Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cid]

I'd agree with you on that.

This idea seems to be viewed as a magic bullet, but the practicalities of it don't suggest it will be of much help, now that so many people are likely to be infected.

The way these things work, to the extent they do work, is that once someone has tested positive, they go into isolation, then the job is to trace everyone who they've been in contact with for the past how ever many days (at least 7, maybe more).

Then all of those people have to be tested, those who test positive go into isolation and everyone each of them has been in contact with for the past 7 days has to be traced and tested.

And then all of those people have to be tested, those who test positive go into isolation and everyone each of them has been in contact with for the past 7 days has to be traced and tested.

The job would be made theoretically easier if a magic app could identify everyone a given carrier had been within a set distance of in the last week, but the job would still be to actually test all those people.

The most recent figures I can immediately find suggest that over 60,000 people had tested positive on April 9th. Finding and testing even the direct contacts, far less contacts of contacts etc, is a task way beyond not only current testing capability, but our likely capability for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, to clarify my own view on this... I think it could potentially be workable. But only off the back of an extended, severe lockdown aimed at getting active cases down as low as possible. And fuck knows if we could maintain that. I doubt it on current evidence. A competent government might be able to though.

The actual impression I get is that we're basically still following the herd immunity strategy, just with some measures to stop the NHS actually collapsing, but not really with much concern as to the final toll.

 

[kebabking]

The only people I've seen not doing the 2/3m social distancing is old people in Bewdley. Standing about and gassing in groups of half a dozen...

And coppers obviously. Christ they really are thick as fucking dogshit.

 

[zahir]

The actual impression I get is that we're basically still following the herd immunity strategy, just with some measures to stop the NHS actually collapsing, but not really with much concern as to the final toll.

This is my impression as well. The messaging may have changed but I don’t see much sign of a change in the underlying plan.

 

[elbows]

The actual impression I get is that we're basically still following the herd immunity strategy, just with some measures to stop the NHS actually collapsing, but not really with much concern as to the final toll.

For weeks it was hard to tell because of their apparent need to avoid the impression of a u-turn when doing the daily briefings. But they foolishly threw around the 20,000 number of deaths as being some sort of target we could judge them by. And there are some signs that the old orthodox approach is actually dead, they are just hedging their bets a bit about what happens instead. eg Whitty recently acknowledging that there were lessons to be learnt from Germany. Its still not enough for me to be highly confident about what strategy they are now following, but I'm reasonably confident it isnt herd immunity any more. Even if for no other reason than the numbers game just doesnt work on this front, not unless they eventually get serological survey data that shows a much higher proportion of the country have already been infected than is currently assumed to be the case.

 

[xenon]

Reminds me of this

The Rice and Chessboard Legend

An ancient legend about some rice and a chessboard goes as follows: “A wise old ruler wanted to reward his servant for an act of extraordinary bravery. The servant said:...

www.mathscareers.org.uk

It's just binary. If cases doubled every X days, after 32 x days, you'll have 4 billion + cases.

(Thank you IPV4.)

 

[Ms Ordinary]

As far as I see, yes, people are out but they're keeping their distance. Apart from younger, male joggers who really don't seem to give a shit.

I can only find one male jogger in that photo & couldn't say for sure, that he isn't at least trying to keep 2m distance.

(I do think it's irresponsible to go running along the main paths of a park that busy - but that's only because of the article I read on this site about runners & cyclists possibly shedding over a much larger area. Since then I've kept a much bigger distance - either as a runner myself or walking near a runner / cyclist.
If he's trying to keep 2m away then he's within the guidance, whether that's a safe distance or not is a different question

 

[The39thStep]

We really need VAR for correct social decisions on distancing infringements

 

[magneze]

I can only find one male jogger in that photo & couldn't say for sure, that he isn't at least trying to keep 2m distance.

(I do think it's irresponsible to go running along the main paths of a park that busy - but that's only because of the article I read on this site about runners & cyclists possibly shedding over a much larger area. Since then I've kept a much bigger distance - either as a runner myself or walking near a runner / cyclist.
If he's trying to keep 2m away then he's within the guidance, whether that's a safe distance or not is a different question

I'm talking in general rather than that particular picture. It's become quite noticeable around here.

