea that asymptomatic transmission isnt a big thing, so no problem with MPs cramming into the voting lobbies, as long as they dont come into parliament if they have symptoms.

 

[elbows]

Gov UK twitter page.

Greg Clark, Chair, Science & Technology Committee just raised this issue of test numbers in parliament, pointing out the slight drop, and how the WHO China report went on about how important testing was.

Hancock gave a fluff answer.

 

[tommers]

Oh god now a Tory MP brought up the Big Society.

Jeremy Hunt was the voice of reason for one brief moment, strange times indeed.

Hancock sticking to the idea that asymptomatic transmission isnt a big thing, so no problem with MPs cramming into the voting lobbies, as long as they dont come into parliament if they have symptoms.

Good good.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

God that debate is fucking dire. Hancock is such a cock.

 

[elbows]

God that debate is fucking dire. Hancock is such a cock.

Inevitably with a subject like this he occasionally says something that I agree with and have said on this forum, it makes me cringe!