Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

This report from Scotland includes the sort of vaccine data (cases, hospitalisations and deaths by vaccine status including boosters) I usually draw attention to, but I think there are too many tables and graphs for me to highlight all the info and caveats properly.

Its a good thing the UK had the booster campaign when we did, I'll say that much.

https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11076/22-01-12-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf

 

[brogdale]

Another 398 dead today.

I'm no expert, but I think we're moving on from an Airbus-worth per day on towards a jumbo jet full every day.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Another 398 dead today.

I'm no expert, but I think we're moving on from an Airbus-worth per day on towards a jumbo jet full every day.

They're just mild endemic deaths now though so nothing to worry about.

 

[brogdale]

They're just mild endemic deaths now though so nothing to worry about.

innit?

 

[elbows]

On the 'chuck the word endemic around' front, I wonder how long I'll have the energy to keep picking apart the following sort of comments. All sorts of press picked up on these comments yeterday. Some of the comments from Heymann make some sense and some do not.

For example what the fuck is the point in making this sort of stupid claim, other than to further an agenda too quickly?

That population immunity seems to be keeping the virus and its variants at bay, not causing serious illness or death,” he told Chatham House think tank's online seminar.

“It's causing illness in children, possibly more than it did in the past,” he said. “Children are the only population now where the virus can find a welcome home because they haven't had infection previously … because there's nowhere else that it can transmit in an effort to perpetuate itself.”

What bollocks, as if Omicron has had trouble infecting adults!

Britain 'could be first country to emerge from pandemic', scientist says | The National

Prof David Heymann says high infection and vaccination rates mean UK is now living with Covid

www.thenationalnews.com

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

There will also be a number of people who died of non covid illnesses because they couldn't get to hospital due to pressures from covid I'd have thought.

Someone at work fell seriously ill the other day. Nearly didn't get admitted for this reason but thankfully our GP insisted..... It was not a Manageable in the Carehome type of scenario and the guy is not that old.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

If people have not had the vaccine it's not hesitant, it's not wanting it.
Perhaps some leadership to resolving the staffing crisis might encourage people more than the threat of losing an important job.

What's hesitant then? Getting the vaccine whilst screaming AM HESITANT AF HERE MATE

 

[souljacker]

What's hesitant then? Getting the vaccine whilst screaming AM HESITANT AF HERE MATE

I've always pictured the hesitant ones outside the vaxx centre, umming and aahing, maybe putting a foot in the center before going nope and backing off. A bit like when you are trying to jump off the top board of the local pool.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

On the 'chuck the word endemic around' front, I wonder how long I'll have the energy to keep picking apart the following sort of comments. All sorts of press picked up on these comments yeterday. Some of the comments from Heymann make some sense and some do not.

For example what the fuck is the point in making this sort of stupid claim, other than to further an agenda too quickly?





What bollocks, as if Omicron has had trouble infecting adults!

Britain 'could be first country to emerge from pandemic', scientist says | The National

Prof David Heymann says high infection and vaccination rates mean UK is now living with Covid

www.thenationalnews.com

This tweet relates to those comments.



Huge amount of antibodies in the population but still millions of infections and loads of death.

 

[SpookyFrank]

They're just mild endemic deaths now though so nothing to worry about.

We're just going to have to learn how to live with being dead.

 

[Mation]

It doesn’t make sense - surely if they’re positive they should not be at work?

I'd agree. Positive by lateral flow is positive according to what's detected in the sample as provided at the time, whereas PCR amplifies the sample up to detect what's in there, rather than the original viral load (I think).

Is it not the case that f there's enough of the virus currently (at time of testing) to be detected by lateral flow, then there's enough to be infectious? Does transmissibility decrease over time independently of the amount of virus that can be detected?

 

[gentlegreen]

.

 

[Orang Utan]

I'd agree. Positive by lateral flow is positive according to what's detected in the sample as provided at the time, whereas PCR amplifies the sample up to detect what's in there, rather than the original viral load (I think).

Is it not the case that f there's enough of the virus currently (at time of testing) to be detected by lateral flow, then there's enough to be infectious? Does transmissibility decrease over time independently of the amount of virus that can be detected?

I have no idea. That’s all gobbledygook to me. I rely on the boffins to interpret that for me. I just need to know what’s the right thing to do. I don’t need to understand the science as it just goes in one ear and out the other.

 

[killer b]

I have no idea. That’s all gobbledygook to me. I rely on the boffins to interpret that for me. I just need to know what’s the right thing to do. I don’t need to understand the science as it just goes in one ear and out the other.

the boffins say it's fine to end your isolation after 10 days (unless you're still ill).

 

[Cloo]

Son tested + this morning, wondering if my thoughts about 'might falling infections celebrations be a bit premature given kids have only just gone back to school?' might be borne out. After all, ill or positive testing kids won't have gone in on first week, so school infections are only really going to start kicking in now presumably.

 

[wtfftw]

Son tested + this morning, wondering if my thoughts about 'might falling infections celebrations be a bit premature given kids have only just gone back to school?' might be borne out. After all, ill or positive testing kids won't have gone in on first week, so school infections are only really going to start kicking in now presumably.

Yep. We've had a positive in ftw's class -she's been off anyway as positive LFTs for us mean we haven't been able to take her in.