 

[editor]

View attachment 206269

London park on Saturday, it really isn't working is it?

It probably is, because the photo is deceptive.

When you use a long telephoto lens it compresses perspective, so it's most likely that everyone is correctly social distancing.

*Ah I see others have pointed it out as well!

 

[editor]

Tragic

Sara Trollope, 51, had dedicated her entire 33-year career to the NHS and was just months from retirement when she died from coronavirus.

Proud hospital matron who posed with Boris Johnson loses life to coronavirus

EXCLUSIVE: Tragic Sara Trollope was 'devoted' to her NHS job, and was just months away from retirement when she contracted the killer coronavirus

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Oh... here too in general tbf. Really wish there was some basic instruction like 'keep more than 2m distance if running, slow to a walk if you must pass at 2m from other people'

Lot round here seem to aim to pass at exactly 2m even on a wide path
(will take it to the joggers thread... )

 

[teqniq]

They just can't bring themselves to apologise can they?

 

[Wilf]

It's not clear that anyone in this photo is breaching distancing guidelines. Whether those guidelines are sufficient is another matter.

Yep, this. In fact that photo, as much as you can tell with foreshortening, looks to show that people are managing to observe 2 metre gaps.

 

[klang]

Not sure how this works if your commute looks like this

View attachment 206236


Shut down the station for two days of cleaning every time someone infected goes on a train?

i like how the guy bottom right seizes the moment to roll a quick spliff

 

[weltweit]

..
even the direct contacts, far less contacts of contacts etc, is a task way beyond not only current testing capability, but our likely capability for the foreseeable future.

Hence why it may only be possible after our lockdown period after which there should be far fewer cases to test and trace and isolate.

 

[weltweit]

Yeah, to clarify my own view on this... I think it could potentially be workable. But only off the back of an extended, severe lockdown aimed at getting active cases down as low as possible. And fuck knows if we could maintain that. I doubt it on current evidence. A competent government might be able to though.

I agree with this, the current lockdown to reduce the numbers of infections to tiny amounts followed by test trace and isolate and if it gets away from us a return to lockdown, perhaps only for specific hot spots.

The actual impression I get is that we're basically still following the herd immunity strategy, just with some measures to stop the NHS actually collapsing, but not really with much concern as to the final toll.

I don't agree with this though I think herd immunity has been abandoned, what we are doing at the moment seems to be an attempt to supress the infections by starving the virus of new hosts.

 

[Raheem]

I don't agree with this though I think herd immunity has been abandoned, what we are doing at the moment seems to be an attempt to supress the infections by starving the virus of new hosts.

But it's a bit like the ending to Finding Nemo where they're all in plastic bags in Sydney Harbour. We won't have solved the problem. A herd immunity strategy is what you are following by default if you are not following anything else.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yep, this. In fact that photo, as much as you can tell with foreshortening, looks to show that people are managing to observe 2 metre gaps.

And I can back this up with my experience of being in London parks in the last couple of weeks. The vast majority of people are being very good about social distancing in parks. If anything the behaviour of people in parks is good evidence that this thing is working.

 

[andysays]

Coronavirus: UK death toll tops 10,000

 

[andysays]

Coronavirus: UK death toll tops 10,000

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Lower figure today. I hope that's not just an Easter Sunday effect, but I fear it may be. We may need to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a proper grip on the figures for last week.

 

[Mation]

Sunday Times reckons the government are going to try us to get that tracking app :




Ministers have ordered the creation of an NHS mobile phone app the government hopes will help end the coronavirus lockdown.

The app would allow mobile phones to trace users who have come into contact with infected people, alerting them to get tested.

This would make it possible to start lifting the most stringent social-distancing measures from late next month, ministers hope.



Senior sources say NHSX, the health service’s technology arm, has been working on the app with Google and Apple at “breakneck speed”. The system will use Bluetooth technology to alert those who download the app if they have been in close proximity with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19.

Combined with a vast expansion in testing, which ministers claim will hit 100,000 a day by the end of the month, the app is a central plank in the government’s push to lift the lockdown. “We believe this could be important in helping the country return to normality,” a Whitehall source said.



Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is considering how to incentivise people to install the app. Experts say the “track and trace” concept only works effectively if 60% of people adopt it.
One idea under consideration would mean people being told they could resume normal work and home life if they installed it on their phones.

The details emerged as Lord Evans, the former head of MI5, said technology — similar to the kind intelligence chiefs use to track terrorist suspects — is key to combating the coronavirus. But he warned that it was a “severe intrusion into personal privacy”.
The government will forfeit public trust unless it comes clean about what it is planning and imposes time limits on the use of data, Evans writes in The Sunday Times today.
“People may consider the kind of surveillance needed to keep Covid-19 at bay a price worth paying, but public confidence will only be retained in the longer term if the right controls and accountability are in place,” he writes in


_______
I don't want it. If this comes to pass it will be interesting to see if there is pressure from employers never mind government, to use it

There'd be an information black hole over all the prisons, given that staff can't take their phones in.

 

[weltweit]

Hancock mentioned a tracing app for phones in the No 10 press briefing today.

 

[2hats]

Hancock mentioned a tracing app for phones in the No 10 press briefing today.

Ready to be delivered any day now, just like the 100,000 tests a day were, and the tests for all distributed by Amazon/available in Boots?

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Ready to be delivered any day now, just like the 100,000 tests a day were, and the tests for all distributed by Amazon/available in Boots?

And that ppe so desperately needed...

<broken record>

 

[elbows]

Lower figure today. I hope that's not just an Easter Sunday effect, but I fear it may be. We may need to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a proper grip on the figures for last week.

Yes, although having to wait is a constant feature anyway.

If people remember the FT graph that showed cumulative deaths up to March 27th by reporting date, and then by actual date of death, and my equivalents, here is my latest version:

Its only for deaths in English hospitals. And the fact the green and blue bars become closer and then the same at the end is the reporting delays in effect - over time the blue bars for those dates will continue to grow, but since the green ones are the totals reported on one day in particular, they cannot change later.



There is at least a degree of consistency in terms of how underreported deaths are on a particular day.

As for how this looks in terms of number of deaths per day in hospitals in England, here is the latest version of that, but again we should expect the more recent bars to grow in the coming days, they are artificially low right now due to reporting delays.


I dont know if the last day of the month represents additional reporting issues, but there are no signs of whatever made the numbers on March 31st much lower than days before and after being corrected.

 

[treelover]

Tragic

Proud hospital matron who posed with Boris Johnson loses life to coronavirus

EXCLUSIVE: Tragic Sara Trollope was 'devoted' to her NHS job, and was just months away from retirement when she contracted the killer coronavirus

www.mirror.co.uk

Wonder if he shook her hand?

 

[ska invita]

Ready to be delivered any day now, just like the 100,000 tests a day were, and the tests for all distributed by Amazon/available in Boots?

Yeah I reckon a lot of the stories and announcements are We're Doing Stuff noise and hot air. Got to say something other than how much Johnson is improving.
None of it will come to much any time soon

 

[weltweit]

Ready to be delivered any day now, just like the 100,000 tests a day were, and the tests for all distributed by Amazon/available in Boots?

Hancock got an easy ride again, no questions on testing afaict


eta just 12,000 approx. tests in last 24 hours

 

[agricola]

Hancock mentioned a tracing app for phones in the No 10 press briefing today.

Didn't watch it, but the Guardian reports the following about the app:

Today I wanted to outline the next step: a new NHS app for contact tracing. If you become unwell with the symptoms of coronavirus, you can securely tell this new NHS app and the app will then send an alert anonymously to other app users that you’ve been in significant contact with over the past few days, even before you had symptoms, so that they know and can act accordingly.

All data will be handled according to the highest ethical and security standards, and would only be used for NHS care and research, and we won’t hold it any longer than it’s needed. And as part of our commitment to transparency we’ll be publishing the source code, too.

We’re already testing this app and as we do this we’re working closely with the world’s leading tech companies and renowned experts in digital safety and ethics.”

Surely it would make more sense for the app to tell you who has developed symptoms for it, so you can work out who you've seen since your contact with that person and what action you need to take? This would especially be true for people who still work in big workplaces (like callcentres) where one person getting symptoms might generate alerts to everyone else and make them all think they needed to self isolate.