And seriously. Why can't we do spit tests on kids?

 

[Cloo]

Yep. We've had a positive in ftw's class -she's been off anyway as positive LFTs for us mean we haven't been able to take her in.

And seriously. Why can't we do spit tests on kids?

Yes, haven't heard any more about those for about a year or more ago when they were being tested. Wasn't the idea to check a while class at once and then you'd know if you need individual tests?

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

The LAMP tests only seem to be available for NHS staff or via paid for travel test place.

 

[wtfftw]

I am not looking forward to frequently testing her.

 

[elbows]

It is a shame that spit tests didnt become a huge part of the testing system. I dont know the reasons why, I took part in a home trial of one after the first wave and I never heard any more about it, apart from the thing with NHS staff.

 

[two sheds]

and where are the dogs

 

[elbows]

Covid: People in 'left behind' communities more likely to die

The report's authors call for measures to reduce health inequalities and say action is needed now.

www.bbc.co.uk

People in England's "left behind" communities were 46% more likely to die from Covid-19 than those living in the rest of the country, a study has found.

The report concluded people in these areas worked longer hours and lived shorter lives, with more ill health.

"Left behind" neighbourhoods (LBNs) differ from regular deprived areas by having fewer social and cultural assets, on top of economic problems.

County Durham had by far the highest number of LBNs of any local authority.

As of April 2021, there were 16 LBNs in County Durham. The next highest was Birmingham with nine.

The LBNs are mainly found in the North and Midlands in de-industrialised areas - as well as coastal areas in the South.

The study found:

People living in LBNs were 46% more likely to die from Covid-19 than those in the rest of England and 7% more likely to have died of the virus than those living in regular deprived areas.

Life expectancy for men was 3.7 years fewer than average and three years fewer for women.

People in these neighbourhoods can expect to live 7.5 fewer years in good health than their counterparts in the rest of England.

 

[Orang Utan]

It is a shame that spit tests didnt become a huge part of the testing system. I dont know the reasons why, I took part in a home trial of one after the first wave and I never heard any more about it, apart from the thing with NHS staff.

we got some delivered by mistake at work recently, but they were meant for care homes

 

[elbows]

It doesnt look like daily positive cases officially detected are going to get anywhere close to the huge levels last seen on January 4th (by date of test specimen).

Hospital admissions in England are continuing to plateau a little above and below 2000 per day. This is currently leading to slight falls each day in terms of number of covid patients in hospital beds, but this remains delicately balanced.

Over 300 deaths within 28 days of a positive test have now been reported for 3 days in a row. So far this is translating to a little over 200 deaths per day by date of death. I dont have big claims about how much higher these will go, or exactly when they might change trajectory.

 

[elbows]

teuchter I see the latest per-trust data is on the dashboard and the Kings 'patients in mechanical ventilator beds' numbers went back down compared to when you made your post about this using last weeks data. I havent looked at other trusts yet.

 

[elbows]

Had a slightly better look at the per-trust data.

Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust continues to be the most obvious example of a trust exceeding its previous records for number of covid patients in hospital beds compared to all the previous peaks. But obviously this doesnt reveal the full clinical picture. There are some other examples that have come somewhat close to or equalled previous peaks. Given the amount of attention Bolton received when the Delta wave arrived, I should probably mention that as one to look at in this Omicron wave. And given that some attention has been paid to higher numbers of hospitalisations in children this time around, I shall mention the Birmingham Women's and Children's NHS Foundation Trust as one to look at in that regard.

I continue to be extremely thankful for the booster rollout timing we ended up with in this country.

 

[bimble]

From Monday ,apparently, it will be down to 5 days, the period of isolation after testing positive?

 

[teuchter]

teuchter I see the latest per-trust data is on the dashboard and the Kings 'patients in mechanical ventilator beds' numbers went back down compared to when you made your post about this using last weeks data.

So I see. Which is good.

King's has one of the biggest A&E / critical care departments in London, I believe. Certainly I know that critically injured people from things like RTAs are brought there from a relatively wide area of the southeast of England, including by helicopter. I don't know if this would explain why it would show a blip while other trusts don't. It may be that serious cases from other hospitals end up getting transferred and concentrated there.

 

[elbows]

Yeah Im certainly wary of reading too much into per-trust data since to analyse it properly I would need to study differences in how the NHS configured itself in each wave.

Plus other stuff such as specific hospitals having outbreaks on their wards, which depending on where in the hospital they happened could be expected to make a difference to either admissions (since these include in hospital diagnoses too), patients in beds and patients in intensive care.

I still get very sad when I look back at first wave data for the period after the initial peak and leading up to the start of July 2020. My local hospital and local death statistics still stick out for that period, because a hospital infection situation persisted for months in my local hospital and gave us a first wave pattern that isnt replicated in quite the same way anywhere else

 

[elbows]

From Monday ,apparently, it will be down to 5 days, the period of isolation after testing positive?

Yes although there is some tedious detail that means it is described as 'five full days', you need to test negative on days 5 and 6.

eg see this graphic from the BBC article about the change. I may have more to say when I've seen more official documents as well as the UKHSA justification for this change.

Covid self-isolation in England being cut to five full days

People will be able to end isolation after negative tests on days five and six from Monday.

www.bbc.co.uk